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What is a 'Good' percentage for winning trades?

  • #21
  • Aug 20, 2010 6:18pm Aug 20, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Craig
This forum just sucks balls now doesn't it? This must be one of the stupidest posts I've read here in a while.
Agreed, Craig. Not to cast specific dispersions on that particular post.... but in general the entire forum seems to be off its stride lately. I have thought this for a while, but have not made any comments about it until I saw your post. Any thoughts as to why?


To the original question of the thread--- If we assume a 1:1 risk reward, then a win rate of 55% would be handsome indeed. Hard to achieve (if not impossible), but handsome!!

Regards,
  • #22
  • Edited 7:01pm Aug 20, 2010 6:41pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Agreed, Craig. Not to cast specific dispersions on that particular post.... but in general the entire forum seems to be off its stride lately. I have thought this for a while, but have not made any comments about it until I saw your post. Any thoughts as to why?


To the original question of the thread--- If we assume a 1:1 risk reward, then a win rate of 55% would be handsome indeed. Hard to achieve (if not impossible), but handsome!!

Regards,
The quickest way to bring down a forum is when forum members start insulting one another. Maybe it's just me, but I just do not see the value in it. I disagree with a lot of stuff I read from forum members, but it may be a case where I may be more advanced than them or they may be more advanced than me where it may take more time to see the "light" on both sides. If a particular thread starts to bore you, just visit another thread. Why the insult?? I assume we are making money in the markets, having a good time....loving what we are doing....why would I want to waste time insulting someone. Just stay on topic, we can all express various opinions. I have no interest in returning insults because I am happy taking money out of the markets and I like to be amongst other happy traders. It's not an ego thing for me, I have nothing to prove to anyone.

I have been trading long enough to know that trading is a process of discovery and unfolding. That's why I always allow myself room for other ideas and suggestions. An idea that seems outlandish and crazy today may make sense next month or next year. That is why I am so respectful of my fellow forum members.
  • #23
  • Aug 20, 2010 7:42pm Aug 20, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Agreed, Craig. Not to cast specific dispersions on that particular post.... but in general the entire forum seems to be off its stride lately. I have thought this for a while, but have not made any comments about it until I saw your post. Any thoughts as to why?
I don't know really, my guess is the forum just doesn't seem to see to have a good solid base of intelligent posters, when you mix this with new guys continuity posting utter shit any good stuff gets lost in the repetitious noise. We seem to have this constant merry-go-round of the same topics ('my broker sucks', 'which broker', 'price action', 'R/R', 'system x', 'nedging'), the tone just never seems to rise. The 'Systematic Trading' thread was a good attempt to go over some fresh ground, but I guess in the end there is only so much one can say on the subject. The only good forums are by invitation only or are very heavily moderated by experienced traders. I kind of have a soft spot for FF, since it was my first forum, and I have tried to post interesting stuff, but sometimes it just feels like a drunken booty call to an ex-girlfriend.

To the guy I singled out, I'm sorry, but one can only read so much crap and I dread to think what would happen to some newb taking your desperately bad advise. If you had couched it as a suggestion for debate, I'd understand you were just throwing out ideas, but you didn't. But to be fair, the same thing could have been said about I number of posts I read in the same period.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #24
  • Aug 20, 2010 7:54pm Aug 20, 2010 7:54pm
do the math, if you trade at 70% and you use a 20 pips stop to try for 10 pips.......thats 10 net pips per 10 trades (70 in wins, 60 in losses)..........if you use a 200 pip stop in expectation of 400 pips using 10% of the lots to maintain money management....and trade at the same 70% thats....2800 pips in wins minus your 600 pips in loses....net 2200 divide that by 10 so you get an equal representation.... you average 220 pips per 10 trades.....overall and in the long run, there are many many more successful med to long term traders doing this than short term......look at it this way...do we agree that the majority of the traders out there lose money? well, guess what...I'd say 90% of them trade short term, reversed risk/reward ratios, and at less than 70% correct......Percentages mean nothing unless it is also coupled with risk/reward ratios and money management......
  • #25
  • Aug 20, 2010 7:56pm Aug 20, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting Craig
I don't know really, my guess is the forum just doesn't seem to see to have a good solid base of intelligent posters, when you mix this with new guys continuity posting utter shit any good stuff gets lost in the repetitious noise. We seem to have this constant merry-go-round of the same topics ('my broker sucks', 'which broker', 'price action', 'R/R', 'system x', 'nedging'), the tone just never seems to rise. The 'Systematic Trading' thread was a good attempt to go over some fresh ground, but I guess in the end there is only so much one can say...

