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Cross Market Analysis

  • #61
  • Jul 10, 2014 8:03am Jul 10, 2014 8:03am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} yeh I'm glad I didn't put any in my portfolio... stupid tech guys. I don't think this is the "break", but its certainly going to shake some of the weaker longs out.
This # didn't even move U/J up by 1 pip = bad sign. Larger force is selling.

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  • #62
  • Jul 10, 2014 8:08am Jul 10, 2014 8:08am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} This # didn't even move U/J up by 1 pip = bad sign. Larger force is selling. {image}
indeed, always a concern.

but is it enough to crack this area on USDJPY, as said earlier, there are a helluva lot of bids (rumours of gov bids under 101 too...)

Either way, markets starting to liven up a bit.
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  • #63
  • Jul 10, 2014 9:18am Jul 10, 2014 9:18am
I chanced some long GBP/JPY at 173.475 at the bottom of the trend line, but JPY strength is really amazing. Depends on G/U if it will hold.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #64
  • Jul 10, 2014 9:24am Jul 10, 2014 9:24am
Quoting Hickson
I chanced some long GBP/JPY at 173.475 at the bottom of the trend line, but JPY strength is really amazing. Depends on G/U if it will hold.
our desk puts the EURJPY stop at around 137.20... so giving it a bit of breathing room. momentum starting to slow to downside for sure.
  • #65
  • Jul 10, 2014 9:44am Jul 10, 2014 9:44am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} our desk puts the EURJPY stop at around 137.20... so giving it a bit of breathing room. momentum starting to slow to downside for sure.
If 137.50 didn't hold the next support is a wide band below that.

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  • #66
  • Jul 10, 2014 9:48am Jul 10, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} If 137.50 didn't hold the next support is a wide band below that. {image}
just asked our tech desk to send me over a EURJPY chart for their trade. This is what I got...

they say, needs to hold horizontal line on a daily basis - 137.65 or so.

Ideally needs to retake 137.90/138 to confirm basing. (then hold till 138.50's+)

stop under 137.2 which is the downward sloping line...


Personally however, I don't much like the fundamentals behind buying, but I see the attractiveness on a R:R basis.
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  • #67
  • Jul 10, 2014 9:53am Jul 10, 2014 9:53am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} just asked our tech desk to send me over a EURJPY chart for their trade. This is what I got... they say, needs to hold horizontal line on a daily basis - 137.65 or so. Ideally needs to retake 137.90/138 to confirm basing. (then hold till 138.50's+) stop under 137.2 which is the downward sloping line... Personally however, I don't much like the fundamentals behind buying, but I see the attractiveness on a R:R basis. {image}
Draghi was quite dovish yesterday just find it very strange the effect is today. E/U down from 1.365x and now is breaking below 1.3600 taking all EUR/XXX crosses down.
  • #68
  • Jul 10, 2014 9:57am Jul 10, 2014 9:57am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Draghi was quite dovish yesterday just find it very strange the effect is today. E/U down from 1.365x and now is breaking below 1.3600 taking all EUR/XXX crosses down.
nah this has nothing to do with draghi at all.

its all to do with BESPL and its knock on effects
  • #69
  • Jul 10, 2014 10:13am Jul 10, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} nah this has nothing to do with draghi at all. its all to do with BESPL and its knock on effects
You mean BESPL stock? Could you please elaborate in few words?
  • #70
  • Jul 10, 2014 10:23am Jul 10, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You mean BESPL stock? Could you please elaborate in few words?
yeh Banco Espirito Santo

I'll attach a few charts.

3rd one is that off equity vs CDS spread. Huge sell-off has caused ripple effects across all European Bank shares... Credit agricole own around 15% of their shares so there is a bit of contagion etc etc.

This has led to soverign CDS' blowing out a little... (chart is Portugal 5Y CDS)

not only that, but their 10Y bond yield spiked from 3.6% to 4% in v. choppy trading.

mid chart is that of the PSI-20. Portugals main stock index. absolutely hammered!

All in all, a widening of risk premium in Europe today has weighed on the EUR. and that is why we are lower today.

*BUT we must remember that BES and these impacts aren't that important! and will likely die down soon.
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  • #71
  • Jul 10, 2014 10:25am Jul 10, 2014 10:25am
oh and here is their debt chart from our euro corp debt desk... lololol

This is a 5Y bond with a yield of 70%!!!!

Price has fallen some 85% in the space of a few days.
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  • #72
  • Jul 10, 2014 10:43am Jul 10, 2014 10:43am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} yeh Banco Espirito Santo I'll attach a few charts. 3rd one is that off equity vs CDS spread. Huge sell-off has caused ripple effects across all European Bank shares... Credit agricole own around 15% of their shares so there is a bit of contagion etc etc. This has led to soverign CDS' blowing out a little... (chart is Portugal 5Y CDS) not only that, but their 10Y bond yield spiked from 3.6% to 4% in v. choppy trading. mid chart is that of the PSI-20. Portugals main stock index. absolutely hammered! All in all, a widening of risk premium in...
Thanks

I read something about it yesterday but didn't see it coming. Still holding E/U short 1.3648 from yesterday likely to close it soon.
  • #73
  • Jul 10, 2014 12:08pm Jul 10, 2014 12:08pm
USD/JPY is showing good sign atm
  • #74
  • Jul 10, 2014 12:18pm Jul 10, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting Ken A
USD/JPY is showing good sign atm
indeed. Likely heads back into the range trading regime...

EURJPY back to where it was as well... no surprise given the turnaround in USTs and US equity mind.
  • #75
  • Jul 10, 2014 3:12pm Jul 10, 2014 3:12pm
Yep, GBP/JPY is also starting to look good as it bounces off the TL with a long wick.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #76
  • Jul 10, 2014 3:26pm Jul 10, 2014 3:26pm
the 34 of you on my mailing list, check yo inbox.

 

  1. Goldman Sachs Weekly Technicals
  2. BNP P Macro analysis
  3. CitiBank weekly technical roundup
  4. Emerging markets weekly
  5. European economics analysis
  6. JP morgan Fixed income technicals
  7. Barclays FOMC/FED analysis

They just arrived in your inbox, enjoy!

  • #77
  • Jul 10, 2014 3:48pm Jul 10, 2014 3:48pm
Must read - http://globalmacrotrading.wordpress....ap-2014-07-10/
  • #78
  • Jul 10, 2014 6:11pm Jul 10, 2014 6:11pm
Thanks a lot sir ...
I see it all in between ...
  • #79
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:43am Jul 11, 2014 3:43am
Hi AWS, do you have any report about gold and silver perspective after the FED minutes release? thanks
Per aspera ad astra
  • #80
  • Jul 11, 2014 4:35am Jul 11, 2014 4:35am
Looking at the Eurodollar term structure is always interesting, especially after the FOMC minutes where U5 ticked up about 8 points.

we see the current termstructure pointing to a 3M USD LIBOR at 2% at the end of 2016...

this is contrast to the fed's "dots" which approximately see the rate being 50bps higher (assuming the libor-ois spreads hold).

So assuming the Fed stays on the current path, the market is undershooting the fed by 50bps or so. I think that this can transfer into a higher US rates in H2 as the market catches on to the fact that the Fed/Yellen aren't as dovish as previously thought...

Just something to think about!
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