Why Would Someone Sell a Highly Profitable System? | Page 3 | Forex Factory

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Why Would Someone Sell a Highly Profitable System?

  • #41
  • Jul 20, 2014 3:50pm Jul 20, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting tunera
{quote} therefore even a 70% system will have months of good profits, and months of low or no profits.
I fear we're going far off topic, but I'm curious.
You say you have a system doing 70% win expectation (on average) with a 1:1 R/R, and the problem is there are 'periods' where you get low or no profit, that's right?

Then I'd say that your MM is really wrong. What you're defining is a 'trendy' system, with periods (months) where you have big gains and periods (months again) where you have low gains or even the EA is negative.

If I were you I would apply exactly the opposite MM logic. If the last n operations have more than 70% success ratio I'd increase the volume of operations (expecting I'm in the good period and I have better chances the next op is a win). And opposite, when the last n ops are under the 70% success ratio I would just wait or operate in test mode. From what I see in the graph you posted your system operates 3 or 4 times a day, that's good, you have enough granularity to detect a change of mode after maybe 3 or 4 days only.

Obviously (for me, at least) you have not the holy grail but the super-mega-holy one.

t.
  • #42
  • Jul 20, 2014 11:25pm Jul 20, 2014 11:25pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Work with Dynamic Based ranges... TA DA!

TA DA!

The demo champ with his demo accounts.

Steps on how to dynamically losing your money.

Keep blowing up $100-$500 dollar accounts. But pls if you are using it, put 10k to survive the drawdowns. If you want to see his words I can post a screenshot of his hypocrite. 10k account is needed when he himself doenst dare do it. ROFL.

Talk about hypocrisy.
  • #43
  • Jul 20, 2014 11:30pm Jul 20, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting tacticat
Good! I'm too nice people And I feel like trusting you... What if I send you an EA, a good one of course, an EA I'm running right now with real money. You try it, you validate it behaves (see my 1st post in this thread as what to ask to a well-behaved robot). Once a month you check the profits, if you're satisfied you donate what you think is fair... that's all. Deal? A number of things can happen: 1) the EA does not deliver as expected you will lose a small amount of money or nothing at all (if you 1st try it on a demo account). 2) the EA performs...
Hi tacticat,

Thanks for your message and apologies for my delayed response! I'm usually active at the USD/JPY Discussion forum, but that's about it. Unless I get a personal response to a message, I often won't come back to the thread (unfortunately).

Anyways, you seem like a very nice person and I would be obliged to accept your offer. My apologies again in advance because sometimes my communication is not the best, but please allow me to catch up on this thread and your posts, and I am sure we will be getting in touch soon.

Send me a message or PM anytime you want, and I will do the same.

Thank you, and until next time...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #44
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:47pm Jul 24, 2014 12:47pm
As three forum members have shown some interest in helping me validate my well-behaved EA I've opened a new thread to discuss it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496307

Thank you all.
t.
  • #45
  • Jul 24, 2014 1:03pm Jul 24, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting PoundTrader
Realistically, you have to ask yourself why someone would sell you a trading system that they claim consistently makes over 100 percent every year. If the system is so great, why would you let the whole world use it? There are several explanations to those questions. First of all, the trading system might be a piece of garbage and the developer is looking for some suckers to buy it. Or, sometimes system developers will only sell a limited quantity of their systems. One of the best explanations is that a forex trader could give away the holy grail...
Agreed PT. Sometimes the best things in life are free... I have two EAs which I obtained freely (one from a website and another from a forum) and they are the best in my collection (in terms of win rate).

Also, my favourite EAs (Grid-Martingales) are also freely available from forums (dime a dozen, but high risk = high profit).

My guess for selling a "holy-grail" EA is that no one knows the EA as well as the developer. Therefore, no matter how much back-testing, forward testing and optimising, it can be nigh impossible to determine the best settings to utilize the EA with. And therefore, the full potential of the EA will never be realized by any Joe Public.

(but if the EA is truly so successful, the vendors would have no reason to want more cash)
  • #46
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:45pm Jul 24, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting tacticat
As three forum members have shown some interest in helping me validate my well-behaved EA I've opened a new thread to discuss it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496307 Thank you all. t.
The admins of the forum have decided that it was a 'commercial' proposal.

That was not the idea. If I ever 'sell' anything it has to be something I'm proud of. I just wanted some help to verify the EA was well-behaved and profitable, and some help to pay the required infrastructure. MT4 is too poor for some approaches.

Bye.
t.
  • #47
  • Edited 9:50am Jul 25, 2014 8:53am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting michaelpelly
With only 1-2 trades per week one can achieve 25-30% per year - it is not complicated at all.
well if it is really the case then why all professional fund managers struggle to eek out 7% annual return. FX concepts - once biggest fx fund shut down about year ago because of lack of performance.

