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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #27,901
  • Jul 17, 2014 3:45pm Jul 17, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting ShanghaiMoon
Aussie and the pound both hit SL. Guess I wasn't on beat with the market. Time to wait for it to get in rhythm again.
Yep buddy - my Euro didn't play ball either.
I set up a consolidation Support line on the H4 chart then waited for it to be broken. Moved to the H1 & entered short at close as shown on attached snapshot.
Smallish Stoploss of 14 pips but still hurts a bit.

I think I know why this failed - I jumped in as soon the H4 support was breached. In hindsight I should have waited to see a close below this level on the H4 chart and then moved to the lower T/Frame H1 to look for a pullback /move away entry.
I am still trying to get a handle on the EARLY entry and have watched Phillips videos over & over. Guess I have to watch again. Meantime any offers of suggestions are most welcome.

MARKET 4 - BINNIE 0

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  • #27,902
  • Edited 6:00pm Jul 17, 2014 5:17pm | Edited 6:00pm
Any ideas where this one will go? If it falls, Not sure if it will break past the support, and 365 ema.
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  • #27,903
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:57pm Jul 17, 2014 6:57pm
NZDUSD:
Just an interesting view on the weekly chart:
This is the third bounce on the 21ema (blue) and now there is a bearish engulfing candle (which still remains about 48 hrs to complete). –it could abbreviate the length of the bounce, and then make an abrupt fall of the pair., could first reach the 21ema on the weekly chart…
On june 20, I have place an order to sell expecting a drop there… but it seems, on the chart, could be materialising soon, or at least could be considered as a good start. That specific order to sell could finally be filled soon.
Will see…
free trades now...
sold .8675 aprox., expecting some 75/80 pips lower as first target
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Yvon
  • #27,904
  • Edited Jul 18, 2014 6:14am Jul 17, 2014 8:08pm | Edited Jul 18, 2014 6:14am
Quoting Jj4568
Any ideas where this one will go? If it falls, Not sure if it will break past the support, and 365 ema. {image}
hi JJ,

I am not sure either!
but there is my view on it:
To make it simpler, the AUDUSD has been contained in a large consolidation for quite some time. But now the pair is holding between the 365 and the 89 on the daily.
There is a new candle on the making now (on the daily), and the ATR range about 85 pips. So that daily candle could have a range of 85 pips, if it does that, it could be above or below the 89sma. If it is above, it could be hit by my SL, if the pair goes below, it could possibly reach down at the base of the consolidation, which is the other possibility.not too much money involved in here.

If you look closely, you can see the pair bouncing on the 21ema, for sure. But again, the pair bounces also on the 89sma. What a nice bounce (the first one on the left) and the macd responded accordingly. Now comes the second bounce of the pair, sure this one is a bit weaker but made a new high, but the macd, this time diverges. We could draw a line joining the tops and see a divergence between the macd and the pair. – so the momentum is a bit weaker.

edit: jully 18, :
The dollar index, having a grip for the last 3 days on the 365(on the daily), will it goes through finally?

My NZDUSD and the AUDUSD closed trades with not even an average of a pip lost on them,
All I got left is the EURUSD at zero, and still having my longer term short position in NZDUSD.
If the dollar index is having a grip on the 365, well, I am having a grip too on the gain I have for this week. Even if I still believe of what I said about the mentioned pairs, who knows what the markets will do in this geopolitical situation.
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Yvon
  • #27,905
  • Edited 9:02am Jul 18, 2014 8:24am | Edited 9:02am
The dollar index went finally through! The eurusd is now going down, the NZDUSD is at start of going down! will see...
Now free trade in EURUSD
(RUSSIA/UKRANE? )
-edit: secured 15 pips
edit :trades closes +15 pips
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Yvon
  • #27,906
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:57am Jul 18, 2014 8:57am
Quoting trademin
The dollar index went finally through! The eurusd is now going down, the NZDUSD is at start of going down! will see... Now free trade in EURUSD (RUSSIA/UKRANE? ) -edit: secured 15 pips {image}
Hope you're right. Short EURJPY and NZDUSD. Boht secured 10 pips each on half position. However covering for earlier loss 10 pips short USD/CHF (what was I thinking).
  • #27,907
  • Jul 20, 2014 3:13am Jul 20, 2014 3:13am
Hello Phillip! My name is Roman. Been studying your system for about a month, she is very interested! Heard that you spend a joint trading with their followers via Skype. Is it possible to join you?
  • #27,908
  • Jul 20, 2014 5:03pm Jul 20, 2014 5:03pm
Hi Roman - welcome to the thread. Phillip visits from time to time so we continue to post our ideas & charts and get feedback from each other. Trademin ( Yvon ) and Morelands ( Raymond ) are the experienced users of this H4 method so we rely on them to help us out with questions and also to keep an eye on what we are doing .
As far as I am aware, there is no skype group any longer. You gotta remember that this thread has been going for years now and many of the original members have moved on. The system that Phillip has given us is as successful as it ever was but it does take a hell of a lot of work . You have been following for a month you say so I guess you are still working your way through Page 1 contents. Everything you need to know is contained there but having said that, we will be here to help you with your questions. If you post a chart or two for us when you feel ready, it gives us a chance to see the way you trade & an insight to your way of thinking. We all learn from each other here & are looking forward to seeing you around.
  • #27,909
  • Jul 20, 2014 5:09pm Jul 20, 2014 5:09pm
MONDAY OUTLOOK

