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Is random really random? 231 replies

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Attachments: Do you believe this market is random?
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Do you believe this market is random?

Anything ng that you cannot predict with hundred percent certainty is random.
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
Quoting Pipomagic
Anything ng that you cannot predict with hundred percent certainty is random.
Oh your one of those guys. Well maybe I shouldn't have said anything, carry on.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
I just saw this thread and wanted to share my opinion.

Great topic, btw. Very interesting indeed!

I do NOT believe the market is random. There are unique and complex structures in the market that can be seen time and time again with the proper lens.

I also believe the markets have never been more technical in nature than they are now... Due largely to advances in technology.

If you think the market is random, that just means you've still got a lot to learn!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
Quoting diceman555
I would like to have a poll on this topic but not sure how to do that. DO YOU BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS RANDOM , ????
I already participated at many threads which addressed the "random market issue", so this will be the last time i`m going to say this:

If you put the question like that, i assume its random for you.Randomness is very subjective, the lack of information can also cause randomness.

I will explain it in this metaphor,i hope you guys will get it once and for all:

 

  1. It's like if a primitive tribesman doesn't know what causes the rain and when will the next rainy day be.If he codes a rainy day with 1 and a non-rainy day with 0, he gets a binary string of 0 and 1 for example it will be: 0000010001000000100000100000001001011101110001

Will that string be random to him? Of course, he can use every tool and all his logic that he has to find a pattern in that, with little or no success, and his predicting capacity will be very limited to the sample size, the pattern's accuracy and reliability ,etc

 

  1. Whereas, a professional will instead learn weather forecasting tools, and uses a weather station to forecast the weather, so he doesnt have to extrapolate patterns from a seemingly random string.So the weatherman will predict the weather with 80% or more accuracy and to maybe 2-3 weeks ahead.


The same is true with predicting currencies, its no different with predicting weather, you just using the wrong tools for prediction if you came to a result that its random, because from a good trader's view it's not.

"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I already participated at many threads which addressed the "random market issue", so this will be the last time i`m going to say this: If you put the question like that, i assume its random for you.Randomness is very subjective, the lack of information can also cause randomness. I will explain it in this metaphor,i hope you guys will get it once and for all: It's like if a primitive tribesman doesn't know what causes the rain and when will the next rainy day be.If he codes a rainy day with 1 and a non-rainy day with 0, he gets a binary string...
Although I do agree with you Proximus, you certainly have an interesting way of putting it.

But I knew I subscribed to you for a reason!

At least we can agree that the market is not random and if you think so, then... take it with a grain of salt... but you're still a n00B!!!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Although I do agree with you Proximus, you certainly have an interesting way of putting it. But I knew I subscribed to you for a reason! At least we can agree that the market is not random and if you think so, then... take it with a grain of salt... but you're still a n00B!!!
maybe you should read some more... or at least try google before you proclaim your genius on forums
tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} maybe you should read some more... or at least try google before you proclaim your genius on forums
Lolololol... There is a reason we are not friends
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Lolololol... There is a reason we are not friends

'Academics cannot conclusively prove or agree on whether the markets truly operates via a random walk or based on predictable trends because there are published studies that support both sides of the issue'.

This has been the case for nearly 50 years - so based on facts the market displays random and non-random behaviour, of course if anyone has evidence that is definitely not true then they should publish it because they would no doubt earn much more than they are likely to earn as a trader.

even the most successful publication supporting a non-random walk hypothesis only goes as far as saying that the markets are not completely random http://store.stockcharts.com/products/a-non-random-walk-down-wall-street
tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
Academics cannot conclusively prove or agree on whether the markets truly operates via a random walk or based on predictable trends because there are published studies that support both sides of the issue'. This has been the case for nearly 50 years - so based on facts the market displays random and non-random behaviour, of course if anyone has evidence that is definitely not true then they should publish it because they would no doubt earn much more than they are likely to earn as a trader. even the most successful publication supporting...
Fair enough, that is a good, albeit, neutral argument. Although you will not sway me in my belief(s) that the markets are NOT random.

I would love to prove it (my beliefs), and could only hope to do so in the near future. I can assure you that I am working on developing the holy grail EA as hard as it may f*ing seem but I am determined to pull it off and believe I have the system to do so.

You seem like an experienced trader and so I do not want to argue with you, but if you think that I am a forex noob then you are sadly mistaken.

With that said, doesn't it ONLY make sense that "the most successful publication in the world" would only publish their beliefs once that can... undoubtedly... and undeniably... be said with the utmost conviction???

Unfortunately, I am not quite there yet, but I am close.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Although I do agree with you Proximus, you certainly have an interesting way of putting it. But I knew I subscribed to you for a reason! At least we can agree that the market is not random and if you think so, then... take it with a grain of salt... but you're still a n00B!!!
Yes it maybe was a bit overcomplicated statement but i think most guys get the idea, if you dont then put in simple words its the following:

Quote
past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

A very well known disclaimer, but it actually captures the essence why newbie traders lose.Now i dont say its always the case, but too much focus on past data analysis while ignoring current market enviroment is bad.

