The theater - trading analysis and setups

I have decided to re open my little teather (previously hosted on another site), and let the puppets dance for a while again.
The market is a big stage of instruments/puppets - and muppets too - moved by greedy puppeteers, is a big show, like the most interesting one's a very dangerous one.
The only purpose of this treadh is to share my point of view and my ideas about trading, my live trades / setups and anything else i think could be helpful or interesting for a trader, and discuss about it.
Is my little way to give back the few things that i have learned during the past years.
I own a debt of to some generous traders and great peoples - yes they are few but they exist - that have shared with me and others their knowledge whitout asking nothing back; my gratitude goes to them, one name in particular comes to my mind but i am not sure he will like to read his name here. let's just say that sometime it feel good to be the patient of a good doctor
Comments, different ideas, different opinion, as your setup/trades - any instrument any timeframe - are all more than welcomed here on the stage, but please do exercise courtesy to others and refrain from personal attacks and commercials. If your ego is bigger than your head and your hart, this is not the place for you.
ps: please don't quote this post, i have intention to edit in the near future, thank you

I'm a discretionary trader that uses price as a guide, you will not find indicators attached on my charts, what i try to do all the time is to spot the imbalace between supply and demand in historical significative areas, watching price action, so "pratically" how price react to the cluster of orders that are positioned around this important areas and, hopefully, take advantage of it.
I trade mostly during the most significative and liquid session, london and new york, less during the asian session. Even if i like to ride some big run - well we all live to catch a big swing of thausand's points isn't it ? - i consider myself an intraday trader, so tight stops and cut the losses quickly are some of the most important aspects of my trading. I don't have a timeframe of reference, watching only one timeframe is like reading only the even pages of a book, you are missing half of the story, is stupid and a nonsense; so i collect all the information that i can with a top-down analysis, from the higher timeframe to the lowest, and i act according to what those information are telling to me.

First puppet on the stage is the aussie pair.
While most pair were totally fu**ed during last months - low volume, ridicoulous range, thank you quantitative easy, and yes euro i am talking about you - aussie has behaved in a decent way since january, nothing to be too much excited, but the pair has offered some decent chances to make money.
have shared this chart on twitter some days ago, [zoom to see the level, is the blue line, sorry for the high contrast chart] saying that aussie was going to test an important area, this was the thinking behind and next the outcome.
First chart is an H4 candlestick chart showing a zone [blue horizontal line] with a clear imbalance bewteen supply and demand, a support and resitence flip if you prefere.
If you don't see clearly how price respect this zone look the second chart, same timeframe, same chart, but whit a line chart. Got the idea ? Keep in mind that we are talking about an area, and an area is not always an entry point, if you trade an area like that blindly with a touch trade, well good luck with your long term profit&losses.
When you watch an area that has "historical" significance is very important watch on the lower time frame how price behaved in this area, how the cluster of supply and demand [there are quite always some significative order around this kind of area] are being absorbed, or otherwhise rispected, how price play aroud the minus s/r, especially the last time price visited the area.
So next chart is a lower time frame of the last swing [the blue circle in the first candlestick chart], perhaps that swing was an awesome opportunity to get short, a textbook trade [was a reaction to a crisp and clear decision point, need to find the time to provide some chart about it].
So this is the m5 -m1 is even more clear but i don't have the history on this pc, don't you think that minus sr is a nice one ? draw a line in that area and let'see in he next chart.
Bingo. let me be very clear about this, yes the entry was pratically pixel perfect, and yeah it feel good take trade like this one, but the true is that..ye there is a lot of thinking behind that trade* but the pizel perfect entry was luck, price fake level lake this everyday, every hour, every min; price could have easily go true that minus s/r and go 7 - 10 -20 tick above, who knows. Still even with the stop above the area is a trade with a nice R/R ratio
Your risk appetite, your ability in reading PA and your financial possibilities are the keys - other that the techical analisys - to place your entry and the stops. On the m1 like mine ? and maybe with a tight stop ? Split the risk in 2 position ? On the m1 whit a stop well above the high ? belowe the zone whit the stop...well you get the idea, a lot of different possibilities.
The exit was on a minus sr, zoom out an h1 chart and you will get the picture, just before the fomc when only silly money is trading [usully there is no liquidity before big news]. and the long, well same sr.
damn i forgot how much time took write this kind of stuff.


*[i have made just a sum here there is a lot more to say about it, exp about the higher time frame, what they are showing, but that trade is just an introduction to the way i made my analisys]

you handle this situation like???

