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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,521
  • Edited 12:44pm Jul 16, 2014 12:22pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} I agree. That's a strong support level I'm looking to buy at. My entry range is 1.35 down to 1.3475.
I am sure there are large institutional orders waiting for buy at 1.35 which is huge psychological level not easy to break.
In context of EU vs GU price difference there is a huge gap.I anticipate Pound correcting lower.

So Far G/CHF is failing to break 5395
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,522
  • Jul 16, 2014 1:01pm Jul 16, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am sure there are large institutional orders waiting for buy at 1.35 which is huge psychological level not easy to break. In context of EU vs GU price difference there is a huge gap.I anticipate Pound correcting lower.
The last time EUR/USD tested 1.35 it overshot to 1.3475 to clear out stops so the institutions could execute more buy orders. I don't necessarily expect it given the Fiboncci and rising trend line support, but I'm prepared for a false break nevertheless.

I think Euro rising will trigger pent up USD selloff which didn't occur despite very bearish commentary from Yellen, the Senate, and Congress which will in turn push the Pound higher. On the other hand if the Euro falls that will also trigger buying of the Pound, particularly given the technicals of the EUR/GBP chart, that is, unless the USD Index can break up through resistance.

1.706 was the retest and strong rejection from the prior high for GBP/USD, the 23.6% retracement of the move from May, the 2005 low, and the 2009 high, so I don't anticipate a further move down though I wouldn't strike 1.70 out of the question (more like 1.6995) which would be 36.2% retracement. I think a move down to 1.71 is most likely and I'll guess that would put 8-hour RSI at 50 and daily RSI at 60 which are very reactive levels, but that's not enough downside for me base a trade from. Without the USD Index going higher I can't see shorting the Pound when it appears to be the currency the the greatest fundamental upside being the currency most likely to raise rates the soonest.

GBP/USD 8-hour
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.USD - 140715 8-hour.jpg Size: 387 KB
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,523
  • Jul 16, 2014 5:40pm Jul 16, 2014 5:40pm
Just update on my templete
I changed WR% to 21 which works better with RSI 8
I still gave greater weight to RSI reading.Everything else is same

Short G/CHF 2x 5392
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,524
  • Jul 17, 2014 2:14am Jul 17, 2014 2:14am
Quoting Davit
Just update on my templete I changed WR% to 21 which works better with RSI 8 I still gave greater weight to RSI reading.Everything else is same Short G/CHF 2x 5392
Dear,
Followed by you, I entered SHORT @ 5396 and closed @ 5362.
Thanks for your position sharing.
Regards.
  • #1,525
  • Jul 17, 2014 9:53am Jul 17, 2014 9:53am
Quoting azfarjaved
{quote} Dear, Followed by you, I entered SHORT @ 5396 and closed @ 5362. Thanks for your position sharing. Regards.
Closed mine at 5352
+80pips
Just be careful following blindly.I had some losers in JUly
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,526
  • Jul 17, 2014 11:01am Jul 17, 2014 11:01am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Closed mine at 5352 +80pips Just be careful following blindly.I had some losers in JUly Regards
Dear,
I am regular user of your forum and read every post. (although i do not write most often)
I understood your system deeply and now feel proud to follow it blindly.

Sharing with honesty, your latest merger designed (34 EMA) system did not appeal me and i am using old one successfully.
Regards,
Azfar
  • #1,527
  • Jul 17, 2014 11:13am Jul 17, 2014 11:13am
Quoting azfarjaved
{quote} Dear, I am regular user of your forum and read every post. (although i do not write most often) I understood your system deeply and now feel proud to follow it blindly. Sharing with honesty, your latest merger designed (34 EMA) system did not appeal me and i am using old one successfully. Regards, Azfar
I think its improved tremendously.
If you want to follow the trend it clearly guides you and BB tells you when to get out the exhaustion stretched levels.
Its 2 system in 1. I always felt something was lacking on BB alone and the Wave brings in together naturally.
My aim in long run to follow trend not counter as I have been doing...My losses on NU and GU could of been massivly profitable had I followed the trend instead of fighting it.Anyway that's the weakness that made me think and improve upon.
Regards

