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AUD/USD

  • #81,521
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:05pm Jul 1, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I'm not arguing that gold isn't correlated.
Oh
Attached Image
Trade at your own risk.
  • #81,522
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:11pm Jul 1, 2014 1:11pm
The original statement was that the AU wasn't correlated to Iron ore. The poor price of Iron ore atm is hurting our economy, just need to turn on the 6 o'clock news here in Aus to know that
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,523
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:14pm Jul 1, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting Matts Micro
The original statement was that the AU wasn't correlated to Iron ore. The poor price of Iron ore atm is hurting our economy, just need to turn on the 6 o'clock news here in Aus to know that
Who's original statement? If it was stated then why don't you quote it within your statement?
Trade at your own risk.
  • #81,524
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:17pm Jul 1, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Whoa. Logic. Some guy from Australia was trying to tell me last night that iron ore was down so AUD/USD was going down. hahaha
....
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,525
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:18pm Jul 1, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} ....
Well done, now you can see that I was laughing about it because the correlation is null compared to the Gold + AUD/USD correlation.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #81,526
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:21pm Jul 1, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} .. {image}
where u get these infos from ?
pls share link
  • #81,527
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:21pm Jul 1, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I'm not arguing that gold isn't correlated.
interesting, made a chart yesterday about Gold correlation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Correlation.PNG Size: 62 KB
just do it
  • #81,528
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:27pm Jul 1, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} Well done, now you can see that I was laughing about it because the correlation is null compared to the Gold + AUD/USD correlation.
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ind...2014/03/10/08/
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,529
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:34pm Jul 1, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ind...2014/03/10/08/
Doesn't look like a very tight correlation. You can actually see that AUD/USD was going up since before January, 2014 whilst iron ore has been crashing during the same time period. Meanwhile, both AUD/USD and XAU/USD have been rising during the same time period. Hence, the 83.4% correlation.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #81,530
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:40pm Jul 1, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I was told in 10 years will see $2.5K per ounce
anal yst say stuff like that
  • #81,531
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:47pm Jul 1, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ind...2014/03/10/08/
I put this here so you can recognise the correlation between Iron ore and the industry in Aus/China. I can't read your mind but can only read the words you wrote. There is a correlation to the AU and Iron Ore.

Our mining industry has kept this country afloat with Iron Ore, Coal, Gold etc. during the gfc. The Correlations will float slightly as our mining industry is having less of an impact on our economy atm but with China's above expected figures last month they are saying that there is a possibility of a rekindling of the mining industry in the near future.

I will ask you a high school question. If the price of a countries major export drops what happens to that countries industry that is supported by that export? Think of factories, employment etc etc.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,532
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:59pm Jul 1, 2014 1:59pm
Gold could be having another run. Looking for a break of 1330.4 for further demand.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,533
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:02pm Jul 1, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I put this here so you can recognise the correlation between Iron ore and the industry in Aus/China. I can't read your mind but can only read the words you wrote. There is a correlation to the AU and Iron Ore. Our mining industry has kept this country afloat with Iron Ore, Coal, Gold etc. during the gfc. The Correlations will float slightly as our mining industry is having less of an impact on our economy atm but with China's above expected figures last month they are saying that there is a possibility of a rekindling of the mining industry...
You have to understand that I am not an economist, I am a trader. You also have to decide which one are you? I understand what you are saying but none of this has any bearing on the trade itself. If we have an 83.4% correlation between XAU/USD and AUD/USD then we don't need to understand the mundane details of the economy itself. I'm sorry, but I am a technical analyst and I really don't see how fundamentals help you trade. They are more of a hindrance in my opinion.

Especially when you have such a tight correlation. You cannot trade based on what "should" happen, you have to trade based on what "is" happening.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #81,534
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:20pm Jul 1, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting Fx3423454
{quote} You have to understand that I am not an economist, I am a trader. You also have to decide which one are you? I understand what you are saying but none of this has any bearing on the trade itself. If we have an 83.4% correlation between XAU/USD and AUD/USD then we don't need to understand the mundane details of the economy itself. I'm sorry, but I am a technical analyst and I really don't see how fundamentals help you trade. They are more of a hindrance in my opinion. Especially when you have such a tight correlation. You cannot trade based...
I agree with all you say. The fundamentals imo give a broad range and the possibility of a direction. I am too a TA but if I saw that yesterdays Aus IR was less than expected but had a bullish setup on my charts I would have avoided the setup and probably sat on the sidelines for further confirmation. Additionally because I was listening to the news here and reading reports I knew there was little chance of an IR rise and 99% chance there wouldn't be a drop. The only unknown was the RBA statement. I therefore was positioned before the announcement. I am new to fundamentals and only base my trading thoughts on the AUD as it is easier to gather information to that of the U.S. or Europe.

Anyways, I need sleep.
GL
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,535
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:46pm Jul 1, 2014 2:46pm
Closed my 4xShorts as loss at 9482
If this is a new uptrend I am not standing in front of it.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #81,536
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:48pm Jul 1, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I put this here so you can recognise the correlation between Iron ore and the industry in Aus/China. I can't read your mind but can only read the words you wrote. There is a correlation to the AU and Iron Ore. Our mining industry has kept this country afloat with Iron Ore, Coal, Gold etc. during the gfc. The Correlations will float slightly as our mining industry is having less of an impact on our economy atm but with China's above expected figures last month they are saying that there is a possibility of a rekindling of the mining industry...
Agree on content
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #81,537
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:58pm Jul 1, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I agree with all you say. The fundamentals imo give a broad range and the possibility of a direction. I am too a TA but if I saw that yesterdays Aus IR was less than expected but had a bullish setup on my charts I would have avoided the setup and probably sat on the sidelines for further confirmation. Additionally because I was listening to the news here and reading reports I knew there was little chance of an IR rise and 99% chance there wouldn't be a drop. The only unknown was the RBA statement. I therefore was positioned before the announcement....

Trading currency and commodity correlation is not a good practice IMO. Best just to stick with countries interest rate and monetary policy changes. Because what are you saying is same as me saying buy oil is like buying cad. While yes they are related and you said it exactly: broad, that does nothing to help in making a trade. What help us is the expectation of the mass and the reaction of their decisions in market place. This is better displayed through the release of rate decisions and monetary policy IMO.
You see, yesterdays IR was NOT less than expected, it stayed the same. Which is good, we also had CNY data that helped out too prior to IR. I actually played AUD to long side before news came out so I got some pips, but I am holding for longer because I think AUDUSD is under valued and going much higher in the coming months..
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #81,538
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:59pm Jul 1, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting Davit
Closed my 4xShorts as loss at 9482 If this is a new uptrend I am not standing in front of it.
I think you closed too early
Tonite should go DOWN
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #81,539
  • Jul 1, 2014 3:04pm Jul 1, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I think you closed too early Tonite should go DOWN
What make you think that?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #81,540
  • Jul 1, 2014 3:08pm Jul 1, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} What make you think that?
i'd say trade balance has something to do with it.
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