I'm in the same boat.......I come to laugh and help when and where I can when I run into someone that wants to listen.......the others I know they'll be here and gone.....
  • #26
  • Aug 20, 2010 8:00pm Aug 20, 2010 8:00pm
I come here for laughs too ---"intelligent"---- FYI ---- It's "continually posting" not "continuity posting". Just for laughs no harm done.
  • #27
  • Aug 20, 2010 8:21pm Aug 20, 2010 8:21pm
OK folks, I'm done for a few days.....time to recharge and get ready for next week. Let this be a starting point for everybody to get back on topic and get to talking about this FX monster.............I'm out!!!
  • #28
  • Aug 20, 2010 9:03pm Aug 20, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting Craig
I don't know really, my guess is the forum just doesn't seem to see to have a good solid base of intelligent posters, THEN PLEASE ENLIGHTEN US WITH YOUR GOOD, SOLID, INTELLIGENT POST. Are you saying you have never "been there"....
I have came to the conclusion that "everything" is true in Forex and yet nothing is true. There is hardly one statement that cannot have a reasonable and valid argument. That idea is not hard to test if only you consider that two people take opposite positions on the same currency pair at the same time and BOTH have a winning trade.

I have been guilty of being unreasonably offensive at times, maybe with good reason... maybe not. It seems that I must get in the first "punch" or all is lost.

I remain defensively offensive.

TR
  • #29
  • Aug 20, 2010 10:14pm Aug 20, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting TradeRunner
That idea is not hard to test if only you consider that two people take opposite positions on the same currency pair at the same time and BOTH have a winning trade.
Here is where Forex Holy Grail lies: the exit is more important than the entry.
  • #30
  • Aug 20, 2010 10:39pm Aug 20, 2010 10:39pm
Quoting TJPLD
No one cares about winning percentages.
They should if they have bothered to compare the variance between a 30% winrate and a 65% winrate.

Quoting Traderhotch
As Intu said, expectancy, profit factor etc are the important ones.
I don't agree. Winrate is almost as important as positive expectancy, and neither alone is significant. They must be taken in context with each other. A winrate without positive expectancy is obviously worthless, and a decent positive expectancy with horrible winrate will not be practical to trade. We need both expectation and winrate to combine to not just be profitable, but practical as well. Both are needed, both are important.
  • #31
  • Aug 20, 2010 11:01pm Aug 20, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting Craig
This forum just sucks balls now doesn't it? This must be one of the stupidest posts I've read here in a while.
Perhaps you misunderstood...I think where Troikaone1 was going was that winning %, MM, etc. doesn't mean anything unless you are making money in a timely manner. If it takes you 2 years to double $1500 twice, then you DO need to do something different.

Lots of people get hung up on the "calculator" side of trading. I know two people personally that considers themselve profitable currency traders, and technically they are....but that profitablility is <$50 per month average. In my opinion, it would be less stressful and less time consuming to forget forex and just make that much selling stuff on ebay!

I agree the time it takes to double $1500 twice is a good benchmark for all traders...it levels the playing field and allows people to compare apples to apples. Knowing the time it takes to do that, you can determine % winning trades, ratio of winners to losers, etc. over unit time. Then you can make changes as needed to match your personal goals.

