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Tony's Two Candle trading system

  • #441
  • Mar 14, 2013 3:14am Mar 14, 2013 3:14am
I beg to differ. Nothing you described here is beyond the capabilities of a well-written code. Programs can analyze data in as complex manner as you want. They can even learn to do it, if you want them to. Certainly, this is not something easily done and I can't imagine it being freely available because of that. But it is certainly possible.
  • #442
  • Mar 17, 2013 6:22pm Mar 17, 2013 6:22pm
Quoting tony_dtrader
Heres an indicator to help you with that , with alerts. Thanks to Cja.
the orginal signal candle alert does not work. to many builds since then. Easy system but the sl can get pretty big.
  • #443
  • Mar 17, 2013 7:26pm Mar 17, 2013 7:26pm
You need to combine 2 tf's...

h4/h1

daily /h4
tradewith60
  • #444
  • Mar 27, 2013 5:10pm Mar 27, 2013 5:10pm
This system is easy to debunk. It's equivalent to flipping a coin only your odds are worse which is why Tony is no where to be found. If this system worked the guy would be the king of forex. Internationally known as the guy who finally figured out forex and the whole world would be using this system using robots to make millions. But no he is just another person who had a run of luck then cleared out, when his luck started going against him. That actually is what most of the traders on this forum do, while telling you they have been trading this system for years and doing it full time.

You can debunk this yourself in minutes. Simply go back a few hundred bars and start counting. Count one when two bars occur and then minus one when they don't You will be shocked at how often 2 bars DON'T occur. In fact it may be better to bet on them not occurring!

Calling it price action is just silly. All price movement is price action! Saying that you have cracked the code to how price moves then never being heard from again is ridiculous.

Adding different time frames, other criteria like waiting for 5 pips to be reached, is all just smoke and mirrors to hide the fact this system stinks LOL

Do you home work before losing money on this silly system. Count how often two of the same bar occurs. Instead of thinking like a gambler and having confidence after a run of winners because there is a bigger run of losers coming just around the corner with this system.
  • #445
  • Apr 1, 2013 4:29am Apr 1, 2013 4:29am
Quoting puppypippy
This system is easy to debunk. It's equivalent to flipping a coin only your odds are worse which is why Tony is no where to be found. If this system worked the guy would be the king of forex. Internationally known as the guy who finally figured out forex and the whole world would be using this system using robots to make millions. But no he is just another person who had a run of luck then cleared out, when his luck started going against him. That actually is what most of the traders on this forum do, while telling you they have been trading this...
at least please show him some respect, and why not open your holy grail system new thread?
  • #446
  • Jul 18, 2014 11:08pm Jul 18, 2014 11:08pm
Quoting puppypippy
This system is easy to debunk. It's equivalent to flipping a coin only your odds are worse which is why Tony is no where to be found. If this system worked the guy would be the king of forex. Internationally known as the guy who finally figured out forex and the whole world would be using this system using robots to make millions. But no he is just another person who had a run of luck then cleared out, when his luck started going against him. That actually is what most of the traders on this forum do, while telling you they have been trading this...
I keep reading comments like yours all the time, it suggests that one can seriously study forex to increase chances for success at it. My observation is: most traders are doing exactly what you're suggesting and it's also made easy to do so (brokers, forums, etc., provide free study material like webinars, ebooks, courses, whatever); however, more than 90% of traders fail at making money, so where does that leave your 'theory'. As a matter of fact, the more advanced traders honor the adagio 'keep it simple'...

Making denigrating (even arrogant) comments like you did here, just shows your own limited, so called 'scientific', outlook on life and that's actually the best way to remain unhappy for years to come. Did you know that to this day, science can only address about 5% of the universe(s)? The rest is 'missing', so they call it 'dark matter' and 'dark energy'. Sure, they're successful in developing sophisticated machines (and gadgets), but they should get away from this idea that life is totally 'mechanical' and 'random' (evolution theory, explaining complex systems being the outcome of random events is just too silly for words). No wonder they're still treating cancer with chemo (highly toxic poison that kills ALL the cells of the body, not just the 'bad' ones - my educated guess is that most symptoms are part of the bodies own healing system, but admitting that would spell the end for the medical establishment, hence the lack of research into placebo/nocebo effect, spontaneous remission, energy healing, German New Medicine, etc.).

Just my two cents, as they say :-)

Cheers
95% of the people don't believe 100% they can win, that's why they lose
  • #447
  • Jul 20, 2014 9:28am Jul 20, 2014 9:28am
Quoting tony_dtrader
{quote} Here's two trades i took yesterday in mid London session. Another example of how price action works best always. {image} {image}

Guys! I cannot load candle_signal.

