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Illusion of Time(frames)

  • #161
  • May 15, 2014 10:30pm May 15, 2014 10:30pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Davit, I believe you misunderstand me. Time is very "Real". "How" you look at things, affects what you believe you "perceive". It’s how you look at the data itself. By segmenting your data into "time intervals" (30m, 1hr, 4hr, etc.) each segment, the beginning & end of the time series data creates the “high & low". Instead of looking at the data as “continuous “flow of data. You create “breaks” in your data, by the tf periodicity you choose. These breaks appear as S&R. I chose not to put those restraints on my analysis. I keep my data analysis...
To be honest my trading method does not take much of candle data as important.I can easily get same results 6-8% a month by using line chart.
To me most important factor is price and where it is.That price took 2hours or 3days to get where I want is irrelevant.
Perhaps I should of not poked my nose here
I apologize for my comments that are not relevant in this discussion.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #162
  • May 15, 2014 10:38pm May 15, 2014 10:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} To be honest my trading method does not take much of candle data as important.I can easily get same results 6-8% a month by using line chart. To me most important factor is price and where it is.That price took 2hours or 3days to get where I want is irrelevant. Perhaps I should of not poked my nose here I apologize for my comments that are not relevant in this discussion. Regards

Lol no man, what you said was very relevant. You just said that you could use line charts and that's another perspective, so you did contribute to the topic. The thing that I have noticed is that traders who are successful have other qualities, skills, ways of seeing the market and ways of trading that they do subconsciously but it gives them an edge. They do things a little different than most, I guess the original poster of the thread was just venting what he noticed and they are as valid today as they were when he started this thread. I brought it back to life because it might help someone who is trying to think outside the box.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #163
  • May 15, 2014 10:53pm May 15, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Lol no man, what you said was very relevant. You just said that you could use line charts and that's another perspective, so you did contribute to the topic. The thing that I have noticed is that traders who are successful have other qualities, skills, ways of seeing the market and ways of trading that they do subconsciously but it gives them an edge. They do things a little different than most, I guess the original poster of the thread was just venting what he noticed and they are as valid today as they were when he started this thread....
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #164
  • May 15, 2014 10:59pm May 15, 2014 10:59pm
The challenge for me is to absorb the market, to glean from price movement where its heading.

Candles offer one view.

I would be keen to explore others, but what are they?

Can we measure the rate of change of price, or the increase in activity (vol if you like), or the change in spread, or compare the change in the bid price versus the change in the ask - if we could do so effectively then this could provide an alternative view of the market and so another potential edge that might be employed in harnessing price action with the view to predict the direction of the next tick move.
" check out The Traders Outpost "
  • #165
  • May 15, 2014 11:03pm May 15, 2014 11:03pm
Quoting RedLineFred
The challenge for me is to absorb the market, to glean from price movement where its heading. Candles offer one view. I would be keen to explore others, but what are they? Can we measure the rate of change of price, or the increase in activity (vol if you like), or the change in spread, or compare the change in the bid price versus the change in the ask - if we could do so effectively then this could provide an alternative view of the market and so another potential edge that might be employed in harnessing price action with the view to predict...
That's what I do for flow trading, and it gives me a different perspective on the market. The thing for most people though is they do not know how to get the data and wouldn't know how much or lack there of data to filter. When does data become Irrelevant? that's another question that needs to be answered before any meaningful analysis can be made. I don't have all the answers, but I can say that I get to process more data than the average retailer and it is fun and when things align some easy trades are made. But it is a lot of research, price moves differently than you might thing when it can be viewed in isolation.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #166
  • May 15, 2014 11:06pm May 15, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting RedLineFred
Can we measure the rate of change of price
Yes, indicator called ATR.

Quoting RedLineFred
or the increase in activity (vol if you like)
Yes, indicator called Momentum.

Quoting RedLineFred
or the increase in activity (vol if you like), or the change in spread
Yes, indicator called the Money Flow Index.



All this stacked together is meaningless unless you understand market movements and deviations...and even less so, if you have no concept of trend.

Find the trend, follow the money and don't worry about the next tick...the likelihood of prospering from a single tick are slim to none...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #167
  • May 15, 2014 11:09pm May 15, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting Magix
{quote}the likelihood of prospering from a single tick are slim to none...

That is a statement I cannot disagree with. Just from spread alone you're most likely going to lose. I am always trying to research and disprove things, but this is one of them that has eluded me, so I have to agree. I think it might be for the HFT, but I am fine with that. Money to be made other ways.

The indicators on the other hand though I have reservations about, I tried them and the info they provided leaves a lot to be desired, I am sure a trader some where can use them but for what I want they just don't do. If you want the exact information you want you're going to have to get a custom indicator made, but you have to come up with the strategy first or a formula to do it.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #168
  • May 15, 2014 11:16pm May 15, 2014 11:16pm
There is no illusion about timeframes. They're the most definable and logical way to break down the movements of the market into adigestible sequence.

The illusion is the way in which they are exploited/ used and viewed.
like totally failure brah
  • #169
  • May 15, 2014 11:23pm May 15, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting saneblane
If you want the exact information you want you're going to have to get a custom indicator made, but you have to come up with the strategy first or a formula to do it.

No you don't...

