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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #27,861
  • Jul 14, 2014 9:26pm Jul 14, 2014 9:26pm
Quoting nic73
Hi Binnie, Good day. Read your post 27847. Kiwi means NZDUSD, correct? I have been eying on this pair foe couple of weeks now. I noticed from the monthly TF, that price has almost reached it's high since 2005 i.e. 0.8841. Thus, I am cautious about trading this pair. Either it is about to reverse or move upwards to break 0.8841. What do you think? I could be wrong, being an amateur. Nicholas
Howdy Nic,
Yep Kiwi is NU.

The attack on the highs is prolonged alright. I have no idea what will happen next. All we can do is anticipate our next moves. Thus form a plan A & B. Once direction is confirmed we have our actions mapped out in advance. IMHO I was looking last week at a possible H & S on the H4 but the BRN has held all attempts to go lower so far. The Weekly shows a divergence so I have allowed for a pullback in my plans.
Either way, once price moves up or down, I have my actions laid out ready to go. Of course , being a KIWI , I am a bit biased about how strong our Dollar is. Far too high for our Produce & Farming exporters and not high enough for our importers and those lucky enough to travel overseas

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  • #27,862
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:01am Jul 15, 2014 3:01am
UPDATES :

Kiwi & Aussie waking up ???

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anyone watching today ??
  • #27,863
  • Edited 5:20am Jul 15, 2014 4:43am | Edited 5:20am
I had gone short on AUD/NZD at 1.0655 with target at 1.0633 and stop at 1.0675.

I got stopped out . But the high for the day shows 1.0672 . This has happened a few times that the stop is hit if the price gets within a few pips. Does this happen with other brokers too or is this an MBTrading scam.

I have sent them an email with the details.

Added later:
I just realized (after some googling) that i see the bid price on the chart, but the ask price is applicable when i am buying; which is what happened when i got stopped on the short. I am learning... slowly.
  • #27,864
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:14am Jul 15, 2014 5:14am
Quoting Mathus
I had gone short on AUD/NZD at 1.0655 with target at 1.0633 and stop at 1.0675. I got stopped out . But the high for the day shows 1.0672 . This has happened a few times that the stop is hit if the price gets within a few pips. Does this happen with other broekers too or is this an MBTrading scam. I have sent them an email with the details.
Mathus - what was the spread for the pair. I am guessing you were taken out by the spread ??Let us know their response mate.
  • #27,865
  • Jul 15, 2014 5:34am Jul 15, 2014 5:34am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Mathus - what was the spread for the pair. I am guessing you were taken out by the spread ??Let us know their response mate.
I agree, spread should not be more that 2 pips, I guess. This is my current spread on AU/NZ 1.06444/1.06459.
  • #27,866
  • Jul 15, 2014 7:21am Jul 15, 2014 7:21am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Mathus - what was the spread for the pair. I am guessing you were taken out by the spread ??Let us know their response mate.
It is the spread, must say I have not been paying enough attention to it. Currently AUD/NZD is 1.0644/1.0649 thats 5 pips.

I called MBTrading trade desk and asked them about the advertised "tight spreads as low as 2 pips". His answer was AUD/NZD is an exotic pair. So the prize difference can fluctuate quite a bit.

I am only trading at 10cents a pip but still its annoying when you get stopped out on a winning trade. I guess I have to place my stops taking into account the spread. Also research other brokers.
  • #27,867
  • Jul 15, 2014 3:13pm Jul 15, 2014 3:13pm
My Aussie Trade

Took this last nite. Have been waiting for a strong move out of the consolidation zone. Excited when the move came. Played safe & moved to lower 15min - waited for my entry & jumped in. Looked good for a very short few minutes but stalled & turned around. Small stoploss so not too devastating on the bank account.
I knew there was some news a bit later but had a bit of time up my sleeve before then.

Market 3 - Binnie 0 ( YUK ) My turn will come

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  • #27,868
  • Edited Jul 16, 2014 8:32am Jul 15, 2014 4:32pm | Edited Jul 16, 2014 8:32am
NZDUSD:
I cannot win them all!
But I have been looking at this one for some time.

