Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,062
- Jul 21, 2014 5:10am Jul 21, 2014 5:10am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
{quote} A clear lower high in and around the LO when a reversal might be expected. For ease of ref I have shown the lower high on the 5 min chart (5 min cci 14 = 1 min cci 70). So a lower high that occurs when 1 min cci 70 hits -100, or the lower high that follows the -100 getting hit for the first time would be the trigger to start looking for a trade. Here the entry is about 7 pips earlier than when the 1 min cci210 -100 is hit. You need to research and decide if this is appropriate for you. NB the 5 min cci14 has just hit +100 so you should be...
- #1,069
- Edited 5:48pm Jul 22, 2014 5:37pm | Edited 5:48pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Clive you should know that i always read through this thread each morning before i check out my Emails... Thats how powerful it is to me!
Thanks for the kind words its very much appreciated and I'm glad you are getting something from it, I am too for sure.
I am having far more success recently with my demo account see report below for last 4 days trading. It is up about 50% since last Thursday when I started with $5,000 in my demo. Would share on explorer but having some issues with my passwords but will sort it shortly.
The biggest reason for my change in fortune is I will look for continuation trades with the trend as long as the price action confirms it and I have qualifying ABCD entries all the way. This is the London breakout trade setup for me. But the biggest reason for my change of fortunes is I now look to sell the overbought 15min CCI and buy the oversold 15 min CCI when its gone over the 200 level. But I don't just say, over 200 ok lets sell!! No I wait for signs that its reversing then jump on board as soon as I can with a nice quality ABCD move.
This has led to entries at wave 3 and therefore bigger winners. Also I believe these will setup for winning trades far more often than our continuation trades. About 70% of the time. But don't get me wrong if I see a London breakout move eg the 1 min trending strongly and the 15 min CCI remaining over the 100 levels, I will trade it but I'm just aware how hard they are to catch going forward, also that more often than not overbought and sold 15 min CCI's reverse on us.
I have noticed how often a strong move one way, counter D Mr V., will be followed by a strong move the other way. Take todays move by EURAUD it started with a strong move up and the 15 min CCI going overbought +200 level. Notice the clear market structure with clear HHHL's every push up clears the previous push up, this is a sign of a strong trend and we should trade these high quality ABCD moves.
However when it ends we should look to sell it asap at the earliest clear opportunity as follows.
Notice the drive down that takes out the last HL in the uptrend??? Then the failed drive up that follows immediately after?? This is a sure sign to start looking for sell entries, eg sell +100 14 CCI signals. The best sell entries are after a strong drive down clearing the last drive down then a clean pullback as labeled but any of the previous CCI turns would of been fine. This 2nd chart is a continuation of the EURAUD trade from the chart above it gives us plenty of quality entries on its way down, moving about 75 pips in total.
Now that we have established a couple of early entries how do we know when to hold and when to fold??? How do we identify we have caught a strong move??? Just watch the price action also we can seek confirmation from our 15 min CCI staying oversold for a long time trading around the -100 level. But without doubt we should watch the quality of our ABCD moves. A quality ABCD move starts with a strong AB leg clearing the previous move down (CD leg) then the BC leg (our pullback) mustn't exceed point A. Look for the pullbacks to be clean and clear. Initial stops should be behind A to ensure room for trade to breathe but not allowing it to exceed A.
If you get a failed drive down AB leg then be wary of adding and wait to ensure the drive back up does not exceed A. Notice how clear the LH's are, they have very clear line of red candles pouring down from them. I call these our MR's (Major resistance) levels its where the market last supported our drive down, if taken out the tend is over. Notice how well they hold in a strong trend, even after a failed drive down these MR's are not passed!!! This is a sure fire sign we have a well supported move on our hands.
The opposite of course applies in an uptrend look for MS's (major support) levels, lines of green candles, again where the up move is well supported these MS levels will hold. See chart below for uptrend example.
I think its really important when trading any timeframe to know exactly where you are in the trend and more importantly to know how to identify a strong trend and also of course to know when its coming to an end so its time to close out and bank your profits. To sum up watch for the strong trending signals eg MR and MS holding , each new drive stronger than the last. And watch out for failed drives , MR or MS failing to hold, market structure breaking up then look to close out quickly before all the others beat you to it!!!
I will try to trade the next couple of LO's and NYO's and post as I go but sometimes it gets a bit tricky, even thou its only demo I treat it as real and sweat just as much!!!
Hope that helps, catch up later.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,072
- Jul 23, 2014 3:29am Jul 23, 2014 3:29am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
{quote} Hi nogames If you have a close look at the first chart in Clives post above. As he says the first sign of a possible turn is the failure to make HH's HL's. You were looking at cross through cci210 0 level as a first sign. On that chart the difference between the break through 0 level and as Clive has marked the best entry (that is 100% per the rules system trade) is a few pips, that's often how it is. The balance of entries seem to be exactly as per system.
These are the trades i took this morning. I got one winner on EURCAD and two losses on EURJPY and GBPUSD..
Please help me analise and advise me how best my entries and exits.
On the GBPUSD & EURJPY the other second horizontal lines highlight where my stoploss was hit. On the GU, my trailing stop was not activated i think due to my poor internet connection.
Await your advise...thanks!
