Cross Market Analysis | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Looking for Death Cross and Golden Cross indicators 4 replies

Rsi cross indicator? (NOT cross 50, etc) 44 replies

Whats the point of applying Technical Analysis to cross pairs?? 4 replies

Royal Cross/Fresh Cross 7 replies

COT analysis on cross pairs 5 replies

Attachments: Cross Market Analysis
Exit Attachments

Cross Market Analysis

  • #101
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:20pm Jul 11, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Thanks Hope not asking too many questions here
its fine, I encourage people to ask away... its kinda my job anyway!
  • #102
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:48pm Jul 11, 2014 2:48pm
I *dont* work at MS, they just happen to have put a note out that was *very* similar to what I wrote about...

hehe, MS' fair value model is 1.1021. So different to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 70 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MTNA20140711407617.pdf   65 KB | 1,043 downloads
  • #103
  • Jul 12, 2014 7:14am Jul 12, 2014 7:14am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} Can't really look at it like that, more the direction they go.

For example over the past month or so, the USDCAD has weakened, while at the same time the interest rate spread has increased. Now its quite clear to see that this is strange. Its quite clear to see that the correlation is very high normally. And on a theory, this is odd too (as per how FX rates are calculated)

This being said, Interest rates pressures DO without a shadow of doubt influence market participants in FX, so normally (I stress normally...
Been thinking about the bolded line above is probably due to technical correction?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 30 KB
  • #104
  • Jul 12, 2014 11:18am Jul 12, 2014 11:18am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Been thinking about the bolded line above is probably due to technical correction? {image}
one thing you've got to remember, hardly anyone (with size) trades based upon technicals.

To think that technicals "cause" a move is very dangerous thinking. They don't. There is no debate to that.

Some indicators tend to have a >50% hit rate, but its more confirmation bias in hind-sight unfortunately. But, at the end of the day, a move and the respective technicals are only ever coincident. Nothing more.

I am not saying you can't make money trading based on technicals. But to think that it was the technicals that "caused" the move is wrong.
  • #105
  • Jul 12, 2014 11:21am Jul 12, 2014 11:21am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} one thing you've got to remember, hardly anyone (with size) trades based upon technicals. To think that technicals "cause" a move is very dangerous thinking. They don't. There is no debate to that. Some indicators tend to have a >50% hit rate, but its more confirmation bias in hind-sight unfortunately. But, at the end of the day, a move and the respective technicals are only ever coincident. Nothing more. I am not saying you can't make money trading based on technicals. But to think that it was the technicals that "caused" the move is wrong....
Haha just don't say that in EURUSD thread ............

Still interested why it diverge so much .........
  • #106
  • Jul 12, 2014 11:26am Jul 12, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Haha just don't say that in EURUSD thread ............ Still interested why it diverge so much .........
No-one will ever know, sometimes it just happens. What makes us, is how we react to divergences.

Also, I've never understood why the retail crowd are still so attached to technicals! but I'll be sure not to mention that elsewhere
  • #107
  • Jul 12, 2014 11:30am Jul 12, 2014 11:30am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} No-one will ever know, sometimes it just happens. What makes us, is how we react to divergences. Also, I've never understood why the retail crowd are still so attached to technicals! but I'll be sure not to mention that elsewhere
Most probably is because a serial of good data recently until Friday yesterday ..... But seriously personal opinion is more to do with EUR

Yes don't mention it anywhere other than here lol
  • #108
  • Jul 12, 2014 12:26pm Jul 12, 2014 12:26pm
I just noticed this thread, suscribed
  • #109
  • Jul 12, 2014 1:41pm Jul 12, 2014 1:41pm
sounds interesting! Subscribed
  • #110
  • Jul 12, 2014 3:42pm Jul 12, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} one thing you've got to remember, hardly anyone (with size) trades based upon technicals. To think that technicals "cause" a move is very dangerous thinking. They don't. There is no debate to that. Some indicators tend to have a >50% hit rate, but its more confirmation bias in hind-sight unfortunately. But, at the end of the day, a move and the respective technicals are only ever coincident. Nothing more. I am not saying you can't make money trading based on technicals. But to think that it was the technicals that "caused" the move is wrong....
yes it is as soon as one can except it is good for him. simply all indicators are by product of price so they show what price did in past never show what it going to do in future. though some tool help in decision make process.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #111
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:27pm Jul 12, 2014 4:27pm
my view about market.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7600878
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #112
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:22am Jul 13, 2014 10:22am
Quoting priceaction1
my view about market. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7600878
Hey PA, just want to say I misjudged you it seems. When I saw your first posts I assumed you were just here for flattering because you showed so many account statements.

