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  • #981
  • Jul 15, 2014 1:39am Jul 15, 2014 1:39am
Overnight there wasn't really any dominating currencies and so far this morning maybe a bit of AUD weakness but am I too late to the ball???

Quite often find whatever the late overnight/early morning move is reversed first thing LO so not going to rush in headfirst. I'm always concerned when I first turn on my platform in the morning when I see TTs so oversold and bought at +200 levels, I still struggle with buying overbought and selling oversold markets. I know it works as we've seen but I'm just wary would rather catch em a bit earlier in the move. Trendline breaks of early moves works quite well as its usually the actual LO move which I've got a feeling happens just after LO.

Anyway no rush, its not a race is it?? Going to watch these pairs see what develops.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #982
  • Jul 15, 2014 1:47am Jul 15, 2014 1:47am
Here's my thoughts at the mo, I'm interested in these early moves but concerned I might be too late to the ball, but then again they might just keep going??? Who knows???
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  • #983
  • Jul 15, 2014 1:54am Jul 15, 2014 1:54am
Quoting clivepackham
One of the things that Martin tells me on a regular basis is that he developed his system by looking back at a days trading and identifying the perfect trades that he would of liked to of caught. Then he would try to identify the circumstances around those trades so as they started to develop next time he might have a chance of catching them. Well if its good enough for Martin then its good enough for me and luckily enough I now regularly take pictures of my charts throughout the day so I can see what my TT was showing as the best trades develop....
Hi Clive

The first point you are preaching to the converted, its the same message I have been trying to get across i.e. what do good trades look like?

Having a minimum TT of say 20. I still don't think this is appropriate. You said yourself that many trades that did not seem like much on TT scale went onto be winners. Perhaps you should consider signals (if this can be coded that is)according to trade rules for pairs that have:

- had last touch of cci 210 +100 or -100. I say last touch as we know when trend has appeared it can retrace within the +100 -100 range whilst the a b c is in process.
- price is above/below 2 ma's (yes I know that price can retrace between the ma's and when the a b c has formed would then quickly get a signal)
- cci 14 has had a retrace to opposite +100-100 or by 200 points on scale.

These are the basic trade parameters, then its up to the trader to look at those pairs and decide if a b c's are clean etc etc.

The slope of the TT indi makes most sense when trends are strong but it does give some difficulty sometimes in identifying the first system trade. That first move where its highly likely pa has moved out of an immediate range and retraced to test the break out point.

On the 1 min re-entry based only on ha colour change back to trend, your entries are largely based on a move back close to 100sma, how close is close? The good thing about a retrace to cci 14 +100-100 or 200 on scale is you do have a factual basis on back testing to see whether method is stacking up. So unless you have a method of saying how close to test of 100 sma qualifies as a trade I'd prefer to stick with the retrace above.
  • #984
  • Jul 15, 2014 1:54am Jul 15, 2014 1:54am
One positive for taking these early moves is that they are all have about 50% of their ATR left to go so it could definitely happen. I've just been bitten too often and for me now its about the high probability setups and trying to catch the earlier moves especially wave 3's.

Plenty of time if there's one good thing about trading 1 minute charts you know there's a new setup just around the corner.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #985
  • Jul 15, 2014 2:04am Jul 15, 2014 2:04am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hi Clive Perhaps you should consider signals (if this can be coded that is)according to trade rules for pairs that have: - had last touch of cci 210 +100 or -100. I say last touch as we know when trend has appeared it can retrace within the +100 -100 range whilst the a b c is in process. - price is above/below 2 ma's (yes I know that price can retrace between the ma's and when the a b c has formed would then quickly get a signal) - cci 14 has had a retrace to opposite +100-100 or by 200 points on scale. These are the basic trade parameters,...
Based on the list above here is gj's highlighted trade set ups see the red lines, more than enough time for this pair to have a look and wait for a b c. So if any of the above parameters are not met it wouldn't list the pair. In these cases the last item to click in place to signal a set up would be the cc1 14 retrace to opposite +100-100 level or 200 on scale.

I'm not looking to monitor every pair but a range of 10 or so would be more than enough I would think.
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  • #986
  • Jul 15, 2014 2:09am Jul 15, 2014 2:09am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hi Clive The first point you are preaching to the converted, The good thing about a retrace to cci 14 +100-100 or 200 on scale is you do have a factual basis on back testing to see whether method is stacking up. So unless you have a method of saying how close to test of 100 sma qualifies as a trade I'd prefer to stick with the retrace above.
Good morning Mr V.

