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Illusion of Time(frames)

  • #181
  • May 19, 2014 5:54am May 19, 2014 5:54am
Quoting ElectroGypsy
{quote} A lot of people would disagree with what you posit as an absolute (your second sentence). For anyone who solely trades the Forex market, poke your head in the other markets for a couple of days. It's a great exercise and you'll learn some important stuff. There are plenty of alternative ways that professional traders make money without ever opening a chart. In fact, I've heard that Goldman makes their Futures traders keep their charts closed for the first few months (but I can't confirm). I'm not instigating a "holy grail" hunt, but saying...
Sorry, I think you misheard. I agree with what you say, I just meant from a charting perspective using time frames to dissect the data is the most efficient and effective way. Ever seen a weeks worth of tics? The thread after all is about "Time frames"
like totally failure brah
  • #182
  • May 20, 2014 3:33pm May 20, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting ElectroGypsy
{quote} A lot of people would disagree with what you posit as an absolute (your second sentence). For anyone who solely trades the Forex market, poke your head in the other markets for a couple of days. It's a great exercise and you'll learn some important stuff. There are plenty of alternative ways that professional traders make money without ever opening a chart. In fact, I've heard that Goldman makes their Futures traders keep their charts closed for the first few months (but I can't confirm). I'm not instigating a "holy grail" hunt, but saying...

I agree 100 percent. But to understand why let's go back to how it started.Back in the day when technical analyst were still fine tuning the market cycles and defining what was going on in the market. They were still using the ticker tape, and just the fact of you seeing a chart was a big advantage over almost every other retailer, it was an advantage because you got to see the market from another perspective that was tucked aside and away from public view. They even had chartist back then who only drew charts and nothing else. Fast forward to now and just having a chart (in any time frame) is not an edge anymore,and they know it is the way that almost all retailers see the market, so they shake the market more to confuse the issue and make it hard to see the picture.And it has been known that given the chance humans act very similar when presented with the same external stimili. I traded many ways and I can still trade fine the old fashion way of using multiple timeframe analysis, but in today's day you are leaving information on the table. Like I said for some that is fine and they are happy with that, but for me and others who are trying to get more of an edge and perspective, it simply is not true that a timeframe is the best way to make a judgement call. What I am doing is no different from the old guys who left the ticker tape when the public was glued to it to make charts and get another perspective.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #183
  • May 21, 2014 3:14am May 21, 2014 3:14am
Saneblane said it best about redundant/non redundant data and i personally agree, since for me it comes down to what data is redundant and what is essential, which is a combination of price and volume and how one interprets it.

Everything else seems rather redundant to me, and since any and all trades begin as a scalp, they can end up with:
1) Small loss (volume/price dictate).
2) Small profit (volume/price dictate).
3) Medium/Large profit (volume/price/... dictate).
Personally the only thing i see value in timeframes is market opens/closes and estimated ranges per session.

Small loss, small win require price/volume data and for medium/big win it requires more since other 'data' kicks in.

Of course, everyone is entitled to an opinion, since this itself creates a market. But can somebody pick the correct opinion every day?
  • #184
  • Jun 30, 2014 5:10am Jun 30, 2014 5:10am
Quoting Pipalicious
Saneblane said it best about redundant/non redundant data and i personally agree, since for me it comes down to what data is redundant and what is essential, which is a combination of price and volume and how one interprets it. Everything else seems rather redundant to me, and since any and all trades begin as a scalp, they can end up with: 1) Small loss (volume/price dictate). 2) Small profit (volume/price dictate). 3) Medium/Large profit (volume/price/... dictate). Personally the only thing i see value in timeframes is market opens/closes and...

Seems to me time frames are irrelevant. Charts are just there to show the history of price, in reality Daily charts make the most sense. But we shouldn't really need to look at a chart, no indicators are needed, only price matters.