On the weekly: ( no chart shown)
On the Making of a third bounce on the 21ema(blue)- already divergence on the macd…

On the daily:
Three bounces, on e on the 8ema, second and third on the 21ema,still divergence on the macd…

On the 4 hrs chart:
The last bounce on the 21ema, went through the 21ema, pulled back and move away down…
Breaks the 89sma(purple), just pulled back and now a possible start of a move away…

on a free ride now...

38 pips secured 18:59hrs
now 52 pips secured 20:09hrs:blush:
now secured 64 pips 22:44 hrs
and I have almost forgot about the other platform: secured 46 pips! (it's late for me!)trade closed,hit by SL +48 pips 9:29hrs
trade closed: gain 73 pips about 15-20 pips shy of my target. 9:28hrs
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Yvon
  • #27,869
  • Jul 15, 2014 4:55pm Jul 15, 2014 4:55pm
Current short the AUDUSD after price pulled back to 200 SMA forming a pin bar looking for price to move down to 365 EMA before bouncing.
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Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity
  • #27,870
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:00pm Jul 15, 2014 6:00pm
Quoting ShanghaiMoon
Current short the AUDUSD after price pulled back to 200 SMA forming a pin bar looking for price to move down to 365 EMA before bouncing. {image} {image}
Nice Chart & explanation Shanghai,
I have a feeling I may have got in to my short a bit soon. Next action for me on this one is still Bearish also. Weekly signs of Divergence, Daily shows a H & S forming. I still have a worry about that T/Line Support just below so will need a BPM here so I can play again

I think your FLIGHT PLAN is awesome - thanks for highlighting its use to me. Never considered it until you have shown me here.

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  • #27,871
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:07pm Jul 15, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting trademin
NZDUSD: I cannot win them all! But I have been looking at this one for some time. On the weekly: ( no chart shown) On the Making of a third bounce on the 21ema(blue)- already divergence on the macd… On the daily: Three bounces, on e on the 8ema, second and third on the 21ema,still divergence on the macd… On the 4 hrs chart: The last bounce on the 21ema, went through the 21ema, pulled back and move away down… Breaks the 89sma(purple), just pulled back and now a possible start of a move away… on a free ride now... 38 pips secured 18:59hrs {image}...
A masterly stroke Yvon - your patience was rewarded for sure. And with the added help of a slightly worse than expected CPI from NZ, I wouldn't be surprised to see that 0.8700 level get touched. Good on you my friend. Makes my loss a bit easier to take knowing you have given the market a quick bashing.
  • #27,872
  • Jul 15, 2014 6:11pm Jul 15, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Nice Chart & explanation Shanghai, I have a feeling I may have got in to my short a bit soon. Next action for me on this one is still Bearish also. Weekly signs of Divergence, Daily shows a H & S forming. I still have a worry about that T/Line Support just below so will need a BPM here so I can play again I think your FLIGHT PLAN is awesome - thanks for highlighting its use to me. Never considered it until you have shown me here. {image} {image}
Let me know if you want me to post the excel file if you'd like to use it.

Glad to see we are seeing the same thing on the AUD, makes me feel more confident in my short. now only time will tell! hopefully we will have a smooth landing all the way to our destination!

does any one know where philip was posting his old weekly out look videos?
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity
  • #27,873
  • Edited Jul 16, 2014 6:42am Jul 15, 2014 6:42pm | Edited Jul 16, 2014 6:42am
AUDUSD:
The support, the channel as well as the 89sma(purpleģ) barrier needs to be broken…will see!

edit: Not much on that one. Has been hit by Sl, cause too close,then hit again on the TL(yellow). –divergence on the macd for now, so closed with a small 1 pip!
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Yvon
  • #27,874
  • Jul 15, 2014 7:05pm Jul 15, 2014 7:05pm
dollar index:
I do not trade it but there is a break out with a strong bar, not necessary that it win the war on the bearish tendency ,since it could bounce on the 365, back and forth,but that was a good reason why some pair just lost it to the usd dollar.
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Yvon
  • #27,875
  • Edited Jul 16, 2014 9:45am Jul 15, 2014 7:52pm | Edited Jul 16, 2014 9:45am
EURUSD:

On the weekly:
Multiple bounce on the 21ema (blue), then breaks the 21ema, pulled back to it , then started to move away…
I can see divergence that supported the move down…
But it is clearer on the weekly than the daily chart, but still something can be done:
Daily:
The pair broke the 21ema twice, then moved away down.

