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NZD/USD

  • #6,641
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:20am Jul 15, 2014 10:20am
Trend bull is still in effect.Price above 34EMA (wave) and Oscillators did not break below 50 suggesting its typical pull back
As you can see I have lot of red trades and do admit they were errors.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,642
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:20am Jul 15, 2014 10:20am
Stupidly cut short (pardon the pun) my 8805 short entered last week at a minor loss. Seemed like that 88 handle just kept containing shorts. Seeing price action now is upsetting!! :-(
  • #6,643
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:21am Jul 15, 2014 10:21am
gonna watch how PA reaction around the shoulder ..........
Quoting iqyu5an
kissed support .. little bounce and added short ............ and...........taraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.............. {quote} {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #6,644
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:23am Jul 15, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Davit
Took the opportunity to cut 4 shorts with minor profits but it allows me to have ammunition higher up. We will have most likely another push 88+coming prior of 24th interest rate release.
now you turning bullish and pair will only go down from here lOL
  • #6,645
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:25am Jul 15, 2014 10:25am
Quoting seanb85
Stupidly cut short (pardon the pun) my 8805 short entered last week at a minor loss. Seemed like that 88 handle just kept containing shorts. Seeing price action now is upsetting!! :-(
Sean almost all swings have retracement.Its the human behavior fear and greed and bases of harmonics and Elliot Wave.
No worries I am almost sure we will see 8840 before 24th and another opportunity to short higher up
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,646
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:28am Jul 15, 2014 10:28am
Quoting cobracoder
{quote} now you turning bullish and pair will only go down from here lOL
no have too many shorts but reduced my positions to save swap until 23rd and will short higher up.
There is anticipation for interest rate hike so no real retracement will occur prior of 24th since that is bait for bulls.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,647
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:44am Jul 15, 2014 10:44am
Quoting iqyu5an
Oil drops below monthly low . trigger other economy slowdown ? declining other commodity ? property ? dairy ?
Whole Milk Powder prices average USD 3,088/mt in GDT auction, a fall of 10.9%

not euphoria follower
  • #6,648
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:52am Jul 15, 2014 10:52am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} Whole Milk Powder prices average USD 3,088/mt in GDT auction, a fall of 10.9%
Yes everything fundamentally is Bearish on NU except that the idiots at RBNZ keep pointing out inflation as sole reason to hike rates.
Pretty idiotic specially when leading economies are still keeping rates low and Aussies thinking even cutting their rates.
With Lumber and dairy prices low 30% of NZ economy is in danger but the idiots at RBNZ are delusional.
There is a good chance they may not raise interest rates at 24th or I could underestimate stupidity of these bankers.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,649
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:54am Jul 15, 2014 10:54am
While I do agree that NZD will fall sooner rather than later....It is going to hold up tomorrow with China coming out with a surprise. There are 2 reason why I think China may come out and surprise. 1 - The party leaders are basically doing a world tour meeting with countries PM's to strengthen trade. They do not want to show that the country is in bad shape...which can be evidenced by the recent increase in the loan given.
  • #6,650
  • Jul 15, 2014 11:17am Jul 15, 2014 11:17am
Excellent article on NZ economy
http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...mic-fundamenta

Note that Fitch report was 6months late.
"The Fitch credit rating report was arguably six months out of date as they referred to the record high dairy prices, which have plummeted more than 30% over the last four months."

"A lot has changed over recent months.
International dairy prices are dramatically down 30% and are likely to go lower.
The stark reality of the NZ dollar strengthening and diverging away from weaker economic fundamentals (i.e. lower wholemilk powder prices) is about to hit the economy.
Current forecasts of 3.5% plus GDP growth will need to be hastily revised significantly lower as a Fonterra milksolids payout closer to $6.00 for the next 2014/2015 season compared to $8.40 last season wipes $3 billion off dairy farmer incomes.
The recent collapse of export log prices has caused 'carnage' in the forestry industry as small to medium operators stop cutting trees completely.
Adding to the rapidly deteriorating export industry situation is lack lustre consumer and industry demand from our largest export market, Australia. A NZD/AUD cross-rate above 0.9300 compounds the problem for exporters into Australia.
Eventually, the negative impact on our economic performance will be more widely recognised and understood, resulting in the NZ dollar depreciating.
Sharply lower dairy prices will also eventually pull the NZD lower. The Fonterra/GDT auction this Tuesday night will again confirm the soft underbelly in the demand/supply equation of the global wholemilk powder market.
Wednesday’s June quarters’ inflation data could surprise on the low side with imported consumer goods still going down in price, as are insurance and telecommunication prices. The consensus + 0.4% forecast for the quarter (1.80% annual rate) may well be higher than the actual outcome, forcing some re-thinking at the RBNZ."
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,651
  • Jul 15, 2014 11:22am Jul 15, 2014 11:22am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Exited short for small net profit ... and good riddance I say!
Ugh. Sometimes it's good to never look back. Bailed on shorts at .87924 ... .