Hi hao, sorry but i'm not sure i understand your question, can you elaborate with more detail ? tnx

bought e/u from a minus sr yesterday, no great pa from new york since now

closed the previous long on e/u yesterday night, pa was horrible during that NY session.
Decided to give another chance to the zone - despite the fact that i don't like the pa belowe that zone - only due the way the pair approached my zone of support, it dropped hard and fast when some rumors hit the market; this is one of my favourite setup a quick fast and violent retest of a previous s/r, a pure old genuine liquidity hunt. Generally speacking - there are no fixed rule - during this kind of retest price reverse in a very fast way, or at least a fast reaction is what i like to see, otherwise i'm out.

Pratically the same trade on u/chf. Entered on the retest on the lower time frame. No rocket science, uh.

Gbp/jpy fell on a nice support area on friday, but was friday so just a small position. Instead, i shoot a full metal jacked position on the retest, still holding some on a diff. account. Again, simple stuff, no rocket science. Support area, watch pa, watch how pa react to first resistence / supply area, act accordingly.

Still holding some aud long - added some more in the last days - looks like the puppet is going to test the upper resistence area [see a couple of post above]. Time will tell if i was a turd to hold for so long, but i got a nice swap too, such a rarity..
is not shown on the chart but i played the short too - from the red dotted line - and have had some small loss on some broken support that i have tryed to long too early [fat finger..my worst habit]

A small scalp -notingh more - on UCAD opened opened at the same time on the last aussie long [they are most of the time inv. corr]. Price - with the little help of some news pushed on a res. area, decision, kaboom. Already took partial profit.

Uchf broke a range area, is going to test last decision point. A decision point is an area where a nice decision on price was made, like to broke an important area [continuing or reversing the previous "trend"]

Adding some eu long, on the retest of a potential support, buyers come in - see the long wick -, kaboom. simple stuff.

Uchf yesterday low, not a surprise, uh ? [is braking as i am typing] a pixel perfect kiss. probably has still space to go lower but i took full profit on the kiss, all position closed on this one.


Aussie, well, was worth hold this puppet, is doing very well on the stage.
Simple stuff, resistence - obvious cluster of selling order -, breakout, retest during a LO session, a nice entry for a scalp, hope someone of you took it.
Watching this area as a target, will be interesting watch the behavior of price around that; in any case i could close all my position before, all depends on price action, giving back more than 3800 points is the kind of stuff that could ruin your day

CONGRATS WHITEOUT,

Thanks to start doc trader style and helping us to think his way.

Hi mak.
doc is a trader with a lot of years of experience, compared to him i am a small rookie with some very small limited experience, so i am not in position to help anyone, i am only sharing some of my trades and some of my confusing thinking; and is important to highlight that this treadh is not related to him, is my own initiative, so you could blame only me for all the bullshit you will find here.

Meanwhile i am flat on aud/usd, it missed by few point his target, but i was already out enjoying profits before the big drop. Watch the pa marked in yellow, buyers come in - in "candlestick language": the tail in this timeframe - but no follow through, instead some sellers comes in - the wick in this timeframe. Was enough to get out considering the amount of profit in play.
be carefoul now, shitload of news tomorrow and ny will early close at 13:00 due the Ind. Day holidays, high chance of nasty liquidity spikes.

Hi whiteout,

Very nice trading! Love the clean charts.

Im watching the EURUSD, it is forming a flag pattern. Do you use patterns like flags, rising/falling wedges in your trading?

The charts:

Hi keyador
no, i've always preferred getting horizontal.

Ok, that was bad, shame on me. Joking apart, my analysys is based only on support/demand - resistence/supply area, and how price behaves and act around these areas, areas where historically we saw reaction. By reaction i mean a lot of orders being opened / closed, big money that goes from hand to hand. This is, in my humble opinion, the best way or the more effective way to understand the pro money intention on a chart. Once you got the flow of the money you have just to follow the big sharks once they revealed themself.
You see a "pole" i see momentum [related to a specific timeframe] in one direction. You see a pole i see money in action [assuming a nice pole on an higher time frame]. You see a flag i see price move up/down to an area in order to filter in more order and test the value of an area.
Where this momentum come from, it start from some area of interest ? Where we are on the htf, who is buying/selling long term trader or intraday trader ? When price took off, during a liquid session ? during this momentum we had the breakout of some area of interest ? those area got retested ? on wich timeframe ? how those area react on the retest ? where price is going, where is a reasonable target for the pro money - both intra day and long term investor - where is the next area of interest ? Got the idea ?

So even if i could use sometimes the word flag to simplify my charts or the way i describe some price action, flag, channel, trendline, wedge, they have no space in my thinking.

hope it make sense.