The Euro Daily is telling me to be BULLISH... Does anyone else agree. I have a plan A that will take me Long if Price can get back above the 21 on the H4.
The option for a Short bounce back to the Support at the BRN 1.3500 may well happen but a bounce & close down from the 21 does not offer too much reward back to the 1.3500 so I am really plugging for Plan A.

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  • #27,910
  • Jul 20, 2014 5:23pm Jul 20, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting binnie
MONDAY OUTLOOK The Euro Daily is telling me to be BULLISH... Does anyone else agree. I have a plan A that will take me Long if Price can get back above the 21 on the H4. The option for a Short bounce back to the Support at the BRN 1.3500 may well happen but a bounce & close down from the 21 does not offer too much reward back to the 1.3500 so I am really plugging for Plan A. {image} {image}

Would agree. We do look bullish in the near term, but eventually it will turn bearish
  • #27,911
  • Jul 20, 2014 11:16pm Jul 20, 2014 11:16pm
Question Time if any of you Candlestick Gurus can help please

On the chart there are plenty of candles with wicks. This last session has me confused so would appreciate your comments.
Is there grounds to think that the Bulls are trying to move this thing higher but the Bears outnumber them at the moment. Eventually the bulls will win the battle??? or will the Bulls get tired of playing and the Bears take over??
I have never been a reader of the candles too much in the past but I do take note of whether a candle closes near the high or low.
Thanks for feedback

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  • #27,912
  • Jul 21, 2014 1:12am Jul 21, 2014 1:12am
Quoting binnie
Question Time if any of you Candlestick Gurus can help please On the chart there are plenty of candles with wicks. This last session has me confused so would appreciate your comments. Is there grounds to think that the Bulls are trying to move this thing higher but the Bears outnumber them at the moment. Eventually the bulls will win the battle??? or will the Bulls get tired of playing and the Bears take over?? I have never been a reader of the candles too much in the past but I do take note of whether a candle closes near the high or...
TAILS!
A simple explaination :
Just need to look at a lower time frame, you will see their meanings.

Let’s take a oopps! In the chart below: just means got It the wrong way, Needs to turn around.
But let’s take it to a higher time frame… the oopps! Become a tail!---traders pushing the price down

If you have tails in opposition, one high and one low, just means indecision from the market(if you go to a higher time frame.. sometime the market is kind of waiting for something and they stand aside and could cause this kind of behaviour.-)
That’s my view of seeing those things.
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Yvon
  • #27,913
  • Jul 21, 2014 1:32am Jul 21, 2014 1:32am
Quoting binnie
Question Time if any of you Candlestick Gurus can help please On the chart there are plenty of candles with wicks. This last session has me confused so would appreciate your comments. Is there grounds to think that the Bulls are trying to move this thing higher but the Bears outnumber them at the moment. Eventually the bulls will win the battle??? or will the Bulls get tired of playing and the Bears take over?? I have never been a reader of the candles too much in the past but I do take note of whether a candle closes near the high or...

  1. Post 26,548

Just watched this video from P.Nell Rhythm Entries.zip

It doesn't answer your question, but i found it a good review, to check yourself to see what is going on in the market.

I maybe wrong, but this is my understanding in this case. There is consolidation going on the H4 waiting for the next move to which ever target you choose, for me it would be the next resistance line (horizontal broken line)

So if we broke it down like P.Nell.. Go to the m15 we have a triangle, tabbed 3 times on the top and waiting for the 3rd bounce from the support line, which also meets the major support line , then we could enter long with a small stop loss.

