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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #9,421
  • Jul 7, 2014 12:02pm Jul 7, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting moretti12
MR pip i have a question for you.. I have just read Scott Carney's "Harmonic trading v1" which i by the way would suggest everyone to read..! I assume that most of your basic knowlegde is taken from his directions and way of trading. This makes me wonder why you measure the D leg in the patterns, in a diffrent way than he does? Carney Finds his D by using a projection/extension of BC where you uses the projection of AB. Is there any particular reason for that and can you explain why?
I find it easier to use the AB because it gives me a cleaner expectation form a ratio standpoint where my exhaustion ares should be. I sometimes use the BC for extra confluence when structure is not as strong in the area and would like to pin point a better PRZ. I always like to work off of main swings and they are usually the XA or AB swings. This gives me better trades to work with.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #9,422
  • Jul 7, 2014 12:08pm Jul 7, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting GiovanniV
when we find ourselves in this situation where AB = CD is not completed for a few pips what do we do? {image}
Your rules set must be clear on this. Do not go chasing after trades! Review your chart and look left, review the order flow and see if you missed something. If it did not complete then do not worry about it they don't all have to complete or work out.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #9,423
  • Edited 3:03pm Jul 7, 2014 12:13pm | Edited 3:03pm
Good morning Traders,

I'm looking at a AB=CD on the GBPUSD. It completes with 161.8 ext of AB and 61.8 of the main swing. Even though in the short term price has made a Higher High and 2x Higher Lows, the bullish swings have been weaken while the last bearish swing increased in momentum and made a deeper depth (% wise).

Expectation: I'm expecting price to stall out or show some signs of rejection at the 1.71375 area and push down. Because this completion will have made a slightly HH in the Long term order flow, I'm only expecting a bearish swing to 1.712 maybe even a test of the lows (NSL)..... Depending on the strength down.

Lets see if we can get some bearish evidence

Update: enguaged at 1.71369 @ 10:30. Its critical that price close below 1.71335. (LH & Retest). Just passed as I was writing this... Niceeee! Next barrier 1.7126
Update 2: Got knocked out on the spike. +7 pips. Better then nothing I guess.

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/9fnwn.png
  • #9,424
  • Jul 7, 2014 2:38pm Jul 7, 2014 2:38pm
EA daily
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  • #9,425
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:09pm Jul 7, 2014 3:09pm
AUDUSD Garley + ABCD

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  • #9,426
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:23pm Jul 7, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting LuisPrinc
{quote} Ok, well. Now I am really interested to know from you, how you were trading this week and your sessions went. Could you bring us the charts maybe ? Anyway as I understood, you trade mostly on lower timeframes, and that is because there are more opportunities so therefore more profit potential in a given time. Also for money management, when you take the end of a week, do you increase your position size ? Because you if I am seeing it right, you are profitable every day right ? Thanks. Mr Pip

Ok, well. Now I am really interested to know from you, how you were trading this week and your sessions went. Could you bring us the charts maybe ?
Anyway as I understood, you trade mostly on lower timeframes, and that is because there are more opportunities so therefore more profit potential in a given time.
Also for money management, when you take the end of a week, do you increase your position size ? Because you if I am seeing it right, you are profitable every day right ? And from what I know that is great performance in the industry well above average.
I would really love to join and trade in your team some day. Also is there a possibility to join your education ?

