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  • #641
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:06am Jul 2, 2014 2:06am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} As you say just stick to system. I know you hate to say anything not 1 min here but D had one of those over size closes, often the last gasp in a trend. If we were going properly lower should have been easy for Asian session to move. So if we don't follow through lower today should be big move up, time will tell but heck on 1 min theres a lot of water to go under the bridge. At the moment I have CM showing aud weakest but eur middle of the pack. CCI's nowhere, ma's nowhere no trade at the moment. Of course there could be coming up. Just...
Yep agreed but my whole thinking behind this strategy is based around FXCM's report which concluded "Successful Traders have bigger winners than losers".

Therefore I have set myself the goal to find big moves with very small entry risk. So I have to think , when is the highest probability situations when we can expect a higher return with low risk??That means finding that last turn down with strong trending daily pairs with entries on 1 min charts in direction of that daily trend.

Now don't forget price can only go up or down so if we keep taking turns on the 1 min in the direction of the daily trend we gotta catch bigger moves, haven't we???
But we can't just keep taking 1 min turns all day far too risky!!So the question is, what does a good turn on our 1 min look like???

Hey presto our 15 min CCI turn!!! Just keep taking those 15 min CCI turns with our system on strong trending daily pairs and surely we will hit our goal of "Bigger winners than our losers"

I'd say a lot bigger winners than our losers.

Sorry if I'm driving you insane Mr V. but I'm just one of life's thinkers, can't help myself, constantly thinking of new ideas and how I can improve things. not happy unless I'm thinking of some new idea or way of doing something.Just the way I was made I guess???

By the way this EURAUD is shaping up well for a sell this morning a good break and retest of 1.4450 level would be a nice start.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #642
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:42am Jul 2, 2014 2:42am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Yep agreed but my whole thinking behind this strategy is based around FXCM's report which concluded "Successful Traders have bigger winners than losers". Therefore I have set myself the goal to find big moves with very small entry risk. So I have to think , when is the highest probability situations when we can expect a higher return with low risk??That means finding that last turn down with strong trending daily pairs with entries on 1 min charts in direction of that daily trend. Now don't forget price can only go up or down so if we keep...
Yes you need bigger winners than losers and with the trades we are going for bigger winning % also. But we seem to have it. Catching the turns is another skill set and another system entirely (in many cases). What was someone elses comment I posted a while back, catching turns is a mugs game and there are easier ways to make money (apologies to guys like Islander that have made it work).

I might or might not have relayed the story of one of the most successful sales guys I ever met. A multi-millionaire from commission. He kept a record of all sales and roughly one sale on every page was a biggie. That means of course there were 20 odd average nothing to write home about sales. He just plugged away doing his thing (which was hard work, getting the small things right etc etc) and every so often something big fell in his lap. Trading is the same.

Forex is not about getting everything its about getting a method that works for you, that gives you an edge. The get everything does not exist, well not within one method.

Get one thing, one method right, working well day after day after day after day after day ............................................ Do it until its boring.

Then if you like try for something else, if you feel the need.
  • #643
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:02am Jul 2, 2014 3:02am
Nice trade here but too busy posting as usual.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #644
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:09am Jul 2, 2014 3:09am
Looking good
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #645
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:19am Jul 2, 2014 3:19am
Here's one I took earlier not from my top trenders but from my "beliefs" at least its a setup so thats ok but its not been in TT all morning so shouldn't be trading it but convinced myself its going down today.

Am I crazy?????
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #646
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:32am Jul 2, 2014 3:32am
I'm glad to say someone else is selling this hard as it just jumped down several times off of the 100sma. One tick in particular shot down 7 pips!!Hopefully some massive bank is selling today, hope so. Good old Fred does love his 100sma entry.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #647
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:36am Jul 2, 2014 3:36am
Good old Fred , thanks mate!!
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #648
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:43am Jul 2, 2014 3:43am
Took half off at 8 pips and moved stop to 7 so worst case a break even trade but hopefully will run a bit and maybe I'll load if a set up presents itself and do the same thing again. Rinse and repeat as pres78 says.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #649
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:54am Jul 2, 2014 3:54am
hi Clive, great method with tremendous potential!
thank you!

a quick question, on your charts you get an alert stating "set up alert sent", may I know which indicator you use for the alert?
Thank you, appreciate it.
  • #650
  • Jul 2, 2014 4:29am Jul 2, 2014 4:29am
and also, must the pullback touch 100 sma. or is the cci touching 100 enough?

thank you!
  • #651
  • Jul 2, 2014 4:45am Jul 2, 2014 4:45am
GBP was messy with high impact news but EURAUD, EURNZD and EURJPY all gave nice system trades. EURAUD was a bit messier than the other two which printed perfect clean down moves.

5 pip stops, 25+ pip moves 5:1+ easy... how much more than that do we need across one or two trades (3-4 on good days), day in and day out?

