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  • #881
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:21am Jul 8, 2014 4:21am
Quoting nogames2014
{quote} Clive..... Pres78 210 CCI cross wol have pop up at the -100 cross....Man its working wonders for me..Thanks pres78
Glad your enjoying it nogames. Yes the -100 warnings worked like a charm on EURCAD, wait for the retrace on the 14 to enter and bam... pull the trigger.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #882
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:29am Jul 8, 2014 4:29am
The interesting thing about news releases is they can go either way regardless of the actual News Release itself. Just all depends whether its bigger enough to change the Bank Traders view on how they see the GBPs future. If itss a large enough differential then maybe they will change their long term view of the GBP and start selling it off? However if they percieve it as just a blip in a longer term recovery then they will see this move as an opportunity to buy at a discount and get back in with the daily trend.

But heres the thing about trading one minute charts we don't care what they think all we're going to do is follow them once they've mind their minds up.

Obviously I thought they were going to sell off with that nice move down and a tradable pullback, but nope they still haven';t decided yet, probably going to wait to see what the New Yorkers make of it.

Anyway messes my TT up a bit as it just screams sell GBP right now but obviously thats down to the initial news release spike. This is what I was saying earlier you can't just take the TT trades based purely on the TT top 4 you have to apply a bit of old fashion common sense too.

Right now these pairs are trending up a bit on the 1 min so will wait for that to reverse before taking any more entries or for the reversal to confirm then maybe buy??

For the mean time though going to sit on my hands and wait for confirmation one way or the other.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #883
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:36am Jul 8, 2014 4:36am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Glad your enjoying it nogames. Yes the -100 warnings worked like a charm on EURCAD, wait for the retrace on the 14 to enter and bam... pull the trigger.
did you catch it pres78???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #884
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:48am Jul 8, 2014 4:48am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} did you catch it pres78???
Nope I was sleeping

It was right in that key FO-LO time though...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #885
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:52am Jul 8, 2014 4:52am
Quoting clivepackham
Ok news release not too good for GBP so gonna let things settle a bit then have a look at Top Trenders in say 30 mins and see whats come to the top??? Time for a cuppa I think, anyone for tea???? One lump or two MR.V.????
Just milk, I'm sweet enough thank you.
  • #886
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:54am Jul 8, 2014 4:54am
Just wondering if that's it until US session some pairs had big news moves. We'll see.
  • #887
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:20am Jul 8, 2014 5:20am
Heres a little problem for me??

these 4 top trenders are setting up nicely but I can't touch em yet becos the 15min hasn't gone over its associated 100 levels but I'm confident these are good trades going begging.

I like the look of the GBP pairs as GBP is strong the EUR buys are a bit weak and against the daily weakest of EUR.

I'm wandering is my top trenders getting me in at the start of the move better than the 15 min CCI level cross???

Just a thought will pot top trenders here and now and come back to check later, ok pres78???

Just to see what happens to them.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #888
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:25am Jul 8, 2014 5:25am
Now here's something I really like the look of top 4 pairs are the same currency GBP now thats gotta tell you something, surely???

A lot of money is buying GBP at the moment obviously they've read the earlier news release and think its just a blip so they're buying GBP cheaply thanks to the news spike earlier.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #889
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:33am Jul 8, 2014 5:33am
ChF is the weakest currency right now on dailys so for me its lets try to get a nice pullback entry on GBPCHF. Break and retest of 1.5300 looks tasty to me or even a pullback to yesterdays low at 1.5291, who knows but we're soon find out.

Negative is the time of day,mid morning lull, but I reckon they were waiting for news release, had a lazy morning, now they're trading, trying to take advantage of that discount before New York wakes up!

Might have to get ready to duck though if pres78 is still awake!!!
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #890
  • Edited 7:42am Jul 8, 2014 6:33am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Now here's an idea for an early reversal warning signal pres78, how about a zero cross of the 100sma?? My CCI has options to add other MA's so could you incorporate a zero cross alarm on the 100sma?? In my humble opinion its not only a great reversal signal but about the best reversal entry I know. Just a thought, what do you think pres78, might lead to some very quick pips??? {image} {image}
Not sure I understand? 0 cross of the 100sma? What 0? Are you talking about the EMA built into the CCI indi or the 100sma on your chart? The EMA on your CCI indi if set to 100 is way different than the 100sma on your chart as it is 100 periods of a 14 CCI versus 100 periods of 1 minute bars. There are many indi's out there that alert when price crosses or closes on the oppoosite side of a MA but this would be very noisy. When we hit range the amount of small moves above and below the MA would drive you insane I think.

I should also note that I am not a programmer, just a guy that got tired or never finding quite what he wanted so he learned just enough to be very dangerous ...