So marking support/resistance/ major pivotal points is all that really matters imo.
  • #185
  • Edited Jul 3, 2014 7:36am Jul 2, 2014 10:18am | Edited Jul 3, 2014 7:36am
I've read on 2+2 gambling site that for technical analysis to work you must find a pattern on a chart that other traders don't know. So you may have an edge with technical analysis but only if most of traders don't know about your strategy. The strategies that are common knowledge won't give an edge. Does anyone know the logic behind this idea? It says the only thing classical technical analysis is good to be known is to maybe trade in the other direction than what classical technical analysis teaches. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30...22/index8.html

I have a strategy using support and resistance that seems to be winning but my trading style is original. So are the support and resistance that I use, I don't trade any support and resistance, only those that behave in a specific way. And I have a lot of filters that many traders don't use. So maybe it's true that only if you know something which isn't common knowledge you can win? On the other hand I mainly use support and resistance, and these are common knowledge. So I don't know what to think. I also take very few trades usually on daily.
  • #186
  • Jul 2, 2014 4:56pm Jul 2, 2014 4:56pm
If you find an edge with technical analysis actually you don't have to be worried most traders will use it. Most traders don't use technical analysis. And you can use TA in an infinity of ways. Some will use EMAs, others SMAs, other stochastics, fibs, others will use support and resistance but in different ways. In practice there's no way a lot of traders can use your strategy.

But in theory, if a lot of traders would use your strategy it won't have an edge anymore and if all traders would use your strategy it will be profitable to trade in opposite direction. What if the logic behind this? I don't get it.
  • #187
  • Jul 3, 2014 12:50am Jul 3, 2014 12:50am
I believe time frames and there associated charts are not necessarily required to make successful trading.But it would be like not switching on the aircon in your apartment when its hot.

Like everthing in life they serve a purpose and the more one looks at alternative ways of using them new insights become apparent.its already been mentioned many times in previous posts regarding a reference point . Certainly for me, this is very much missed in conventional ways of time frame and candle stick analysis.
if you can take a measurement from a fixed point and calculate it potential energy this can give slight advantage in itself,this is the point that ,that information no longer has or obeys a particular time frame . we now have an average,is price trading below or above that average,we have a measurement taken from a reference point and its potential energy.we now have a potential cycle,there are slight advantages in all those pieces of information.working out which cycle is presently in motion is something else,but also possible.things become slightly more advantageous when multiple cycles converge to a certain price point,again this is not time related.so time frames and charts for me become the constant.

now this will probably come across as a load of contrived nonsense and that's fine by me,and it may also be a fragment of my over zealous imagination ,but all I can say is coincidence may well be a tool in itself.
  • #188
  • Edited 5:59am Jul 3, 2014 5:34am | Edited 5:59am
If a technical strategy works from a 1 minute time frame with very small take profits and stop loss on daily chart it almost won't be seen.
But a breakout/reversal of a daily resistance/support will appear as huge if you look on 1 minute charts.
Support/resistance from daily will look huge on very small time frames, but support/resistance from very small time frames will be very tiny on daily charts.
I always wondered if a technical strategy from low time frames have the same chances of success as daily charts.

On very small time frames you can only trade the majors because of spread. The majors are also traded by institutional traders with alghoritmic trading. Aren't you at a huge disadvantage if you try to compete with them? The majors are also more efficient (more close to their real value) than other pairs.

On medium time frames you can add other pairs that probably aren't traded so much by institutional traders (I think they mainly trade the pairs with the highest liquidity, the majors). I also have problems with very high time frames because of efficient market hypothesis. On very high time frames the deviation from the pair's real value will look very small. And if it's not a big deviation you won't find a profitable strategy with huge take profits and stop loss. On smaller time frames the deviation from the real value will look bigger than on high time frames.
  • #189
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:08pm Jul 3, 2014 5:08pm
You know when you really look at it, the timeframe in this day and age really isn't needed. Time is more important than a timeframe, for instant a big order came in a 8:30, what does timeframe have to do with that? It actually ridiculous when you think about it. The only thing that they are good for is giving an idea of what everyone else are seeing and might act upon nothing else. You can trade the market simply from the point of acceleration and deceleration and nothing else, again what does a timeframe have to do with that? absolutely nothing.

I just started to learn to program or I probably would have written myself a program that cut through all that bullshit already, seeing that I do it manually. It takes about 4:1 ratio of buying vs selling (or vice verse) to stack the market in your favor and give you a low risk entry, again what does timeframe have to do with that? nothing. I am mostly focused on learning to program now , so some of my research would be put on hold, because I am sure that without a doubt that an Algo with proper well define rules could trade with a good win rate and high RR, or even give even faster information in real time about the state of the market.