No catching of falling knives required.

Question for you Clive at what point on your zoomed out chart would you know the 15min CCI changed trend? The zero cross? The move above -100 or the move above +100? Anything other than +100 and I can show you a chart that a move above 0 reverses back into previous trend or just moves sideways ranging for every chart where you show me the move above 0 was enough.

I really don't know what you are looking for. What does you trade plan require for min return on risk? 10:1, 20:1? Risking 10% per trade and only wanting grand-slams?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #652
  • Jul 2, 2014 4:57am Jul 2, 2014 4:57am
Quoting pres78
GBP was messy with high impact news but EURAUD, EURNZD and EURJPY all gave nice system trades. EURAUD was a bit messier than the other two which printed perfect clean down moves. 5 pip stops, 25+ pip moves 5:1+ easy... how much more than that do we need across one or two trades (3-4 on good days), day in and day out? No catching of falling knives required. Question for you Clive at what point on your zoomed out chart would you know the 15min CCI changed trend? The zero cross? The move above -100 or the move above +100? Anything other than +100 and...
Hi Pres78I hear you loud and clear,

don't worry mostly just thinking aloud so you guys know what I'm thinking.

By the way any of those above signals worked but I know what you're saying stick to the +100 for buys and -100 for sells and yep its sinking in slowly but will say on any signal I would look to price action to confirm eg for a turn down last HL must be clearly taken out and then a LH printed before I would take any reversal +100/-100, zero cross etc.

By the way really like your paper break even move works very well doesn't it??
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #653
  • Edited 6:51am Jul 2, 2014 5:54am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting saticdoor86
hi Clive, great method with tremendous potential! thank you! a quick question, on your charts you get an alert stating "set up alert sent", may I know which indicator you use for the alert? Thank you, appreciate it.
Hi Saticdoor86

To answer your question about the 100sma , no it doesn't have to be a touch trade off of the 100sma but it is one of our key levels to look out for as price regularly reacts to it. Also I like taking entries as close as possible to the 100sma as these entries work well, be careful if price is stretched too far away from 100sma. (basically overbought/sold situation).

Yes I would say best to stick to +/-100 level trades although Mr V. talks about taking pullbacks that have moved over 200 points maybe from -150 back to +50 for example. I like the over 100 levels as a minimium and over 200 signals are even better as cci then over bought or sold in a strong trend the other way. Check out the over 200 signals they work quite reliably as long as a strong trend is in the other direction but just watch out it doesn't violate our ABCD rule of not pulling back past our "A" level.

As for the trade alerts , thats my CCI Email Alert Indicator. It lets me know when the 100 levels have been breached and when they are recrossed. It will either email me, put a pop up on the screen or make a sound or even all three its up to you. You can choose.

Ok let me tell you exactly what it does. Lets say you set it to send you a buy entry on GBPUSD and you set the level for -100 on a 5 min chart with a 14 period then it will do nothing until the CCI on a 5 min chart goes over -100 level (it doesn't have to be on the 5 min chart it can be on any timeframe) , then it waits for the CCI momentum to start falling back , say it reaches a max move of -210 then the next candle the CCI drops back to -190 it will send you a Set Up Alert which will say "Buy set up GBPUSD 5min" , which is basically telling you to have a look at the chart in question a buy signal is imminent . If the CCI then crosses above the -100 level it will send you a Trade Alert saying "Buy Now GBPUSD 5 min" alert meaning the signal you set it for has now happened.

Have attached Indy below just store it in the Indicators file.You can set the levels you want to watch as you see fit.

Hope that helps any more questions just fire away.

EDIT: By the way if you want to get buy and sell signals at the same time just put it on chart twice, one set to buy and one set to sell.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #Clives CCI Email Alert Indicator v3.ex4   6 KB | 417 downloads
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #654
  • Edited 6:58am Jul 2, 2014 6:36am | Edited 6:58am
Well an interesting morning, made about 16% on my demo which is nice but should of been so much better if I hadn't of thought I know what the markets going to do!!!

I did a pre LO analysis and decided I wanted to look for a EURAUD short, made perfect sense to me, but it didn't really take of and was a bit messy like pres78 said.

However if I had just followed my own system and looked at the top 4 trenders only I would of made far more pips look at the charts below. Oh and guess what??? EurAUD never appeared in my TT top 4!!

When oh when am I gonna learn that I don,t know what the market is going to do but my TT tells me what is actually moving not what I think is actually moving or going to move!!! Even if I'm right with my analysis why don't I wait for EURAUD to pop into my top 4. If it ain't there it ain't trending and if it aint trending I'm not trading it!!! Simple as that!!!