Market keep evolving and in efficiencies are removed on continuous basis. Strategies that worked in the 80s, didnt work in 2000. before computers, doing MA crossover was state of the art (and so was turtle's method at that time). Then came easy cointegration based arb (called stat arb). now both dont work (simple stat arb doest work but if you add other things then it can make 2-3 sharpe)..

in the end, market inefficiencies keep getting smaller and smaller. it is not easy to make 25-30% return on consistent basis (at least not in retail account - in HFT with low latency you can make that or more currently which is also under pressure now).
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #48
  • Jul 25, 2014 10:01am Jul 25, 2014 10:01am
they wouldn't unless it was faulty or only works during certain times and other times can kill you if the market moves differently
  • #49
  • Jul 25, 2014 10:55am Jul 25, 2014 10:55am
Quoting justin7
they wouldn't unless it was faulty or only works during certain times and other times can kill you if the market moves differently
They might, after all, if people buy it, it's easy money. The only people who will buy it are those that can't trade, either because they are newcomers, or for one reason or another, are just losing money. Therefore, it is unlikely that your system is going to be cracked wide open by a bunch of novices, as most of them will fail with it if they have not spent sufficient time analyzing and testing the markets, and I'm talking about years, not months. Your winning system will therefore still be safe and you will receive an extra income from selling it.
  • #50
  • Jul 26, 2014 4:45am Jul 26, 2014 4:45am
Trading is not a get rich quick program. It is a slow process to take profit from the market over time and the traders that have patience are the ones that will be successful.
  • #51
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:05am Jul 26, 2014 5:05am
Hi all,
Referring to 1st post.
I should say ,i've been analyzing in this market and never reveal the exact way of my analysis and never sell my system to any one even my best friends just guide them during the day and you can see my analysis during many years in this site and find out the percent of accuracy of them.
I think those who have lost try to earn their money by selling some strategies ans template.
That's all.
Wish you Best
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #52
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:50pm Aug 13, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting bluepanther
{quote} Agreed PT. Sometimes the best things in life are free... I have two EAs which I obtained freely (one from a website and another from a forum) and they are the best in my collection (in terms of win rate). Also, my favourite EAs (Grid-Martingales) are also freely available from forums (dime a dozen, but high risk = high profit). My guess for selling a "holy-grail" EA is that no one knows the EA as well as the developer. Therefore, no matter how much back-testing, forward testing and optimising, it can be nigh impossible to determine the best...
If your Grid EA is "Cricket" EA, I will suggest you to close everything. This system is not viable. I know a couple of people who used it and they all went bust. Grid EA are too risky and ignore fundamentals which is why they ALWAYS GO BUST. Be aware

my 2 cents
  • #53
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:34pm Aug 13, 2014 10:34pm
Quoting PoundTrader
Realistically, you have to ask yourself why someone would sell you a trading system that they claim consistently makes over 100 percent every year. If the system is so great, why would you let the whole world use it? There are several explanations to those questions. First of all, the trading system might be a piece of garbage and the developer is looking for some suckers to buy it. Or, sometimes system developers will only sell a limited quantity of their systems. One of the best explanations is that a forex trader could give away the holy grail...
I don't know if one can put a percentage to returns a system is capable of generating because "how much profit/loss per year" depends solely on how market moves.............. you don't get or lose a penny if market does not move, no matter how good is the system ................................ but still, why someone would sell a good profitable system is a very good question.

