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Looking for Real Trading Method

  • #661
  • Jul 16, 2014 11:53pm Jul 16, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Today's draw down is $15. At one point it was about $18, then a full recovery and then again $15. The account equity is now $2,240. Have started building a new portfolio after cashing the previous one. {image}
Closed this new portfolio on maturity. Net assets now at $2,260. This portfolio had a very short life.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #662
  • Jul 17, 2014 12:04am Jul 17, 2014 12:04am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} All trades matured at just above $2,250. No position open. Will now start a new crop of trades. Today's draw down (maximum unrealized profit at any given point of time) was $25. The Net Asset Value went down to $2,225 but then bounced back. Closed trades following the rules. The rules say I can open new trades any time I want, but I am waiting to see how London reacts before starting afresh. It really does not matter from where and at what level I start entering trades, but I want some basis to start with. Below this is another account,...
The second testing account is now at $138, up $2. I wont change any trades in this account until it shows profit. This is what author of this method suggests.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #663
  • Jul 17, 2014 9:30pm Jul 17, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Closed this new portfolio on maturity. Net assets now at $2,260. This portfolio had a very short life. {image}
Today was not a very good day. Two more short-term portfolios opened and closed to take the account balance from $2,260 to $2,295 with a very little draw down of about $5 or so, but the third (current) portfolio shows a draw down of about $15. The account equity now is around $2,280 as compared to $2,260 yesterday, a net gain of $20.

I don't like the current group of running trades because these may take several days or even weeks to show profit. That means, I will have to "do something" but have very little margin left in the account (about 50%).
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #664
  • Jul 17, 2014 9:48pm Jul 17, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} The second testing account is now at $138, up $2. I wont change any trades in this account until it shows profit. This is what author of this method suggests. {image}
This other account is hanging between $139 and $140. This portfolio of 13 trades was balanced until this morning but this balance got disturbed and I had to add another trade to re-balance it. I am not supposed to touch these trades too often.
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  • #665
  • Edited 2:01am Jul 18, 2014 1:19am | Edited 2:01am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} ... I am using a bit advanced version of this method than what I described above. This advanced feature helps a trader in reducing the risk. My aim is to see if the inventor is right in saying that one could eliminate the risk altogether. Following the instructions, I am not supposed to close certain losing positions but have no restriction if I want to open or close other positions. ...". {image}
Hello Chicky,

I'm interested in almost your posts about thinking of Forex trading. I'm building small portfolio and some questions always in my mind, one of these is "how one could eliminate the risk altogether"

Could you pls show me a actual detail example that you already resolved "one could eliminate the risk altogether" ?

