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AUD/USD

  • #82,401
  • Jul 11, 2014 9:58am Jul 11, 2014 9:58am
boy when this guy farts.....huge smell
  • #82,402
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:05am Jul 11, 2014 10:05am
Done reading the transcript. I like Steven better. He made a lot of sense. Better than Mario. He give clear message (imo) 1. No rate increase till end of year. 2. He uncomfortable with high exchange rate, but admit nothing he can do about it. 3. Foreign investment inflow slowing down.
What do you think fellas? I do think we pretty close to multi years high, before we can play big swing. Any opinion?
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #82,403
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:32am Jul 11, 2014 10:32am
Personally like the short side while showing inability to stay above these areas.
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There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #82,404
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:51am Jul 11, 2014 10:51am
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  • #82,405
  • Jul 11, 2014 11:47am Jul 11, 2014 11:47am
Quoting LizardGizzard
Personally like the short side while showing inability to stay above these areas. {image}
currently no man's zone but i have to agree, the chart is becoming slightly bearish but bear has one small problem - rising gold may be a good support for aud
As Above, So Below
  • #82,406
  • Jul 11, 2014 12:44pm Jul 11, 2014 12:44pm
well, quite an uneventful week of grinding sideways. every time there is momentum some news takes wind from aussie sails, however, the ability to continuously bounce back shows there is a lot of strength.
  • #82,407
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:05pm Jul 11, 2014 2:05pm
Imo this is the .94 battle being fought. Still could go either way but if it breaks the lower TL it should head south strongly with a H&S like formation at the major resistance line and breaking the rising trend. I know it's not a traditional H&S but I have traded this before and the reasons for a H&S formation need to understood. Currently I am long with partial taken @ .9403 and just missed B.E. @.9374 by 1 pip.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #82,408
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:12pm Jul 11, 2014 2:12pm
Looks like only the FED will be able to lower A/U rate
  • #82,409
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:30pm Jul 11, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting Ken A
Looks like only the FED will be able to lower A/U rate
That statement by Stevens was interesting and informative (especially to a fundie newb) but I am still beyond choosing a direction from it though I wasn't concentrating on AU direction rather just info. The part about China (though probably old news) suggests our exports may suffer lt... again, interpreting not my forte.

My pov is just from technical stance but the break in the lower daily TL wont be confirmed until the lower hrly TL is broken. Till then I am bullish with hopefully a run back to the top. Here is another example of the H&S like formation that I mentioned above that shows a weakening of bulls strength. There are more convincing bullish H&S's on the lt view though. This is just one possibility.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #82,410
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:40pm Jul 11, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} That statement by Stevens was interesting and informative (especially to a fundie newb) but I am still beyond choosing a direction from it though I wasn't concentrating on AU direction rather just info. The part about China (though probably old news) suggests our exports may suffer lt... again, interpreting not my forte. My pov is just from technical stance but the break in the lower daily TL wont be confirmed until the lower hrly TL is broken. Till then I am bullish with hopefully a run back to the top. Here is another example of the H&S...
Poloz and Stevens are singing the same tune that FED should raise rate sooner

That message is pretty clear to what they can and can not do

20 pips drop by Stevens and look at where it's now

Or maybe change AUDUSD to USDAUD lol
  • #82,411
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:49pm Jul 11, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Poloz and Stevens are singing the same tune that FED should raise rate sooner That message is pretty clear to what they can and can not do 20 pips drop by Stevens and look at where it's now Or maybe change AUDUSD to USDAUD lol

haha shouldn't come to that, they are painting a nice picture of "confidence".... until the bubble bursts.

Im out, have a good weekend all.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #82,412
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:57pm Jul 11, 2014 3:57pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #82,413
  • Jul 11, 2014 9:21pm Jul 11, 2014 9:21pm
The AUDUSD stays below the 0.9400 level, but it could open to the upside on sunday, because at the end of the session it tried to recover a little bit.
  • #82,414
  • Edited 2:59am Jul 12, 2014 12:13am | Edited 2:59am
Next weeks Plan for E/CAD Short around 1.463xx to 1.455xx, Then go LONG from around 1.455xx Target 1.49300 ( All this if the price moves according to PLAN)
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #82,415
  • Edited 7:18am Jul 12, 2014 6:34am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting TheMadMonk
{quote} *sigh* Yeah. Opportunity missed over here....

Can't even find a lessons-learned out of it either. I replay it and like my decision making process so maybe that's the lesson. I felt that they might make a run on those stops so I had to set mine clear of all that. But how far back? What if there's a heap of us planning that and they just run those stops as well? What if I'm wrong and everything prints green? Would hate to have a wide stop then but it's major news so a small stop won't do. The supply I was looking at came out of a CZ, not...
I can't tell you what to do but can tell you the mistake that I have done yesterday;

USDCAD H1
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1405082323


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1405082864

The mistakes:

1. I trade eco data and during data spike normally switch to H4 to see larger swing which I didn't.
2. My estimation the data will be bad miss by a hair but not so weak.

Missed opportunity....

All that lead me to making wrong decision to close the long and flip to short because I see the supply level based on H1 and failed to react fast enough to the actual data than my estimation. I didn't prepare myself with a fall back plan if my estimation contradicted actual data. Instead of closing the long for +40 pips should have let it run likely to see 1.090 in near term with +300 pips.

If you are selling support and get S/O it's your fault technically and fundamentally.
If you are buying support and get S/O it's your fault technically and fundamentally.

Edit:

USDCAD Daily
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1405167236
  • #82,416
  • Jul 12, 2014 10:10am Jul 12, 2014 10:10am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Excellent Friday close at .9392
Hey ken, What r the chances of a pullback on E/CAD (Mon, Tue)
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #82,417
  • Jul 12, 2014 10:19am Jul 12, 2014 10:19am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Hey ken, What r the chances of a pullback on E/CAD (Mon, Tue)
Just maybe

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  • #82,418
  • Jul 12, 2014 10:27am Jul 12, 2014 10:27am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Just maybe {image}
Thanks
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #82,419
  • Jul 12, 2014 11:15am Jul 12, 2014 11:15am
my view about aud/usd
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #82,420
  • Jul 12, 2014 1:39pm Jul 12, 2014 1:39pm
My sentiment for the upcoming weeks...

having knowing the strong correlation... what happened to usd/cad is just the beginning of what is going to happen to aud/usd

venceremos
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
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