Why not just learn to use the tools available?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #170
  • May 15, 2014 11:27pm May 15, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting simonb
There is no illusion about timeframes. They're the most definable and logical way to break down the movements of the market into adigestible sequence. The illusion is the way in which they are exploited/ used and viewed.
One example I can give is this: One broker on London time another on NY... 4H charts

The price over the same period moved on exactly the same way, yet the price patterns and conventional candle stick/ bar price action differ.
like totally failure brah
  • #171
  • May 15, 2014 11:31pm May 15, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting simonb
There is no illusion about timeframes. They're the most definable and logical way to break down the movements if the market into adigestible sequence. The illusion is the way in which they are exploited/ used and viewed.
You might be right. But the banks would beg to differ, the way they exploit the market is partly based on this "illusion" in a 1 minute period, but this 1 minute period is not on a single minute candle, it happens on two separate candles, they way they hide their buying and selling is they start their orders at the last 30 seconds of the first candle, and end the buying at the first 30 seconds of the other candle, flooding the market with order that are hard to spot even on the tiniest of time frames (the 1 minute chart).

You might be right and you may be able to get information from a candle stick chart (timeframe) than most, but I like to have other perspectives.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #172
  • May 15, 2014 11:32pm May 15, 2014 11:32pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} No you don't... Why not just learn to use the tools available?
They are not the best that can be done, that's all. I am picky that way.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #173
  • May 15, 2014 11:40pm May 15, 2014 11:40pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} You might be right. But the banks would beg to differ, the way they exploit the market is partly based on this "illusion" in a 1 minute period, but this 1 minute period is not on a single minute candle, it happens on two separate candles, they way they hide their buying and selling is they start their orders at the last 30 seconds of the first candle, and end the buying at the first 30 seconds of the other candle, flooding the market with order that are hard to spot even on the tiniest of time frames (the 1 minute chart). You might be right...
You lost me there, what would the banks beg to differ. Thankfully I don't need to know what the banks are doing to pull my chedda.
like totally failure brah
  • #174
  • May 15, 2014 11:40pm May 15, 2014 11:40pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} They are not the best that can be done, that's all. I am picky that way.
Keep being picky...nobody is holding a gun to your head...

As for use of indicators, I have coded an auto trader and have had the trigger logic dropped into a little more efficient vehicle...

Trading off of the M1:
Original Logic as applied HERE.
As applied more efficiently HERE.

Versions of which, I do test live.

If you can find better, drop me a line...I'd be all ears!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #175
  • May 15, 2014 11:45pm May 15, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} You lost me there, what would the banks beg to differ. Thankfully I don't need to know what the banks are doing to pull my chedda.

Lol it's true as long as we make money that's the most important thing. Everything else is secondary.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #176
  • May 15, 2014 11:46pm May 15, 2014 11:46pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Keep being picky...nobody is holding a gun to your head... As for use of indicators, I have coded an auto trader and have had the trigger logic dropped into a little more efficient vehicle... Trading off of the M1: Original Logic as applied HERE. As applied more efficiently HERE. Versions of which, I do test live. If you can find better, drop me a line...I'd be all ears!
Good post Magix I might take them for a night on the town and see how they perform.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #177
  • Edited May 16, 2014 12:08am May 15, 2014 11:57pm | Edited May 16, 2014 12:08am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Good post Magix I might take them for a night on the town and see how they perform.
Same Robot, but applied to Multiple (illusionary) time frames.



HERE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MTCOUNTER.png Size: 44 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #178
  • May 16, 2014 4:12am May 16, 2014 4:12am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Ok so you look at candlesticks from a more mathematical standpoint? I guess that is one way to look at it too. At the end of the day I think the most important thing is doing what is best for you, some people are fine with candle sticks and others like myself know that there are other ways of looking at price and more efficient ways of getting information. to each his own I guess.
This is Very Good to Lock at Market With Thinking Out Side The box and Thinking in Other Ways Like What you siad
until When people see Charts Like What They told to Everyone That Would be all 50-50% chance and Of course Timeframe Does not mean anything
There is a Lot of Ways to analyses The Markets and Your way is one of theme and Everyone have its Own Way
Good Luck
You Must Love CandleSticks
  • #179
  • May 16, 2014 8:33am May 16, 2014 8:33am
Quoting AmirShahiN
{quote} This is Very Good to Lock at Market With Thinking Out Side The box and Thinking in Other Ways Like What you siad until When people see Charts Like What They told to Everyone That Would be all 50-50% chance and Of course Timeframe Does not mean anything There is a Lot of Ways to analyses The Markets and Your way is one of theme and Everyone have its Own Way Good Luck
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #180
  • May 18, 2014 6:33pm May 18, 2014 6:33pm
Quoting simonb
There is no illusion about timeframes. They're the most definable and logical way to break down the movements of the market into adigestible sequence. The illusion is the way in which they are exploited/ used and viewed.
A lot of people would disagree with what you posit as an absolute (your second sentence).

For anyone who solely trades the Forex market, poke your head in the other markets for a couple of days. It's a great exercise and you'll learn some important stuff. There are plenty of alternative ways that professional traders make money without ever opening a chart. In fact, I've heard that Goldman makes their Futures traders keep their charts closed for the first few months (but I can't confirm).

I'm not instigating a "holy grail" hunt, but saying that TFs are the "most" or "best" at anything is nowhere near as definitive as you make it out to be.
I'm a dog chasing cars.
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