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Looking for Real Trading Method

  • #621
  • Jul 4, 2014 2:55am Jul 4, 2014 2:55am
Quoting Kuat
better than a loser with a loud mouth but no money.. sadly..all the trash talk.. sums up to a fail demo trader or one that made dollars...
u made dollars? u print dollars?u earn dollars?from who? u steal get dollars from who?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #622
  • Jul 4, 2014 7:44pm Jul 4, 2014 7:44pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I studied Matka or Sataa in great detail only to find out that no matter how you play it, odds are always in favor of the bookmakers. Then I studied Roulette, Lottos, Wheel of Fortune (Phuntri), Dart, Horse Racing, Sports Betting, various card games (especially Black Jack and Flash or Teen Pati), etc. Noted that one can group these gambles into two distinct categories. 1) The ones that offer fixed risk and reward (I call them Fixed Rate Gambles), and 2) The ones in which rewards keeps on varying till the end (I call them Variable Rate Gambles)....
After this experience, the focus of research shifted to gambling games that have variable rewards. Horse betting was my favorite not only because it offered a research opportunity but also because my family was one the very reputed among race goers because my grand-father was the founder member of National Jocky Club of my home country and we maintained a stable of about 20 horses ............ most of them thoroughbred and won most of the time. My grandfather was a very good horse trainer, so good that he wall nicknamed Magician. Meantime I obtained a professional qualification in finance that made me study stock market. To me, stock market was a kind of variable rate gambling. This is where I learned several trading skills and got some knowledge of how market behaves. Then I moved to forex trading and now considering going into options trading.

I never traded with a lot of money as this learning process never came to a level where I could feel comfortable. Then someone guided me to a logical method that made sense to me. I restricted my research mianly on this method.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #623
  • Jul 5, 2014 3:24am Jul 5, 2014 3:24am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} After this experience, the focus of research shifted to gambling games that have variable rewards. Horse betting was my favorite not only because it offered a research opportunity but also because my family was one the very reputed among race goers because my grand-father was the founder member of National Jocky Club of my home country and we maintained a stable of about 20 horses ............ most of them thoroughbred and won most of the time. My grandfather was a very good horse trainer, so good that he wall nicknamed Magician. Meantime...
Why stop just when it gets interesting?

My dad came home form the track once--before I was born. He was crest fallen, having lost his paycheck at the track. Mom said "don't you EVER go to the track again - without ME!"
It turns out that while working as a waitress in Saratoga Springs (big track town in the U.S.A.) she dated a professional horse race gambler, who taught her a thing or two about playing the horses.

After that, once a month they went to the track at Belmont and never came home with less money than when they went. Dad may have been chagrined but at that time, we could use the money.

Good Old Mom...
  • #624
  • Jul 5, 2014 6:58am Jul 5, 2014 6:58am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} After this experience, the focus of research shifted to gambling games that have variable rewards. Horse betting was my favorite not only because it offered a research opportunity but also because my family was one the very reputed among race goers because my grand-father was the founder member of National Jocky Club of my home country and we maintained a stable of about 20 horses ............ most of them thoroughbred and won most of the time. My grandfather was a very good horse trainer, so good that he wall nicknamed Magician. Meantime...
love where this is going... refreshing change for these forums... please carry on sir!
tradewith60
  • #625
  • Jul 6, 2014 4:18am Jul 6, 2014 4:18am
i google on variable rate gambling and came across this link
http://persephonemagazine.com/2014/0...reinforcement/
im a dog man...i was trained to countertrade when seeing momentum divergence and seeing some patterns
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #626
  • Edited 11:16pm Jul 6, 2014 11:05pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} After this experience, the focus of research shifted to gambling games that have variable rewards. Horse betting was my favorite not only because it offered a research opportunity but also because my family was one of the very reputed among race goers because my grand-father was the founder member of National Jocky Club of my home country and we maintained a stable of about 20 horses ............ most of them thoroughbred and won most of the time. My grandfather was a very good horse trainer, so good that he was nicknamed Magician. Meantime...
This method recognizes only this basic thing that market keeps on moving up and down. This doesn't mean market is bound to come back to any level it has earlier crossed or will hit any predetermined level in the future ........................... This method is based on simple fact that this market will keep on moving up and down. It does not recognize supports, resistances, trends, consolidations, ranges, breaks, retraces, fibs, emas, smas, pivots, ppzs, higher highs, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, h&s, bbs, bats, butterflies ....................... and for that matter also fruitflies, houseflies, dragons or UFOs, etc. This method does not believe in any trading myths. Like let winners run and cut your losses down, trend is a friend, etc. This method is away from common trading tactics like finding something that happens more than 50% of the time and live happily everafter or pyramiding or martingaling or ......................whatever. This method has no concept of long-term trading, day trading or scalping. Using this method does not require waiting for an open, close, news release, etc. However, requires watching the trades during volatile times for trade management purposes. It is fun to watch smaller timeframes, but this method places all trades on either Daily or Weekly timeframe.This method requires very little screen time. No problem if you have no time to check the market for days.