---------
i am on a mobile now, so maybe some chart later. to understand the last drop on euro watch the highly time frame [hint: weekly], price has pinned old demand, probably a s**tload of long term buyers were trapped there, i have closed my long on eur - see post nr 9 - just around that level when pa on ltf clearly turned short. Watch even the monthly, we have had an engulf in may followed by what ? a giant drop ? no price stopped at old demand and some shy bull - the pin in june - entered in the fild. will see the next days - next week - how this will develop, if bulls wonna take the lead they will show themself soon for the reason marked in post nr 6. ps : this is just my opinion, keep in mind that NO ONE is right 100%.

-------

as expected we had some nasty liqidity move everywhere, i took a long on cable a long on xau/usd, took profit on a short opened on aud/usd around - guess where - the same area highlighted in the first post, the blue line at 0.94397 in the line chart -. watch the m15 to have a clear picture of the reason, and last took some losses always on aud for some small long <-early bird die first.
Hi keyador
no, i've always preferred getting horizontal. Big Grin

Ok, that was bad, shame on me. Joking apart, my analysys is based only on support/demand - resistence/supply area, and how price behaves and act around these areas, areas where historically we saw reaction. By reaction i mean a lot of orders being opened / closed, big money that goes from hand to hand. This is, in my humble opinion, the best way or the more effective way to understand the pro money intention on a chart. Once you got the flow of the money you have just to follow the big sharks once they revealed themself.
You see a "pole" i see momentum [related to a specific timeframe] in one direction. You see a pole i see money in action [assuming a nice pole on an higher time frame]. You see a flag i see price move up/down to an area in order to filter in more order and test the value of an area.
Where this momentum come from, it start from some area of interest ? Where we are on the htf, who is buying/selling long term trader or intraday trader ? When price took off, during a liquid session ? during this momentum we had the breakout of some area of interest ? those area got retested ? on wich timeframe ? how those area react on the retest ? where price is going, where is a reasonable target for the pro money - both intra day and long term investor - where is the next area of interest ? Got the idea ?

So even if i could use sometimes the word flag to simplify my charts or the way i describe some price action, flag, channel, trendline, wedge, they have no space in my thinking.

hope it make sense.

---------
i am on a mobile now, so maybe some chart chart later. to understand the last drop on euro watch the highly time frame [hint: weekly], price has pinned old demand, probably a s**tload of long term buyers were trapped there, i have closed my long on eur - see post nr 9 - just around that level when pa on ltf clearly turned short. Watch even the monthly, we have had an engulf in may followed by what ? a giant drop ? no price stopped at old demand and some shy bull - the pin in june - entered in the fild. will see the next days - next week - how this will develop, if bulls wonna take the lead they will show themself soon for the reason marked in post nr 6. ps : this is just my opinion, keep in mind that NO ONE is right 100%.

-------

as expected we had some nasty liqidity move everywhere, i took a long on cable a long on xau/usd, took profit on a short opened on aud/usd around - guess where - the same area highlighted in the first post, the blue line at 0.94397 in the line chart -. watch the m15 to have a clear picture of the reason, and last took some losses always on aud for some small long <-early bird die first.
Hi keyador
no, i've always preferred getting horizontal. Big Grin

Ok, that was bad, shame on me. Joking apart, my analysys is based only on support/demand - resistence/supply area, and how price behaves and act around these areas, areas where historically we saw reaction. By reaction i mean a lot of orders being opened / closed, big money that goes from hand to hand. This is, in my humble opinion, the best way or the more effective way to understand the pro money intention on a chart. Once you got the flow of the money you have just to follow the big sharks once they revealed themself.
You see a "pole" i see momentum [related to a specific timeframe] in one direction. You see a pole i see money in action [assuming a nice pole on an higher time frame]. You see a flag i see price move up/down to an area in order to filter in more order and test the value of an area.
Where this momentum come from, it start from some area of interest ? Where we are on the htf, who is buying/selling long term trader or intraday trader ? When price took off, during a liquid session ? during this momentum we had the breakout of some area of interest ? those area got retested ? on wich timeframe ? how those area react on the retest ? where price is going, where is a reasonable target for the pro money - both intra day and long term investor - where is the next area of interest ? Got the idea ?

So even if i could use sometimes the word flag to simplify my charts or the way i describe some price action, flag, channel, trendline, wedge, they have no space in my thinking.

hope it make sense.

---------
i am on a mobile now, so maybe some chart chart later. to understand the last drop on euro watch the highly time frame [hint: weekly], price has pinned old demand, probably a s**tload of long term buyers were trapped there, i have closed my long on eur - see post nr 9 - just around that level when pa on ltf clearly turned short. Watch even the monthly, we have had an engulf in may followed by what ? a giant drop ? no price stopped at old demand and some shy bull - the pin in june - entered in the fild. will see the next days - next week - how this will develop, if bulls wonna take the lead they will show themself soon for the reason marked in post nr 6. ps : this is just my opinion, keep in mind that NO ONE is right 100%.