Thanks nice to hear your views and yep agree with the details as described, I was only thinking about the HA candle colour change if TT +20 and probably just grab a handful b4 the major pullback comes. No worries just sharing thoughts.

As for these early moves I've been thinking the strategy is really to follow "The Money" as it comes to the table so I guess the question is what time does that happen more often than not???

I see today there's some news for GBP so I guess any GBP moves will come post news??

I am back testing charts visually to see what time they occur but not finished by a long shot. however my initial findings are there's sometimes a move from around LO that goes all morning or there's an initial minor move, the setup, then a mid morning reversal around 10.30ish. From your experience, whats your thoughts on best time to expect a move??
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #987
  • Jul 15, 2014 2:26am Jul 15, 2014 2:26am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Based on the list above here is gj's highlighted trade set ups see the red lines, more than enough time for this pair to have a look and wait for a b c. So if any of the above parameters are not met it wouldn't list the pair. In these cases the last item to click in place to signal a set up would be the cc1 14 retrace to opposite +100-100 level or 200 on scale. I'm not looking to monitor every pair but a range of 10 or so would be more than enough I would think. {image}
Great chart Mr V.

That is exactly what I'm after as the perfect reversal setup

1) Time of day, money comes to the table.

2) Nice sharp cross of the MA's quick banking, so positive reversal setup.

3) Pullbacks to the MA's break and retest of MA's and to answer how close?? If its a +100 14 CCI signal that turns, hit it, put stop other side.

4) This is the early entry on first LH to catch wave 3 and 5.

5) Close out at end of wave 5 or hold until 100lwma slope changes. (colour change on pres78's indy)

Trouble is that setup is not being highlighted on my TT is it on yours with your tighter settings??

My thoughts are to monitor 10 pairs like you say with an alert whenever price crosses the 100lwma in fact I have an alert for a 100lwma colour change, so I get alerted when price first crosses over positively.

These have got to be the setups we want as all major moves start like this. Leading to a bigger RR, our main goal here.

Plus we could identify best moves as the 210 CCI would usually be vastly overbought or oversold (+/-300 levels)
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #988
  • Jul 15, 2014 2:27am Jul 15, 2014 2:27am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Good morning Mr V. Thanks nice to hear your views and yep agree with the details as described, I was only thinking about the HA candle colour change if TT +20 and probably just grab a handful b4 the major pullback comes. No worries just sharing thoughts. As for these early moves I've been thinking the strategy is really to follow "The Money" as it comes to the table so I guess the question is what time does that happen more often than not??? I see today there's some news for GBP so I guess any GBP moves will come post news?? I am back testing...
My experience Frankies hour bank, LO if its quick as mentioned 50-70 pips that's likely it until US. More likely big move after 9.30 UK time than before. Is every day the same time exactly no. But its not a massive window period that you need to look at. Then if LO is very quiet obviously the move is still coming.

Basically same story with US open, its a relatively small window period.

2hrs around both LO and US open, so around 4 hrs a day the main times.
  • #989
  • Jul 15, 2014 2:37am Jul 15, 2014 2:37am
Hi Clive

If I could code I'd be looking for alerts that signal once these rules complied with:

- had last touch of cci 210 +100 or -100.
I say last touch as we know when trend has appeared it can retrace within the +100 -100 range whilst the a b c is in process. That last touch could be 20 candles back. On the very first trade pa often retreats back into the +100-100 range, only hitting the +100-100 level at break of b point when there would be no time to get trade on if that's when you get the alert.
- price is above/below 2 ma's (yes I know that price can retrace between the ma's and when the a b c has formed would then quickly get a signal)
- cci 14 has had a retrace to opposite +100-100 or by 200 points on scale. This would definitely need a look back function.

These are the basic trade parameters, then its up to the trader to look at those pairs and decide if a b c's are clean, wait for ha colour change etc etc.

All the nice set ups on the above gj chart comply. And generally with a minute or two before the trade goes. Enough time to scan charts and set up trade.