........ to be continued ............
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #627
  • Jul 6, 2014 11:49pm Jul 6, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This method recognizes only this basic thing that market keeps on moving up and down. This doesn't mean market is bound to come back to any level it has earlier crossed or will hit any predetermined level in the future ........................... This method is based on simple fact that this market will keep on moving up and down. It does not recognize supports, resistances, trends, consolidations, ranges, breaks, retraces, fibs, emas, smas, pivots, ppzs, higher highs, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, h&s, bbs, bats, butterflies ..........................
Is this a holy grail system? ............. definitely not, but very close to one. (A Holy Grail system is the one which has no chance of loss but good chances of gains).
It is a general (also logical) believe that there is no such thing as zero risk or no loss. Every trade under this system has a chance of loss. The author of this system recommended initial 1% risk and 2% reward. When I say "Initial", it means 1% risk at the time of taking a trade but he has devised a technique that gradually reduces this risk. According to the inventor of this method, this risk can be brought to zero or near zero. I agree with him that risk could be significantly reduced but after five long years of research still not convinced that risk can be brought to zero or near zero. But he insists that his method can bring risk to zero. I argued with him on this but he remained on his words. I don't say he is wrong, but it is only that my testing of his method has not yet confirmed his claim. I am in the process of confirming this claim and all my testing right now is focused on this. I am quite satisfied with rest of the features of this method, including a good return within a reasonable time.

......... to be continued ..............
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #628
  • Jul 7, 2014 1:29am Jul 7, 2014 1:29am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This method recognizes only this basic thing that market keeps on moving up and down. This doesn't mean market is bound to come back to any level it has earlier crossed or will hit any predetermined level in the future ........................... This method is based on simple fact that this market will keep on moving up and down. It does not recognize supports, resistances, trends, consolidations, ranges, breaks, retraces, fibs, emas, smas, pivots, ppzs, higher highs, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, h&s, bbs, bats, butterflies ..........................
Now you're getting somewhere. Threads back on track.

Quote
This method is based on simple fact that this market will keep on moving up and down
Yes, moving up and down hunting for liquidity.
rgds
  • #629
  • Jul 7, 2014 1:42am Jul 7, 2014 1:42am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Is this a holy grail system? ............. definitely not, but very close to one. (A Holy Grail system is the one which has no chance of loss but good chances of gains). It is a general (also logical) believe that there is no such thing as zero risk or no loss. Every trade under this system has a chance of loss. The author of this system recommended initial 1% risk and 2% reward. When I say "Initial", it means 1% risk at the time of taking a trade but he has devised a technique that gradually reduces this risk. According to the inventor...
Go on Chicky ... I got nice Margaret River merlot to go with the this, I'll share if you keep going on.... bit like a good book, just want to keep reading ..
cheers
hannele
  • #630
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:14am Jul 7, 2014 4:14am
So far, I like the features it does not have.
  • #631
  • Jul 7, 2014 11:25am Jul 7, 2014 11:25am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Is this a holy grail system? ............. definitely not, but very close to one. (A Holy Grail system is the one which has no chance of loss but good chances of gains). It is a general (also logical) believe that there is no such thing as zero risk or no loss. Every trade under this system has a chance of loss. The author of this system recommended initial 1% risk and 2% reward. When I say "Initial", it means 1% risk at the time of taking a trade but he has devised a technique that gradually reduces this risk. According to the inventor...
This method is amazingly simple to understand but equally difficult when it comes to application. Trade management part is very complex.