As for my TE, thats another story, i usually learn from my mistakes

Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} 'Academics cannot conclusively prove or agree on whether the markets truly operates via a random walk or based on predictable trends because there are published studies that support both sides of the issue'. This has been the case for nearly 50 years - so based on facts the market displays random and non-random behaviour, of course if anyone has evidence that is definitely not true then they should publish it because they would no doubt earn much more than they are likely to earn as a trader. even the most successful publication supporting...
It is predictable, the mere fact that fund managers are able to bring consistent profits year after year tells you that it is indeed possible.

The fact that retail performs so poorly its another story, and has various reasons, but the main one just to toss a bone, aside from not having a good edge is poor risk management.The two go together.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes it maybe was a bit overcomplicated statement but i think most guys get the idea, if you dont then put in simple words its the following: {quote} A very well known disclaimer, but it actually captures the essence why newbie traders lose.Now i dont say its always the case, but too much focus on past data analysis while ignoring current market enviroment is bad. As for my TE, thats another story, i usually learn from my mistakes {quote} It is predictable, the mere fact that fund managers are able to bring consistent profits year after...
Amen brother, I think you nailed all the key points. I can tell you that I definitely suffer from a case of poor risk management when it comes to my own trading, but it is something I am always trying to work on. A lack of consistency ultimately comes from poor risk management.

I especially like your quote "too much focus on past data analysis while ignoring current market enviroment is bad."

Such a simple statement, but yet, very true. Now if only there was a way to program that into the EA....

- Sent from iPhone
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Amen brother, I think you nailed all the key points. I can tell you that I definitely suffer from a case of poor risk management when it comes to my own trading, but it is something I am always trying to work on. A lack of consistency ultimately comes from poor risk management. I especially like your quote "too much focus on past data analysis while ignoring current market enviroment is bad." Such a simple statement, but yet, very true. Now if only there was a way to program that into the EA.... - Sent from iPhone
I was suffering from the "no-edge" or "random market" syndrome many months but thats not the case anymore thanks to a little better understanding of the markets.I think the best way to get it is from education/ knowledge, there are no holy grail which will do the work for you.

I also think that you might overcomplicate your trading with that EA stuff, it can be programmed but i think its useless to waste your time with an EA management and update rather than just do it all yourself.Eventually you can make a trade manager like i did if you want really precise entries, but i think the input should be manual.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} 'Academics cannot conclusively prove or agree on whether the markets truly operates via a random walk or based on predictable trends because there are published studies that support both sides of the issue'. This has been the case for nearly 50 years - so based on facts the market displays random and non-random behaviour, of course if anyone has evidence that is definitely not true then they should publish it because they would no doubt earn much more than they are likely to earn as a trader. even the most successful publication supporting...
That is why they are academics.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} That is why they are academics.
That is why they are academics, sitting in a classroom arguing about some nonsense theory instead of being billionaires sipping martini in their private yachts

If they knew that the market is not random then maybe they would have a better income than a professor income which i guess is not that high worldwide.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
Quoting Proximus
That is why they are academics, sitting in a classroom arguing about some nonsense theory instead of being billionaires sipping martini in their private yachts If they knew that the market is not random then maybe they would have a better income than a professor income which i guess is not that high worldwide.
lol Proximus, I love you dude
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
Quoting smash1820
{quote} lol Proximus, I love you dude
No disrespect to the academic community but at this one they are really doing a poor job.

Its not weather the market is random or not, its actually an irrelevant question to begin with.It's like the debate over the egg and the chicken.It doesnt matter.

If they should have spent their time actually analysing the markets and trying to predict it, they could earn good money that way.By arguing with one another they dont achieve nothing, even if they find something decisive which proves either side, it wont affect the trading community in any way.

Some people already and always will make money, some people already lose but may not always lose money.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
You are right, the debate doesn't really matter... but since it has been started, I do feel somewhat compelled to prove, at least to some extent, that the markets are not random.

I think the real questions should be: do you know how to take advantage of it? And will you?
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
A good question would be, even if the markets are random, could you still make money? I think you could.
Quoting TradeDream
A good question would be, even if the markets are random, could you still make money? I think you could.
Quoting smash1820
You are right, the debate doesn't really matter... but since it has been started, I do feel somewhat compelled to prove, at least to some extent, that the markets are not random. I think the real questions should be: do you know how to take advantage of it? And will you?
Yes, that question is irrelevant, the big question is wheather it is possible to make money or not, to which the answer is: yes.

Fund managers and professional traders do that for like 200 years, every market is made to make money, its not just a random phenomena of nature that just popped out.It was meant to make money.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
Quoting Proximus
Yes, that question is irrelevant, the big question is wheather it is possible to make money or not, to which the answer is: yes. Fund managers and professional traders do that for like 200 years, every market is made to make money, its not just a random phenomena of nature that just popped out.It was meant to make money.
lol you really do sound just like Gordon Gekko. Perhaps that is why I like you

.... Ok off to bed.... g'night!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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