Now I noticed you are talking some indepth about things / future predictions and that only deserves credit. I only feel right to apologize and wishing you goodluck further on.

PM etc is disabled so posting it here.

regards,

Robert
  • #113
  • Jul 14, 2014 2:45am Jul 14, 2014 2:45am
Bank Of America Spot traders views & convictions

Summary
· G10: GBP conviction decreased, USDCAD conviction strengthened.
· CEEMEA: Conviction for higher USDILS, EURHRK & EURRSD.
· ASIA: A quieter week ahead in terms of NJA data, with focus turning to US inflation.


G10
EURUSD
Conviction – Lower 3/5
The need for a fresh catalyst in either direction is unfortunately becoming increasingly obvious. There is little to suggest that today is the day that catalyst will appear with nothing of note (speeches or data) from the US and only Draghi's communication to parliament in Europe. We continue to hold a medium term short EURUSD conviction. A bounce to 1 3680 would allow us to strengthen this conviction further as would a break of 1 3500.
Resistance: 1.3610, 1.3680
Support: 1.3540, 1.3500

USDJPY
Conviction – Flat
I think the pair will be confined to a tight range, moving nowhere fast for now. After the moves over the past couple of months I don’t think the market has the appetite to get shorter at these levels. Therefore currently we have a neutral conviction.
Resistance: 101.80, 102.25
Support: 101.10, 100.90

GBP
Conviction – Higher 2/5
Conviction waning a little as we are not able to take out 1.7150 in cable and demand for EURGBP persists from the corporate sector. Quite obvious demand at 1.7100 means we are in stalemate for now. Conviction has reduced here a little as we await CPI and jobs data Tuesday and Wednesday which will give opportunities and a clearer signal of the next move for the pound.
Resistance: 1.7160, 1.7200 0.7960, 0.7980
Support: 1.7070, 1.7040 0.7885, 0.7850

AUD / NZD
Conviction – NZDUSD lower 3/5
The market will undoubtedly expect a more cautious tone on the economy couple with some change in rhetoric around the currency in tonight's RBA minutes. While there is a risk of a mild change in the structure of the comments around the currency, the overall message appears unlikely to change. It is higher than they would like it but they it will naturally tend lower in the months to come. If anything I get a sense the short-term market is short aud once again and hence I decided to reduce my AUD conviction on Thursday of last week. 0.9330 remains the key support while 0.9440 and more importantly 0.9500 should signal the upper end of the range. NZD remains firm on the demand for yield. Yellen speech tomorrow appears unlikley to be the trigger for a USD rally and hence a NZD unwind but I am confident when that trigger arrives NZDUSD looks to be one of the most vulnerable pairs given the positioning for yield.
Resistance: 0.9420/30, 0.9480
Support: 0.9330, 0.9280
Resistance: 0.8840/60
Support: 0.8710, 0.8640, 0.8600

USDCAD
Conviction – Higher 2/5
The close above 1.0725 on Friday was very constructive for the pair. We think positioning in the pair is fairly clean and expect to see the market re-entering long USDCAD positions over the next few days as the uptrend resumes. The much weaker than expected June employment data confirms the longer term divergence between the US and Canadian labour market, and as the US data continues to pick up, whilst Canada data remains weak & misses expectations, our higher conviction has increased. The big catalyst for another move this week will be the BoC on Wednesday; although we expect no policy changes we think Poloz will continue to communicate a highly dovish tone.
Resistance: 1.0750, 1.0785
Support: 1.0720, 1.0640/50

SKANDIES
Conviction – Lower NOKSEK 2/5
EURSEK held above 9.2000 the first time, as expected, but I believe rallies to be short lived as a market that has got itself short SEK at extreme levels will look to adjust. I currently favour a conviction for a lower cross at these levels.
Resistance: 8.4500, 8.5500 9.3400, 9.4000
Support: 8.3800, 8.3500 9.2000, 9.1800
  • #114
  • Jul 14, 2014 5:25am Jul 14, 2014 5:25am
Some pieces from this morning.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MS FX daily reco.pdf   96 KB | 287 downloads
File Type: pdf MS FX morning.pdf   105 KB | 278 downloads
File Type: pdf UBS.pdf   409 KB | 317 downloads
  • #115
  • Jul 14, 2014 5:56am Jul 14, 2014 5:56am
Quoting Aws1962
Some pieces from this morning. {image} {image} {image}
Thanks, very interesting. Appreciate the material.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #116
  • Jul 14, 2014 6:10am Jul 14, 2014 6:10am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} its fine, I encourage people to ask away... its kinda my job anyway!
Hi Aws,

what does market maker do before the news..5-10 minutes...can we spot this in a way? Could we spot this with currency meter and last few ticks or something?
Whats going on with major flows at that time?
Hedge strongly? Add or limit all the risk thru the machine?
I know it depends on the prognose of the data and overall position and order flow? Option market?

