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AUD/USD

  • #82,741
  • Jul 18, 2014 6:20am Jul 18, 2014 6:20am
Quoting Fx_Anil
AUDUSD likely to signal important sell call on the reversal from 0.9390 level with the target of 0.9368 and 0.9350. However, a sustained trading above 0.9390 can fuel the pair towards 0.9415. {image}
You are definitely on the mark with this. However, it broke down yesterday after hitting this level. With all the political tensions going on...I would see a sell off before the weekend.
  • #82,742
  • Jul 18, 2014 6:21am Jul 18, 2014 6:21am
It is funny how they say they are going risk off...yet all the risky ones are up. Love the pull and tug game. But at the end the weights win.
  • #82,743
  • Jul 18, 2014 6:27am Jul 18, 2014 6:27am
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} You are definitely on the mark with this. However, it broke down yesterday after hitting this level. With all the political tensions going on...I would see a sell off before the weekend.
Hmmmm, I see the same thing
  • #82,744
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:16am Jul 18, 2014 7:16am
got a crappy entry, but looks like the market never forgets where a kazillion stop losses are resting...
thanks for the reply yesterday, Ken...
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  • #82,745
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:34am Jul 18, 2014 7:34am
at this point low volatility has become its own self fulfilling prophecy. any time theres selling pressure the market quickly whipsaws back and runs everyones stop.


sucks for trend traders, great for ranging/scalping
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #82,746
  • Edited 7:51am Jul 18, 2014 7:35am | Edited 7:51am
It's already in the chart

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  • #82,747
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:44am Jul 18, 2014 7:44am
Quoting Ken A
It's already in the chart {image}
Ken, you crack me up...lol

citiboy, regardless of time frame, low volatility leads to high volatility which leads to low volatility in a repeating cycle...
even though i trade futures and have true volume on my chart, i usually find that volatility analysis,regardless of time frame is most times more reliable than volume...
  • #82,748
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:44am Jul 18, 2014 7:44am
AJ thread never gets much attention so I thought I'd post here. Not a trade recommendation but I am holding short into the weekend

Fundamentally, it is hard to imagine wanting to hold risk over the weekend with whats going on not only in the Ukraine but also in Israel and Gaza. Even with the swap, you would think big money would be dumping some longs before market close, especially after the post Malaysia bounce. Why risk a big gap down next week on open. I'm not saying its going to happen but who knows what might develop over the weekend.

Technically, AJ hasn't traded above the 34EMA on the 4H since the beginning of the month. Resistance from downward TL and the 50SMA, with the 100SMA and WP not far above.

I came into this world pitiful and naked and that's how I like my charts
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #82,749
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:53am Jul 18, 2014 7:53am
Wow, as I was posting I see Canadian data caused AJ to spike to 95.29 the WP.

Nice try on your stop runs, hahahaha, SL at 95.33 neener neener you missed me!!!
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #82,750
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:06am Jul 18, 2014 8:06am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Do you know why CAD data is boosting AUD
They have the similar size of economics structure? They move in the same direction most of the time.
  • #82,751
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:08am Jul 18, 2014 8:08am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Do you know why CAD data is boosting AUD
to do with commodity based economy like AUS, trader think if CAD rises so should AUD? more complex factors at work now though
  • #82,752
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:14am Jul 18, 2014 8:14am
AUD/CAD approx 1.006 but looks like long term average around .900
  • #82,753
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:16am Jul 18, 2014 8:16am
Quoting MrketSniper
{quote} They have the similar size of economics structure? They move in the opposite direction most of the time.
No, and I won't use CAD as commodity ccy at this time.

They will move in the same direction if CADUSD instead of USDCAD.

Look at AUDCAD, USDCAD and AUDUSD.

For simplicity let's just look at AUDUSD, we all know .94 was a barrier previously and buy stops built up above this level. Without the positive CAD data, AUD can't move without affecting other pairs so this is the opportunities to clean out the buy stops from the shorts above.

In my case to catch the spike by EURAUD. Basically you can trade any correlated pair as long as your prediction as per data release.

It's an easy guess for this round because the expectation was much lower than previous month.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1405686888
  • #82,754
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:22am Jul 18, 2014 8:22am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No, and I won't use CAD as commodity ccy at this time. They will move in the same direction if CADUSD instead of USDCAD. Look at AUDCAD, USDCAD and AUDUSD. For simplicity let's just look at AUDUSD, we all know .94 was a barrier previously and buy stops built up above this level. Without the positive CAD data, AUD can't move without affecting other pairs so this is the opportunities to clean out the buy stops from the shorts above. In my case to catch the spike by EURAUD. Basically you can trade any correlated pair as long as your prediction...
Yeah I understand, it is basically just like USD/CHF and EUR/USD. Especially EUR/CHF try to keep the price around 1.20 level.
  • #82,755
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:24am Jul 18, 2014 8:24am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Do you know why CAD data is boosting AUD
Yes, because I read post 82,765

Thank you
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #82,756
  • Jul 18, 2014 8:40am Jul 18, 2014 8:40am
theres more than 1 way to skin a cat! the previous posted chart is supply and demand chart 60 min
this chart is 30 min volatility chart. point is different systems work equally as well.
the market can be traded purely by volatility analysis...
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  • #82,757
  • Jul 18, 2014 9:05am Jul 18, 2014 9:05am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No, and I won't use CAD as commodity ccy at this time. They will move in the same direction if CADUSD instead of USDCAD. Look at AUDCAD, USDCAD and AUDUSD. For simplicity let's just look at AUDUSD, we all know .94 was a barrier previously and buy stops built up above this level. Without the positive CAD data, AUD can't move without affecting other pairs so this is the opportunities to clean out the buy stops from the shorts above. In my case to catch the spike by EURAUD. Basically you can trade any correlated pair as long as your prediction...
Hi Ken,

How did you manage to predict CAD's data result if I may ask?
Thank you
  • #82,758
  • Jul 18, 2014 9:12am Jul 18, 2014 9:12am
Quoting Daehoth
{quote} Hi Ken, How did you manage to predict CAD's data result if I may ask? Thank you
The expectation was much lower than previous month and there's no reason to speculate it would perform much worse than prior month. Or this is just lucky guess (no insider info). Read lot of news, watch porn and drink juice.

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  • #82,759
  • Jul 18, 2014 9:28am Jul 18, 2014 9:28am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} The expectation was much lower than previous month and there's no reason to speculate it would perform much worse than prior month. Or this is just lucky guess (no insider info). Read lot of news, watch porn and drink juice. {image}

Dam....
drink juice, I knew I was missing something!
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #82,760
  • Jul 18, 2014 9:30am Jul 18, 2014 9:30am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} The expectation was much lower than previous month and there's no reason to speculate it would perform much worse than prior month. Or this is just lucky guess (no insider info). Read lot of news, watch porn and drink juice. {image}

Aye the juice! Must drink juice!
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