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NZD/USD

  • #6,301
  • Jul 4, 2014 11:04pm Jul 4, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I erroneously entered too many trades on NU and 90% are in red.Love to get out of them at this point without much damage. My charts are pointing further weakness of kiwi.Its very possible RBNZ may not raise interest rate on July 24th. They said inflation report will influence that decision so they have not made up their minds yet. Data-Driven “People were getting a little ahead of themselves,” McDermott said. “There’s a lot of news to come” before the July 24 rate decision, including first-quarter growth and second-quarter inflation numbers,...
IMHO ... kiwi is overvalued and it will damage their trade balance, i believe dairy business man don't like this condition .

What I see why kiwi keep flying like this ... hmmm #carry-trade ? does kiwi have perfect #wings ?

We had really good NFP last week , Will make the FED hike rate earlier ( not in q1 2015) ?
not euphoria follower
  • #6,302
  • Jul 4, 2014 11:08pm Jul 4, 2014 11:08pm
We knew there is inside bar in common.

What i see there is "inside formation" so i am looking for pattern in formation. we see that friday was locked by high low of thursday or say locked by NFP candle ... ?

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} What up bro? Maybe one more time? {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #6,303
  • Jul 5, 2014 12:32am Jul 5, 2014 12:32am
i ams still long on NZD cos' they may raise interest rate again this month... fyi, many companies are using this opportunity of strong NZD to launch IPO.
  • #6,304
  • Jul 5, 2014 1:48am Jul 5, 2014 1:48am
Pretty sure we are heading to 87 weekly support.

However, 24th July is quite some time away, so there is plenty of time to price expected rate hike in further, (whether it actually happens or not), esp. since the FED in no uncertain terms, is locking itself into ultra low rates for quite sometime to come.

Currency Pairs by there very nature, are "relative",

Personally, if (I) was short, I would get out at the weekly breakout retest around 87.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdweekly.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusddaily.png Size: 23 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #6,305
  • Jul 5, 2014 1:59am Jul 5, 2014 1:59am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Pretty sure we are heading to 87 weekly support. However, 24th July is quite some time away, so there is plenty of time to price expected rate hike in further, (whether it actually happens or not), esp. since the FED in no uncertain terms, is locking itself into ultra low rates for quite sometime to come. Currency Pairs by there very nature, are "relative", Personally, if (I) was short, I would get out at the weekly breakout retest around 87. {image} {image}
It's also quit a strong spring board weekly bar starting the 1st of June.

Daily and 4hr show aggressive buying from then.

June Monthly close above 87 resistance also important IMO.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #6,306
  • Jul 5, 2014 2:53am Jul 5, 2014 2:53am
The way both GBP and NZD brushed off the NFP news on Thursday was quite impressive.

Suggests both have more to give on the up side.
  • #6,307
  • Edited 3:31am Jul 5, 2014 3:12am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting Davit
I am going to post my analyses purely technical level. Price broke my Wave (34EMA HLC) H4 RSI and WP% below 50 heading lower {image}

You must be a about 500 pips down on that trade and the swaps must be piling up.

I think you mentioned once you have a short bias. I do also the vast majority of my trades are shorts. Over the last couple of weeks for example instead of being long EURUSD I was short USDCHF.

But I have found that I make more on the long side as I'm only taking the best setups.
  • #6,308
  • Jul 5, 2014 3:44am Jul 5, 2014 3:44am
Bulls are done.. Bears Month..
  • #6,309
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:01am Jul 5, 2014 5:01am
89 first.

Should happen this month.

Then down.
  • #6,310
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:07am Jul 5, 2014 5:07am
Quoting pbtec
89 first. Should happen this month. Then down.

no more 88 or 89 its going to 84
  • #6,311
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:20am Jul 5, 2014 5:20am
Quoting pbtec
89 first. Should happen this month. Then down.
Watch PA for any clues off support.

