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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,041
  • Edited 7:32pm Jun 30, 2014 1:30pm | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting randomn00b
{quote} meh
SURF'S UP BRUH.
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  • #14,042
  • Jun 30, 2014 6:06pm Jun 30, 2014 6:06pm
Very easy to say that it's bullish all the way to 175+, but it must break decisively over 173.5/6 and from there make at least a double top or marginal new high, before another fallback (maybe) into about 172.5/8 ish.

If it doesn't get over 173.5/6, there is still potential to drop all the way back again into the 169 area or below.
  • #14,043
  • Jun 30, 2014 6:28pm Jun 30, 2014 6:28pm
Quoting Mpt
Very easy to say that it's bullish all the way to 175+, but it must break decisively over 173.5/6 and from there make at least a double top or marginal new high, before another fallback (maybe) into about 172.5/8 ish. If it doesn't get over 173.5/6, there is still potential to drop all the way back again into the 169 area or below.
Agree with you here, Mpt. Although I am long now... hoping for a break higher.

I really think we need to see it well up and over 174 (which I understand falls under the "decisively" criteria) before we see it head much higher. Today was encouraging though, hopefully we can see some more movement tonight.
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  • #14,044
  • Jun 30, 2014 6:56pm Jun 30, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Agree with you here, Mpt. Although I am long now... hoping for a break higher. I really think we need to see it well up and over 174 (which I understand falls under the "decisively" criteria) before we see it head much higher. Today was encouraging though, hopefully we can see some more movement tonight.
The daily gann sits at about 173.5/6 and this move has rough similarities with a move back in August last year at 154.5. On that occasion, it stopped right at the the gann and fell 600 pips.
  • #14,045
  • Jun 30, 2014 7:31pm Jun 30, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} The daily gann sits at about 173.5/6 and this move has rough similarities with a move back in August last year at 154.5. On that occasion, it stopped right at the the gann and fell 600 pips.
I'll be loading up more longs once we hit 173.66

We are getting close, hopefully by midnight. I'm not waiting for 174, no need IMO.
  • #14,046
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:17pm Jun 30, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting Fx3422271
{quote} I'll be loading up more longs once we hit 173.66 We are getting close, hopefully by midnight. I'm not waiting for 174, no need IMO.
Another long triggered off D1 chart @ 173.621

SL 172.418
TP 176.027
  • #14,047
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:52pm Jun 30, 2014 11:52pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} The daily gann sits at about 173.5/6 and this move has rough similarities with a move back in August last year at 154.5. On that occasion, it stopped right at the the gann and fell 600 pips.
Dear mpt

may i ask the graph on last year august that stop at 154.50 and then fall 600 pips?

i am trying to check on that but i haven't found it, or maybe i might mis-understanding (due to my english is not too good)

thank you
Learning and Learing
  • #14,048
  • Edited 12:17am Jul 1, 2014 12:06am | Edited 12:17am
Quoting pladee
{quote} Dear mpt may i ask the graph on last year august that stop at 154.50 and then fall 600 pips? i am trying to check on that but i haven't found it, or maybe i might mis-understanding (due to my english is not too good) thank you
It was the week starting July 21 2013. And I did only say it was similar - not the same.
  • #14,049
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:57am Jul 1, 2014 5:57am
Mpt, how you can compare these two situations??? it is ridiculous!!
  • #14,050
  • Jul 1, 2014 7:54am Jul 1, 2014 7:54am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It was the week starting July 21 2013. And I did only say it was similar - not the same.
Dear mpt.