4hrs chart:
If the weekly as well as the daily , the pair is moving away down, my guess , I should possibly anticipate a move away down
I sold it twice on the break of trend lines.
40 pips secured 23:35hrs
one of my SL s been hit , trade closed on that one: + 46 pips 10:30hrs
just been hit on the second SL, trade closed on that one too: +65 pips 10:44hrs
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Yvon
  • #27,876
  • Jul 15, 2014 8:11pm Jul 15, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting ShanghaiMoon
{quote} Let me know if you want me to post the excel file if you'd like to use it. Glad to see we are seeing the same thing on the AUD, makes me feel more confident in my short. now only time will tell! hopefully we will have a smooth landing all the way to our destination! does any one know where philip was posting his old weekly out look videos?
Let me know if you want me to post the excel file if you'd like to use it. - Yes please buddy. I would like to have a good look at this
Thanks.
  • #27,877
  • Jul 15, 2014 9:35pm Jul 15, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting ShanghaiMoon
{quote} Let me know if you want me to post the excel file if you'd like to use it. Glad to see we are seeing the same thing on the AUD, makes me feel more confident in my short. now only time will tell! hopefully we will have a smooth landing all the way to our destination! does any one know where philip was posting his old weekly out look videos?



does any one know where philip was posting his old weekly out look videos?[/quote]

Not sure if this is what you are looking for - if it is , then enjoy



https://onedrive.live.com/?cid=30d11...eqk4FU4m4Mo%24
  • #27,878
  • Edited 3:30am Jul 16, 2014 3:12am | Edited 3:30am
Hi,

Regarding AUDNZD and NZDUSD. I was watching on these two, Tuesday 15 July.

AUDNZD in my opinion, I won't trade or maybe wait for BPM. But of course sometimes, price won't do that, it will just run all the way when it break out of a xertain area. I have a short term TL where price was stalling. And from my past trade, I just got killed too many time, and I learn my lesson. And I remember there was also some important red new coming so I opt to stay out.

NZDUSD, stayed out for the similar reason. But has I paid attention to H1 TF, I might have gone in. Waited for BPM too. But too bad both pairs have gone all the away and very far. Nothing I could do but wait for the next opportunity.

BTW, Yvon has given me great insight on trading situation like NZDUSD - using daily and weekly. And Binnie and the rest for you posts on AU and Kiwi. Learn a lot from you guys.

Nicholas
  • #27,879
  • Jul 16, 2014 3:45am Jul 16, 2014 3:45am
TOO MUCH RED NEWS

What do you guys reckon - seems we gotta be so careful of all this damn news. Is there any of these that can be semi - ignored or are these all important to rates.??
I was really keen to go in long at close of this current RB setup. Have decided that I should obey my own plan and sit this out in case the USA gives some really strong news which could then kill off the Aussie and send it plummeting further??

Any comments you guys?

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  • #27,880
  • Jul 16, 2014 7:18am Jul 16, 2014 7:18am
Quoting nic73
Hi, Regarding AUDNZD and NZDUSD. I was watching on these two, Tuesday 15 July. AUDNZD in my opinion, I won't trade or maybe wait for BPM. But of course sometimes, price won't do that, it will just run all the way when it break out of a xertain area. I have a short term TL where price was stalling. And from my past trade, I just got killed too many time, and I learn my lesson. And I remember there was also some important red new coming so I opt to stay out. NZDUSD, stayed out for the similar reason. But has I paid attention to H1 TF, I might have...
Thanks Nic,

Since the weekly, daily and 4hrs and so on, are the same thing, but expressed a different way, sometime it worth observing action, momentum, rhythm on the longer term. So anticipation can be done clearer.- my guess is the ride down is not quite finished yet. Maybe some light pull back to come , but still expected a continuation of trend…B ut , again, I could be completely wrong here!
My expectation in AUDUSD is still about 150 pips down to come , maybe not today but if the dollar index keep climbing, the ride down , then, should materialize.

In the NZDUSD , my guess, still about 40 pips down, for the first target.
The EURUSD, I am expecting about 100 pips down to go, for a beginning...
The PPI should give me a hint this morning,
But again, will see…
Yvon
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