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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,481
  • Jul 4, 2014 5:55pm Jul 4, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Sounds like you took a deep thought. Not saying "I always told you", but it was quite obvious that you took some counter trend trades that seemed like jumping in front of a train. I am sure this will be a huge improvement, go for it.
Not saying it? Sounds like you just did man.

Counter trading is risky for sure but very often quite rewarding too. Nothing "obvious" about a rate hike a day or two after setting up for a swing trade that NU which, without the hike, I believe would have worked out quite well. Unless you're "in the know". Are you? I took the same setup myself. Only mistake made there IMHO was not waiting for the announcement. And on GU? I've been shorting and longing that pair since April throughout this whole bull trend. I'll continue to as well.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,482
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:07pm Jul 4, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Not saying it? Sounds like you just did man. Counter trading is risky for sure but very often quite rewarding too. Nothing "obvious" about a rate hike a day or two after setting up for a swing trade that NU which, without the hike, I believe would have worked out quite well. Unless you're "in the know". Are you? I took the same setup myself. Only mistake made there IMHO was not waiting for the announcement. And on GU? I've been shorting and longing that pair since April throughout this whole bull trend. I'll continue to as well....
No, I think I did not say I am "in the know". It seems like you are way too sensitive with any post that shows traces of criticism towards single points of trading approaches. I just said that I am convinced that this is an improvement based on Davit's biggest losers this year and will minimalize the risk. Never said it cannot be rewarding or make sense to take counter trend trades here and there. Without stating what one thinks about trading, it is impossible to improve. I make a lot of mistakes in my trading and I hope every single one will be pointed out in a way I can understand. Don't know for sure, but I cannot imagine Davit is offended by this observation. If so, I am sorry, he knows that I am in general respecting him and his system.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,483
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:08pm Jul 4, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hi Davit, for what it's worth, it seems to me you had main losses on trending pairs like GU, NU, (AU??) not sure on that last one. You had a lot of success on other pairs, you just had a bad patch this month as the trend took hold. I think your method has a lot of merit on other pairs especially non US pairs. Cheers.
Hi friend
True I had success with others pairs and also same pairs as well NU GU but I think I finally realized being 1 dimensional (Always counter trading) is not healthy.
I think my latest insights are going to be very profitable.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,484
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:12pm Jul 4, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Sounds like you took a deep thought. Not saying "I always told you", but it was quite obvious that you took some counter trend trades that seemed like jumping in front of a train. I am sure this will be a huge improvement, go for it.
Hickson
You are correct.I can't hide the elephant.My current DD is embarrassing
Combining my BB system with wave is going to be dynamic.I already have lots of experience being counter trader but now need to develop as trend trader as well.I noted markets mostly like to follow trends at least MM who have the $$ to push price.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,485
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:16pm Jul 4, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Not saying it? Sounds like you just did man. Counter trading is risky for sure but very often quite rewarding too. Nothing "obvious" about a rate hike a day or two after setting up for a swing trade that NU which, without the hike, I believe would have worked out quite well. Unless you're "in the know". Are you? I took the same setup myself. Only mistake made there IMHO was not waiting for the announcement. And on GU? I've been shorting and longing that pair since April throughout this whole bull trend. I'll continue to as well....
Chris I think Hickson means well.His observations were correct and I was brooding it myself lately a lot.
Among friends I am not offended at all.Criticism is healthy.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,486
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:24pm Jul 4, 2014 6:24pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} That's quite a call
I think I can do this Hickson
I got my filters,my warning sign posts,my course of action clear.
Rest is following the signals
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,487
  • Jul 4, 2014 6:30pm Jul 4, 2014 6:30pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Chris I think Hickson means well.His observations were correct and I was brooding it myself lately a lot. Among friends I am not offended at all.Criticism is healthy. Regards
Constructive criticism is buddy and I welcome it all the time. (Not saying "I always told you") doesn't fit that bill for me. Just a cheap chest pounding shot to me. But that's just my opinion and I should keep them to myself. I will in the future brother. Apologies to the thread.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,488
  • Jul 4, 2014 7:24pm Jul 4, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Constructive criticism is buddy and I welcome it all the time. (Not saying "I always told you") doesn't fit that bill for me. Just a cheap chest pounding shot to me. But that's just my opinion and I should keep them to myself. I will in the future brother. Apologies to the thread.
You do not know me for sure.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,489
  • Edited 9:02pm Jul 4, 2014 8:40pm | Edited 9:02pm
David,
i was reading your thread sometimes, I am just humble scalper and do not trade on Day chart. One thing i would like to say, your method was fine, but it was designed for not trending market and it is more for flat Bollinger Band. If you trade Bollinger Band on Day chart, have to watch what Weekly BB is doing. If it is expanding, it is dangerous to take countertrend trades. Possibly you got into weekly trends, that why your system did not work. System is fine, you only need more flat market.