I think i am understand the thing now. It might repeat the pattern.
Learning and Learing
  • #14,051
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:39am Jul 1, 2014 8:39am
Quoting pladee
{quote} Dear mpt. I think i am understand the thing now. It might repeat the pattern.
No, not the same way now. Both were triangles where price was attempting a new high and in the example I gave you from 2013, it failed. In this case here, the break above 173.6 has negated the comparison, as price made a new high.
  • #14,052
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:44am Jul 1, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Fx3422271
176.146 HERE WE COME.
I also believe that coming to 176.XX, although I do not know the term .. For a long time I was waiting to go 183.XX and so on .. Figure W1 shows an upward trend in the long term ..
  • #14,053
  • Jul 1, 2014 5:47pm Jul 1, 2014 5:47pm
Hi,

at this price, are there any mark to see if she will continued searching foor a new high or she will be pull back?

i am now believe that the whole picture will be made a higher high and higher low.

she is on fire !!
Learning and Learing
  • #14,054
  • Edited 6:48pm Jul 1, 2014 6:16pm | Edited 6:48pm
Quoting pladee
Hi, at this price, are there any mark to see if she will continued searching foor a new high or she will be pull back? i am now believe that the whole picture will be made a higher high and higher low. she is on fire !!
Price is getting comfy above the 173.50 zone which is encouraging and a long time coming considering we haven't closed above that point on a daily basis since December 31st of last year!

That being said, we really need to see her poke above 175 to get the wheels rolling. If we can get there, I'd expect the uptrend to continue for a good while and it will be a nice "buy the dips" party.

EDIT: Typo... I meant 173.50, not 174.50
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  • #14,055
  • Jul 1, 2014 6:41pm Jul 1, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Price is getting comfy above the 174.50 zone which is encouraging and a long time coming considering we haven't closed above that point on a daily basis since December 31st of last year! That being said, we really need to see her poke above 175 to get the wheels rolling. If we can get there, I'd expect the uptrend to continue for a good while and it will be a nice "buy the dips" party.
For this week we will have only GBP data and news which are mostly expected negatively.. Yen has not much to offer this week and if they have these are positive. So if we assume the expected PMI data of GBP including construction (Wednesday) and services (Thursday) becomes real and Japan puts out positive bond sales on Thursday the GBP will not have the power to raise over 174.50 zone.. even if it makes a spike it will come back quickly to 174.00.

Long story short: With all due respect, I just wanted to say that this week doesn't look so encouraging to me.

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #14,056
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:04am Jul 2, 2014 3:04am
Can it break 174.4?
  • #14,057
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:34am Jul 2, 2014 3:34am
Not yet
  • #14,058
  • Jul 2, 2014 4:18am Jul 2, 2014 4:18am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} For this week we will have only GBP data and news which are mostly expected negatively.. Yen has not much to offer this week and if they have these are positive. So if we assume the expected PMI data of GBP including construction (Wednesday) and services (Thursday) becomes real and Japan puts out positive bond sales on Thursday the GBP will not have the power to raise over 174.50 zone.. even if it makes a spike it will come back quickly to 174.00. Long story short: With all due respect, I just wanted to say that this week doesn't look so...
Right now, even after good PMI data for GBP, price didn't shoot up.. I ask myself why? So there must be other reasons that stop GBP to go higher at the moment. Psychology? Market Makers? Can't figure out yet.. all I will look for is: Does price stay above 174.00 then we have a chance to go higher.. everything otherwise keeps me think "short"

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #14,059
  • Jul 2, 2014 4:46am Jul 2, 2014 4:46am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Right now, even after good PMI data for GBP, price didn't shoot up.. I ask myself why? So there must be other reasons that stop GBP to go higher at the moment. Psychology? Market Makers? Can't figure out yet.. all I will look for is: Does price stay above 174.00 then we have a chance to go higher.. everything otherwise keeps me think "short" Happy Trades
Fair questions. Resistance is reasonably easy to see - I didn't just out up my previous posts with no regard to common sense. GU resistance was simple to see, GJ was very easy (both within a few pips) and UJ is well stuck below resistance. I wasn't sure whether GJ would stop at 174.35 or .4 - so I called .4 with a question mark.

The very big question is, as always, will one or both of them break? And will it give up 174. If it does, it'll revisit 173.7 and if that were to break, 173.1 ish.
  • #14,060
  • Jul 2, 2014 4:52am Jul 2, 2014 4:52am
Wondering at the same thing. does not make sense. Sitting with longs, but won't go to shorts.
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