Forex Volatility is Dead? | Forex Factory

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Forex Volatility is Dead?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 2, 2014 6:52am Jul 2, 2014 6:52am
I had a lengthy hiatus from trading and is it just me or are the currency markets really sluggish ? If anybody can elucidate this phenomenon for me or point me to an article on this i'd be really grateful, thanks.
  • #2
  • Jul 2, 2014 7:13am Jul 2, 2014 7:13am
It's not dead, just at record lows, so it's not you.

If you google for market volatility of VIX index you will find plenty of charts or articles talking about it.

BR/
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #3
  • Jul 2, 2014 7:22am Jul 2, 2014 7:22am
Quoting broketrader
It's not dead, just at record lows, so it's not you. If you google for market volatility of VIX index you will find plenty of charts or articles talking about it. BR/
thank you, will do .
  • #4
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:08am Jul 2, 2014 8:08am
Bring it on economic crisis
  • #5
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:26am Jul 2, 2014 8:26am
The libor and fx manipulation scandals have put traders in the spotlight. Some of the big boys have fired traders and some simply dare not really move. Oh, plus world cup fever. Ha..
  • #6
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:39am Jul 2, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Bullseye Jem
The libor and fx manipulation scandals have put traders in the spotlight. Some of the big boys have fired traders and some simply dare not really move. Oh, plus world cup fever. Ha..
*gasp* theres price manipulation in fx? :0. You mean the random looking spikes that seem to always purposely go beyond previous price bounces or touches (levels) are possibly done on purpose? :0
  • #7
  • Jul 2, 2014 1:07pm Jul 2, 2014 1:07pm
Old illusion tricks are not working any more..... ie in terms of economics, markets are getting more efficient.
Currently more new tricks are being devised , so more suckers can get attracted to this game like moth in the flame.
Just wait patiently at the table until next batch arrives.
  • #8
  • Jul 2, 2014 9:09pm Jul 2, 2014 9:09pm
it is coming sooon..read the charts...get ready!
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #9
  • Jul 2, 2014 9:10pm Jul 2, 2014 9:10pm
It's true that after periods of time with no volatility it is only inevitable that high volatility follows. And yes the lack of volatility in the forex market has been a complete nightmare, I would have been way better off sticking with stocks during this period. Hopefully some huge volatile trends will be coming soon and I'll make the best of it
  • #10
  • Jul 3, 2014 1:59am Jul 3, 2014 1:59am
Quoting justin7
Bring it on economic crisis
It is unbelievable what kids almost did to the world economy by trading lunch money. Good regulators caught up with that before the total chaos ensued.
  • #11
  • Jul 3, 2014 2:28am Jul 3, 2014 2:28am
Low volatility also push people to use more leverage, When things change and the moves get more extended accounts get wiped out. Beware!
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #12
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:06am Jul 3, 2014 7:06am
I really hope this season ends soon, even the big boys of the market are crying.........
  • #13
  • Jul 5, 2014 12:09pm Jul 5, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting lcy723
I had a lengthy hiatus from trading and is it just me or are the currency markets really sluggish ? If anybody can elucidate this phenomenon for me or point me to an article on this i'd be really grateful, thanks.
Implied volatilty is extremely low, and as low as I can remember.

This is a model for Implieds that I built. It contains VIX/MOVE/1M EUR and JPY ATM vols

That is to say, Expected volatility is lowest as per my chart across interest rates / equity / FX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Implied vol comp.png Size: 46 KB
  • #14
  • Jul 5, 2014 12:12pm Jul 5, 2014 12:12pm
Furthermore, Realized vol (1m EUR close-close) is lowest on record. well below 1sd from the mean (which is 9!)... so we are under 1/2 the normal volatility that we've seen over the past 30+ years
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: real vol 1meur.png Size: 56 KB
  • #15
  • Jul 6, 2014 4:08pm Jul 6, 2014 4:08pm
FX volume really low 2014 compared to 2013.
Attached Image
  • #16
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:19am Jul 7, 2014 7:19am
Regulation has played a key part in creating this current market, and I've had to adapt my strategies accordingly.......keep the faith and once the turnaround comes I expect conditions to change rapidly..
  • #17
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:43am Jul 7, 2014 7:43am
I expect things to change at end of summer. It seems that only news is moving the market right now.
  • #18
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:54am Jul 7, 2014 7:54am
Looks like you are getting back in at a great time! Good news is when you have such periods of contracted range trade and super low vol as we have seen, it is a red flag warning for a major surge in vol ahead. Welcome back!

Quoting lcy723
I had a lengthy hiatus from trading and is it just me or are the currency markets really sluggish ? If anybody can elucidate this phenomenon for me or point me to an article on this i'd be really grateful, thanks.
  • #19
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:23am Jul 30, 2014 4:23am
I'm also waiting for more volatility, currently moving from eur/usd to eur/cad, very nive moves of the eur/cad and nice volatility but I would like to trade huge volatility soon, waiting for it, many days we see eur/usd with 25 pips ranges even with news thats no tradable to me
  • #20
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:53am Jul 30, 2014 4:53am
I'm looking forward to the markets becoming volatile again.
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