Just gotta pay attention to it and go from there, always when a pair is in top Trender its 15 min CCI is over or under 100 levels, just have to watch out they haven't gone too far already, but one thing I know for sure is that all those big moves that happen always , always start in my TT top 4 1 min and then pop into my 5 min top trenders.

Oh well lets see if I can't do a little better next time.

See you all later.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #655
  • Jul 2, 2014 6:52am Jul 2, 2014 6:52am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Saticdoor86 To answer your question about the 100sma , no it doesn't have to be a touch trade off of the 100sma but it is one of our key levels to look out for as price regularly reacts to it. Also I like taking entries as close as possible to the 100sma as these entries work well, be careful if price is stretched too far away from 100sma. (basically overbought/sold situation). Yes I would say best to stick to +/-100 level trades although Mr V. talks about taking pullbacks that have moved over 200 points maybe from -150 back to +50 for...
Have just edited this post as had some of the terms wrong now correct so please have another read of it if you intend to use email alerter.

Cheers Clive.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #656
  • Jul 2, 2014 6:56am Jul 2, 2014 6:56am
Quoting clivepackham
Well an interesting morning, made about 16% on my demo which is nice but should of been so much better if I hadn't of thought I know what the markets going to do!!! I did a pre LO analysis and decided I wanted to look for a EURAUD short, made perfect sense to me, but it didn't really take of and was a bit messy like pres78 said. However if I had just followed my own system and looked at the top 4 trenders only I would of made far more pips look at the charts below. Oh and guess what??? EurAUD never appeared in my TT top 4!! When oh when am I gonna...
I did want to kick your butt this morning and point out euraud was a none system trade but my foot is starting to hurt!!!

A none system trade that wins despite the crazy logic of it will NOT help you at all in developing a repeatable system. The I can trade anythingitis (just as catching just as deadly) will apply and that's inevitably where things go wrong. Hopefully your +16% (and should have been more) for a morning is sending off alarm bells all over what you can do when you follow your trade rules!!!

If it doesn't comply with trade rules its no trade FULL STOP.
  • #657
  • Jul 2, 2014 6:58am Jul 2, 2014 6:58am
Quoting clivepackham
Well an interesting morning, made about 16% on my demo which is nice but should of been so much better if I hadn't of thought I know what the markets going to do!!!
OK let's consider this... 16% on a bad day when you broke some rules but followed others. 16% * 5 Days = 80% in one week or 3200% over 40 weeks. Why 40 weeks well each year has 52 and there are bank holidays when we should not be trading, X-mas and New Years + we need a good 10 or so weeks vacation every year don't we?

Should have, could have, would have need not be in our trading vocabulary as it certainly isn't in our trading plans. Unless your trading plans says to stop after a certain pip (or $ gain / loss) then our days will vary. We will have great days, so-so days and bad days. Don't get caught up with might have or could have been. Focus on the day based on four factors;

  1. Net profit / loss (very important to any business)
  2. What did I do right
  3. What did I did wrong
  4. What can I do better

As I showed in my post yesterday after a loss I wrote into my trading journal that very note to myself which I read again today before I looked at a single chart.




Quoting clivepackham
I did a pre LO analysis and decided I wanted to look for a EURAUD short
That is great and should be part of your trading plan.

What in your plan said you should look to short EURAUD after your pre LO analysis? Was there a trade there or did you just want to short it because you thought it should go down?

Quoting clivepackham
However if I had just followed my own system and looked at the top 4 trenders only I would of made far more pips look at the charts below. Oh and guess what??? EurAUD never appeared in my TT top 4!!
Well I guess that answered my last question ! Never trade what you think, trade what the markets and your indicators are telling you. You and Ted have built some tools which you have made part of your trading so for goodness sakes man use the darn things!

Quoting clivepackham
When oh when am I gonna learn that I don't know what the market is going to do
I think it's sinking in...

Hallelujah!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #658
  • Jul 2, 2014 6:58am Jul 2, 2014 6:58am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I did want to kick your butt this morning and point out euraud was a none system trade but my foot is starting to hurt!!! A none system trade that wins despite the crazy logic of it will NOT help you at all in developing a repeatable system. The I can trade anythingitis (just as catching just as deadly) will apply and that's inevitably where things go wrong. Hopefully your +16% (and should have been more) for a morning is sending off alarm bells all over what you can do when you follow your trade rules!!! If it doesn't comply with trade...
Darn forgot to say very well done on the mornings system trades. Nice.

I think we are pretty much there on system. Sorry that top8 indi and my computer don't like each other, I'll still be referencing the CM which this morning did not like euraud either way.
  • #659
  • Jul 2, 2014 7:05am Jul 2, 2014 7:05am
Here we go again this time New York and heres the current TT top 4, take your pick.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #660
  • Jul 2, 2014 7:13am Jul 2, 2014 7:13am
Hmmm not too sure about any of these seem to be counter todays trend to me, would prefer them all the other way if I'm honest
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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