Thanks,
Haynes
  • #666
  • Edited 7:16am Jul 18, 2014 7:00am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting Haynes6EU
{quote} Hello Chicky, I'm interested in almost your posts about thinking of Forex trading. I'm building small portfolio and some questions always in my mind, one of these is "how one could eliminate the risk altogether" Could you pls show me a actual detail example that you already resolved "one could eliminate the risk altogether" ? Thanks, Haynes
There are two basic things in this method of a trader who I met here on FF. The first thing is you take moderate risk and then keep on reducing this risk using portfolio management tools. The second thing is knowing how this market moves. You cannot eliminate the risk altogether, no one can, but you balance your trades like a bookmaker to make your book. Last night I balanced my trades of the above shown portfolio and closed it at $2,310. Currently away from my workstation will post details later. Max draw down was $10. You see balancing required taking more risk only to again limit it later. If you fail to balance will need to balance again and again more risk until someday you lose it all.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #667
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:25am Jul 18, 2014 7:25am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} There are two basic things in this method of a trader who I met here on FF. The first thing is you take moderate risk and then keep on reducing this risk using portfolio management tools. The second thing is knowing how this market moves. You cannot eliminate the risk altogether, no one can, but you balance your trades like a bookmaker to make your book. Last night I balanced my trades of the above shown portfolio and closed it at $2,310. Currently away from my workstation will post details later. Max draw down was $10. You see balancing...
I use the term "balancing" because it is not pure martingale but has limited element of it. You either put more money or more time but according to the author it gives profit in the end. So far I find him right with good returns in reasonable time and with sane risk.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #668
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:41am Jul 18, 2014 7:41am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This other account is hanging between $139 and $140. This portfolio of 13 trades was balanced until this morning but this balance got disturbed and I had to add another trade to re-balance it. I am not supposed to touch these trades too often. {image}
Amazing. This portfolio is now getting close to maturity. The only thing I did was to take a trade further reducing the risk. Lets see how it ends the week. It took about a month of waiting to see if it turns around and seems it did. Will post picture later as I am away from my computer at the moment
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #669
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:06am Jul 18, 2014 8:06am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Amazing. This portfolio is now getting close to maturity. The only thing I did was to take a trade further reducing the risk. Lets see how it ends the week. It took about a month of waiting to see if it turns around and seems it did. Will post picture later as I am away from my computer at the moment
The portfolio matured but I did not close it because I am on my cell phone and won't be able to post a complete picture. However took a snap shot on my cell phone. Lets see where it goes from here until I get back to my computer.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #670
  • Jul 18, 2014 9:16am Jul 18, 2014 9:16am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I use the term "balancing" because it is not pure martingale but has limited element of it. You either put more money or more time but according to the author it gives profit in the end. So far I find him right with good returns in reasonable time and with sane risk.

Hi Chicky,

I have a little exp in Forex trading environment. Harmonic could be a good balanced or unbalanced view situation in my opinion.
As you said, two basic things:

1. Balance your trades like a bookmaker to make your book
2. How this market moves?

I know it will take a long time to gain knowledge about two things above and I also think that progress would be interesting . Your detail example will be a good food for my mind

Thanks,
Haynes
  • #671
  • Edited 7:54pm Jul 18, 2014 7:16pm | Edited 7:54pm
Quoting Haynes6EU
{quote} Hi Chicky, I have a little exp in Forex trading environment. Harmonic could be a good balanced or unbalanced view situation in my opinion. As you said, two basic things: 1. Balance your trades like a bookmaker to make your book 2. How this market moves? I know it will take a long time to gain knowledge about two things above and I also think that progress would be interesting . Your detail example will be a good food for my mind Thanks, Haynes
Mastering both these things require a lot of experience in different market situations, needless to say there would be cost to pay in form of losses.

This may help.

Market situations - One can categorize different market situations in the following way and may observe how it behaves in an overall scenario of global economic framework and latest developments in political, climatic or economic fronts
1. Session opens and closes (including few minutes before an open and few minutes after a close)
2. News break
3. Hitting/nearing a key technical or historically important level
4. Breaking a technical or historically important level
6. Last day of the week (Friday)/ Month end / quarter end / year end
6. Changing correlation with gold and among the pairs
7. When one session is closed and others are open for holiday in a region/country
8. Holiday session (Last two weeks of December and first two weeks of January)

Bookmaking
1. Deciding average size of the trades, risk per trade, reward per trade, maximum number of trades that account can carry. Keeping trade sizes as small as possible is the key because one can always add or remove trades from the portfolio with changing situations and can trade on a reasonable time frame (not too short - I suggest Daily or 4H)
2. First trade will always have maximum risk, then take subsequent trades in such a way as to minimize this risk. However, you can also add to the risk if first trade shows profit. There are several tools available to minimize this risk.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #672
  • Edited 8:41pm Jul 18, 2014 8:00pm | Edited 8:41pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Mastering both these things require a lot of experience in different market situations, needless to say there would be cost to pay in form of losses. This may help. Market situations - One can categorize different market situations in the following way and may observe how it behaves in an overall scenario of global economic framework and latest developments in political, climatic or economic fronts 1. Session opens and closes (including few minutes before an open and few minutes after a close) 2. News break 3. Hitting/nearing a key technical...
As much I hate, but have to admit that I cannot provide an example how it works for a variety of reasons. This is a very hard earned possession not open to brokers or commercial traders who get their cuts from working with OPM. I did my homework for about five years only on this method alone which was passed on to me half cooked. I am returning this favor in the same way, but this time, it is more than half cooked.