First of all you need to know beyond reasonable doubt if there are and can be good profitable systems? If you believe the answer to this question is "NO", then the answer to this thread is "To make money from whoever buys it". But if you are of the opinion that there are good profitable systems, then the answer to this thread is that it is very much possible that one would sell even the best system on earth, most likely very cheap, for a variety of reasons. Have you ever heard of "Discounting"? It is like seeking to get much less than future value of something but today. If my system can earn 3,000% return over 10 years, I would rather settle for 500% return if paid today, maybe because I want to enjoy my life now for whatever reason. If you think more about it, I am sure you will find several other reasons for someone offering to sell a good profitable system. .................................... Personally, I never pay slightest attention to any system for sell in the market ............ and you know the reason.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #54
  • Aug 13, 2014 11:24pm Aug 13, 2014 11:24pm
Hi
I consider selling systems that work with a percentage rate of success like more than 50% and up to 70 % is a normal job and carrier why
first reason not any one like to trade the markets
second reason not any one have sufficient money to play the market and make good income from it if you have a system that works and win two trades out of three or three out of five and sell it for a given affordable price for all it will be good really you just work as advisory improving your systems
third thing and which is so important some are specialized in this just developing and improving there systems by time
me my self i have made about 7 systems that work with good ration until the market went dead as you see
in my case i started selling then i went to give it free of charge and just giving advisory service with it for a given subscription
i made good money and good relations also i am still giving advisory service and i also have my own system that i am developing and i did not sell it of give it up it is just to advisory service i offer .
i am trading my own money too little but it is enough for me at the time now i will add more but i am not in to trading and also i am from Sudan and good brokers don't offer us from Sudan brokerage service neither we don't have bank trans fare service so trading systems and advisory service are my destiny as you see
attached a photo of my system the one i am keeping for my self giving gold short for today lets see what happen
yesterday it was long
all have a nice day
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focus while relaxed to see better
  • #55
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:14am Aug 14, 2014 2:14am
Quoting tunera
{quote} eheh right, my post was a provocative one (i'm not here looking to sell anything). 99,99% of EAs on the internet are total shit, for the simple fact that the it is extremely difficult to create a really successful EA, the experience needed is way so big, that only a very few number of experienced traders can create such EAs. I really don't think that the 0,01% of EAs, that have some real value, will/are ever be shared or sold, especially to the retail world. By the way, if you can produce an EA that never have a loosing month and bring incredible...
I was at Lehman Brothers a couple of weeks before they went away into obscurity. They where still sweating and coding EAs. The boss was all riled up, looking like a ghost, having REAL serious phone calls. Obviously they believed they could do it. And these people where well funded and everything. 20 professional coders, day in, day out! I mean trading profitable is hard enough, why on earth would it be EASY to make an EA that is a lot more stupid then a person? It doesnt take a good programmer to make an EA, it takes a fucking GOD!
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #56
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:20am Aug 14, 2014 2:20am
Quoting yaed
{quote} I was at Lehman Brothers a couple of weeks before they went away into obscurity. They where still sweating and coding EAs. The boss was all riled up, looking like a ghost, having REAL serious phone calls. Obviously they believed they could do it. And these people where well funded and everything. 20 professional coders, day in, day out! I mean trading profitable is hard enough, why on earth would it be EASY to make an EA that is a lot more stupid then a person? It doesnt take a good programmer to make an EA, it takes a fucking GOD!
Sounds like those "coders" were more like "freeloaders" - look busy, but did little. Hard to get good workers these days...

You just need a grid EA which can survive just about anything the market can throw at it. Do backtests to ensure it will survive past mayhem, and then keep a close eye on it (especially during news announcements). Diversify on multiple pairs to hedge risks. I am not saying it is easy (otherwise everyone would be doing it), but it is not impossible to achieve. I hope to prove this... some day.

(...you need all the above, in addition to a reputable broker willing to allow possible HFT/scalping without messing with price fills and with reasonable spreads, and definitely a good VPS if you want to run it 24/6).
  • #57
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:44am Aug 14, 2014 2:44am
Quoting yaed
{quote} I was at Lehman Brothers a couple of weeks before they went away into obscurity. They where still sweating and coding EAs. The boss was all riled up, looking like a ghost, having REAL serious phone calls. Obviously they believed they could do it. And these people where well funded and everything. 20 professional coders, day in, day out! I mean trading profitable is hard enough, why on earth would it be EASY to make an EA that is a lot more stupid then a person? It doesnt take a good programmer to make an EA, it takes a fucking GOD!
A good EA can be written by a good trader only, it doesn't matter if you hire the best coders or if you have a team of coders, if they are not good traders first, they are not going to code anything good.
As for traders, good traders (speculators) have their own capital and trade that one, privately.
People that work on the bank are really good in terms of foundamental knowledge, but there is nothing that let me think they are good traders.

Would you trade for a bank?
No sane of mind good trader would ever do that.

My point here is, there are not many good traders in the world, and there are even fewer good eas!

On the other hand, all the fuss of the game is buy low sell high, it may not be as easy as it looks, but it is also not impossible!!
  • #58
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:49am Aug 14, 2014 2:49am
Just read a couple of the storys in this thread and whislt I agree no one would truly sell a system which is highly profitable, I do agree that particulary in the UK, if you make money from forex but that is your only source of income then the inland revenue may believe that is your job and try and screw you over. Where as, if you sell a system and make money from it then you can trade to your hearts content and know that you wont be taxed on it if you have an actual income from selling one thing, but trade seperately as a non taxable income.
  • #59
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:50am Aug 14, 2014 2:50am
Of course you can make a real good EA! But is there not a part of you that says: If it where THAT simple, why didnt anyone make it already?

All you do is insert all patterns into a database and make a mean average of where the weight of the orders lie. Its real simple. Database + patterns. Then you take that product and multiply it by the ATR. Its just that nobody done it! Takes time, takes effort. But the end result is a very simple program you could run on a friggin 8 - Bit NES processor. Once you get rid of all the bullshit.

Its not smart or hard or easy. It just is.

I mean that is what my brain is doing. The computer on my shoulders. Every program is an EA. Our mind is not different from a computer. Our mental instructions and perception can be measured in bits.

So of course an EA can be profitable, and of course we can make one right here right now, that will beat everything humanity has ever seen. For we see it already, we just havent said so yet.


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I am not afraid of profits. They come big and small, but if they come i take them if i cant seem to get more. Its a simple function of a bounce on TP = BE gives way to a different program called "This shit aint working out so good." If im there, that means i will close on 1-3 pip. Often on 2.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #60
  • Aug 14, 2014 3:07am Aug 14, 2014 3:07am
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