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NZD/USD

  • #6,601
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:19pm Jul 13, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Agreed. Fitch also thinks so as they said last week when they upgraded NZ. About the only spanner in the works I can see in the near future could possibly be a change of govt at the upcoming general election....whether that will happen is something that we will just have to wait and see. For those picking tops here....do your research. Picking tops and bottoms is a fools game....always will be. There is no reason to sell NU at this stage, there is no bear signs whatsoever. Simply saying 'the Kiwi is too high' is stupid. People said the same...
Relevancy is historical high. NU is historical high levels which to break higher and higher requires solid fundamentals to back it up.
Not happening under soft commodity prices now.
USD is oversold on all fronts and corrections are in order.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,602
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:26pm Jul 13, 2014 10:26pm
Its obvious isn't it?..

Attached Image
  • #6,603
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:30pm Jul 13, 2014 10:30pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
Its obvious isn't it?.. {image}
Another very good point, not just on FF across the board brokers. Some even at 100% short side
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #6,604
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:34pm Jul 13, 2014 10:34pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
Its obvious isn't it?.. {image}
95% fail is a myth
closer and more truthful number is 70-30%
Taking a position contrary to majority retail positions does not by default imbed an edge.There is no statistical edge.Retail traders lose on poor money management mostly not direction of the market.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,605
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:35pm Jul 13, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Another very good point, not just on FF across the board brokers. Some even at 100% short side
Please post any statistic backing your view.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,606
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:05pm Jul 13, 2014 11:05pm
Gidday NZ

Been chasing the NZ pairs down also

Pot is boiling away under these NZ pairs

Looking for a dream trade back 1.97+ GBP/NZ

EUR/NZ 1.57+

Just need to bottom out
  • #6,607
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:26pm Jul 13, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
Its obvious isn't it?.. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FX-winning-rate_249.png Size: 37 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #6,608
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:26pm Jul 13, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
Its obvious isn't it?.. {image}
NOT!!!
for every position there is an equal counter. obviously it does not have to be with the same broker.
  • #6,609
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:34pm Jul 13, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Relevancy is historical high. NU is historical high levels which to break higher and higher requires solid fundamentals to back it up. Not happening under soft commodity prices now. USD is oversold on all fronts and corrections are in order.
I agree with you up to a point....to break the 8840 top will require something fundamental, either from the greenback or the kiwi, The has the CPI data this week and the interest rate next week. Either of those could do it. The USD just shrugs off good USA news, and that tells a story of it's own!

USD being 'oversold' is meaningless...it's technical, not fundamental.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #6,610
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:41pm Jul 13, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I agree with you up to a point....to break the 8840 top will require something fundamental, either from the greenback or the kiwi, The has the CPI data this week and the interest rate next week. Either of those could do it. The USD just shrugs off good USA news, and that tells a story of it's own! USD being 'oversold' is meaningless...it's technical, not fundamental.
technically the USD just bounced off 80, and it will bounce higher.

