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  • #1,001
  • Jul 15, 2014 4:45am Jul 15, 2014 4:45am
Quoting Vantage
On the subject of when will move occur. News events at half past hour obviously otherwise the first 15 mins in a new candle are key times.
Do you mean first 15 mins of an hourly candle???If so then maybe we should have a 15 min grid on our charts??? Or an hrly one if its hrly you're referring to??
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,002
  • Jul 15, 2014 4:48am Jul 15, 2014 4:48am
Yes first 15 mins of the hour, those in and around LO and US open.
  • #1,003
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:12am Jul 15, 2014 5:12am
Hi clivepackham,

Short EU, is this the right entry?
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  • #1,004
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:39am Jul 15, 2014 5:39am
First GBPCHF trade went up 6 pips then BE and had another go but lost 5 pips on that.

Now here's what I'm learning from that and all the trading I'm doing here.

Buying gbpchf after a good news release is a good fundamental reason to buy GBPCHF surely everyone wants a good investment with the potential for a good return?? But the overiding driver for a market is making money or rather taking profit eg banking. It was the banking that overode the fundamentals and it will do every time!!

After that news spike there were guys holding good positions so keen to bank, the market was overbought, never mind that it was a news spike thats irrelevant. I gotta get that into my head its not enough that a pair looks good fundamentally long or short term, and that traders are buying it. I have to remember how the market works over and above all else.

Traders holding good positions must bank at sometime to take their profits. Its relevant on all timeframes but in particular here on the 1 minute. Thats what causes this constantly waving backwards and forwards of price. Thats why I struggle buying these overbought markets and selling oversold markets. I know a correction is imminent. I for one want to be buying either at or just after an oversold condition or selling just after an overbought condition.

I think this has always been my problem I like to see price going up strongly before I jump on but all too often I'm joining the move too late. Like this news trade today was a prime example. There was loads of good reason to buy it just not when its overbought got to wait for a sensible pullback before going long. Also its got to pullback to a Key level like now its pulled back to 1.5300 its worth considering.

For me going forward I am going to ask myself a simple question "Is this market over bought or over sold??? If so I'm not interested , only interested after a reversal from those levels and the more oversold or bought (+/-300 levels) the better. I've been doing the opposite for all too long and from today it stops!!!

I know these situations are all of my own making, but today it stops!!!

Either catch the move early or let it go!!!

The ideal setup for me now is an overbought or sold condition (+/-200 level) then price strongly crosses the MAs and I will be looking to buy or sell as near to the break and retest of the MAs as I can get away from the overbought or sold condition. Then when it turns into a strong trender I will already be on it from wave 3.

I will still be taking strong trenders if I catch the early move but also if I see one go seriously overbought or sold then I will be looking for the reversal rather than the continuation.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,005
  • Edited 6:03am Jul 15, 2014 5:46am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting pundit78
Hi clivepackham, Short EU, is this the right entry? {image}
sorry pundit78 bit late answering your post!!

And unfortunately the answer is no this is not the right entry, but to be fair to you, I've only just posted about it in above post.

Look at the move we've had the wave 3 and wave 5 you can see them very clearly and the 15min cci went overbought at -200 and has done nothing but come back ever since.

This is a typical reversal trade I'm afraid!! price will cross over the 100lwma and give us a buy signal.

I can see it doing it right now as I type!!!!

Sorry thats what I've been doing wrong !!! I've set you a bad example to follow!!!Will add a chart to this post in 2 minutes explaining what I'm saying.

One really important reason not to take this trade is the ADR too. Its at 40.8 and its normal ATR is 42.3.

So to summarise when we look at a TT look at its wave structure and consider the ADR before taking on any continuation trades, thats not to say they won't work, its just a matter of taking only the highest probability trade setups. Afterall there's enough of them on the 1 min charts so we can choose to be picky!!!

