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Cross Market Analysis

  • #161
  • Jul 17, 2014 5:48am Jul 17, 2014 5:48am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 1.47 lot At what price
at 1.47
  • #162
  • Jul 17, 2014 5:48am Jul 17, 2014 5:48am
not really ,you have to work it out yourself ,I read your thread with interest but I'm thinking your definitely overcomplicating the situ

i.e you don't know eu is trending south

Quoting Aws1962
{quote} care to explain how this helps? My preferred index would look at the EUR on a volume weighted (+vol weighted) basis.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #163
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:00am Jul 17, 2014 6:00am
Quoting Bones
not really ,you have to work it out yourself ,I read your thread with interest but I'm thinking your definitely overcomplicating the situ i.e you don't know eu is trending south {quote}
To say something is trending is one of the biggest mistakes every market participant makes. Don't worry its not just retailers like yourself, but HF/RM managers do it too.

Here are 3 charts of the EURUSD. One shows an undeniably bullish "trend"... one shows range trading.... one shows bearish "trend"

by changing the timeframe one can confirm any bias they want. That is why my job is so important, to take an unbias look at the market.

for ex, if someone is short, they can make a neutral chart look bearish, they can spin a neutral number as bearish fundamentals.

Even though I do have a book, the skill is to always look at things without any bias.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR 1.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur 2.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur 3.png Size: 21 KB
  • #164
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:02am Jul 17, 2014 6:02am
Plus, going to the main crux of this. How on earth does looking at a simple index like that one help in anyway?
  • #165
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:07am Jul 17, 2014 6:07am
I know I'm only a retail trader ,but in 5 seconds I can tell you support won't hold , ,poss today it will but its going to break and trend is south ,

I can use LFX charts to say strong jpy I know do not short at this point


Quoting Aws1962
{quote} To say something is trending is one of the biggest mistakes every market participant makes. Don't worry its not just retailers like yourself, but HF/RM managers do it too. Here are 3 charts of the EURUSD. One shows an undeniably bullish "trend"... one shows range trading.... one shows bearish "trend" by changing the timeframe one can confirm any bias they want. That is why my job is so important, to take an unbias look at the market. for ex, if someone is short, they can make a neutral chart look bearish, they can spin a neutral number as...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur USD monthly (DFB).png Size: 22 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #166
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:09am Jul 17, 2014 6:09am
Not sure how it helps others but definitely not me
  • #167
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:11am Jul 17, 2014 6:11am
little push on jpy ,down is stronger

Quoting Ken A
Not sure how it helps others but definitely not me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LFXJPYWeekly.png Size: 19 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #168
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:12am Jul 17, 2014 6:12am
Quoting Bones
I know I'm only a retail trader ,but in 5 seconds I can tell you support won't hold , ,poss today it will but its going to break and trend is south , I can use LFX charts to say strong jpy I know do not short at this point {quote} {image}
you may very well be correct, most people do think its going to break. The market prices in a a very high chance of a move below 1.35

My point is that the index you show adds no value to that opinion, i.e. it shows nothing to support that view. yes a EURUSD chart does, not some index though.
  • #169
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:15am Jul 17, 2014 6:15am
Do you know the reason for that move or the index is moving the price

Quoting Bones
little push on jpy ,down is stronger {quote} {image}
  • #170
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:16am Jul 17, 2014 6:16am
Just checked with options dealers... I can barely get a quote for any size for a 1.35 touch.

Mkt almost unanimous that we break it in next 1 month. That is concerning.
  • #171
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:31am Jul 17, 2014 6:31am
the index is a direct reflection of the majors ,you can actually calculate any major or cross from it im not sure whats difficult about its use ,
eur in downtrend usd in up trend at this time ,but dose disappoint often ,I would like to see a close over 1.7253 to be sure on $

Quoting Ken A
Do you know the reason for that move or the index is moving the price {quote}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDLFXWeekly.png Size: 25 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #172
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:33am Jul 17, 2014 6:33am
Quoting Bones
little push on jpy ,down is stronger {quote} {image}
I just built that JPY index on my own platform. There are serious flaws with the ideas behind it.

It Is not a good representation of the JPY in my opinion, be careful basing your opinion on it. (especially if you decide to trade the XXX/USD's based upon these indicies instead of a basket)
  • #173
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:38am Jul 17, 2014 6:38am
? its exactly the jpy ,against the other majors ,what are the flaws

Quoting Aws1962
{quote} I just built that JPY index on my own platform. There are serious flaws with the ideas behind it. It Is not a good representation of the JPY in my opinion, be careful basing your opinion on it. (especially if you decide to trade the XXX/USD's based upon these indicies instead of a basket)
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #174
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:47am Jul 17, 2014 6:47am
Quoting Bones
? its exactly the jpy ,against the other majors ,what are the flaws {quote}
The USDJPY trades about 1 trillion USD per day
The EURJPY 147bn
the AUDJPY 45bn
the CADJPY 6bn

See the problem yet?
  • #175
  • Jul 17, 2014 6:55am Jul 17, 2014 6:55am
no why does that matter ?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #176
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:32am Jul 17, 2014 7:32am
Quoting Bones
no why does that matter ?
.... at least TRY and think about what those numbers mean.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #177
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:35am Jul 17, 2014 7:35am
well try to tell me cause all im interested in is which way its going , how much money changes hands is completely irrelevant ?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #178
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:41am Jul 17, 2014 7:41am
without doubt your highly educated in the business ,much brighter than me ,which could be your problem

Quoting Aws1962
{quote} The USDJPY trades about 1 trillion USD per day The EURJPY 147bn the AUDJPY 45bn the CADJPY 6bn See the problem yet?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #179
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:48am Jul 17, 2014 7:48am
C'mon bone do you really have to do it here?
  • #180
  • Jul 17, 2014 8:25am Jul 17, 2014 8:25am
Quoting Bones
I know I'm only a retail trader ,but in 5 seconds I can tell you support won't hold , ,poss today it will but its going to break and trend is south , I can use LFX charts to say strong jpy I know do not short at this point {quote} {image}
EURUSD has been rangebound between 1.35-37 for approx. 2 months.
Attempting to time WHEN a break-out will occur is just folly.

The EUR index you mentioned should be trade weighted, like this one:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exch.../index.en.html
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
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