This thread is about searching for a real method that really works and I am sure there are several of them. After all, I was doing something before this method. I am just trying to turn on the lights in a dark room that houses many new traders.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #673
  • Jul 19, 2014 4:27am Jul 19, 2014 4:27am
chicky,

several tools to reduce risk:

first trade maximum risk, subsequent trades to minimize risk.........

could you tell me more about this?

thanks
  • #674
  • Jul 19, 2014 9:59am Jul 19, 2014 9:59am
Quoting yonnie
chicky, several tools to reduce risk: first trade maximum risk, subsequent trades to minimize risk......... could you tell me more about this? thanks
1. Close 50% if it shows profit
2. Move sl to BE if it shows profit
3. Combination of the above
4. Partial hedge
5. Narrow down sl after initial spike if playing at news break
6. Increase TP
7. Keep on deleting trades if it nears sl, etc
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #675
  • Jul 19, 2014 11:12am Jul 19, 2014 11:12am
^ Seems like this method requires a lot of judgement, what if your judgement sucks
  • #676
  • Jul 19, 2014 11:57am Jul 19, 2014 11:57am
Quoting MCRotter
^ Seems like this method requires a lot of judgement, what if your judgement sucks
This whole universe runs on certain basic principles therefore never goes wrong. Same is true for every profession based on science or art. Basic principles of science are laws of nature while basic principles of art are set by man. Trading is an art. If your decisions are based on certain principles you don't have to worry. You can choose your rules the way you like but they should not be inconsistent from the basic principles .
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #677
  • Jul 19, 2014 12:12pm Jul 19, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This whole universe runs on certain basic principles therefore never goes wrong. Same is true for every profession based on science or art. Basic principles of science are laws of nature while basic principles of art are set by man. Trading is an art. If your decisions are based on certain principles you don't have to worry. You can choose your rules the way you like but they should not be inconsistent from the basic principles .
What timeframe is a Tick Chart? Can there be a tick candle of zero movement? If yes, how come? Can there be a Japanese Candle on a tick chart ?

you need to look at the market and everything in it with a blank mind
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #678
  • Jul 21, 2014 7:14pm Jul 21, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Today was not a very good day. Two more short-term portfolios opened and closed to take the account balance from $2,260 to $2,295 with a very little draw down of about $5 or so, but the third (current) portfolio shows a draw down of about $15. The account equity now is around $2,280 as compared to $2,260 yesterday, a net gain of $20. I don't like the current group of running trades because these may take several days or even weeks to show profit. That means, I will have to "do something" but have very little margin left in the account (about...
Closed the portfolio at $2,330, about $50 higher. Started building a new one . Will post pic later. Max drawdown was $7.00
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #679
  • Jul 21, 2014 7:32pm Jul 21, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} What timeframe is a Tick Chart? Can there be a tick candle of zero movement? If yes, how come? Can there be a Japanese Candle on a tick chart ? you need to look at the market and everything in it with a blank mind
good questions for those who seek the truth
As Above, So Below
  • #680
  • Edited 11:42pm Jul 21, 2014 11:26pm | Edited 11:42pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Closed the portfolio at $2,330, about $50 higher. Started building a new one . Will post pic later. Max drawdown was $7.00
Here is the pic.

The most important thing in a portfolio is to keep it Low Beta. Means, if market makes a rapid and big move, whether in favor or against you, your portfolio should not follow the market as quick. This can be achieved by keeping a balanced portfolio. Why? because we do not want spikes and crazy moves to eliminate us.
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