Fantastic short on EURAUD. BE for now.
Update: USDCHF still going strong.
Update: USDCHF still going strong.
james16 Chart Thread
- #131,548
- Jul 23, 2014 8:21am Jul 23, 2014 8:21am
If bullish on usdjpy check nokjpy it has better PA picture on D and W TF Sorry replying from my tablet. Ill post pictures later{quote}
Thanks for shariang! I will check em out
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
- #131,549
- Jul 23, 2014 9:24am Jul 23, 2014 9:24am
{quote} I dont want to be mean or anything but do you think that AUD trade worked due to that swing low mini pinbar or the AUD news that went in the direction of your position ;-) Be careful... Cheers, Stephen
Am i missing something here ,what should i be careful of?
- #131,550
- Jul 23, 2014 11:48am Jul 23, 2014 11:48am
{quote} I dont want to be mean or anything but do you think that AUD trade worked due to that swing low mini pinbar or the AUD news that went in the direction of your position ;-) Be careful... Cheers, Stephen
This trade was triggered and well into profit 12 hours prior to the CPI news announcement. See my chart below which was taken almost 14 hours prior to the annoucement.
I understand your thinking of a "swing low mini pinbar". By and large, this really only applies to reversal trades (i.e. large PA, significant S/R, space, blah blah and all the rest of it). However, I am willing to take "small PA, in traffic" when a consolidation pattern is formed (flag, pennant), followed by a breakout and then a retest of an S/R-consolidation border confluent area. I call them cBORTs (consolidation-breakout-retests).
PA in this context is very powerful! This is my favourite set-up because it does lead to some significant moves. In my own backtesting (10 years on 10 pairs), cBORT pinbars have a higher success rate than reversal trades (i.e. large PA, important S/R, space, blah blah). In my own forward testing (1 year of data, 45 instruments), cBORTs are my most profitable and a reason why I'm able to take the next year off and travel with my wife and take up trading full time.
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
- #131,555
- Edited 1:26pm Jul 23, 2014 1:00pm | Edited 1:26pm
{quote} I don't look at news. I only look at PA and SR. Had no idea there was any AUD news. Am i missing something here ,what should i be careful of?
Here is a link that may help you:
http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~jml/decal/techanalysis.pdf
"A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of the company. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any given time, a stock's price reflects everything that has or could affect the company - including fundamental factors. Technical analysts believe that the company's fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a particular stock in the market. "
{quote} I don't look at news. I only look at PA and SR. Had no idea there was any AUD news. Am i missing something here ,what should i be careful of?
It's all psychology...
{quote} News had nothing to do with the success of this trade LamerTrader. I took the same set-up on 6H. This trade was triggered and well into profit 12 hours prior to the CPI news announcement. See my chart below which was taken almost 14 hours prior to the annoucement.{image} I understand your thinking of a "swing low mini pinbar". By and large, this really only applies to reversal trades (i.e. large PA, significant S/R, space, blah blah and all the rest of it). However, I am willing to take "small PA, in traffic" when a consolidation pattern...
I also trade very similar setups - (but the horizontal version) - i dont use 6H confirmation, cause they lagg. I rather use lvl 2 volume. But I guess it doesnt matter what one uses until it makes money hehe
Cheers,
Stephen
It's all psychology...