And also they say that all timeframes are the same and that is bullshit, it's bullshit because all market has a limit, for instant price can accelerate on a lower timeframe by 4 times, but I have yet to see it accelerate that much on weekly timeframe, and the answer for this is quite simple when you think about it, even on a smaller timeframe price acceleration can be caused by an order that is 8 times the previous, and that might be billions of dollars. But on a weekly timeframe to achieve that same aceleration might require trillions upon trillions in continuous orders, and we all know that simply will not happen, seeing that all currencies are kept in line by there respective central banks. Anyway time for me to stop ranting.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #190
  • Jul 3, 2014 11:09pm Jul 3, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting saneblane
You know when you really look at it, the timeframe in this day and age really isn't needed. Time is more important than a timeframe, for instant a big order came in a 8:30, what does timeframe have to do with that? It actually ridiculous when you think about it. The only thing that they are good for is giving an idea of what everyone else are seeing and might act upon nothing else. You can trade the market simply from the point of acceleration and deceleration and nothing else, again what does a timeframe have to do with that? absolutely nothing....
The chart and time frame are a tool,its not required but can be helpful,we need a point to measure the acceleration point from .and its potential energy so a time frame becomes usefull for this purpose.a single candle stick from a fixed point ,regardless of the time frame you use.the ratio is less than 4 and quite precise.the reason why a lower time frame calculation appears to adhere to this truth is 1 of two reasons,firstly its less effected by the unknown variables,and secondly we are still using the time factor which no longer has any significance whats so ever.this is the failing of using a t/f and chart to manage our trades.the measurement is only its potential if undisturbed by changing unknown variables.

The tornado followers in the states .they are able to determine if a certain tornado is worthy of chasing ,loading all there high tech gadgetry in to vans and chasing.they have calculated from a fixed point that its potential energy could be worthy of the chase.if the unknown variable's remain favourable it will produce there expected outcome so hence the chase is on.

the larger time period you measure somthings maximum potential the more the unknown variables are likely to effect its potential.But the potential and that potential energy has no bearing on time or related to the period of time you calculated from.

On a weekly time frame are you expecting its potential to complete within a week.apart from the unknown vairables it has no bearing on the period you calcluted from .this is were your time frame and chart become a illusion.they are irrelivent in this respect in fact they don't exist.
  • #191
  • Jul 3, 2014 11:39pm Jul 3, 2014 11:39pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} The chart and time frame are a tool,its not required but can be helpful,we need a point to measure the acceleration point from .and its potential energy so a time frame becomes usefull for this purpose.a single candle stick from a fixed point ,regardless of the time frame you use.the ratio is less than 4 and quite precise.the reason why a lower time frame calculation appears to adhere to this truth is 1 of two reasons,firstly its less effected by the unknown variables,and secondly we are still using the time factor which no longer has any...
I use 4:1 because it lt gives more wiggle room, the forex market doesn't give exact figures after all. But yea you summed it up quite nicely there. And it's the reason why I started to learn programming, because when you get right down to it, the market is all numbers.You could use a stop watch for a frame of reference, and it's the reason why I say time is more important than a timeframe because of that, I better stop there, my tinfoil hat might start to show. Anyway may the pip be with you.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #192
  • Jul 4, 2014 12:57am Jul 4, 2014 12:57am
Consider that some news events occur at the half hour mark, and some at the 45 minute mark. I have to wonder why, since obviously it makes sense to time a release to have maximum impact on your readership. Should we,in these cases, move to 15 min charts or half hours Charts?I have not found this necessary.

Sometimes the market moves faster than the trace can keep up on any scale, even the tick chart. Sometimes the movement is glacial. Same thing seems to hold true for the broker's response.

Reality has exactitudes beyond the ability of any instrument to measure. One's carefully calculated response can be overtaken by another's sudden decision to put a Thousand lot buy entry in the mix. It happens.

Don't spend so much time determining the exact change of course that you fail to avoid the rocky shoal ahead of you...
  • #193
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:29am Jul 4, 2014 1:29am
Quoting Rap Skallion
Don't spend so much time determining the exact change of course that you fail to avoid the rocky shoal ahead of you...

Hahha. there are moments when you just have to take your lost, and I think if after when you decide to jump in and it doesn't pan out, then to take your lost with a smile is the best that you can do. There will always be a next one
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #194
  • Jul 4, 2014 2:49am Jul 4, 2014 2:49am
Quoting Rap Skallion
Consider that some news events occur at the half hour mark, and some at the 45 minute mark. I have to wonder why, since obviously it makes sense to time a release to have maximum impact on your readership. Should we,in these cases, move to 15 min charts or half hours Charts?I have not found this necessary. Sometimes the market moves faster than the trace can keep up on any scale, even the tick chart. Sometimes the movement is glacial. Same thing seems to hold true for the broker's response. Reality has exactitudes beyond the ability of any instrument...
Hi Rap.

ill try to explain the way in which that through calculation its possible to understands its structure .