I know i haven't answered your question directly and nor can I, but it's a good way for me to review and learn more.

ps.
The thread moved so fast last week..it was nice to sit back and try to take everything in.. that flight plan was great from ShangaiMoon...

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  • #27,914
  • Jul 21, 2014 7:51am Jul 21, 2014 7:51am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Post 26,548 Just watched this video from P.Nell Rhythm Entries.zip It doesn't answer your question, but i found it a good review, to check yourself to see what is going on in the market. I maybe wrong, but this is my understanding in this case. There is consolidation going on the H4 waiting for the next move to which ever target you choose, for me it would be the next resistance...
hi yaakruay,
Indeed, Phillip Nel’s video is very instructive, as always, very appropriate. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Yvon
  • #27,915
  • Jul 21, 2014 10:23am Jul 21, 2014 10:23am
Thank you very much for your reply! With pleasure I will watch for the further development of the thread. I really try their transaction methods 1 page, and while I have a lot of mistakes. Hopefully fix them with your help in the future!
  • #27,916
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:16am Jul 22, 2014 10:16am
Quoting trademin
The dollar index went finally through! The eurusd is now going down, the NZDUSD is at start of going down! will see... Now free trade in EURUSD (RUSSIA/UKRANE? ) -edit: secured 15 pips edit :trades closes +15 pips {image}
got back short (for sure!) now secured 17 pips---NZDUSD free trades now--17 pips secured.
Yvon
  • #27,917
  • Jul 22, 2014 11:07am Jul 22, 2014 11:07am
Hi Guys hope you're well. I have been studying Phillips methods and (quietly) following this thread for a long time and have recently started putting it into practice with success. Whilst I have a good grasp on the concepts behind this methodology I have only just started putting it into practice for real so I will try and provide my own view on things if I can, but you'll have to go easy on me!

I look forward to learning from some of you guys on here who have been doing it for a while now, this is a really good thread and I am pleased it is still going after all this time
  • #27,918
  • Edited 11:25am Jul 22, 2014 11:14am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting JonnyPip
Hi Guys hope you're well. I have been studying Phillips methods and (quietly) following this thread for a long time and have recently started putting it into practice with success. Whilst I have a good grasp on the concepts behind this methodology I have only just started putting it into practice for real so I will try and provide my own view on things if I can, but you'll have to go easy on me! I look forward to learning from some of you guys on here who have been doing it for a while now, this is a really good thread and I am pleased it is still...
hi JonnyPip,
Welcome into the club! Good thing that your Trades are going well. Feel comfortable to emit your thoughts, they are welcome.-it is indeed a very good strategy.-and comments are welcome too,
Yvon
  • #27,919
  • Jul 22, 2014 11:43am Jul 22, 2014 11:43am
Thanks Yvon!

The GBP/USD looks pretty interesting, it's sitting right at the 2009 high and also the high of last month so it seems set for the next leg up. Possibly kick started by Carney speaking tomorrow morning, what do you think?
  • #27,920
  • Edited 1:44pm Jul 22, 2014 1:39pm | Edited 1:44pm
Quoting JonnyPip
Thanks Yvon! The GBP/USD looks pretty interesting, it's sitting right at the 2009 high and also the high of last month so it seems set for the next leg up. Possibly kick started by Carney speaking tomorrow morning, what do you think?
hi JonnyPip,

it is a possibility that Carrney speaks could have an effect on the direction of the GBPUSD, it could be a very interesting fact to watch tomorrow,

I look at the 4 hrs chart and possibly a support can hold( where the X are), but in order to do that , the price has to go above the 21ema, where it is not at this point...
I am not trading now on that pair, but I look at the charts. I want to share here my thoughts, as some people do here and I do apreciate so much,hoping It serves someone,
so there it is:
Before looking at the 4hrs charts I look at the daily in order to have a look to where is the pair price at this moment. Is it below the 89? No means the mood is still bullish, is it below the 21ema (in blue) or the 8ema? In this case it is. So for quite some time now this is going down the next barrier is the 89 on the daily : 1.6900 aprox.. quite far from now.

The 4hrs chart: there is some support where the X are and a divergence in the macd that could pull a flag to a small correction since the 200 is almost reach, so maybe a small bounce up. but in the 4hrs chart the mood is bearish below the 89, 21,8
The bounces on the 21ema has been done by pulling back to the 21ema, before going away down.
The clear beautiful bounces from the 21ema have been done on the daily at the start of the double top in the macd. And on the 4hrs chart they are well identified, beautiful, isn’t it?
where the X are, could it hold as support? I do not know.
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Yvon
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