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Cross Market Analysis

  • #181
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:30am Jul 17, 2014 6:30am
why ?

Quoting Jimbaloo
{quote} EURUSD has been rangebound between 1.35-37 for approx. 2 months. Attempting to time WHEN a break-out will occur is just folly. The EUR index you mentioned should be trade weighted, like this one: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exch.../index.en.html
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #182
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:31am Jul 17, 2014 6:31am
I'm just playing Ken ,I do read with interest ,but I've spoke my mind ,and for me its a very complex way of looking at things ,just my opinion ill leave it there


Quoting Ken A
C'mon bone do you really have to do it here?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #183
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:31am Jul 17, 2014 6:31am
naah, indexes should have same weight on pairs.. lets say cadjpy/audjpy/eurjpy/usdjpy/gbpjpy/chfjpy if one wants to trade only this 7 currencies.

bp on all those pairs is still 1000 JPYs worth if you play 100k of primary. yes I know its different with primary..
  • #184
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:34am Jul 17, 2014 6:34am
btw I'm short cable ,see how day close
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD h4 (DFB).png Size: 44 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #185
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:36am Jul 17, 2014 7:36am
Quoting 21vs7
naah, indexes should have same weight on pairs.. lets say cadjpy/audjpy/eurjpy/usdjpy/gbpjpy/chfjpy if one wants to trade only this 7 currencies. bp on all those pairs is still 1000 JPYs worth if you play 100k of primary. yes I know its different with primary..
This might come as a surprise to some: the euro is actually tied to an underlying economy.

With a random or equal weighting it becomes very difficult to accurately assess whether the index is over/undervalued.

Of course, it's possible to trade it purely based on technicals. Good luck with that.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #186
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:47am Jul 17, 2014 7:47am
Quoting Jimbaloo
{quote} This might come as a surprise to some: the euro is actually tied to an underlying economy. With a random or equal weighting it becomes very difficult to accurately assess whether the index is over/undervalued. Of course, it's possible to trade it purely based on technicals. Good luck with that.
thanks
  • #187
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:56am Jul 17, 2014 7:56am
just read what price is telling you ,in fact for candles lfx is very good better than fx

Quoting Jimbaloo
{quote} This might come as a surprise to some: the euro is actually tied to an underlying economy. With a random or equal weighting it becomes very difficult to accurately assess whether the index is over/undervalued. Of course, it's possible to trade it purely based on technicals. Good luck with that.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #188
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:32am Jul 17, 2014 8:32am
look at jpy pair now to see how usefull that info was
usd jpy support is in danger

Quoting Aws1962
Plus, going to the main crux of this. How on earth does looking at a simple index like that one help in anyway?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #189
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:32am Jul 17, 2014 8:32am
Quoting Bones
look at jpy pair now to see how use full that info was usd jpy support is in danger {quote}
right. because your index managed to successfully predict a passenger jet getting shot out of the sky... yh ok.
  • #190
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:35am Jul 17, 2014 8:35am
you can believe thats the reason if you like , its been in the charts couple weeks now ,its the higher ground you take over us retail traders ,
its misplaced
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #191
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:39am Jul 17, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Bones
you can believe thats the reason if you like , its been in the charts couple weeks now ,its the higher ground you take over us retail traders , its misplaced
are you seriously saying technicals have caused this move? you truly are delusional!

A fucking plane has been shot down with 300 people dead, and you think techs pushed the USDJPY lower?

jesus man. you need to sort your life out.
  • #192
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:45am Jul 17, 2014 8:45am
fact is ve been right havnt I
,last post
laters ,
jpy pairs will recover according to your plane theory ,
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #193
  • Edited 9:02am Jul 17, 2014 8:48am | Edited 9:02am
Jezzzz

News for malaysian jet ukraine

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/w...cle4150129.ece

Inserted Video
  • #194
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:48am Jul 17, 2014 8:48am
Quoting Bones
fact is ve been right havnt I ,last post laters , jpy pairs will recover according to your plane theory ,
you really have no clue, I don't have time for people like you here. I'm sorry, but could you please refrain from posting your nonsense here again.

Thank you.
  • #195
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:49am Jul 17, 2014 8:49am
for those interested

*UKRAINIAN INTERIOR MINISTRY ADVISER SAID THE BUK MISSILE WAS FIRED BY SEPARATISTS - INTERFAX
*280 PASSENGERS, 15 CREW DIED ON PLANE, SAYS UKRAINIAN INTERIOR MINISTRY ADVISER QUOTED BY INTERFAX
*MALAYSIAN PLANE WAS BROUGHT DOWN BY A BUK GROUND-TO-AIR MISSILE - INTERIOR MINISTRY ADVISER, QUOTED BY INTERFAX
*INTERFAX AGENCY SAYS MALAYSIAN PASSENGER AIRLINER WAS SHOT DOWN AT ALTITUDE OF 10 KM ABOVE EASTERN UKRAINE
  • #196
  • Jul 17, 2014 12:39pm Jul 17, 2014 12:39pm
no problem ,just one thing if the plane thing is the reason ,how would you explain that gbp jpy started falling well before ,


Quoting Aws1962
{quote} you really have no clue, I don't have time for people like you here. I'm sorry, but could you please refrain from posting your nonsense here again. Thank you.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp JPY d1 (DFB).png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd JPY (DFB).png Size: 36 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #197
  • Jul 17, 2014 1:49pm Jul 17, 2014 1:49pm
Mailing list people...

Check your inboxes. You've got;
-Goldman sachs weekly techs
-Citi techs and some economic research.
-BNP ECB note, + macro/rates/FX weeklies
-HSBC huge piece on volatility (great read)
-JPM with some good reads
-Soc Gen daily.

enjoy.
  • #198
  • Jul 17, 2014 1:51pm Jul 17, 2014 1:51pm
Looks like war is imminent

Gold spike
  • #199
  • Jul 17, 2014 1:54pm Jul 17, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting Ken A
Looks like war is imminent Gold spike
new US sanctions should create more volatility. treating former superpower like 3rd world country. This could be Gold positive if russia & china increase the push to weaken USD's position in the world.
VIX has jumped today.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #200
  • Jul 17, 2014 2:14pm Jul 17, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting stt
{quote} new US sanctions should create more volatility. treating former superpower like 3rd world country. This could be Gold positive if russia & china increase the push to weaken USD's position in the world. VIX has jumped today.
Yup, VIX up a lot. FX volatility also a bit higher (no where near as much tho)

Thing to watch in o/n is USDJPY... I've noted large bids 500mil at each price level in the teens. All getting chewed through. More so lower. Risk/reward is definitely skewed long. But probablility and tail risk all lies to the downside break. Be very aware of fake breakouts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX.png Size: 24 KB
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