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NZD/USD

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NZD/USD

  • #6,881
  • Jul 22, 2014 1:51am Jul 22, 2014 1:51am
Quoting SammyD
{quote} While the RBNZ is raising interest rates direct intervention would indeed be expensive and a waste in time - basically paddling in circles with OCR paddling one way and intervention the other. This is one of the key reasons there hasn't been any intervention to date as the fourth and final of RBNZs intervention criteria haven't been met (likelihood of success). However... if the RBNZ decides to take its foot of the pedal post a hike this week that effectively pulls the OCR paddle from the water for the next 4-6 months leaving direct intervention...

I think the fact that its the 8th or 9th most traded currency in the world yet its the 55th largest economy (2013 figure) has a large part to play. Most of the money flows are speculative and coming from outside of New Zealand
  • #6,882
  • Jul 22, 2014 1:58am Jul 22, 2014 1:58am
I thing the huge appeal and much of the volume with the NZD/USD may be due to the huge swap, makes for a great carry trade.
  • #6,883
  • Jul 22, 2014 4:33am Jul 22, 2014 4:33am
USD CAD Looks like a good short here. There are no interest in people wanting to go long on USD/CAD. All commodity players should take a look. See it back down to 1.063 Very fast.
  • #6,884
  • Jul 22, 2014 7:38am Jul 22, 2014 7:38am
The pair reversed from its 0.8720 horizontal resistance and is likely to re-test 0.8642, breaking which 0.8610 can become reality. However, a break of 0.8690 can refuel to test 0.8720. Though, downside is more expected than the up-move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #6,885
  • Jul 22, 2014 7:41am Jul 22, 2014 7:41am
AUD is going to pop right through 94. Commodity will rally this week. Its hard to admit it, but the shorts are having hard time paying interest. In the long run I am bearish on them. Tough but very evident trades.
  • #6,886
  • Jul 22, 2014 9:02am Jul 22, 2014 9:02am
Statistically NZDUSD has done very rare feat in the last hour (15-16h european time, 9-10h east US, 23-24h AUS east coast).

Namely, all 12 of 5-minute candles were red (at least according to interactive chart by ForexFactory). Remarkable.

Before those 12, there were 6 consecutive green 5-minute candles.

EDIT: 14th consecutive red 5min candle.
  • #6,887
  • Jul 22, 2014 9:08am Jul 22, 2014 9:08am
Quoting yeniful
long 500,000 nzd/usd @.86760 Looking at .8700 to .87100 area to close long trade
didn't quite get my 25-30 pips but 18 pips is just fine.
  • #6,888
  • Jul 22, 2014 9:04pm Jul 22, 2014 9:04pm
Since NZD fails to break 50MA, i'm going to long now

have a green pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nz.png Size: 47 KB
  • #6,889
  • Jul 23, 2014 12:21am Jul 23, 2014 12:21am
Quoting Celinee
Since NZD fails to break 50MA, i'm going to long now have a green pips {image}
So, NZD has a big announcement tomorrow...If to continue to raise raise or stay put with the price pressures. The Feds themselves are playing roulette on when the US will hike their rates. Either way they are only apart by 3-6 months. Eventually USD will get firmer. Usually the strongest performers get hurt the most. I would be a bit concerned going long here, although the carry trade is very tempting.
  • #6,890
  • Jul 23, 2014 12:37am Jul 23, 2014 12:37am
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} So, NZD has a big announcement tomorrow...If to continue to raise raise or stay put with the price pressures. The Feds themselves are playing roulette on when the US will hike their rates. Either way they are only apart by 3-6 months. Eventually USD will get firmer. Usually the strongest performers get hurt the most. I would be a bit concerned going long here, although the carry trade is very tempting.
Welcome here Kingleeny
Good Luck for your trading
now a perfect time to long..
  • #6,891
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:35am Jul 23, 2014 3:35am
H4 has a double bottom possible setup to hit some longs.
  • #6,892
  • Jul 23, 2014 8:09am Jul 23, 2014 8:09am
The NZDUSD kept failing to surpass descending trend line resistance near 0.8690, signaling a re-test of 0.8660.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #6,893
  • Jul 23, 2014 1:29pm Jul 23, 2014 1:29pm
Rate news at 5pm
70% chance increase and to me that was big enough that I got out 60% of my shorts in profit and have only 40% previous orders
Positioning myself for Increase and Spike
Limit shorts 2x 88 2x 8840
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,894
  • Jul 23, 2014 1:52pm Jul 23, 2014 1:52pm
I wonder what will happen here if rates really hike. Since this has shown a tremendous correlation with silver/gold and gold/silver's about to fall in my opinion..
Will the correlation break here? will this pull metals up? short term or medium term?

Here's what i did for tonight. trailling stop on my gold short.
NZD already bought but now added a trailing stop placing it at 0,8856 offer's side.
TP set, not quite sure if it's the best one though i just hope i don't mess up this trade lol
  • #6,895
  • Jul 23, 2014 1:54pm Jul 23, 2014 1:54pm
I agree @Davit, in analysis it seems like interest rate decisions had bullish effects on NZD pairs.
  • #6,896
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:58pm Jul 23, 2014 3:58pm
rate news in 2 mins ​
  • #6,897
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:01pm Jul 23, 2014 4:01pm
drop as expected.. nzdusd 0.8633
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #6,898
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:03pm Jul 23, 2014 4:03pm
Quoting eqshack
drop as expected.. nzdusd 0.8633
How is a drop expected when interest rate rises? Swap increases...
  • #6,899
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:05pm Jul 23, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting barrett
{quote} How is a drop expected when interest rate rises? Swap increases...
Over recent months, export prices for dairy and timber have fallen, and these will reduce primary sector incomes over the coming year. With the exchange rate yet to adjust to weakening commodity prices, the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall.





i take it as an hint


yes swap increases but its more possible that NZ will intervene and ppl dont want to risk to add longs from this level.So they will buy from lower levels ( so we go down first ..where we see suitable level for buy )
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #6,900
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:08pm Jul 23, 2014 4:08pm
I placed some Longs to earn which are underwater now. Should i bear loss or should i wait?
Please advice.
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