PS go to youtube and type Raghee Horner and watch her presentations.Wave is based on her system.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,528
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:08am Jul 22, 2014 10:08am
short G/CHF
5389 2x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFDaily.png Size: 46 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,529
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:26am Jul 22, 2014 10:26am
Quoting Davit
short G/CHF 5389 2x {image}
Dear,
You are more experienced than me but i think you entered early.
I have an eye on this pair from last 2-3 days and i am waiting for 5400 level.
Regards.
  • #1,530
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:38am Jul 22, 2014 10:38am
Successfully reduced my NU shorts from 18 to reasonable 10
Reductions were in profit
Goal if RBNZ increase IR 24th which 70% chance they will I will sell higher up.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,531
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:43am Jul 22, 2014 10:43am
Quoting azfarjaved
{quote} Dear, You are more experienced than me but i think you entered early. I have an eye on this pair from last 2-3 days and i am waiting for 5400 level. Regards.
Hi friend
Even though I don't use S/R in my trading language a lot I do pay attention.Notice how it got rejected (green line)
In my trading principals I agree with you.
Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF.H4.png Size: 48 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,532
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:49am Jul 22, 2014 10:49am
Lesson learned from my NU shorts fiasco.
Never get too confident and over trade.I placed 18+shorts on NU and cost of swap holding was seriously high.
Lesson learned trade within your account margin in healthy level and have peace of mind.When your mind is relaxed you make better decisions.
I am just happy I reduced the draining elephant to gazelle
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,533
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:59am Jul 22, 2014 10:59am
Quoting Davit
short G/CHF 5389 2x {image}
Hi Davit, Nice area I'm also starting to look at. Not saying it will but it "could" push another 50 or so higher in my humble view. Good luck with it brother.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfmh4.png Size: 61 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,534
  • Edited 11:31am Jul 22, 2014 11:12am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Hi Davit, Nice area I'm also starting to look at. Not saying it will but it "could" push another 50 or so higher in my humble view. Good luck with it brother. {image}
Nice Chart Chris.Agree it can.There is inherent risk on any trade but having said this there is very strong resistance at 54
Notice on daily whenever WR% is above -20 its in overbought zone and I using this overbought concept in real actual terms.
(WR% in black color) WR% is 21period
Regards friend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF.Daily.png Size: 45 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,535
  • Jul 22, 2014 11:49am Jul 22, 2014 11:49am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Nice Chart Chris.Agree it can.There is inherent risk on any trade but having said this there is very strong resistance at 54 Notice on daily whenever WR% is above -20 its in overbought zone and I using this overbought concept in real actual terms. (WR% in black color) WR% is 21period Regards friend {image}
I must admit the 4H double top looks tempting as a day trade. I'll wait for more signs myself though. I don't know anything about the new additions to your system but I will say, the original BB has much merit in my humble view. By that alone the daily RSI and upper band has more up room.

That wave seems not only a straight uptrend run, but price hasn't even come close to it again yet. But again, I know nothing of that.

My projection is modest as a simple day trade view compared with others who are looking at 1.55167 before even being interested. Not a straight line of course but just to point out some potential upside.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,536
  • Jul 22, 2014 11:31pm Jul 22, 2014 11:31pm
Short 9431 AU 2x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.H4.png Size: 52 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,537
  • Jul 23, 2014 12:57am Jul 23, 2014 12:57am
Quoting Davit
Short 9431 AU 2x {image}
Subscribed few days ago. Honestly, I have not read all your posts. My question could be an annoyance. Forgive me for that. RSI could be overbought to go to overbought and stay that way for long period of time. In your chart, you can see similar candles (near the Blue Outside Bolinger Close candle), where price went higher. So I cant understand why you would short. Can you explain, please.
  • #1,538
  • Jul 23, 2014 1:44am Jul 23, 2014 1:44am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} Subscribed few days ago. Honestly, I have not read all your posts. My question could be an annoyance. Forgive me for that. RSI could be overbought to go to overbought and stay that way for long period of time. In your chart, you can see similar candles (near the Blue Outside Bolinger Close candle), where price went higher. So I cant understand why you would short. Can you explain, please.
Hi P
It has same probability long or short.Trade does not work out take the loss and trade again.
Measure of success is over series of trades.
That's the best answer I can give.Could I be wrong shorting AU? Sure.Could I profit? Sure.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,539
  • Jul 23, 2014 7:31am Jul 23, 2014 7:31am
Quoting Davit
short G/CHF 5389 2x {image}
Added 4 more shorts and closed all at 5363 Total of +180pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFM30.png Size: 47 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,540
  • Jul 23, 2014 7:39am Jul 23, 2014 7:39am
closed all GU shorts
8 positions +940pips!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 58 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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