Anyway especially for first trade the TT indi is only a small part of the equation.
  • #990
  • Jul 15, 2014 2:57am Jul 15, 2014 2:57am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} My experience Frankies hour bank, LO if its quick as mentioned 50-70 pips that's likely it until US. More likely big move after 9.30 UK time than before. Is every day the same time exactly no. But its not a massive window period that you need to look at. Then if LO is very quiet obviously the move is still coming. Basically same story with US open, its a relatively small window period. 2hrs around both LO and US open, so around 4 hrs a day the main times.
Ok so heres what I'm thinking.

There are 2 types of setups for us to trade both within the LO and NYO times above.

1) The continuation Trade.

2) The Reversal Trade.

I am more than happy that the TT indy brings us the Continuation trade setups day after day, maybe tinker with settings but for for continuations I'm happy with the 100LWMA as the reference MA.

But for the reversal setup I reckon an alert that tells us when price crosses the 100lwma or even better when the slope changes on the 100lwma eg colour change as per chart below. Also the best reversals can be qualified by the level the 210 CCI goes overbought or sold previous to the 100lwma slope change.

See chart below for perfect example.

Yep gotta say thats what we should be looking for as well as the continuation trades. But to be honest these are my preference as I'm struggling to sell or buy over sold or bought pairs.

There will be losers for sure but the winners will be far bigger which in my book is what its all about.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #991
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:08am Jul 15, 2014 3:08am
Most important thing here for me is to remember what we're after, The Money!!!

Simple as that we're following the money at market opens when most of the money comes to the table.

We should only look for our continuations and reversal setups in those times thats absolutely critical to this strategy.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #992
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:11am Jul 15, 2014 3:11am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Ok so heres what I'm thinking. There are 2 types of setups for us to trade both within the LO and NYO times above. 1) The continuation Trade. 2) The Reversal Trade. I am more than happy that the TT indy brings us the Continuation trade setups day after day, maybe tinker with settings but for for continuations I'm happy with the 100LWMA as the reference MA. But for the reversal setup I reckon an alert that tells us when price crosses the 100lwma or even better when the slope changes on the 100lwma eg colour change as per chart below. Also...
Apart from the very first trend line that you show all the others look like 100% system trades as per the rules i.e. cci 210 hits +100, cci 14 retrace to -100 or 200 on scale, pa above ma's with angle/separation.

You seem to be putting in an over whelming effort to solve a problem that perhaps doesn't exist? It seems like we've had this conversation about 20 times before!!

Pres78 time for that rolling pin.
  • #993
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:14am Jul 15, 2014 3:14am
Looking back at my first post this morning although the EURAUD and GBPAUD have made progress and continued nicely but not too quickly and to me the real money hasn't started to hit the table yet so will wait for the news and see what develops after that.

Gonna keep my eye open for any trend reversals after the news just has that feel about it this morning.

Time for a cuppa, tea anyone????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #994
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:17am Jul 15, 2014 3:17am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Apart from the very first trend line that you show all the others look like 100% system trades as per the rules i.e. cci 210 hits +100, cci 14 retrace to -100 or 200 on scale, pa above ma's with angle/separation. You seem to be putting in an over whelming effort to solve a problem that perhaps doesn't exist? It seems like we've had this conversation about 20 times before!! Pres78 time for that rolling pin.
Ha ha yea I know but I'm like a dog with a bone, I won't let go!!!!

I'm absolutely convinced our best trades will come from buying oversold markets and selling overbought ones. Yes they will turn into nice strong continuation trades but the initial setup will come from a cross of that 100lwma and a retest entry.

Thats all i'm saying........
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #995
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:22am Jul 15, 2014 3:22am
Good setup on EURUSD but too near the news for me
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  • #996
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:23am Jul 15, 2014 3:23am
Pre news TTs lets see how it changes after the news???
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  • #997
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:32am Jul 15, 2014 3:32am
Knew we should of bought that GBPAUD this morning!!!!!!

I've often wandered if they have some pre-news leak and just slowly load it all morning????
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  • #998
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:38am Jul 15, 2014 3:38am
Post news TT's usual suspects wait for a pullback?????

Bit of an over reaction isn't it to a fairly small differential????
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #999
  • Jul 15, 2014 4:14am Jul 15, 2014 4:14am
Thought I'd have a go at a little post news trade picked the strongest/weakest combination eg GBPCHF at BE now so gonna see if it goes or not???

Got 2 chances I guess!!!
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  • #1,000
  • Jul 15, 2014 4:35am Jul 15, 2014 4:35am
On the subject of when will move occur. News events at half past hour obviously otherwise the first 15 mins in a new candle are key times.
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