Granted, I have a different philosophy about trading and time does play a part. I don't want to just be able to say "I am profitable!"...I want to be able to say "I make a lot of money!". Otherwise, it wouldn't be worth the time invested.

Just my two pips..
  • #32
  • Aug 20, 2010 11:13pm Aug 20, 2010 11:13pm
It doesn't really matter what you're %win is, all that matters is your game is of positive expectancy.

I've had systems with less than 10 %win or as high as 90%. As long as it makes money I'm not bothered.

You may find that higher expectancies will not test your discipline as much as lower expectancies.
  • #33
  • Aug 20, 2010 11:33pm Aug 20, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting FX-Petra
To the original question of the thread--- If we assume a 1:1 risk reward, then a win rate of 55% would be handsome indeed. Hard to achieve (if not impossible), but handsome!!
A 10% edge can range from very impressive to marginal, depending on trade frequency. Someone who scalps for 10% can make a tremendous amount of money, while someone who trades the daily for 10% should keep the day job.
  • #34
  • Aug 21, 2010 10:44am Aug 21, 2010 10:44am
Well thanks for all the replies guys (and girls), only sorry that it started to degenerate into slagging match. Anyway, I guess my question has been answered now, but just to clarify my position, I trade on average 6 or 7 trade per day, my r/r ratio is not less than 1:1 and usually 2:1 and my s/l is never more than 20 to 30 pips, my daily target is 50 pips per day. And although somewhat academic, I did manage to double a £1600 account twice in 4 weeks...So I guess I must be doing something right.

GG
Now trading live
  • #35
  • Aug 22, 2010 11:00am Aug 22, 2010 11:00am
As I understand you doubled 1600 to 3200, and again 3200 to 6400. This is an interest of 300%.

4 weeks = 20 trading days. 20 trading days*6 trades on average a day=120 trades. If each one of your trades was a winner (100% win ratio), you would have had a gain of 300%/120=2,5% per trade. According to your risk:reward ratio your risk would have been in between 2,5-5% a trade.

Let's say you had a 70% winning ratio (84 profitable trades out of 120) which is more likely. You would have gained on average 300%/84= 3,6% per trade which means a risk of 3,6-7,2%.

As I've not calculated your drawdown in the latter example, you're actual risk must have been even higher. I think it was Bruce Kovner in Market Wizards who said "I'd rather become slowly rich than quickly poor".

Quoting Gg33
Well thanks for all the replies guys (and girls), only sorry that it started to degenerate into slagging match. Anyway, I guess my question has been answered now, but just to clarify my position, I trade on average 6 or 7 trade per day, my r/r ratio is not less than 1:1 and usually 2:1 and my s/l is never more than 20 to 30 pips, my daily target is 50 pips per day. And although somewhat academic, I did manage to double a £1600 account twice in 4 weeks...So I guess I must be doing something right.

GG
  • #36
  • Jul 18, 2014 10:10pm Jul 18, 2014 10:10pm
I thinks its all about R/R, with larger average R/R , you can get better result even with less wining rate.
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #37
  • Jul 18, 2014 10:48pm Jul 18, 2014 10:48pm
It depends on you as a trader. Are you willing to only win 30% of your trades but hold on for the runners or would you rather have a higher win % and only take profit at 1 or 1.5 x R? I think it's very important to consider this, it's likely one or the other will be better suited to your personality.
  • #38
  • Jul 19, 2014 3:27pm Jul 19, 2014 3:27pm
Regardless of what the question implied you can't take away R:R.

1:3 R:R at 70% win rate is better then 1:1 win rate at 90%.

In the long run as long as the money you make is worth more then the time you put in then you shouldn't care!
  • #39
  • Last Post: Jul 31, 2014 6:41am Jul 31, 2014 6:41am
I dont really care about the winrate, the expectancy should matter which is PROFIT/NUMBER OF TRADES, so AVERAGE PROFIT is it.

But even so, i think the most important number is in order:

1) Equity DD
2) Return
3) Sharpe ratio

The others are optional numbers
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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