-------

as expected we had some nasty liqidity move everywhere, i took a long on cable a long on xau/usd, took profit on a short opened on aud/usd around - guess where - the same area highlighted in the first post, the blue line at 0.94397 in the line chart -. watch the m15 to have a clear picture of the reason, and last took some losses always on aud for some small long <-early bird die first. definitly NOT the relaxing day i have planned for today.
Hi keyador
no, i've always preferred getting horizontal. Big Grin

Ok, that was bad, shame on me. Joking apart, my analysys is based only on support/demand - resistence/supply area, and how price behaves and act around these areas, areas where historically we saw reaction. By reaction i mean a lot of orders being opened / closed, big money that goes from hand to hand. This is, in my humble opinion, the best way or the more effective way to understand the pro money intention on a chart. Once you got the flow of the money you have just to follow the big sharks once they revealed themself.
You see a "pole" i see momentum [related to a specific timeframe] in one direction. You see a pole i see money in action [assuming a nice pole on an higher time frame]. You see a flag i see price move up/down to an area in order to filter in more order and test the value of an area.
Where this momentum come from, it start from some area of interest ? Where we are on the htf, who is buying/selling long term trader or intraday trader ? When price took off, during a liquid session ? during this momentum we had the breakout of some area of interest ? those area got retested ? on wich timeframe ? how those area react on the retest ? where price is going, where is a reasonable target for the pro money - both intra day and long term investor - where is the next area of interest ? Got the idea ?

So even if i could use sometimes the word flag to simplify my charts or the way i describe some price action, flag, channel, trendline, wedge, they have no space in my thinking.

hope it make sense.

---------
i am on a mobile now, so maybe some chart chart later. to understand the last drop on euro watch the highly time frame [hint: weekly], price has pinned old demand, probably a s**tload of long term buyers were trapped there, i have closed my long on eur - see post nr 9 - just around that level when pa on ltf clearly turned short. Watch even the monthly, we have had an engulf in may followed by what ? a giant drop ? no price stopped at old demand and some shy bull - the pin in june - entered in the fild. will see the next days - next week - how this will develop, if bulls wonna take the lead they will show themself soon for the reason marked in post nr 6. ps : this is just my opinion, keep in mind that NO ONE is right 100%.

-------

as expected we had some nasty liqidity move everywhere, i took a long on cable a long on xau/usd, took profit on a short opened on aud/usd around - guess where - the same area highlighted in the first post, the blue line at 0.94397 in the line chart -. watch the m15 to have a clear picture of the reason, and last took some losses always on aud for some small long <-early bird die first. definitely NOT the relaxing day i have planned for today.

Thank you for your response.

I use support/resistance and supply/demand in my trading too, mostly I use the patterns (flag, wedges..) as additional confirmation.

In this case with the EURUSD, i've attached some charts to show it.

There is a big supply zone which was tested a few times, after the last test it removed a weekly demand zone. I think that it is the same zone that you were talking about in your post (the smaller box). That broken demand zone is now becoming supply and the zone has historical significance.

I did not enter yet, was a lot of news the last days and I try to avoid the big news as much as possible.


Well, I consider myself a newbie so still got a lot to learn. Really like the way you give insight in your thought process behind a trade, its very helpfull.

PS: Tomorrow, i'll post a chart with an example of using patterns as additional confirmation if you dont mind. Just let me know if you dont want any patterns in this thread but only the 'horizontal' zones

Feel free to post all the charts you want, they are more than welcomed, after all we are here to discuss so..and i consider myself a rookie too, i don't pretend to be nothing else. of course if someone will start to post chart with oscillators and MA [garbage] i will probably get an ictus, and my monitor will probably fly down the window killing someone belowe. and we don't want all this drama, right ? at least just don't show me an M5 chart with a SMA 365/200 <--- saw this stuff a couple of time, asked why the hell you are averaging price of 365 or 200 m5 bar, what's the meaning ? still waiting the answer.
pattern are dangerous imho, people that look for the shape of price without understanding how market works, or price itself, does not last long. but that's a complicate subject that requires time, will talk about it in the future.