A trade size is about 100 to 300 pips and you carry several positions in different pairs at the same time. This is how you apply this method. What you do is look at the market situation, fundamentals, charts etc. just to get a general idea where it is heading, up or down, no particular level, no detailed technical analysis, etc. just an idea where it is heading. If you think it is heading up, buy it. But if you think it is going down, sell it. How much to buy or sell? Buy or sell just enough so that your loss is not more than 1% of your account equity if it goes 80 to 100 pips against you. Do not enter a second trade now. Enter a second trade preferably on a different pair when market situation changes, that is, some news, in another session, after few days, etc. Enter third trade, yet on another pair again when market factors change ......... so on. Now you would have several positions runniing on several pairs in different directions. This is your porfolio of trades. If a pair gives you loss of about 1% or little less (50 to 100 pips) close that postion. If a pair gives you profit of 200 or more pips, close it. Keep a close eye on your portfolio and account equity. Never let your drawdown run more than 5% to 10% of the account equity combined on all pairs. If your drawdown starts touching this limit, "do something" to bring it back within the limit. The most important thing is to always have some cushion so that it does not get near to this limit of 10%. The best way to create this cushion is to enter small positions risking only fraction of a percent on each trade. Do not hurry in building your portfolio.

Very simple, isn't it? Now test it to experience the difficult part.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #632
  • Jul 7, 2014 11:39am Jul 7, 2014 11:39am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This method is amazingly simple to understand but equally difficult when it comes to application. Trade management part is very complex. A trade size is about 100 to 300 pips and you carry several positions in different pairs at the same time. This is how you apply this method. What you do is look at the market situation, fundamentals, charts etc. just to get a general idea where it is heading, up or down, no particular level, no detailed technical analysis, etc. just an idea where it is heading. If you think it is heading up, buy it. But...
Try to keep your portfolio low Beta. This is the key.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #633
  • Jul 7, 2014 9:43pm Jul 7, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Try to keep your portfolio low Beta. This is the key.
I am testing this method of someone else to see if he is right in saying that one can reduce the risk to zero or almost zero. So far the account's Net Asset Value is fluctuating between $2,000 and $2,200. I am using a bit advanced version of this method than what I described above. This advanced feature helps a trader in reducing the risk. My aim is to see if the inventor is right in saying that one could eliminate the risk altogether. Following the instructions, I am not supposed to close certain losing positions but have no restriction if I want to open or close other positions. Here is the progress so far in about 2 weeks or so. From 2,154 to 2,190. During this period it also went down to 2,030 or so but came back without much of "do something".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #634
  • Jul 7, 2014 9:47pm Jul 7, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I am testing this method of someone else to see if he is right in saying that one can reduce the risk to zero or almost zero. So far the account's Net Asset Value is fluctuating between $2,000 and $2,200. I am using a bit advanced version of this method than what I described above. This advanced feature helps a trader in reducing the risk. My aim is to see if the inventor is right in saying that one could elimate the risk altogether. Following the instructions, I am not supposed to close certain losing positions but have no restriction if...
Here is another snapshot of what is posted above, this time with date and time.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #635
  • Jul 9, 2014 8:27pm Jul 9, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} . Many a time asking the right questions gives us unexpected answers. I remember hearing a story of a fella that lived in a large building on the 9th floor (or thereabouts)... On his way home, he arrived at reception to get in the elevator. A HUGE cue was forming in front of him, people waiting in order, all staring at the little digits for the lift to arrive. "f€ck this...i aint waiting all day" he murmured. So what did he do different to the rest of people? He could of stayed and waited in the cue like everyone else was doing, politely...
Ya I have to do that every time there's a fire drill in our building but my way is easier, press the down button for the basement (everyone wants to go up), hop in and go down then back up... saves you walking up one flight of stairs in case you're as lazy as I am.