Will tell the story one way or another
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #6,312
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:41am Jul 5, 2014 5:41am
Quoting pbtec
89 first. Should happen this month. Then down.
could go anywhere....... any chart ?
not euphoria follower
  • #6,313
  • Jul 5, 2014 11:57am Jul 5, 2014 11:57am
Quoting pbtec
89 first. Should happen this month. Then down.
Will not rule out if they raise interest rate.So far they did what they said.Only difference now with soft commodity prices it might gave them a pause a delay.
One thing for sure Kiwi can not be sustained at these elevated levels specially if Aussie dollar plunges.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,314
  • Jul 5, 2014 1:24pm Jul 5, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Will not rule out if they raise interest rate.So far they did what they said.Only difference now with soft commodity prices it might gave them a pause a delay. One thing for sure Kiwi can not be sustained at these elevated levels specially if Aussie dollar plunges. regards

  • #6,315
  • Jul 5, 2014 1:41pm Jul 5, 2014 1:41pm
NU failed to break above -20 WR% and its below my Wave
There is clear weakness in Bulls now.
Notice yellow boxes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.h4.png Size: 54 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #6,316
  • Edited 2:53pm Jul 5, 2014 2:42pm | Edited 2:53pm
local media getting more involved in commodity/currency divergence case
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/ne...ectid=11288324

doesn't mean we can't get a bit higher short term.. but imo there's a very low degree of probability we will break above .8850 and stay there for an extended period of time.

if i was short from lower levels.. i'd close some of them and reload the freed margin from 88xx then enjoy the ride down.

Quoting Ill-b-back
Personally, if (I) was short, I would get out at the weekly breakout retest around 87.
agree 100%.. i saw 8680ish before but with closer look, 8702-8708 could bring a nasty bounce indeed
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #6,317
  • Jul 5, 2014 3:14pm Jul 5, 2014 3:14pm
Forex CFTC Commitments of Traders – week ending July 1

EUR net short 60.8K vs short 57.5K prior
JPY net short 58.7K vs short 71.2K prior
GBP net long 56.4K vs long 49.8K prior
AUD net long 38.9K vs long 33.5 prior
CAD net long 2.7K vs short 5.3 prior
CHF net short 7.3K vs short 5.4K prior
NZD net long 9.0K vs long 6.2K prior
  • #6,318
  • Jul 5, 2014 4:40pm Jul 5, 2014 4:40pm
Quoting MaryJane
local media getting more involved in commodity/currency divergence case http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/ne...ectid=11288324 doesn't mean we can't get a bit higher short term.. but imo there's a very low degree of probability we will break above .8850 and stay there for an extended period of time. if i was short from lower levels.. i'd close some of them and reload the freed margin from 88xx then enjoy the ride down. {quote} agree 100%.. i saw 8680ish before but with closer look, 8702-8708 could bring a nasty bounce...
And after a closer look, I actually like your 8680ish
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusddaily.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdweekly.png Size: 27 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #6,319
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:28pm Jul 5, 2014 5:28pm
Quoting MaryJane
doesn't mean we can't get a bit higher short term.. but imo there's a very low degree of probability we will break above .8850 and stay there for an extended period of time. if i was short from lower levels.. i'd close some of them and reload the freed margin from 88xx then enjoy the ride down. {quote} agree 100%.. i saw 8680ish before but with closer look, 8702-8708 could bring a nasty bounce indeed
I did exactly that last week after bleeding swaps from 6/18. Closed a couple lower, reloaded higher. I concur 100% with the potential retrace targets (within a pip or two) After that and depending on PA, longs would look rather tasty.

My continued appreciation for the links MaryJane.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdmdaily.png Size: 66 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #6,320
  • Jul 6, 2014 11:38am Jul 6, 2014 11:38am
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/ne...ectid=11288324
nice discussion on NZ dairy crises now
I posted my view hopefully gets posted.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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