Thanks. Mr Pip
  • #9,427
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:25pm Jul 7, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Your rules set must be clear on this. Do not go chasing after trades! Review your chart and look left, review the order flow and see if you missed something. If it did not complete then do not worry about it they don't all have to complete or work out.
  • #9,428
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:28pm Jul 7, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Mack2013
Good morning Traders, I'm looking at a AB=CD on the GBPUSD. It completes with 161.8 ext of AB and 61.8 of the main swing. Even though in the short term price has made a Higher High and 2x Higher Lows, the bullish swings have been weaken while the last bearish swing increased in momentum and made a deeper depth (% wise). Expectation: I'm expecting price to stall out or show some signs of rejection at the 1.71375 area and push down. Because this completion will have made a slightly HH in the Long term order flow, I'm only expecting a bearish swing...
how did it go?
  • #9,429
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:28pm Jul 7, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Mack2013
Good morning Traders, I'm looking at a AB=CD on the GBPUSD. It completes with 161.8 ext of AB and 61.8 of the main swing. Even though in the short term price has made a Higher High and 2x Higher Lows, the bullish swings have been weaken while the last bearish swing increased in momentum and made a deeper depth (% wise). Expectation: I'm expecting price to stall out or show some signs of rejection at the 1.71375 area and push down. Because this completion will have made a slightly HH in the Long term order flow, I'm only expecting a bearish swing...

This one was right on spot. thanks. ABCD from the main swing should kick in now?... or is it something else...
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  • #9,430
  • Jul 7, 2014 3:32pm Jul 7, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Keep at it but focus on order flow not the patterns. Use the ratios to find confluence. Train your eyes to identify decision making areas that's where your high probability trades are going to occur. Do not just sit around waiting for patterns. Empower your self to identify and confirm your opportunities through proper effective chart reading. There is no rush take the time to connect the dots and you will cross that bridge.
okay, Mr. Pip, getting right on it. Thanks.
I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #9,431
  • Jul 7, 2014 6:25pm Jul 7, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting GiovanniV
{quote} how did it go?
+7 pips. After price over extended to touched 1.7126 , the Bulls came out and pushed price back into an area of indecision. That reaction told me that there were buyers at that level so I lowered my stops just in case. 5 mins later I was stopped out.

Review: Looking back at it. I think I was to greedy. The swing down I was in was obviously weak. I should of taken profits at 1.7126. I was expecting more paticipation from the Bears. But hey, any profit is good. I'll take what I can scrap up and run.

Lesson: Always pay attention to what price is telling you. Don't let your expectations cloud your judgement. I'm still working on improving this part of my trading.

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/u5wwn.png
  • #9,432
  • Edited 8:05pm Jul 7, 2014 7:18pm | Edited 8:05pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Sometimes price just doesn't give you what you want. Your analysis was good and that will build your confidence level. The short term order flow helps confirm the larger expectation. Was there significant short term order flow breakdown? Review your chart and ask yourself was price giving me the answers I was looking for?
Thanks Mr pip. I'm feel like I'm getting better. Thanks to you and others. But I still have a long ways to go.

uhmmmm. I looked at it several times and on second look. the micro 1 to 1 in the retest of completion did complete. I used the 161.8 ext of AB when I should of used the zone between 138.6 & 161.8 because there wasn't a lot of confluence (on the Entry analysis anyway) I also missed a minor struct area just above on my original analysis which was respected.

Was there significant short term order flow breakdown?

There was some breakdown but not significant. Price broke through the structure I highlighted but was sharply reject then the bears decelerated. Even tho the depth of the pullback was shallow compared to the others, the retest showed decreasing momentum from the Bulls as well.

Review your chart and ask yourself was price giving me the answers I was looking for?

Even tho I was inticipating price action correctly, I didn't get the clear signal I wanted. The bullish candle marked with a purple arrow was alot bigger then I was hoping for and because of the shallow pullback, I was looking for more decleration in price on the retest. At the time I was thinking that this candle was showing signs of strength but in hindsight that didn't seem to be the case.

The only time I felt confident that the trade would be successful was on the second bar down. But by then R:R wasn't sufficient.