This is the good thing about charts its visionary and serves its purpose for this.

earlier in the week you can see the hour average ,the 15 minute average and its potential high point did not exist.my focus was on the hour levels.until price accelerated through the hour average and temporally exhausted at it maximum potential .measuring that force using a 15 minute period as the reference I can calculate its average and its maximum potential.it does not surprise me at all that price exhausted at that level which has not been visited for a very long time,so that level is not taken from history.whilst price trades above its average theres more advantage taking longs than looking for shorts,when price reaches its potential my only initial interest is shorts until price eccelerates through that level.these potential levels of price will form futer s/r.this is the making of price structure.the news and such are drivers.what makes this so complicated is its happening on a multitude of levels.if the drivers take the considered value down the same thing transpires below the average,the calculations consider both eventualities.

this is not time dependant although the drivers are.

not really directed to you personally and ofcoarse its very subjective im only scraping the surface of this but in the time ive been working in this way im at times mesmerised at how clinically precise and how price adheres to its underlying structure.
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  • #195
  • Jul 4, 2014 4:03am Jul 4, 2014 4:03am
to Diceman555:
I have copied this and will study it in detail with a fresh mind. You have several points which seem worthy to me. I do not think we are fundamentally different in philosophy: just never consider this aspect in detail.
regards,
  • #196
  • Jul 4, 2014 7:12am Jul 4, 2014 7:12am
Illusion of time frames - I would say it's a delusion!
As if something of value can be revealed by boxing in price activity !
To divide price activity into time frames makes no sense at all.
What makes sense is to note the "effort from point a to point b"
Call that a swing or a leg if you wish; That "impulse" transcends time frames. Learn to read it.
  • #197
  • Jul 4, 2014 7:20am Jul 4, 2014 7:20am
I wonder how you acount for the "two to twos": the fact that the period from 2am est, to 2pm est. is much more active than the period 2pm est. to 2am est.
  • #198
  • Jul 4, 2014 8:21am Jul 4, 2014 8:21am
What ive come to realize is that the 'response' of movement (price) is in direct correlation with multiple factors/variables outside of charts, some are subjective meanwhile others are objective. For example:
Objective = 100k has been dumped into the market on the long side.
Subjective = Intentions BEHIND the 100k dumped into the market on the long side.
Having said that, many of these 'objective' variables can (and have been) quantified, but that is not enough. Because even though they affect price it does not mean that price will respond in the exact same manner.

If someone dumped 100k and it moves price from A to B, that same amount later on (or even before such ocurrance) may NOT move price from A to B (it may be more...it may be less). So this shows that there are two 'objective' variables that affect price movement, that being the money dumped in vs. the 'resistance' of price itself (NOT s/r levels). And nothing ive said is a secret, everybody has access to this information....its what each person does with this info that matters.

I think timeFRAMES do have validity, but not in the way i have seen anybody talk about, far from it.
But this (in my research) is only valid providing the other data is used in conjunction to create decision trees (because what may move price today may not do it another day) with control limits that adjust over time.
  • #199
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:17am Jan 20, 2015 8:17am
Quoting Pipalicious
What the hell does a 1h TF have to do with a massive order placed 24seconds ago? By using TF's arent we constantly trading the 'past' yet to be succesful arent we supposed to trade the 'now' (in context)?
Excellent thread here with a really good question you posed. I've always thought TFs that are measured in packaged time are a bit of an issue. I've always thought real TFs can be viewed in terms of directional movement. I.e., using some minimum span of distance to measure each one.


Quoting Pipalicious
What exactly is a REAL consistent pro trader looking for on a chart?
Are the REAL consistent professionals even looking at charts?!?!?!
  • #200
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:00am Jan 20, 2015 10:00am
timeframes are just a zooming function on the same data. it's all the same data. sometimes its easier to zoom in to see a specific level when placing a trade, sometimes it's better to see the overall picture and trade from that perspective. most of the time you need to see the big picture because the big swings happen in relation to the big picture. price doesn't reach an important area every 15 minutes, or hour, or day. don't trade 'a time frame' - trade the data from major zones of probable supply and demand (s&r), and zoom in if you want to see more detail, zoom out if you want more context.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett
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