Sorry about misleading you but its not gonna happen any more I promise you!!
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,006
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:58am Jul 15, 2014 5:58am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} sorry pundit78 bit late answering your post!! no this is what I was referring to above sorry to say. Look at the move we've had the wave 3 and wave 5 you can see them very clearly and the 15min cci went overbought at -200 and has done nothing but come back ever since. this is a typical reversal trade I'm afraid!! price will cross over the 100lwma and give us a buy signal. I can see it doing it right now!!!! Sorry thats what I've been doing wrong !!! I've set you a bad example to follow!!!Will add a chart to this post in 2 minutes explaining...
Thanks clivepackham for the clarification, sorry actually I did not read the rules in this thread (do not get time due to job commitments) and just entered by looking at 1 min trend and it cost me 10 pips, no issue , I will definitely have a deep look into your posts and will try trading the 1 min tf the way you do, can you pls refer me your main posts which I should read to have more clarification (sorry for not reading the whole thread, again job commitments)
  • #1,007
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:08am Jul 15, 2014 6:08am
Quoting pundit78
{quote} Thanks clivepackham for the clarification, sorry actually I did not read the rules in this thread (do not get time due to job commitments) and just entered by looking at 1 min trend and it cost me 10 pips, no issue , I will definitely have a deep look into your posts and will try trading the 1 min tf the way you do, can you pls refer me your main posts which I should read to have more clarification (sorry for not reading the whole thread, again job commitments)
Don't worry my friend it wouldn't of done you much good as thats what I've been doing wrong too!!

Pres78 and Mr V. are the ones to listen too regarding the continuation trades I'm definitely looking at the reversal setups myself or early entries only in continuation trades, trying to catch wave 3 or wave 5 as the worst case. After that wait for the ABC move to end then maybe continue again but only IF and its a big IF for me. If the ATR has room left on it but again ok for a reversal.

Hope that helps.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,008
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:14am Jul 15, 2014 6:14am
Hi pundit78

Whilst I will stick to my theory that until signals rec'd to confirm otherwise US first choice is to continue the direction set by London. So whilst I'd be looking for eur down (again until solid signal to the contrary) I don't see an a b c for your eur sell. So for me on this method that wouldn't be a trade.

In fact one of the reasons I hate the early CT trades especially pre/early US session is that I've been nailed enough times and prefer to leave them alone, rather waiting for US to resume London direction.
  • #1,009
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:27am Jul 15, 2014 6:27am
Quoting Vantage
Hi pundit78 Whilst I will stick to my theory that until signals rec'd to confirm otherwise US first choice is to continue the direction set by London. So whilst I'd be looking for eur down (again until solid signal to the contrary) I don't see an a b c for your eur sell. So for me on this method that wouldn't be a trade. In fact one of the reasons I hate the early CT trades especially pre/early US session is that I've been nailed enough times and prefer to leave them alone, rather waiting for US to resume London direction.
Absolutely right Mr V. but I wasn't actually holding it up as a buy entry or reversal setup I just meant in answer to his question it was not a good continuation setup because it was more likely to go the other way than his way, thats all I meant.