Maybe "it can't go any higher" is a valid indicator (for those who poo-pooed the shorts) ... .

As you can see, I stupidly tried to pick a top at what is now the .50 Fib and at the .618 when the short-term top was ultimately above that. The smarter thing to have done is be patient, wait for it to top and then to re-test the top, before considering a short (which I ultimately did, at least for one of the positions). Live and learn, I guess.

Will consider reloading short from .8825 or, in the alternative, going long from .8743:

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Price has penetrated the 200 period MA on the 1H, has wicked through that MA on the 2H, and remains above it on higher time frames, so bulls might attempt to recapture some ground on retracement.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #6,652
  • Jul 15, 2014 11:24am Jul 15, 2014 11:24am


lazy officer .......only offer rate rate rate .............business need run in real........ not just rate

Quoting Davit
{quote} Yes everything fundamentally is Bearish on NU except that the idiots at RBNZ keep pointing out inflation as sole reason to hike rates. Pretty idiotic specially when leading economies are still keeping rates low and Aussies thinking even cutting their rates. With Lumber and dairy prices low 30% of NZ economy is in danger but the idiots at RBNZ are delusional. There is a good chance they may not raise interest rates at 24th or I could underestimate stupidity of these bankers.
not euphoria follower
  • #6,653
  • Jul 15, 2014 11:29am Jul 15, 2014 11:29am
Quoting Davit
{quote} no have too many shorts but reduced my positions to save swap until 23rd and will short higher up. There is anticipation for interest rate hike so no real retracement will occur prior of 24th since that is bait for bulls.
I would agree that it might be advisable to wait post-RBNZ meeting before diving in further (which is what I'll be doing).

I would love a long set-up for the pair so that I wouldn't have to think about the swap (or would allow me to take advantage of the positive swap), but an attractive level would be far below where we're at short-term. So, in the mean time, short from a failed re-test of .8840 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #6,654
  • Jul 15, 2014 12:02pm Jul 15, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting Davit
Excellent article on NZ economy http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...mic-fundamenta Note that Fitch report was 6months late. "The Fitch credit rating report was arguably six months out of date as they referred to the record high dairy prices, which have plummeted more than 30% over the last four months." "A lot has changed over recent months. International dairy prices are dramatically down 30% and are likely to go lower. The stark reality of the NZ dollar strengthening...
This article is so right...This is how the FED in the US works. Always moving on past news... are they not aware that more people are going out to party these days and taking expensive ubers around???
  • #6,655
  • Jul 15, 2014 1:32pm Jul 15, 2014 1:32pm
Mind Games?
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #6,656
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:05pm Jul 15, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I am not a fundamental guru to say the least, but I don't think the RBNZ will raise rates. Please correct me if I am wrong, but inflation isn't a problem at the moment. In addition, why would they want to put any extra pressure on the export industry? I know there are many other factors to consider, but you would think inflation and exports would rank pretty high on the list I hate to trade against the carry but my charts are telling me we need to visit the 8760-70 area before any further move up. I see some divergence and a fairly ugly...
Ugh, and again I bail out on my short and book 11 pips instead of the 40 that my chart told me to target
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #6,657
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:46pm Jul 15, 2014 5:46pm
Looks like a weak CPI number from the reaction just now.
  • #6,658
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:48pm Jul 15, 2014 5:48pm
Be .87 before too long.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #6,659
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:04pm Jul 15, 2014 6:04pm
I'd be carefull with this number. It's inline with what the RBNZ was expecting, which means there probably will be a increase in interest rates this month.
  • #6,660
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:05pm Jul 15, 2014 6:05pm
Quoting bogus
Be .87 before too long. {image}
2 taps and a break is not enough, more likely 3 taps and a big move up?
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