yes the lower blue box is the demand turned into supply i was talking about. the upper one is supply and every time price test a zone the lower the chance that zone will react next time, but we can't know for sure how many orders are still there or if some new sellers/buyers will come it.
honestly i don't see great opportunity right now on euro, last months there were some small bull signal, but really notingh so exciting, i am courious to see reaction on some lower support, but i will play it conservatively or i will just play better opportunity on another pairs. last one is probably the best choice. probably i have made a mistake showing last days scalps on yuro, you could scalp lower timeframe even when a pair is not behaving greatly - like yuro last months due low volume - but..it requires thousand of hr spent in front of the monitor, and could be very frustating, is not easy; golden rule is that is better waiting clear and easy peasy setup with the guidance of the higher time frame, great trader have great patience <-- i don't.

gbp trade
last chart is a monthly, despite the fact the the daily [today] is showing great buying [nice tail, uh ?], there is still an high chance of a retest

Nice trading, you don't trade with hard stops right? They are not visible.

I try to keep charts as clean as a i can, i'd like you to focus on the structure of the price, and nothing else. even considering that i have the habit to wrote stuff directly on the charts, less stuff, less lines, the better. That's why few of them don't display the stops, i took them off just the time required to press the hotkey for the screenshot.

Even if i hate the idea that my broker will know my stop, i'd like to have hard stop in place to protect my money from unexpected event that could hit the market hard and fast when i am not in front of my screens, earthquake, nuclear accident, terrorism, war, name your favorite disaster. Is not my real stop, is a way to limit the damage if for some reason i am not in condition to close the trade immidiately.

Beside that i have always my risk in check, stops are very well clear in my mind and i don't allow price to go belowe/above my "mental" stop. I am not in position to teach I truly belive that there is no space for "hope" in trading; if some trade were to go bad, or is going bad, close it, if you don't like price action or you don't understand it, close it, never, ever put yourself in the condition to have to "hope" that price will come back to you, the only thing you will get will be a margin call.

Where to put a stop depend on other factor, how deep are your poket, how much risk and heat you are willing to take. Usually if i am taking a "swing", even a small one, i put my stop, at least my mental stop, belowe, above the next s/r once/if is broken. By above/belowe i don't mean just 1-2 tick above/belowe, but where they are safe. If you don't like pullback- becouse price "pullback" a lot,is how smart money filter or add more order - just take profit and maybe wait for the next opportunity.

------------
is friday,the sun, football, indipendance day, there were a lot of good reason to keep yourself away from trading today. Sometimes, when there are very few traders at the desks, some big shark try to run all the stop of the silly money that are in the market, i am sure you have seen those spike around new year's holidays, is one of the way how m.maker get their Christmas bonus..well today even those kind of nasty speculator are in vacation.

This is an example how to use the flag pattern as confirmation.
I've attached the 1 hour chart GBPUSD.

We are looking for mostly longs because the pair just made a new high.
If we see a flag in a uptrend than we are looking for a break to the upside not to the downside.
So we are looking for longs at this point, look left and identify potential reversal zones.

The blue rectangle is a zone where there was previous congestion. The price rallied out of the zone with a big bullish candle. So when we revisit this zone there might be still buyers left. This could be our possible entry 1#. There was another possible entry when the price broke out of the flag pattern it came to retest the breakout area which was also the S/R flip zone and BRN.

I did not trade this one unfortunately, just kinda showing my thought process. And what I really like about this type of trades is the high R:R ratio.


I did enter short on EURUSD, at 1.3606. Price broke out of the flag I posted earlier, just a small position wasn't really sure about it..

Indeed a very nice trade !! i like the minus SR [the red one in your and mine chart] if you are able to spot the cluster of order around that kind area and how price react to the old one and the newly formed one on a live session..well, that's the best edge you could ask for. The first entry is an awesome trade.

I just don't see what that trendline could add to your thinking - erase the trendline and the price structure is even more clear. Drawing a trendline is too subjective for my tastes and i have found that doesen't work, and doesen't cope with the way professional money and market makers create and watch the market plus i like very clean chart of course this is just my humble opinion.

Just an addition, i like the thinking around the red SR, i watch price in the same way, but the demand you marked with the blue rectangle, look where it comes from, zoom out and watch the bigger picture, and look even the history of that area, that's was THE trade imho, despite the fact that LO was closed that was the trade i was looking for [unfortunately i missed that beauty], your first entry was made by london guys that were looking for their fills [on the m1 you can see the buyers filling their order clearly], a very classical setup [missed that too, damn].
Meanwhile i longed cable this afternoon again - the blue rectangle - notingh so exciting atm, we could see a retest of the lower support, so i just took partial profit, put at be and i'll go to sleep...
longed eur too, at the levels marked on the charts shown on the previous post - no short for me atm -, and aud [no energy for mark a chart now sorry], already out of both, market was illiquid and "small" today like it was in recent months.