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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #761
  • Jul 3, 2014 9:34pm Jul 3, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi saticolor86 Try 168 on 5 min. This is how I calculate the correct CCIs for each timeframe. If we use the 14 period as our base CCI then all you have to do is multiply it by the next timeframe up which is approximately 15 times higher . like this: 1 min use 15 min trend 14x15=210 5 min use 1 hr trend as theres 12x5 mins in an hour so its 14x12=168 15 min use 4 hr trend as theres 16x15mins in a 4hr so its 14x16=224 1hr use the daily trend as theres 24xhrs in a day so its 14x24=336 4hr use the weekly trend daily use the monthly trend I will...
hi there Clive,

thanks for the very detailed explanation and good reasoning. Will test it out today.
thanks for the advice, appreciate it.
  • #762
  • Jul 3, 2014 9:40pm Jul 3, 2014 9:40pm
Quoting pres78
Watching TV flipping through my charts and watched this EURJPY system trade unfold so I said OK fine Asia session I'll bite... 3 pip SL.. At 1:1 so far. Want 1.5:1 before I go to bed... Then close half and happy dreams while part 2 runs. Nice clean PA triple rejection off 139. Set fixed TP for part 2 at 7:1 which will be hit before 75 level. {image} Edit 1.5:1 hit and TP set on part 2... off to bed all risk removed.
hi Clive,

would you mind sharing the HA smoothed? thanks.
the ones i have are obscuring the price bars which can get quite annoying.

thank you.
  • #763
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:25am Jul 4, 2014 1:25am
NZD weakness over night thats my morning analysis done.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #764
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:31am Jul 4, 2014 1:31am
pending order placed 2 pips above price
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #765
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:47am Jul 4, 2014 1:47am
Heres my long term view of same trade on a 5 min chart.

See I do use higher timeframes Mr V.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #766
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:55am Jul 4, 2014 1:55am
Quoting clivepackham
Heres my long term view of same trade on a 5 min chart. See I do use higher timeframes Mr V. {image}
Sit down have a cuppa I'm worried you'll throw your back out or something, the strain of going up to a 5 min chart!!
  • #767
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:59am Jul 4, 2014 1:59am
Took off half moved stop to 7 pips so pres78 BE paper stop will it stop or go???

Who cares now I'm safe?????
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #768
  • Jul 4, 2014 2:12am Jul 4, 2014 2:12am
Closed other half as it wasn't a positive push past last high and theres a 15 min level lurking so thought lets start the day with a plus pips trade banked 18.1 pips at 0.5% per pip so a 9% winner mind you the problem is thats not a very good RR as one loser will take it all back but didn't feel confident I was gonna get any more, really want to see point B smashed at first attempt confirms a strong trend to me.

Back to watching.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #769
  • Jul 4, 2014 2:16am Jul 4, 2014 2:16am
Quoting clivepackham
Closed other half as it wasn't a positive push past last high and theres a 15 min level lurking so thought lets start the day with a plus pips trade banked 18.1 pips at 0.5% per pip so a 9% winner mind you the problem is thats not a very good RR as one loser will take it all back but didn't feel confident I was gonna get any more, really want to see point B smashed at first attempt confirms a strong trend to me. Back to watching. {image}
Nice one.
  • #770
  • Jul 4, 2014 2:25am Jul 4, 2014 2:25am
Of course the other thing is looking at the long term charts you know 15 mins this is a pullback in a strong down trend so I've pinched a handful against the bigger trend so looking for a 15 min CCI turn back down with the trend on these pairs in particular EURAUD EURNZD very strong daily trenders down.

Of course that don't mean anything to the little old one min , nothing to say he's not going to go the other way all day, but London has got a habit of returning back with the daily trend.

Just gonna watch a bit and see what top trenders we got in 30 mins or so.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #771
  • Jul 4, 2014 2:43am Jul 4, 2014 2:43am
Same again bagged 8.1 half stop now at 7 pips and still nicely behind 100sma so gonna let this go a bit as gotta feeling this is a post NFP trade
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #772
  • Jul 4, 2014 2:59am Jul 4, 2014 2:59am
First trades now at our paper BE and strong trend still in place CCI -100 and last push down was stronger than previous one so no reason not to add on next turn is there??
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #773
  • Jul 4, 2014 3:10am Jul 4, 2014 3:10am
Quoting clivepackham
First trades now at our paper BE and strong trend still in place CCI -100 and last push down was stronger than previous one so no reason not to add on next turn is there?? {image}
I have gbp and usd quite close on strength/weakness so I wouldn't have considered this. Its US hols so market can go snooze at any time when London has decided they've done enough. Definitely a day where I'd say be happy to walk away at any time with what you have in the bank and definitely don't chase trades expecting massive runs. It can happen but unlikely, IMHO.
  • #774
  • Jul 4, 2014 3:15am Jul 4, 2014 3:15am
Clive, you have taken some knocks and I am very, very pleased to see you take 100% system trades and banking profits. In a week or 3 of seeing this your confidence in method, seeing it work, will change your outlook completely. You have everything you need to see this through, stay focused, don't run around trying new things.