I think I have a work around on the 0 alert issue but it would involve have a a bit of a cheat. It would work though I think...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #891
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:59am Jul 8, 2014 6:59am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Not sure I understand? 0 cross of the 100sma? What 0? Are you talking about the EMA built into the CCI indi or the 100sma on your chart? The EMA on your CCI indi if set to 100 is way different than the 100sma on your chart as it is 100 periods of a 14 CCI versus 100 periods of 1 minute bars. There are many indi's out there that alert when price crosses or closes on the oppoosite side of a MA but this would be very noisy. When we hit range the amount of small moves above and below the MA would drive you insane I think. I should also note...
Ok no probs, I appreciate that you are giving it a go. Far better than my coding skills thats for sure!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #892
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:42am Jul 8, 2014 7:42am
Just had another BE trade thats about the 5th today, now I know when I do catch one that I will be making some good pips but its very irratating watching lots of 1 min charts trend this way and then that but I'm not on them???

Problem is by the time I arrive they've usually gone quite a way already from thier first pullback. (for 1 min charts I mean) . So it begs the question how can I get alerted to the chart at the right time???

Hmm thats the dilemma???

Its all about catching that first pullback in a trend for me and that happens just after a reversal and usually way before the 15 min CCI signals a buy or sell as described here by pres78.

Of course the real reversals we want are after a strong move one way or the other as the retracements will be quite large on average 70% of the first move or in the case when the first move is a counter daily trend move theres every chance the following reversal will be even bigger maybe a 1.618 extension of the first move?? So well worth catching if we can??

I think it might be as simple as when my TT indy has the same pair top of the 1 min and 5 min tables but opposite colours. Look at the example below , I've been taking snap shots of my top 4 trenders so I took this at 11.16hrs this morning, can you see that GBPNZD was top of both TTs but opposite colours??

Looking at the chart where I've marked 11.16hrs (yellow vertical line) it would of got us there a bit earlier, also bare in mind this 100lwma had to respond to huge news spike down so normally it might get us to the chart on the first price push that produces the first HH so we could sit there and wait for the first HL eg first pullback. Then enter as per normal.

This chart is not the best example as the last LH is start of news spike but under normal trading conditions it could work well. Basically soon as a pair enters the top 8 1 min table and is in the top 8 5 min table its worth a look. As in all probability it has just taken out the last LH in a downtrend or the last HL in an uptrend.

Well I shall be keeping an eye out for that one going forward, wonder if I could get Ted to put an alarm on it or maybe make the symbol flash if its in both tables but opposite colour.

We're getting there....
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #893
  • Edited 8:39am Jul 8, 2014 8:27am | Edited 8:39am
This is what I was talking about earlier how one strong move is followed by another.

Also look how clean the reversals are??? Not too much fighting going on is there??? Know why???

Because the greedy little so and so's who traded it one way are banking their profits as fast as their little greedy fingers will let them, hence after strong move one way equals strong move other way.

Also note the 61.8% pullback of the first move??? BRN too just to make it easy for us.

This is why I keep banging on about identifying reversals early so we can catch these first pullbacks , look at the last turn down too, where did the first pullback start?? Yep good old Fred's favourite entry, the 100SMA break and retest!!

Look how clear those first pullbacks are MR V. first HL and first LH stick out like sore thumbs don't they??

For me its all about watching a strong move, counter trend would be good, then catching that first pullback in the resulting retracement.

just as a final piece here look at the 15 min CCI signals when it first crosses the 100 levels, that is definitely the first filter BUT ONLY AFTER A STRONG MOVE!!!!

Lastly look how cool Pres78's 100lwma colour change is too??? Surely we could use a combination of these signals as filters to identify high RR trades???

Something like this:

1) Strong move one way. (50 pips plus??)

2) 15 min CCI gives us a reverse cross. (+100 for sell, -100 for buy)

3) Pres78 100LWMA must change colour.

4) Last HL (uptrend) must be taken out. Last LH downtrend must be taken out)

5) Price cross' over 100SMA.

6) Next 1 min CCI sell signal must be a LH (confirms new downtrend) must be a HL (confirms new uptrend)

7) Enter on break and retest of 100sma or something similar eg last HL or last LH.

8) Final confirmation could be cross of MA's but usually happens after first HL/LH.

As we've got in very early (wave 3) then add at least once (Wave 5) and trail entries down LH's or behind HL's until stopped out.

All possible as long as we get in on that first retracement that first LH/HL.

Gotta be worth a go surely????