Question: I try not to drop down TF but maybe in this case it was appropriate. What do you think Mr.Pip? Did I miss something?


http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/M5wwn.png
  • #9,433
  • Jul 7, 2014 8:29pm Jul 7, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting LuisPrinc
{quote} Ok, well. Now I am really interested to know from you, how you were trading this week and your sessions went. Could you bring us the charts maybe ? Anyway as I understood, you trade mostly on lower timeframes, and that is because there are more opportunities so therefore more profit potential in a given time. Also for money management, when you take the end of a week, do you increase your position size ? Because you if I am seeing it right, you are profitable every day right ? And from what I know that is great performance in the industry...
Bringing you my chart does little to nothing to benefit you. You see I already know this. I trade a completely different chart then you do. It is you who needs to post your trades and management of the trade for the more experienced to weigh in and help you out. As for money manage mange one can't trade without a money management system the two must coexist (trading system & money management). I've already posted my money management system. It is the Smooth Ratio formula works very well and is aggressive on both ends.

I am not profitable every day any trader that tell you that is either full of crap or doesn't trade. Losses are a very real and part of the business. But a good trader manages his losses and controls his risk accordingly. This is also an important balance and every profitable trader has full control over this area.

If you participate here then you are a part of my education and a member of a team that will eventually take control of a skill set like no other and see the reality of what the market is and step out of the shadows of all those underpowered traders. I'm here to show you all and have been doing so but showing you my chart does not help you it's apples and oranges because of tick and minutes but the process is the same.

If it's proof you seek well I think I have more then proven that over the time we have had together. I have provided many calls and live trade management throughout this thread and even last week I provided 4 live calls all ending in profitable trades.

Let's focus on you and your growth and not on my and my chart.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #9,434
  • Jul 7, 2014 8:35pm Jul 7, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Thanks Mr pip. I'm feel like I'm getting better. Thanks to you and others. But I still have a long ways to go. uhmmmm. I looked at it several times and on second look. the micro 1 to 1 in the retest of completion did complete. I used the 161.8 ext of AB when I should of used the zone between 138.6 & 161.8 because there wasn't a lot of confluence (on the Entry analysis anyway) I also missed a minor struct area just above on my original analysis which was respected. Was there significant short term order flow breakdown? There was some breakdown...
Well done! I think you are processing your chart very well! Sometimes we don't have all of the information we are looking for then the opportunity arises. This is fine what you must ask yourself is if the conditions that would trigger an entry are present. If they are pull the trigger and manage your trade and if they are not sit on your hands.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #9,435
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:34am Jul 8, 2014 1:34am
Greetings All.

Order flow and harmonic analysis from yesterday:
Any advice on what i might be missing that I need to be mindful of on my next trade would be appreciated!
All the best everyone

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  • #9,436
  • Jul 8, 2014 2:23am Jul 8, 2014 2:23am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote}Lesson: Always pay attention to what price is telling you. Don't let your expectations cloud your judgement. I'm still working on improving this part of my trading. {image}
  • #9,437
  • Jul 8, 2014 3:48am Jul 8, 2014 3:48am
ABCD harmonic movement, second one from the top, but the D point to be, is past the structure on the left. 618 of the main swing from the downside is around 1.70720.

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  • #9,438
  • Jul 8, 2014 3:56am Jul 8, 2014 3:56am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} well as this thread is dedicated to harmonics and advanced patterns, here is a bullish gartely formed recently, I'm quoting my post from GBP/USD thread. Actually PA looks pretty bearish, for me I will wait for 38.2 retracement to enter short {image}
okay so PA passed by 38.2 and touched 61.8 before retracing back! Love it when harmonics works well
  • #9,439
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:30am Jul 8, 2014 5:30am
Hi All
looking to get long on the CAD JPY. with an aggressive C
i like that the price action has retraced down to a previous supply / demand level at 95.20
Before i enter i want PA to confirm its with order flow and if it takes out 78.6 no trade
All feed back welcome
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  • #9,440
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:50am Jul 8, 2014 6:50am
Next move of GBPUSD, my expectation. (I believe positive momentum could kick in to distort the view anytime during these intermitant NSLs)


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