- #1,075
- Jul 23, 2014 5:23am Jul 23, 2014 5:23am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,077
- Jul 23, 2014 1:06pm Jul 23, 2014 1:06pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Thanks for the clarification Vantage. These are the trades i took this morning. I got one winner on EURCAD and two losses on EURJPY and GBPUSD.. Please help me analise and advise me how best my entries and exits. On the GBPUSD & EURJPY the other second horizontal lines highlight where my stoploss was hit. On the GU, my trailing stop was not activated i think due to my poor internet connection. Await your advise...thanks!{image}{image}{image}
Hi nogames2014
Had a closer look at your trades and I think theres a couple of reasons why your EURJPY and GBPUSD lost today. Firstly you aren't entering as I would using the 14 CCI and secondly for me your stops are too tight, both these trades would of gone into profit apart from your tight stops. Are you using a trailing stop EA of some type??? If so that could be the problem I usually wait for my trades to go up about 5 pips before going to BE and sometimes if its wave 5 I might even go to BE at 3 pips.
Anyway just to clear it up thought I would run through a typical setup that I'm looking for nowadays and my entry technique which I think is very good when I don't get inpatient and jump in!!!
Look at chart below of GBPCAD a perfect setup to look at together, I've hand picked it because it is so good and fits our system perfectly. It's a nice 5 wave elliot move too. Ok so from left to right.
1) The 15 min CCI goes oversold to -300 level and more be prepared for a possible reversal trade setup.
2) There's a nice smooth drive up of about 25 pips which takes out last LH and crosses the 100LWMA. This is Wave 1 of the new uptrend and our first AB leg.
3) The BC leg (wave 2) pulls back to the 100LWMA so a nice break and retest of the 100LWMA entry. Now I want to explain my actual entry method here, notice how the 14 CCI goes oversold to over -100, I think we should only take the CCI 's that pullback to at least the -/+100 levels as this gets us away from the last drive up or last HH. I have made terrible entries by going in too early when its more like a breakout entry of the last HH and I hate those entries with a vengence!! They always mess up for me. Always best to wait for a decent pullback after a 25 pip push like our AB move here so that I have room to get to BE before price hits our B level again. A qualifying ABCD move must have a clear push up/down in front of it in other words the AB move must be strong, I like to see it clearly take out the previous push up or down.
My actual entry is to see the 14 CCI diversifying from the pullback this shows that the momentum is reversing and price will hopefully follow. I then wait for HA candles to change colour to green, this is my signal candle, then place a pending buy stop 1 or 2 pips above that green HA candle. It will either get hit or price will carry on pulling back a bit further then wait for next green HA and place pending order above it. I continue to do this until either the pending order gets hit or the price goes below point A in which case the ABCD set up is invalid and all entries are off!!!
I usually have an emergency stop of 10 pips but will close out earlier if trade doesn't go to plan. If you wait for a good pullback using the 100 CCI signal then you could place stop below last low but I don't often bother just keep an eye on that level and if it breaks then close out manually.
One thing I must mention about this first entry is that its the one that I am happy to take but Mr V. and pres78 consider this as a none system trade as the 15 min CCI has not gone over +100 level. However I'm happy to take them as long as there is a very clear push up in front of it and its a break and retest of a key level. Either the 100LWMA or quite often it will be a break and retest of the last LH in the down trend. If it looks messy or like the reversal is not going to happen don't take it, wait for the first clean setup ABCD.
The main reason I like this entry is its wave 3 of the new trend and where the meat of the new move will come from.
3) The next drive up is our new ab leg and wave 3 so we can expect a nice smooth pullback wave 4 and the final wave 5 entry same as before, 14 CCI oversold -100 level, CCI diversifies from price, first green HA candle is signal candle etc etc. Both entries 2 and 3 are Mr V and pres78 system entries which is fine if this trade is the NYO breakout trade but more often than not these trades fizzle out after wave 5 and in fact present us with another sell trade back down again. Which in fact is exactly what happened here price crossed back down over the 100LWMA and presented some nice 100 CCI sell signals.
4) Point d is a bit subjective but as it hits a BRN 1.8300 I would probably close out all trades here but if there was no BRN then the close should be one of the following.
5) Hold until the 100LWMA changes direction eg 100lwma changes colour or trail all open trades up behind each HL until stopped out.
Hope that clears up the entry system That I'm using nogames2014 here and will be going forward, any questions fire away.
I am even contemplating trying to catch wave 1 by watching for a failed drive down with a bit of divergence then take a quick entry get to BE asap 3 pips max and sit back and see what develops. Bit risky but as long as 15 min CCI and 1 min CCI are seriously oversold, then we should get a considerable move back even if its not the actual reversal. I think its worth a quick shot. I will only be looking at this after a strong move one way or the other.
Thats about it for me hope thats helped..........
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,078
- Jul 24, 2014 1:23am Jul 24, 2014 1:23am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Every morning I'm looking for either continuation trades eg London Breakout or reversals after a strong move. Last night there was an NZD news release about their cash rate increase so very weak NZD overnight. I look at my morning TTindy to see where we are and go from there.
Looking at it this morning I look at the 5mins to see what happened over night , all NZD pairs, this is where my reversals might come from. I look at the 1 min to see whats happening now, and where my continuations might come from , EUR weakness. I just monitor the indy all morning checking out the top 4 until I see a ABCD setup I like the look of.
Lets see how it goes this morning.
Looking at it this morning I look at the 5mins to see what happened over night , all NZD pairs, this is where my reversals might come from. I look at the 1 min to see whats happening now, and where my continuations might come from , EUR weakness. I just monitor the indy all morning checking out the top 4 until I see a ABCD setup I like the look of.
Lets see how it goes this morning.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,079
- Jul 24, 2014 1:27am Jul 24, 2014 1:27am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,080
- Jul 24, 2014 1:52am Jul 24, 2014 1:52am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!