Just edited added 5) Price cross' over 100SMA.
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  • #894
  • Jul 8, 2014 8:41am Jul 8, 2014 8:41am
Quoting clivepackham
This is what I was talking about earlier how one strong move is followed by another. Also look how clean the reversals are??? Not too much fighting going on is there??? Know why??? Because the greedy little so and so's who traded it one way are banking their profits as fast as their little greedy fingers will let them, hence after strong move one way equals strong move other way. Also note the 61.8% pullback of the first move??? BRN too just to make it easy for us. This is why I keep banging on about identifying reversals early so we can catch these...
Yes the CCI 210 can take some time to come into trend. GBPNZD moved up 75 pips before it came into trend. This was a great example of knowing where we are. CCI 210 gets above 100 just as we hit the 9500. Retrace on CCI 14 and the CCI 210 stays in trend but would we ever go long that close to 9500? I certainly would not. So this is a case where we should not just blindly take a system trade based on the CCI's and where a little PA reading comes in handy. A system long from 9500 only down into 9500 after we had moved up and above. In this case we get a rejection, no deep PA retrace and therefore no trade.

So how do we trade a 75 pip move up like that seen on GBPNZD with no entry signals? Do we care? Are there enough times when price crosses the MA's and quickly gets into trend to offset?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #895
  • Jul 8, 2014 9:36am Jul 8, 2014 9:36am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes the CCI 210 can take some time to come into trend. GBPNZD moved up 75 pips before it came into trend. This was a great example of knowing where we are. CCI 210 gets above 100 just as we hit the 9500. Retrace on CCI 14 and the CCI 210 stays in trend but would we ever go long that close to 9500? I certainly would not. So this is a case where we should not just blindly take a system trade based on the CCI's and where a little PA reading comes in handy. A system long from 9500 only down into 9500 after we had moved up and above. In this...
Hear what you're saying but I'm a bit wary that by the time its got over the 100 levels its actually over sold or bought so the move we're trading is ending shortly??? In worst case could produce a loser so i'm working on getting in a little earlier if I can so I can get a bit more out of each trade safely without constantly looking for the end of the move.

In a perfect world, I want to get in closer to the 100SMA cross in fact I would say the best entry ever is the break and retest of the 100SMA. Firstly its a secure place to stick my 10 pip stop and secondly price just flys from there sometimes, thanks to my good old mate Fred.

Yep thats what I'm gunning for from now on, will use my Top Trender to point me at the strongest movers and the first thing I've got to ascertain is whether its a continuation or reversal, then take it from there.

Now then, where's that crash helmet of mine gotta funny feeling I'm gonna need it?????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #896
  • Jul 8, 2014 9:51am Jul 8, 2014 9:51am
Ignore that last GBPJPY trade left my entry EA running and when I turned on auto trading it took a buy entry, closed it as quickly as possible but recorded a loser which is annoying. Its a TT sell pair so no way would I have bought it!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #897
  • Jul 8, 2014 11:01am Jul 8, 2014 11:01am
Just had a loser so time to swallow the medicine and have a look why see if I can learn anything from it??

First of all it was a system trade in that it was on my TT at the time and the 15min CCI had gone over the -100 level, it had come back below -100 but was sloping back up towards -100 so thats ok. However what wasn't to clever is the 15 min CCI going so over sold, it went up over -350 so not a good sign, I think in future I will leave trades that go overbought or sold over the 300 level, they just have to come back with a bang don't they??

On the TT indy although it was there so was a couple of GBP pairs as buys so really thats a conflicting signal and should go with the majority which was buy GBP not sell it.

CCI entry I was more than happy with a nice +100 signal momentum falling as I placed my pending order and order hit nicely, nice pullback to a key level the 100SMA so thats ok, maybe should of closed it out once it broke 100sma for a 6 pip loss rather than the full 10 as after all it had broken my key level. Guess I was holding on as the next 25 level was between my stop and price but that failed too.

Another thing that should of rung alarm bells is the SW indy was showing GBP and CAD as top strongest so that was madness to trade GBPCAD.

Now for the 2 biggest reasons I believed it failed and something I will definately take from this loser.

1) It had done its ADR for the day it was on 90 when I entered and the ATR was 84.8 it had already done its days work and a bit more, so no way should I entertain this trade.

2) Time of day, it was 16.11 when I hit this trade and thats just a bit too late for my liking. should really only enter new trades between 0700 to 1030 and for New York 1200 to 1600hrs. Might even change these times to just look just after the opens have started as the idea of this strategy is to follow the money as it comes to the market so ought to give them a chance to get it on the table I guess.

Thats it really shame to finish with a loss but thats the way it goes but learnt from it so won't make the same mistakes again.

If you've got any thoughts pres78 or Mr V. fire away, please.