Cheers
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,010
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:30am Jul 15, 2014 6:30am
Gotta go to work for a couple of hours catch up later.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,011
  • Jul 15, 2014 11:14am Jul 15, 2014 11:14am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} sorry pundit78 bit late answering your post!! And unfortunately the answer is no this is not the right entry, but to be fair to you, I've only just posted about it in above post. Look at the move we've had the wave 3 and wave 5 you can see them very clearly and the 15min cci went overbought at -200 and has done nothing but come back ever since. This is a typical reversal trade I'm afraid!! price will cross over the 100lwma and give us a buy signal. I can see it doing it right now as I type!!!! Sorry thats what I've been doing wrong !!! I've...
Can you pls share this template of yours, there is some difference in my MA, also I need ADR indicator as the current indcators I have hang my MT4.
  • #1,012
  • Jul 15, 2014 12:00pm Jul 15, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting Vantage
Hi pundit78 Whilst I will stick to my theory that until signals rec'd to confirm otherwise US first choice is to continue the direction set by London. So whilst I'd be looking for eur down (again until solid signal to the contrary) I don't see an a b c for your eur sell. So for me on this method that wouldn't be a trade. In fact one of the reasons I hate the early CT trades especially pre/early US session is that I've been nailed enough times and prefer to leave them alone, rather waiting for US to resume London direction.
Thanks .. Yes it was not a clear continuation or reversal pattern as per my chart, I should not have entered the trade.
  • #1,013
  • Jul 15, 2014 2:31pm Jul 15, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting pundit78
{quote} Can you pls share this template of yours, there is some difference in my MA, also I need ADR indicator as the current indcators I have hang my MT4.
Here you go and a couple of indicators you might need to go with it. Theres 2 ATR indys one just puts the figures up top of screen whereas martins ATR Indy actually puts a couple of levels on your chart to warn you that youre approaching ADR.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl #clives 1 minute scalper ha.tpl   275 KB | 518 downloads
File Type: ex4 Heiken_Ashi_Ma2.ex4   8 KB | 509 downloads
File Type: mq4 #Daily Range PeterE.mq4   2 KB | 518 downloads
File Type: ex4 Martins ATR Indy.ex4   6 KB | 578 downloads
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,014
  • Jul 15, 2014 9:29pm Jul 15, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Here you go and a couple of indicators you might need to go with it. Theres 2 ATR indys one just puts the figures up top of screen whereas martins ATR Indy actually puts a couple of levels on your chart to warn you that youre approaching ADR. {file} {file} {file} {file}
Thanks buddy.
  • #1,015
  • Jul 15, 2014 11:58pm Jul 15, 2014 11:58pm
NZD weakness over night due to a poor news release so I wonder if LO will pick it up and run with it or not???

No need to guess just watch and see what happens then jump on board for a few pips. Well thats the plan.

GBPNZD reacting nicely but a bit of R at 1.97000 break and retest there might be a nice starter???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,016
  • Jul 16, 2014 12:09am Jul 16, 2014 12:09am
Just some thoughts whilst we're waiting for some action.

What can we expect at these market opens?? Will NZD weakness continue or will London see it as an opportunity to buy NZD at a discount or is it just whatever goes up has gotta come down???

I've noticed that quite often the new session will reverse the previous session, now why is that???

Look at this example below as it happens quite a lot. Can we take advantage of this occurrence???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,017
  • Jul 16, 2014 12:24am Jul 16, 2014 12:24am
I like LO's like this with flat MAs it gives my TT indy a chance to catch the early movers.

Like the look of GBPNZD but gonna wait for a B&R of that 1.9700 level.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,018
  • Jul 16, 2014 1:00am Jul 16, 2014 1:00am
Getting some system signals here but don't like the fact we are overbought on all these pairs after overnight news, got caught like this yesterday so gonna hang fire.

Got a feeling if LO is going to carry on with the overnight NZD move then it will pull them back a bit first.

But the main thing is overbought/sold plus ATRs exceeded.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,019
  • Jul 16, 2014 1:19am Jul 16, 2014 1:19am
I'm taking pictures of my top 4 trenders every 15 mins or so to try and capture exactly what happens throughout FO and LO. This is an interesting one becos of the weak NZD driven by a news release.

Guess FO and LO want to join in the fun and carry on with it or are they going to see it as a discount day and an opportunity to buy the very strong(daily charts) NZD??

Who knows and to be honest, who cares??? You see the point of this strategy is to not actually "predict" what FO or LO or even NYO are gonna make of it?? No the idea is to sit back and watch for their reaction and which pair moves the strongest then just jump on board and hold on tight for the ride. basically just "follow the money".

Don't know why I keep getting up so early??? Should stay in bed a bit longer then after all the fighting stops have a look who's won and jump on board. Some days there won't even be a clear winner so no trade, but other days it will be painfully obvious and then we can jump on board with the joyous winner!!

Got 3 chances in everyday to find a trade too, TO , EO and NYO. Just catch one of those a day and that would be nice.

anyway as I'm taking snapshots here's how the battles going so far.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,020
  • Jul 16, 2014 1:23am Jul 16, 2014 1:23am
All change!!!
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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