I will show example of two 20 period BB's plotted on one chart. 1 day and 4 Hour (Same rule would be for 1 day and Weekly) Countertrend will work if Higher time frame BB is flat or pointing down. If it is expanding and lower timeframe BB brakes though - then trending usually will begin. And this can be strong trend. It is not easy to spot on day chart, it works on all time frames.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic 1.png Size: 75 KB


example with 1 day and Weekly BB of G/U. The problem here that weekly was trending up and 1day BB kept poking through Weekly. As you see 1 Day BB was moving in upper part of Weekly BB. Weekly was expanding up. I am learning myself from this chart now, so i will share. I pointed for myself, that is important to spot when Weekly BB is trending and not to make mistakes going wrong direction on smaller time frames. Next step here to see what Monthly BB is doing...
Will not go deeper into this.
G/U day chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic 2.png Size: 56 KB


Have good weekend !
  • #1,490
  • Jul 4, 2014 9:01pm Jul 4, 2014 9:01pm
Quoting RabbitWolf
David, i was reading your thread sometimes, I am just humble scalper and do not trade on Day chart. One thing i would like to say, your method was fine, but it was designed for not trending market and it is more for flat Bollinger Band. If you trade Bollinger Band on Day chart, have to watch what Weekly BB is doing. If it is expanding, it is dangerous to take countertrend trades. Possibly you got into weekly trends, that why your system did not work. System is fine, you only need more flat market. I will show example of two 20 period BB's plotted...
RabbitW
I agree about your comments on BB and in fact I was aware about its limitations and stated many times here on my thread that BB is ideally suited on range pairs.Obviously there is that chance what you think range breaks out and becomes a trending pair.
My latest attempts is to correctly identify trading cycles and trade accordingly.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,491
  • Jul 4, 2014 11:52pm Jul 4, 2014 11:52pm
Some Analyses on daily chart on AU
AU is at support 9350 level
What the system beautifully is showing price did not break lower WAVE however WP% shooting down -80 and RSI below 50 suggesting Bear action may not be over.
This is great ?Without this system set up (I would of not known that going long here is not most opportune time....)
Blue candle suggesting neutral

Larry Williams creator of WR% suggest going long when line is pointing up from below.He was a commodity trader so he waited 5 days then traded the signal.
Forex 5 days is huge but waiting for conformation for signal is better then taking a losing trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.daily.png Size: 48 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,492
  • Jul 5, 2014 4:17am Jul 5, 2014 4:17am
Quoting albchr
Oh boy, I smell another chart overlay on my humble SR/SD charts for comparison coming. Always learning, perfecting and growing. Gotta love it.

Love this....
  • #1,493
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:24am Jul 5, 2014 5:24am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Chris I think Hickson means well.His observations were correct and I was brooding it myself lately a lot. Among friends I am not offended at all.Criticism is healthy. Regards
Good that you understood my intention. I am convinced that one will not get far by pampering each other all the time. For example, when I did something really stupid in a poker session, a friend of mine who is a semi-professional just bursted out: "WTF?!?!! Are you totally crazy?!?! That was so fuckin' stupid, can't believe how stupid it was! I do not want to insult you, but WTF?! were you just thinking?!!" Was not nice to hear of course, but I know it was nothing personal and I benefitted more from it than in the other case where he just would not have cared.

Grind on Davit, I am sure your results will finally be impressive.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,494
  • Jul 5, 2014 5:33am Jul 5, 2014 5:33am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} You do not know me for sure.
Perhaps. But I know enough now. At least for me.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,495
  • Jul 5, 2014 7:38am Jul 5, 2014 7:38am
Quoting Feefee
{quote} Love this....
... :nerd: ...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,496
  • Jul 5, 2014 8:17am Jul 5, 2014 8:17am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Perhaps. But I know enough now. At least for me.
http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/lol-049.gif
  • #1,497
  • Jul 5, 2014 8:37am Jul 5, 2014 8:37am
Quoting PoundTrader
{quote}{image}
That's ok PT, laugh at me and shame me. You and I have known each other for some time now in this house. Perhaps you know something I don't. Perhaps he's actually someone I respect under another nick? In this place, that happens and it can be hard to tell at times.

But until I see something more constructive in content, i.e. some charts, analysis, trades before and after, and little less condescending, i.e. the plenty of comments I've seen towards others, I have to go with what I see....or....don't see.

Perhaps I'm immature in my thinking this house is supposed to be one of sharing views and information (whether they agree with ours or not), in a positive and sociable way so we all gain from the debate(s). But then, how mature is "I told you so"??

Anyway, unless and until someone I respect, or he himself shows me why I wrong (even via PM), I'll just have to stick with my feelings on this one and I won't engage in any more public posts about it. As always, respect PT
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,498
  • Jul 5, 2014 12:05pm Jul 5, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} That's ok PT, laugh at me and shame me. You and I have known each other for some time now in this house. Perhaps you know something I don't. Perhaps he's actually someone I respect under another nick? In this place, that happens and it can be hard to tell at times. But until I see something more constructive in content, i.e. some charts, analysis, trades before and after, and little less condescending, i.e. the plenty of comments I've seen towards others, I have to go with what I see....or....don't see. Perhaps I'm immature in...
bro i wasn't laughing at you don't take it the wrong way.
  • #1,499
  • Jul 5, 2014 12:28pm Jul 5, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting Davit
Some Analyses on daily chart on AU AU is at support 9350 level What the system beautifully is showing price did not break lower WAVE however WP% shooting down -80 and RSI below 50 suggesting Bear action may not be over. This is great ?Without this system set up (I would of not known that going long here is not most opportune time....) Blue candle suggesting neutral Larry Williams creator of WR% suggest going long when line is pointing up from below.He was a commodity trader so he waited 5 days then traded the signal. Forex 5 days is huge but waiting...
I really like your use of bands on daily with the deviations. Something super simple I do is short only below the daily open, buys only above.
  • #1,500
  • Jul 5, 2014 1:10pm Jul 5, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting calderone
{quote} I really like your use of bands on daily with the deviations. Something super simple I do is short only below the daily open, buys only above.
Set with my latest candles and wave you will see things lot clearer.

I changed WR% to 14 default from 8.I get better signals

I want to share something.I spent last 5hours studying this indicator.More I study more I love it.
When price fails to break above -20 or below-80 suggests trend is topping out.When it breaks these levels wait for it to come back then enter.
Look
Yellow boxes H4 also happens to be in inside BB zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.h4.png Size: 59 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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