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AUD/USD

  • #81,861
  • Jul 3, 2014 3:43am Jul 3, 2014 3:43am
Quoting Matts Micro
I am watching a potential EA trend change. Today is too crazy for me to place any medium-long term trades. I may enter if/when a pullback to the TL. {image}
I don't know yet Matt, could also be a "fake out". It will depend on Mario's blabla. Then the question is, on which time frame do you think this potential trend change might happen? For weeks and months I find it hard to see any full turn. Especially with current Euro rates, swap rates etc. Maybe I am missing something?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #81,862
  • Jul 3, 2014 3:52am Jul 3, 2014 3:52am
Quoting kampred
{quote} i like to challenge bigboys out there lol
LOL such warrior spirit
  • #81,863
  • Jul 3, 2014 4:21am Jul 3, 2014 4:21am
This is such a ridiculous amount of news crammed in at once… we're going to see fireworks.
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  • #81,864
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:21am Jul 3, 2014 5:21am
Quoting Ck87
This is such a ridiculous amount of news crammed in at once… we're going to see fireworks. {image}

We sure are. Hate to close my shorts. With this amount of data tho....
  • #81,865
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:32am Jul 3, 2014 5:32am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I don't know yet Matt, could also be a "fake out". It will depend on Mario's blabla. Then the question is, on which time frame do you think this potential trend change might happen? For weeks and months I find it hard to see any full turn. Especially with current Euro rates, swap rates etc. Maybe I am missing something?
Your right about it possibly being a fakeout and todays news will probably be a defining moment for all markets and trends imo. In theory if yesterdays ADP results sets the mood then it will probably send both the EU and AU down, which will be the stronger? . The tf is relative to the chart, so it would be a daily/weekly expectancy.

If the AU hits a new low today then there is a chance for a BO of a daily rising TL from the 2014 low that could bring Gov. Stevens indications of a lower currency into effect.

As far as the EU goes I haven't being following strongly lately but technically there is an opportunity for 1.37 to be broken and that for me would be confirmation of a weekly/monthly falling TL BO and possible new highs on the way.

So many questions remain unanswered though before news being released soon.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,866
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:34am Jul 3, 2014 5:34am
Yes plenty of news all prep'd for those fat wall streeters for there July the 4th parties. Some will be the givers and some will be the takers .
  • #81,867
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:49am Jul 3, 2014 5:49am
Quoting kampred
{quote} i just long again AUD/USD 100 lots with my demo contest account
Ah I see. I have thought about trying one of those myself for fun.

GL
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,868
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:52am Jul 3, 2014 5:52am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
For now aud seems to find a temporary support around 9360. In my opinion, regardless of what the outcome of the news may be, as long as the as 9412 weekly resistance remain intact, aud will still be on bearish mode. In this case i would like to see it 0.9340 and if broken..then 0.93 even.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #81,869
  • Jul 3, 2014 6:12am Jul 3, 2014 6:12am
we're always advised to close limit our positions during news, but i dont mind risking 20 pips for a 100+ pips move later . So it will be either i'm wrong and lost 20 pips or vice versa
  • #81,870
  • Jul 3, 2014 6:20am Jul 3, 2014 6:20am
Am I the only bullish on AUD in the whole forum??
should be something wrong with me... I am going to get my head checked.
As Above, So Below
  • #81,871
  • Jul 3, 2014 6:28am Jul 3, 2014 6:28am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Quoting tashkent
Am I the only bullish on AUD in the whole forum?? should be something wrong with me... I am going to get my head checked.
Nobody can know for sure when and where the mkt will be heading next. Within a day...bulls and bears can still make some profits..it depends on the timeframe one is trading..and also how agile and flexible a trader is and at what point he knows when he is wrong.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #81,872
  • Jul 3, 2014 6:28am Jul 3, 2014 6:28am
Quoting tashkent
Am I the only bullish on AUD in the whole forum?? should be something wrong with me... I am going to get my head checked.
I am bullish until a confirmed break of todays LL is broken. If it heads up from here it is a good sign for confirmation of the break of my daily TL on the top side.

I am watching Gold too atm, if it gets any lower too it maybe making a trend change.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,873
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:02am Jul 3, 2014 7:02am
Obviously Bearish.
TP1:92400
  • #81,874
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:08am Jul 3, 2014 7:08am
Quoting tashkent
Am I the only bullish on AUD in the whole forum?? should be something wrong with me... I am going to get my head checked.
I have to admit that I thought you were crazy as I was heading to bed last night with a flat account.

LIVE accounts have small volume longs that would still yield about 2%.

DEMO - I'm all in and over leveraged with 150 lots LONG with 9500 t/p on 'em...

...this'll be a perfectly fine loss for me on live while magic or tragic on the 5 mil demo
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #81,875
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:12am Jul 3, 2014 7:12am
Quoting EDG
{quote} Nobody can know for sure when and where the mkt will be heading next. Within a day...bulls and bears can still make some profits..it depends on the timeframe one is trading..and also how agile and flexible a trader is and at what point he knows when he is wrong.
I trade daily chart and all I am hearing here could be just a noise. However, if today proves me wrong, I will seriously start thinking about changing my sentiment on AUD.
As Above, So Below
  • #81,876
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:20am Jul 3, 2014 7:20am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} I trade daily chart and all I am hearing here could be just a noise. However, if today proves me wrong, I will seriously start thinking about changing my sentiment on AUD.
IMO - you're sensing something related to BIG MONEY and what it intends to do. Not anything technical. however, the technical does support the theory VERY well with just a little uncommon digging. My opinion is that the 4Hr chart is where this is "hidden in plain sight" for those willing to see.

Lets be real: BIG MONEY wants the AU lower. Central banker said so pretty clearly... "and not just a few cents" was a paraphrased portion of the statement....I'm happy to be corrected... CENTRAL BANKER. the ultimate mover of this market from what I understand. The ultimate gum flap artist who believes higher prices is a core value of a strong economy....everybody whining about low Iron Ore and kangaroo dung lb. rates is following right along with him yet making completely opposite trading decisions!!

BIG MONEY needs to line up it's losers to accomplish this (lower AUD). It will most likely do that with a healthy spike up taking out current bears to get higher sell prices.

...tell me it's (BIG MONEY) never done this and I'll do all I can to make that $5 million demo real if you can show me proof this has never happened in this market.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #81,877
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:21am Jul 3, 2014 7:21am
not saying it will go up or down.... sitting within 3 possible viable demand zones...this should be interesting...
i would be more excited about the middle and lower boxes, ...
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  • #81,878
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:22am Jul 3, 2014 7:22am
Quoting nealpek
not saying it will go up or down.... sitting within 3 possible viable demand zones...this should be interesting... {image}
You've got me thinking BIG MONEY in a completely new way neal. Thanks. Ken A too.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #81,879
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:26am Jul 3, 2014 7:26am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} You've got me thinking BIG MONEY in a completely new way neal. Thanks. Ken A too.
its only good if puts money in the bank, lol
  • #81,880
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:32am Jul 3, 2014 7:32am
this is why i don't trade the news...
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