Very, very nice.
  • #775
  • Jul 4, 2014 3:35am Jul 4, 2014 3:35am
Quoting Vantage
Clive, you have taken some knocks and I am very, very pleased to see you take 100% system trades and banking profits. In a week or 3 of seeing this your confidence in method, seeing it work, will change your outlook completely. You have everything you need to see this through, stay focused, don't run around trying new things. Very, very nice.
Thanks Mr V.

Praise indeed coming from a awesome trader like yourself. Thank you very much but as you say still got loads to learn.

Like that last GBPUSD trade I just took played it very nicely did all the right things, caught the trade, moved to safety with pres78 paper BE move, nice stronger move down and CCI below -100 level so everything said strong trend in place so ok to load.So I did very nice entry again got a few pips up so moved previous trade stop to hard BE as first entry retest over.

Then I got a failed drive down so thought to myself oh oh typical soon as I add a trade it decides to go the other way. (Its done it so many times in the past that I've had a good winning position add to it and then whoosh takes me out for everything and I end up with a loss)From that experience ringing in my head I thought eh eh not this bloody time and closed it all out for a net win of about 4%.

Now its yet to prove whether that was the right thing to do or did I get shaken out too soon???

Guess now that I have the entry and BE moves sorted out the next thing to learn is the trade management and how to "trade the trend" and maximise our winners?

Anyway so far so good now up about 13% on a tricky day so not complaining but as always I will keep looking to improve every stage of my strategy until I get it right. Bit like that giuded missile all it does is constantly corrects itself when it goes wrong until it hits its target.

Thats me in a nut shell, just gonna keep learning from every mistake until I get it right.

Like my old Dad use to say Mr V.

" Make a mistake once and its ok, twice is understandable but 3 times son, you're a fool!!"

I'm getting there!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #776
  • Jul 4, 2014 4:03am Jul 4, 2014 4:03am
Quick question for all you Elliot Wave guys?

I've marked out my simple understanding of an Elliot Wave on that last move down by GBPUSD, not being an expert I have no idea whats suppose to happen next???

Any ideas guys??? is it suppose to continue back down after its ABC move or go back up???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #777
  • Jul 4, 2014 4:05am Jul 4, 2014 4:05am
3 system trades (well 5 actually as there was 3 chances to get in on GBPJPY) for your enjoyment... green lines show possible trades between FO and into / after LO.

This was just a quick sample from 8 pairs (there are some more...)

I have some very interesting discoveries on entries that I have been testing that can offer some protection from getting into "system" trades that have less chance of success. As I get this nailed down I will open the vaults... it is very interesting indeed.

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US Holiday so come NYO I am closing the charts.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #778
  • Jul 4, 2014 4:13am Jul 4, 2014 4:13am
Quoting clivepackham
Quick question for all you Elliot Wave guys? I've marked out my simple understanding of an Elliot Wave on that last move down by GBPUSD, not being an expert I have no idea whats suppose to happen next??? Any ideas guys??? is it suppose to continue back down after its ABC move or go back up??? {image}
Well your 5 waves meet the rules with wave 2 not retracing more than 1, 3 is the longest wave... you have a rough ABC correction. I did not measure the waves 2 and 4 to see what fib retracement level these hit on 1 and 3.

Point 2 and 4 great system trades... why oh why the sell stop?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #779
  • Jul 4, 2014 4:15am Jul 4, 2014 4:15am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Thanks Mr V. Praise indeed coming from a awesome trader like yourself. Thank you very much but as you say still got loads to learn. Like that last GBPUSD trade I just took played it very nicely did all the right things, caught the trade, moved to safety with pres78 paper BE move, nice stronger move down and CCI below -100 level so everything said strong trend in place so ok to load.So I did very nice entry again got a few pips up so moved previous trade stop to hard BE as first entry retest over. Then I got a failed drive down so thought...
OK you use a much higher risk % than I do, but the answer to your question is what did I do for the day and can I repeat that. If the answer is 13% a day forget everything else, it doesn't matter.

Yes by all means look at what the market gives every day (in the time periods when you are in front of the computer as its no use saying euraud did 150 pip range but 125 pips was 3am in the morning when Aussie news came out) and see what your system gives you. The most important point is what you can get from that consistently from your method, then be happy with that or try another method.

Back to previous issues, on the 4th, 5th entry in run. There is a big difference between getting in on 4th move in run when its your 1st trade of the day and getting in 4th move when you have been in and profited from the first 3. There will be some days where they just go and go and go, but they are the exception not the rule.
  • #780
  • Jul 4, 2014 4:20am Jul 4, 2014 4:20am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Well your 5 waves meet the rules with wave 2 not retracing more than 1, 3 is the longest wave... you have a rough ABC correction. I did not measure the waves 2 and 4 to see what fib retracement level these hit on 1 and 3. Point 2 and 4 great system trades... why oh why the sell stop?
Oh and normally point C will exceed point A and end around the high of point 4 up to 1.618 of wave A... I am a basic Wave guy though so I am not sure what happens after point C fails to even get back to point A...

Normally however after C we would go back into a new 5 wave count... With a failed wave C though... HMMM. Remember also one a 1 minute chart we are seeing the waves inside the waves that are inside the waves etc... That whole 5 count is one leg on a higher TF.

I don't count waves in my CCI trading per say but I do watch how much we are retracing within the previous swing to check power of the move and how much we are extending. That said as wave 3 is famously the longest wave we want to get in after wave 2... that's the money wave!

Any wave guys out there?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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