Help! thanks


Happy pipping!
  • #448
  • Nov 16, 2015 4:20pm Nov 16, 2015 4:20pm
Hi

This strategy still alive?
  • #449
  • Nov 16, 2015 5:38pm Nov 16, 2015 5:38pm
I like this system, it is worth a try i think
"If it wasn't hard everyone would do it. Its the hard that makes it great."
  • #450
  • Jan 1, 2016 3:23pm Jan 1, 2016 3:23pm
  •  voty
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Aspiring Trader | 326 Posts | Online Now
Me to I like this system.
So anyone tried back-testing it ? I do not see the template here or in the link as advertised.
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #451
  • Jan 1, 2016 4:14pm Jan 1, 2016 4:14pm
What this "system" propagates is horrible P/L ratio...laughable - profit 10 pips, stop loss 40 pips - that's beyond a joke. 0 candle patterns, 0 indicators - just "price action"...This is not a system, this is a trading strategy and extremely a bad one...and if I'm not mistaken I saw 99% success rate and 95% success rate, thats where I stopped reading.
  • #452
  • Jan 1, 2016 5:47pm Jan 1, 2016 5:47pm
Have a look at Dimdel's "Daily Green/Red Candle".
  • #453
  • Jan 1, 2016 5:54pm Jan 1, 2016 5:54pm
  •  voty
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Aspiring Trader | 326 Posts | Online Now
I do prefer simple things, rather than 20 indicators system. So this one is something I really like.
I'm new around but luckily with some programming skills. Second day with MT4 EA, but I can already make some scripts.
So I can confirm what I see, don't need to blindly follow any magic strategy.

EA finished for back-test this. And really great results for TP 10 pips / SL 40pips profit.
Back-test for EURJPY, 1H, 2015:
40% win ratio, account balance -55%

A little "better" results when counter (sell after two bull, buy after two bear):
47% win ratio, account balance -47%

I guess this is why Tony is not around anymore...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tony2CandleBacktest2015.png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Tony2CandleBacktest2015_Counter.png Size: 18 KB
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #454
  • Edited 3:53am Jan 2, 2016 1:51am | Edited 3:53am
Any "system" which causes trader to take 10 pips profit while SL size is 0.00000000000000000001% larger than profit is not worth testing. Otherwise you would need more than 80% trade success rate over a very long period...In his best days it is said Jessie Livermoore had 79%, but that's just a rumor...
Once I had (3 years ago) 36 consecutive trades with profit over a 3 month period. In the next 20 days I burned my account. Target profit NEEDS to be larger than stoploss size...otherwise your'e a sitting duck and the number of hunters with rifles around you grows exponentialy with each successful trade
  • #455
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:37am Jan 2, 2016 6:37am
I hope Tony is fine and wisch him all the best, He wrote all you need to be in profit with this system. All the best in new year 2016. Many green pips!
  • #456
  • Jan 2, 2016 6:52am Jan 2, 2016 6:52am
  •  voty
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Aspiring Trader | 326 Posts | Online Now
Quoting yareck1
I hope Tony is fine and wisch him all the best, He wrote all you need to be in profit with this system. All the best in new year 2016. Many green pips!
Haha yes, that's my plan in 2016. MANY green pips. I wish you the same!
Nicely written yes, but without back-testing it's not really useful.


So I still like this idea and not giving up. With better risk/reward ratio I think it could work. I need to find a way how to remove trades in the middle of a trend, those are burning it down. Need only a fresh new trend to open a position.
Also I think it's a mistake to close the trade after a new candle comes. I have much better results back-testing when I let the trade live... (but not in profit yet)
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #457
  • Jan 2, 2016 7:08am Jan 2, 2016 7:08am
Quoting tony_dtrader
Examples: Bull candle at 8gmt, most likely 9gmt candle could be a bull candle too. Bear candle at 11gmt, most likely 12gmt candle could be a bear too.
I trade only 3-4 first hours of london sesion ( Im from poland thats to me is from 8-11 a.m. ) and 2-3 hours of NY session, is better liquidity in market, thats works to me,
and second rule I manage Take Profit, normally is 10-15 pips ( I looking for momentum, sometimes is 20-30 ) than cut 50% to my equity al rest 50% let run with 10-15 pips trailing stoploss. For me is better results. Sorry for my english

80% succes with this method is easy to make but... must! handle your emotions
  • #458
  • Jan 2, 2016 7:08am Jan 2, 2016 7:08am
Quoting tony_dtrader
{quote} if you want 99% win ratio, go with 10pip tp. if you want 80% win ratio, go with 20pip tp. anyways tp at close of second candle sometimes very rewarding, usually at start of London and new York sessions and news hours.
This is where I stopped reading and started countering it...he/she tested it (in live trading) for 1-2 days, had a winning streak and posted it as a "system"...
"backtesting" implies it's 50-50, and with his SL size compared to profit, it's a burned account in no time.
  • #459
  • Jan 2, 2016 10:24am Jan 2, 2016 10:24am
Backtesting is a bullshit, you now that...
  • #460
  • Aug 21, 2016 9:55am Aug 21, 2016 9:55am
Quoting voty
I do prefer simple things, rather than 20 indicators system. So this one is something I really like. I'm new around but luckily with some programming skills. Second day with MT4 EA, but I can already make some scripts. So I can confirm what I see, don't need to blindly follow any magic strategy. EA finished for back-test this. And really great results for TP 10 pips / SL 40pips profit. Back-test for EURJPY, 1H, 2015: 40% win ratio, account balance -55% A little "better" results when counter (sell after two bull, buy after two bear): 47% win ratio,...
there is somethings not right for sure.
on a 1000$ deposit with proper Money management, the max loss and max profit must me much higher..

also how would it turn out if the win ration is 1:1 - spread meaning simply setting TP at exact the same as SL is to be
and exit the trade if the following candle does turn oposite on close instead of waiting for SL to happen

just some tought
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