my dollar chart posted many days ago: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post7579759
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #6,611
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:41pm Jul 13, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Relevancy is historical high. NU is historical high levels which to break higher and higher requires solid fundamentals to back it up. Not happening under soft commodity prices now. USD is oversold on all fronts and corrections are in order.
infact it does not need anything to go higher. it can crawl like this for hours and reach the highs. rbnz has almost given up to the fact the kiwi will stay high for rest of the year and I think they are mentally prepared for it. shorts are badly trapped now and even if it falls 30 pips now they are still trapped.
  • #6,612
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:48pm Jul 13, 2014 11:48pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} infact it does not need anything to go higher. it can crawl like this for hours and reach the highs. rbnz has almost given up to the fact the kiwi will stay high for rest of the year and I think they are mentally prepared for it. shorts are badly trapped now and even if it falls 30 pips now they are still trapped.
There is decent chance they will not raise the interest rate on July 24th. NU is not falling because there is expectation.
As far as NU staying up on this levels historically it never did.
2011 high 8840 dropped to 8247 in 1 week
NU never stayed up too long at high levels.I am keeping my shorts and feel confident my TP will be reached.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,613
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:55pm Jul 13, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} There is decent chance they will not raise the interest rate on July 24th. NU is not falling because there is expectation. As far as NU staying up on this levels historically it never did. 2011 high 8840 dropped to 8247 in 1 week NU never stayed up too long at high levels.I am keeping my shorts and feel confident my TP will be reached.
there is no reason why they will not hike rates. CPI print this week will nail the hammer on that. their deputy governor mcdermott said that interest rates will increase. so basically he has given an indicator on july 24th decision
  • #6,614
  • Jul 13, 2014 11:58pm Jul 13, 2014 11:58pm
sell rallies on kiwi and target 200/300 pips lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #6,615
  • Jul 14, 2014 12:02am Jul 14, 2014 12:02am
Quoting ffleo
sell rallies on kiwi and target 200/300 pips lower. {image}
The barrier at .88 seem so strong. Do you think it can break through on maybe bad comments from Draghi later? No matter what the news maybe....this one keep snapping back as if there are computers programmed to immediately purchase.
  • #6,616
  • Jul 14, 2014 12:05am Jul 14, 2014 12:05am
July 14 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand business confidence fell from a 20-year high in the second quarter, based on the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, but most economists focussed on signs in the survey that inflation is accelerating.
The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in the second quarter for an annual pace of 1.8 percent, according to a Reuters survey. The government figures due for release on Wednesday would mark the fastest inflation since the third quarter of 2011, when prices reflected the 2010 hike in good and services tax to 15 percent.
Market consensus for CPI is just ahead of the Reserve Bank on 0.3 percent for the quarter and 1.7 percent annual. The data comes after the QSBO last week showed a net 90.6 percent of respondents expected to increase capacity utilisation, above the long-run average for at least the fifth straight quarter. A net 33 percent of firms surveyed expect to lift prices in the next three months, the second quarter in a row where expectations were above the long-run average.
The net number of firms that saw capacity as a constraint rose to 15.1 percent last quarter, almost twice the long-run average.
As the QSBO showed, "a growing number of firms are saying that they not only intend to raise their prices, but are successfully doing so," Michael Gordon, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp, said in his CPI preview.
If expectations are met, the Reserve Bank will have no reason not to raise the official cash rate a quarter point to 3.5 percent on July 24, the highest level since December 2008. The central bank tries to keep inflation near the mid-point of its 1 percent-to3 percent target range.

Gordon sees food and electricity prices leading the gains in second-quarter inflation. Food prices rose in each month of the second quarter, while in the electricity industry, grid and network costs are being passed on to consumers and businesses.
Tradable inflation is likely to remain low over the coming year, given the strength of the kiwi dollar, which is set to test its post-float high of 88.42 US cents this week. Economists at ASB say the damping effect of overall inflation from weak tradable inflation "is likely to lessen over 2015 and 2016" as the kiwi dollar falls and retailers fatten their margins.
"There are signs underlying inflation pressures will continue to lift over the coming year," the economists said in a note. "We expect the annual rate of non-tradable inflation will edge up towards 3.7 percent by late 2015 as the NZ economy gains further momentum."
  • #6,617
  • Jul 14, 2014 2:40am Jul 14, 2014 2:40am
little more than a month ago NU was 0.84 and EVERYONE KNEW it was just going down more. Now EVERYONE KNOWS it will go to 0.90 on it's way to parity and beyond. Have things really changed that much in the last month???
  • #6,618
  • Jul 14, 2014 4:31am Jul 14, 2014 4:31am
Quoting iNZane
little more than a month ago NU was 0.84 and EVERYONE KNEW it was just going down more. Now EVERYONE KNOWS it will go to 0.90 on it's way to parity and beyond. Have things really changed that much in the last month???
The NU at parity would destroy its economy. 25% of its GDP is from exports. Why would anyone buy stuff from New Zealand when you could get it from the same price in the US?
  • #6,619
  • Edited 7:39am Jul 14, 2014 7:29am | Edited 7:39am
Quoting iNZane
little more than a month ago NU was 0.84 and EVERYONE KNEW it was just going down more. Now EVERYONE KNOWS it will go to 0.90 on it's way to parity and beyond. Have things really changed that much in the last month???
Yes, only thing keeping NZD that unnaturally low was expectation of intervention from RBNZ. They told that they could intervene if NZD stay this high, but wouldn't be able to do that if they had to rise interest rate.

After that they raised interest rate, so that means intervention is of the table for at least 1 year. And now NZD will go to its fair value of above parity.

@DonaldPump:
Like they would be first central bank that destroyed economy

Besides, governors paycheck is tied with inflation, bigger inflation, lower salary. Rule doesn't say anything about exchange rate. So what you think is more important to governor, or the government that put that rule?
  • #6,620
  • Jul 14, 2014 7:45am Jul 14, 2014 7:45am
Quoting iNZane
little more than a month ago NU was 0.84 and EVERYONE KNEW it was just going down more. Now EVERYONE KNOWS it will go to 0.90 on it's way to parity and beyond. Have things really changed that much in the last month???

Spoke my mind
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