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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,441
  • Jun 30, 2014 7:29pm Jun 30, 2014 7:29pm
https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/
Diary Auction 1st July
Effects NZ dollar
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,442
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:08pm Jul 1, 2014 8:08pm
I have been playing around some ideas.
To place myself on right side of order flow.
34EMA Raghee Horner's wave always appealed to me.Its the bases for lot of systems.
I also love my BB system which is modified Kathy Lien system.
I like to incorporate both in one robust system.Still playing around but in basic concept you want to be trading above long 34EMA on H1, 4h ,daily All these TF must agree for long and below for short.
BB system is great identifying Turning points.Price going RSI 30 up trading UP and going with Wave until PA reaches exhaustion levels on dev 3

Indicators
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ADR_v2.ex4   11 KB | 371 downloads
File Type: ex4 FFCal Headlines.ex4   36 KB | 285 downloads
File Type: ex4 Fibo_Independence E.ex4   15 KB | 326 downloads
File Type: mq4 Fibo_Independence E.mq4   12 KB | 295 downloads
File Type: ex4 Fibo_Independence.ex4   18 KB | 294 downloads
File Type: mq4 Fibo_Independence.mq4   13 KB | 323 downloads
File Type: ex4 Magnified Market Price.ex4   3 KB | 302 downloads
File Type: ex4 BB ribbon filled 2 color.ex4   9 KB | 328 downloads
File Type: mq4 BB ribbon filled 2 color.mq4   3 KB | 365 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,443
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:17pm Jul 1, 2014 8:17pm
How it looks
Thread here on Raghee system
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=492080
After you listen Raghee webinars and also other traders you do get a solid understanding that discretion is always used.
No system is bullet prove.Much of any success is up to you.
Have fun
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.daily.png Size: 50 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl bbwave.tpl   15 KB | 311 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,444
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:19pm Jul 1, 2014 8:19pm
Quoting Davit
I have been playing around some ideas. To place myself on right side of order flow. 34EMA Raghee Horner's wave always appealed to me.Its the bases for lot of systems. I also love my BB system which is modified Kathy Lien system. I like to incorporate both in one robust system.Still playing around but in basic concept you want to be trading above long 34EMA on H1, 4h ,daily All these TF must agree for long and below for short. BB system is great identifying Turning points.Price going RSI 30 up trading UP and going with Wave until PA reaches exhaustion...
I've been looking @ a similar swing system with no other indis though:-)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,445
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:47pm Jul 1, 2014 8:47pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I've been looking @ a similar swing system with no other indis though:-) {image} {image} {image}
That's good.
My idea is to utilize both trending and range situations.
Wave is good identifying trends and BB identifying exhaustion levels on swings.