Cheers lets do it all again tomoz.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #898
  • Jul 8, 2014 11:23am Jul 8, 2014 11:23am
Quoting clivepackham
If you've got any thoughts pres78 or Mr V. fire away, please. Cheers lets do it all again tomoz. {image}
Well since you asked so nicely ...

I do not like to enter a trade when the CCI 210 is over / under 200. Entries when the CCI is right around the 100 level and under / over the 200 levels are the best. That said I will enter a trade after the CCI hits over / under 200 as long as we have come back, smoothed out and re-entered trend. The chart you posted this did not occur... we never came back into trend on the CCI 210 (stayed above -100) so we are in the dead zone.

Ranging and trend changes occur within that zone so when the trend CCI is in there we must wait.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #899
  • Jul 8, 2014 12:04pm Jul 8, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Well since you asked so nicely ... I do not like to enter a trade when the CCI 210 is over / under 200. Entries when the CCI is right around the 100 level and under / over the 200 levels are the best. That said I will enter a trade after the CCI hits over / under 200 as long as we have come back, smoothed out and re-entered trend. The chart you posted this did not occur... we never came back into...
Thanks Pres78
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #900
  • Edited 6:11pm Jul 8, 2014 5:19pm | Edited 6:11pm
I said I would post my settings for my Top trender Indy and give some guidance on how I use it myself. Here are the settings:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: My Top Trender Indy settings for 1 min 5 min.PNG Size: 32 KB


As you can see I use the 100LWMA as my reference MA with a look back period to match the timeframe whoose momentum you are trading. So for the 1 min I look back 15 periods as trading in direction of 15 min momentum, but for the 5 min I use lookback of 12 as theres 12 5 min periods in a hrly candle. etc etc. I set the ATR for false as I want the biggest mover at the top to try and compensate for the cost of spread. However for 1 hour and above I would set it to "true" as spread is not such an issue on the higher timeframes.

All I would say when it comes to using the Top Trenders is to only trade something from the top 8 on the 1 min chart. I only look at the top 4. You will find they are constantly changing even dropping out of top 4 on a deep pullback so sometimes I look at the 5 min just to keep an eye on whats moving for longer time.

Once you have your top 4 goto their charts and look to see if any are worth trading or not. This is what I look for as follows:

 

  1. Is it a continuation trade or a possible reversal??
  2. If a continuation trade check how over bought/sold the 15 min CCI is? Be careful if over the 200 level, could be reversing??
  3. If a continuation then check how far its already gone against its ATR if close to it then leave it.
  4. If you are happy its a continuation trade then check that the last push has easily cleared the previous push eg a clear HH or LL and wait for a clean pullback to one of our key levels.
  5. For continuations I also like to be as close to 100SMA on entry as possible and get my 10 pip stop behind it if I can.
  6. On continuations I have found it best to get stop above last LH on down trends or below HL on an uptrend whenever possible.
  7. If a continuation trade then where is it on a simple 5 wave Elliot wave move?? We want wave 3 or 5 if possible, but also if consolidating and ABC in place then look to continue trend off of C. Sometimes I have a quick look at 5 min chart to see where Elliot wave is on the 5 min. Again try to enter on wave 3 if possible. Also depending on where you are on elliot wave patterns then trade the move as such eg enter as early as possible wave 3 or 5 and exit on wave 5 as it falters.
  8. Look to see if its reversing checking out the following points.

  1. Has there been a strong move one way. Say 50 pips plus??
  2. Has the 15 min CCI given us a reverse cross. (+100 for sell, -100 for buy)
  3. Has price crossed the 100SMA?
  4. Has the 100LWMA changed colour?
  5. Has the last HL (uptrend) been taken out. Or the last LH in a downtrend been taken out?
  6. Have the MAs crossed or are they about to?
  7. Next 1 min CCI sell signal must be a LH (confirms new downtrend) or must be a HL (confirms new uptrend)
  8. Enter on break and retest of 100sma if possible or something similar eg last HL or last LH.

I have found that it is critical to make an initial analysis to know where you are in the move and its best if you are entering on wave 3 or 5 at worst.


I have also found that if the 15 min CCI is over sold that reversals are more common than continuations and as its best to play the highest probability trades just be very aware of any reversal signal and don't enter on a continuation trade unless 15 min is over the 100 level and rising with it. If 15 min is sloping opposite to your intended trade direction (diverging) then tread carefully until you know for sure whats happening.

Bottom line??? Make sure you are 100% sure you know which direction price is going before entering, if any doubts leave it out!! Another trade will be along shortly.

Hope that helps, will be posting charts as I go tomoz and will try to point out these things as I go but difficult to post and trade.

Catch you tomoz.

Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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