The machine...how realistic is stop hunting during this period?


Can you sort this thingzz for me
  • #117
  • Jul 14, 2014 6:26am Jul 14, 2014 6:26am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Hi Aws, what does market maker do before the news..5-10 minutes...can we spot this in a way? Could we spot this with currency meter and last few ticks or something? Whats going on with major flows at that time? Hedge strongly? Add or limit all the risk thru the machine? I know it depends on the prognose of the data and overall position and order flow? Option market? The machine...how realistic is stop hunting during this period? Can you sort this thingzz for me
"what does market maker do before the news..5-10 minutes...can we spot this in a way?, Could we spot this with currency meter and last few ticks or something?"

Nope, there are many market makers. They all have different orderbooks / positions. no way to decipher anything from them.

Not sure what you mean by currency meter, but no. No-one knows the numbers before they are out, market makers are reacting to numbers, hence any trades before hand mean nothing

"Whats going on with major flows at that time? Hedge strongly?"

flow dries up a lot... not that much hedging in the few mins before hand. If people hedge, its done beforehand.

"Add or limit all the risk thru the machine? I know it depends on the prognose of the data and overall position and order flow? Option market?"

Not sure what you mean by "thru the machine", maybe algos, but they are market making ones especially during news flow, so...

Options markets are key, but O/N vols have *huge* spreads, so not really done... They might just be gamma trading to sure up the options going into news though.

"how realistic is stop hunting during this period? Can you sort this thingzz for me "

Stop hunting isn't really a thing... so no.

Hope these answers help if not just ask more specific stuff etc
  • #118
  • Jul 14, 2014 6:39am Jul 14, 2014 6:39am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} Not sure what you mean by currency meter, but no. No-one knows the numbers before they are out, market makers are reacting to numbers, hence any trades before hand mean nothing

Not sure what you mean by "thru the machine", maybe algos, but they are market making ones especially during news flow, so... Options markets are key, but O/N vols have *huge* spreads, so not really done... They might just be gamma trading to sure up the options going into news though. "how realistic is stop hunting during this period? Can you sort...
Sometimes I get results from LCS (I call you guyz laaandan cock suckers - cus we are all scared of you when market opens in laandan ) few minutes before the news. Last time I got payrolls 7-5 minutes early... I have BB also, just they were so quick.

Well, result didnt help cus I mainly stay out of the news, I try.

__
market making algos yes...during the news...what one does when they quote 17/19 and later jumps to 77/83? How is that build. How can all MM react simultaniously to 77/83 in next second? Why it stops there and why all orders on 30/60 are eaten with ease? Fascinated by this.
  • #119
  • Jul 14, 2014 6:43am Jul 14, 2014 6:43am
Quoting Aws1962
To think that technicals "cause" a move is very dangerous thinking. They don't. There is no debate to that. Some indicators tend to have a >50% hit rate, but its more confirmation bias in hind-sight unfortunately. But, at the end of the day, a move and the respective technicals are only ever coincident. Nothing more. I am not saying you can't make money trading based on technicals. But to think that it was the technicals that "caused" the move is wrong.
Nicely said. Technical patterns are the result of price movements, fundamentals are the cause. I have seen complex TA applied to randomly generated charts and can see little to no difference between this and TA applied to real price.

The only TA I adhere to is trend following, which I view as fundamental shifts in relative value spread over xxx units of time.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #120
  • Jul 14, 2014 6:51am Jul 14, 2014 6:51am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Sometimes I get results from LCS (I call you guyz laaandan cock suckers - cus we are all scared of you when market opens in laandan ) few minutes before the news. Last time I got payrolls 7-5 minutes early... I have BB also, just they were so quick. Well, result didnt help cus I mainly stay out of the news, I try. __ market making algos yes...during the news...what one does when they quote 17/19 and later jumps to 77/83? How is that build. How can all MM react simultaniously to 77/83 in next second? Why it stops there and why all...
imagine it like a microsecond auction process. remember a market maker takes both sides with a spread. So they will fill both sides of anyone that wants a trade. It will also eat up orders, and the slower price feeds will have to fill orders at mkt (slippage).

Tho the exact details are for the PhD quant guys, but just think microsecond auction process.
0 traders viewing now