Short CAD/JPY
At 9550
2x
Divergence showing as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,446
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:51pm Jul 1, 2014 8:51pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I've been looking @ a similar swing system with no other indis though:-) {image} {image} {image}
If you overlay my template over GU you'll see that trend is at "correction" level even though its in strong up trend.
What you don't want to do is buy at those BB 3rd deviation levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 51 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,447
  • Edited 9:10pm Jul 1, 2014 8:59pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's good. My idea is to utilize both trending and range situations. Wave is good identifying trends and BB identifying exhaustion levels on swings. Short CAD/JPY At 9550 2x Divergence showing as well {image}
I would use the 34 bands a bit differently. In the short you just took, aren't you defeating the purpose of the 34 trend?
Maybe go to H4 chart & buy when price @ lower BBs ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,448
  • Jul 1, 2014 9:07pm Jul 1, 2014 9:07pm
GU example of how I might use it looking @ H4 chart. Daily @ post #1444.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,449
  • Jul 1, 2014 9:19pm Jul 1, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I would use the 34 bands a bit differently. In the short you just took, aren't you defeating the purpose of the 34 trend? Maybe go to H4 chart & buy when price @ lower BBs ? {image}
True what you are saying but like I said earlier I trade Counter and with trend.
I just need to focus more with trend
Its 2 system in 1
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,450
  • Jul 1, 2014 9:23pm Jul 1, 2014 9:23pm
Started July with lots of losers
Trimmed some shorts from GU and Closed AU shorts at 9482 (maybe prematurely there.)
-480pips
Got to take good with the bad.I am ok with losses.Its important how I close the month and Quarter.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,451
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:08pm Jul 1, 2014 10:08pm
Quoting srt
GU example of how I might use it looking @ H4 chart. Daily @ post #1444. {image}
what is the name of this indi SRT , would u like to share it . looks great
  • #1,452
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:12pm Jul 1, 2014 10:12pm
Quoting Davit
Started July with lots of losers Trimmed some shorts from GU and Closed AU shorts at 9482 (maybe prematurely there.) -480pips Got to take good with the bad.I am ok with losses.Its important how I close the month and Quarter.
absolutely true, what mostly matter is what % u earn or lose at the end of month. if returns in green at the end of month than indi is good. Davit , ur indi is extra ordinary, i am also using your indi , its very helpful
thanx
  • #1,453
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:24pm Jul 1, 2014 10:24pm
Quoting Davit
Started July with lots of losers Trimmed some shorts from GU and Closed AU shorts at 9482 (maybe prematurely there.) -480pips Got to take good with the bad.I am ok with losses.Its important how I close the month and Quarter.
thats a wise thing to do my friend. even i cut losers. i think 100 pips on GU and GBP/JPY. I still have 2 pending. aussie maybe premature. but i suggest you look at the kiwi. the entire picture is clear there. there is no uncertainty at all in that pair. dairy prices are falling, rbnz close to tightening ( might hike 2 more times and then done), trade balance is getting worse, commodity prices are falling
  • #1,454
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:27pm Jul 1, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} absolutely true, what mostly matter is what % u earn or lose at the end of month. if returns in green at the end of month than indi is good. Davit , ur indi is extra ordinary, i am also using your indi , its very helpful thanx
To be honest low US GDP totally screwed my plans.Did not expect that.
I am aware that I had a hot running months 6 in a row so expecting some hurdles.
My equity last 6months
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,455
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:32pm Jul 1, 2014 10:32pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} thats a wise thing to do my friend. even i cut losers. i think 100 pips on GU and GBP/JPY. I still have 2 pending. aussie maybe premature. but i suggest you look at the kiwi. the entire picture is clear there. there is no uncertainty at all in that pair. dairy prices are falling, rbnz close to tightening ( might hike 2 more times and then done), trade balance is getting worse, commodity prices are falling
Hi G
I have largest positions on NU
Need at minimum 8680 to be profitable.July 23rd another interest hike expected.These guys have done so far what they announced.
Moronic aspect is their business confidence and dairy prices are falling and yet they keep raising rates.
Banks are happy but average NZ resident is gonna bleed badly.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,456
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:36pm Jul 1, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi G I have largest positions on NU Need at minimum 8680 to be profitable.July 23rd another interest hike expected.These guys have done so far what they announced. Moronic aspect is their business confidence and dairy prices are falling and yet they keep raising rates. Banks are happy but average NZ resident is gonna bleed badly. Regards
I see that price coming today itself. I think it has failed at the resistance atleast 3 times now since the trade balance data came. business confidence hammered it by 40 pips. so it reacts to bad data. not like the usd. also if they are buying aussie, gbp, cad, chf they have to sell something. this is where I think kiwi becomes interesting. I am looking for a close below 8700 today. I think this thread is better than other threads. atleast like minded people here. I suggest you close remaining or some of the positions on gbp as well. it has given me sleepless nights since the past 2 weeks
  • #1,457
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:44pm Jul 1, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I see that price coming today itself. I think it has failed at the resistance atleast 3 times now since the trade balance data came. business confidence hammered it by 40 pips. so it reacts to bad data. not like the usd. also if they are buying aussie, gbp, cad, chf they have to sell something. this is where I think kiwi becomes interesting. I am looking for a close below 8700 today. I think this thread is better than other threads. atleast like minded people here. I suggest you close remaining or some of the positions on gbp as well. it...
GU is very correlated with NU
If you think NU will drop that also means GU as well.
GU is over bought in extreme.I think we are looking 150-250pips correction.
Holding to shorts on GU.I just lighted the load a little.
Regards

.87 correlation

http://www.investing.com/forex-tools...ion-calculator
Good site on correlations
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,458
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:01pm Jul 1, 2014 11:01pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} GU is very correlated with NU If you think NU will drop that also means GU as well. GU is over bought in extreme.I think we are looking 150-250pips correction. Holding to shorts on GU.I just lighted the load a little. Regards .87 correlation http://www.investing.com/forex-tools...ion-calculator Good site on correlations
davit talk in the market is about unwinding of QE. from what I heard from my trader friend is that shorts from 5500 to 6300 are all unwound. some shorts till 6600 are unwound but there are still shorts from 6800 to 7000 which can be taken out in the next move. although it corrects these shorts will start booking some losses and it may rebound
  • #1,459
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:36pm Jul 1, 2014 11:36pm
Watching G/CHF and all Sterling pairs for exhaustion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.daily.png Size: 43 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,460
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:00am Jul 2, 2014 2:00am
Quoting Davit
{quote} To be honest low US GDP totally screwed my plans.Did not expect that. I am aware that I had a hot running months 6 in a row so expecting some hurdles. My equity last 6months {image}
yeah it was surprised everyone but NFP will help u to overcome that as it is expected once again 210k according bloomberg servay. above 200 k continuous means US economy is improving . tomorrow is the day i think for the pairs like NU n GU n AU to give back all its gain
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