Sorry Chicky, love this thread, just wanted to pass on a tip for the day...
  • #636
  • Edited 9:31pm Jul 10, 2014 9:14pm | Edited 9:31pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Here is another snapshot of what is posted above, this time with date and time. {image}

I think author of this method was right in saying that one can reduce trading risk to zero. (He indeed meant the Normal Trading Risk due to price fluctuations and not remote risk of currency failure or broker going bankrupt, etc). This is like moving sls to BE.

The most important feature of this method is that YOU remain incharge of your Trade Portfolio and are not at mercy of the market. Return is also not bad.

Currently up about $30 from yesterday, from $2,197 to now $2,230. That required "Doing Something" with the trades (Trade Management). Opened and closed several trades in the past 24 or 36 hours. At no point I felt out of control although 80% of the decisons to buy or sell proved wrong. Screen time was very little.

Here are some benefits of this method:
1. Price spikes do no harm
2. Sudden moves of severale hundred pips in any direction are just business as usual and give no major setback
3. No detailed technicals or fundamental studies
4. Choppy pa is no broblem
5. Stoploss hunting does not do much harm
6. False breakouts, bull/bear trapping, squeeze etc. do not affect your trading
7. Everything you do is based on logic and not any myth or blind believe
8. Profits are consistent. Urealized profits and unrealized losses (drawdowns) are within a tolerable limit set by the trader.

Here are some disadvantages of this method:
1. You have to keep track of several small trades
2. It can be applied to 20 to 50 pip trades but in this case Return On Equity (ROE) would be low because of spread cost.
3. You may have to sit for days even weeks just to see your equity staying at same level, moving very little.

But still, I think it is the best method that I have seen in my entire trading career. It is even (much) better than my best method of Playing The Bounces with 1% equal risk and reward. This method is worth testing.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #637
  • Jul 10, 2014 9:51pm Jul 10, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I think author of this method was right in saying that one can reduce trading risk to zero. (He indeed meant the Normal Trading Risk due to price fluctuations and not remote risk of currency failure or broker going bankrupt, etc). This is like moving sls to BE. The most important feature of this method is that YOU remain incharge of your Trade Portfolio and are not at mercy of the market. Return is also not bad. Currently up about $30 from yesterday, from $2,197 to now $2,230. That required "Doing Something" with the trades (Trade Management)....
I think enough has been disclosed about this method of someone else without breaking the promise given in return.

I will now be writing about some of the trading techniques (or methods) that I tried in the past 10 to 15 years. ................ but before I start, smoke time. I am little too late to quit this habit that is with me for more than 75 years.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #638
  • Edited 10:53pm Jul 10, 2014 10:43pm | Edited 10:53pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I think enough has been disclosed about this method of someone else without breaking the promise given in return. I will now be writing about some of the trading techniques (or methods) that I tried in the past 10 to 15 years. ................ but before I start, smoke time. I am little too late to quit this habit that is with me for more than 75 years.
Here is a list of some of the methods I tried. Will try to keep them in chronological order of experiment:

1. Martingale aiming at 0.10% return per trade, risk unknown, USD/JPY stochastic (without knowing this term/technical existed)- Failed
2. Martingale aiming at 0.03% return per day, risk unknown, USD/JPY stochastic (without knowing this term/technical existed) - Failed
3. Playing retraces of USD/JPY by putting pending orders on both sides - After initial success, complete loss.
4. Martingale aiming at 100% return per month, trading USD/JPY 25% retraces - Some success from 2002 to May 2007. Left a good life back home and moved to New York relying that this method will put me among the best in the world. Lost everything in few months.
5. Playing break-outs / Channel breaks of EUR/USD - Failed
6. Playing break-outs / Channel breaks of EUR/USD Jesse Livermore Style - Complete failure
7. Riverse Martingale on eur/usd - Failed
8. Trading at 1:2 risk:reward based on pa reading - Failed
9. Trading at 1:2 risk:rewards based on PPZ support/resistances - Failed
10. Trading with no set sl or tp based on time of the hour (Haven't seen anyone doing this yet) - Some success, but ultimate failure
11. High probability outcome trading (Michael Douglas Style) using all sort of trendlines as key levels - Probability always worked against me, complete failure
12. Playing bounces from key levels, without set tp or sl targets, bounces identified based on trendlines - Some success
13. Playing bounces from key levels, mathematically calculated levels using fibs - Some success
14. Playing trends and swings - complete failure
15. Multi-pair trading based on trendline break - Failure
16. Two / Three pair correlation trading - Failed
17. Hedge trading - Failed
18. Trading based on market/trader psychology - Failed
19. Longer term fundamental trading - Could not define long-term, immaturely abandoned this method
20. News trading - Brokers fucked me with platform freezes and slippage
21. Playing retraces based on support and resistances identified from chart reading - reasonable success, still do
22. Playing bounces based on key support resistance levels mathematically calculated hybrid with chart reading - some success
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #639
  • Jul 12, 2014 2:31am Jul 12, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} True, very true. In the end its all about taking money from peoples mistakes and being able to actually 'see' who and how they are pulling the strings. Money is made by people making mistakes (even algorithms are built by people...so...they can also be 'fooled'...although were talking micro seconds blablabla). Having said that (all else to one side) if you where to 'rate' %-wise, how much emphasis do you give to the ticker vs. depth? If you dont mind me asking. {quote} Price is the sum of all intentions. If you have a math problem needing...
Sorry pip for late response. I have been busy with other projects.
I have attached a trade taken yesterday on the ES sep14 contract. I took that trade not because of chart setup etc. In fact it would appear by chart I was buying into sellers at 56.50 and not such a great idea.
Its only small size due to having to educate and live trade simultaneously.
I have placed annotations on the chart to explain a few things.
I will try and get a video up in the near future as time permits.
With order flow trading, to pick 'nuance' you need a lot of experience looking at it. I don't use time and sales. The DOM I use runs 'totals' into bid/offer, so I can see 'block hits' and icing(prop/cap).
When you get size sitting there absorbing and then other size front-running going to market and 'taking', then you get price to move aggressively.
But also as I mentioned(see chart), on the flip side of that is what 'they'(big money) wont do.
You have to be very fluid about not being biased one side.
There is a lot to explain, far to much here and on this thread.
Hope this helps.
Rgds
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  • #640
  • Jul 12, 2014 2:57am Jul 12, 2014 2:57am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} {quote} ok, how do you compare between fx market and stock market about this (orders) point of views? is there any daily/weekly orders in the euro/chf, gbp/chf and euro/gbp fx market?how do orders theory explain why there is different pips range movement since 2014 on the 3 pairs ? for forex scientist: what is the correlation analysis and correlation formula for each 3 pairs?
Sorry about late reply ud.
It's the same with every market.
Size(big money) will ALWAYS take advantage of liquidity when and where they can(Why do you think guys will try and run option barriers to take stops out? It's because if they have 'presence' in the market, they WILL get paid.

1.Liquidate (They get all of what they need off without the market coming back on them).
2.Initiate (They get all of what they need on with out the market moving away from them).
They want maximum profit and max size on initiation without slipping or not getting the size they want on.

See, if you had a billion dollars you would 'need' to go about it the same way. The trouble with retail is they don't live in that world, so when they start trading they understand nothing of the MO of dealer/liquidity provider. 'They' run the show and we must understand their MO.
This isn't about us, it's about them.

Its not about volatility(pip ranges) either, it's about liquidity. The great thing about increased volatility is you make bigger profits from point of origin to the pocket or away from there if you're fading.
And of course, if you know not what you're doing, then volatility can cause disaster lol.
Volatility decides payment amounts, liquidity is the vehicle to get paid.
I have attached a chart, have a think about it.
Rgds
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