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AUD/USD

  • #81,161
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:00am Jun 30, 2014 10:00am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} That is what I said some days ago. Do you remember your answer?
Don't remember I have selective memory
  • #81,162
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:01am Jun 30, 2014 10:01am
Bugger the AU where's it going, going to break? It missed my trigger at 75
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,163
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:04am Jun 30, 2014 10:04am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yah this is good advise imo. It's basically what I do but didn't really know until I read it. I am looking for technical setups etc and watch for general news, financial releases, news releases etc for confirmation on direction. The reason I mentioned the IR Nealpek is even if you ignore all other news (side from nfp ofc) the IR should give the trend direction of that currency. Like I've said many times before I'm no guru and never try to convince people otherwise but rather just say it how I see it; I'm sometimes right, sometimes wrong...
every trader has to go through what i call "the cycle of a trader". As your trading progresses, you "see" and "learn" that as you develop from a more "complex" style of trading to a "simpler" style with much less variables to consider.. trading becomes easier and less clouded.
it takes time and each trader has to go through it his/herself at their own pace and in their own time...if you tough it out you will eventually get there...
hey i'm still learning...and will always continue to learn, its a neverending process...doctors have to spend at least 4 years in med school, you have to 'pay' for your trading education too, in the form of losses, to learn, unfortunately!!!
  • #81,164
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:06am Jun 30, 2014 10:06am
Can't believe if it's rejected at the same spot again
  • #81,165
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:06am Jun 30, 2014 10:06am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Don't remember I have selective memory
That reminds me of my grandmother before Alzheimer ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #81,166
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:15am Jun 30, 2014 10:15am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} every trader has to go through what i call "the cycle of a trader". As your trading progresses, you "see" and "learn" that as you develop from a more "complex" style of trading to a "simpler" style with much less variables to consider.. trading becomes easier and less clouded. it takes time and each trader has to go through it his/herself at their own pace and in their own time...if you tough it out you will eventually get there... hey i'm still learning...and will always continue to learn, its a neverending process...
True, I'm 6 years in and still have heaps to learn. My trading style lacks complexity but imo I think it's not necessarily about a complex system but an understanding of price action and what makes it move.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,167
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:21am Jun 30, 2014 10:21am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} every trader has to go through what i call "the cycle of a trader". As your trading progresses, you "see" and "learn" that as you develop from a more "complex" style of trading to a "simpler" style with much less variables to consider.. trading becomes easier and less clouded. it takes time and each trader has to go through it his/herself at their own pace and in their own time...if you tough it out you will eventually get there... hey i'm still learning...and will always continue to learn, its a neverending process...doctors have...
So now you know what my BPP is brother....hint....hint.....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #81,168
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:28am Jun 30, 2014 10:28am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} True, I'm 6 years in and still have heaps to learn. My trading style lacks complexity but imo I think it's not necessarily about a complex system but an understanding of price action and what makes it move.
we already know what makes price move... the big boys.price action is just that, price action.what a candle looks like, close at the top/ bottom, red or green is just what it looks like. it shoudn't incite you to trade in most cases. look at the PA that touched the my blue box...does PA really tell you to buy or sell?
not to me!!! what gives me more info, is what price did at my predetermined level i was interested in, not what each candle looked like.
the hardest part of trading is determining where the predetermined level is, this is where most traders have the greatest difficulty...
figure this out, and trading becomes easy...this is exactly what i've been talking about!!!
  • #81,169
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:37am Jun 30, 2014 10:37am
Quoting nealpek
I very much find these threads entertaining,and here's why: a few years ago, i was fortunate to be asked by an 'invited' guest to join him in an unadvertised private traders conference at the Javitz center in ny city a couple of years ago.approx 200 top notch traders attended this 2 day conference.Besides the very interesting speakers, there were many conversations i was engaged in, as well as overheard. What struck me, is that fundamentals were never mentioned. these traders were discussing 'money trails', 'footprints', and other related matters....
Very valid points. Eventually the final purpose of every trade is to profit, which means selling for higher price than you bought and buying for less price than you sold. Every and each discussion in trading forums are directly and indirectly connected with identifying WHY and HOW price moves. Unfortunately traders look at the wrong places to find an answer and fall into trap of fallacies of analysis of various types. One of the biggest mistakes is that people have turned the trading into science. Trading has never been a science. It will always remain as an art of making profit. Who does not or can not understand this most probably will not become a profitable trader in long run.
As Above, So Below
  • #81,170
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:39am Jun 30, 2014 10:39am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} we already know what makes price move... the big boys.price action is just that, price action.what a candle looks like, close at the top/ bottom, red or green is just what it looks like. it shoudn't incite you to trade in most cases. look at the PA that touched the my blue box...does PA really tell you to buy or sell? not to me!!! what gives me more info, is what price did at my predetermined level i was interested in, not what each candle looked like. the hardest part of trading is determining where the predetermined level is, this is where...
Understanding price action to me is- levels, s/r, s&d, when to buy and sell, candles, etc etc etc.

Things to do, bbl.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,171
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:40am Jun 30, 2014 10:40am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} Very valid points. Eventually the final purpose of every trade is to profit, which means selling for higher price than you bought and buying for less price than you sold. Every and each discussion in trading forums are directly and indirectly connected with identifying WHY and HOW price moves. Unfortunately traders look at the wrong places to find an answer and fall into trap of fallacies of analysis of various types. One of the biggest mistakes is that people have turned the trading to science. Trading has never been a science. It will...
you nailed it...
  • #81,172
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:46am Jun 30, 2014 10:46am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Understanding price action to me is- levels, s/r, s&d, when to buy and sell, candles, etc etc etc. Things to do, bbl.
i see eight different things you 'look' for to place a trade.... i 'look' for only 1 thing, for every trade i take. so you have 7 more 'things' to cloud your mind with, while my focus is on only 1 thing... whose system is 'easier'?
  • #81,173
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:00am Jun 30, 2014 11:00am
I think something that's completely forgotten is that we aren't trading fundamentals in this market. Just as neal pointed out, we're trading what bigger money than all of us combined transacts to facilitate international transactions is all.

Sure, interest rates play a healthy role in making shorting higher yield currencies risky. Other than that, I see more and more traders wondering "why did the dollar gain on that news?" comments all the time...totally leaving behind what this market is all about in the first place.

When you look at all of it for what it really is: Your broker loves nothing more than you placing a trade out of confusion. They make money on that. Knowing that interest is more than just the money a bank charges you for borrowing should cause one to ponder what your brokers primary interest would be.....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #81,174
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:06am Jun 30, 2014 11:06am
boy, that's refreshing...
  • #81,175
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:07am Jun 30, 2014 11:07am
Quoting Matts Micro
Bugger the AU where's it going, going to break? It missed my trigger at 75
IMO: things are running a bit different today squaring up the quarter and pending news...

My prediction:

we have an afternoon drift down possibly settling in the 390s with a down spike to tap the 370s then climb...

(I'm personally looking for 372 for a possible buy...I did buy in at 396 and banked at 427 earlier....)

The other: rally up over the 440s with a spike up and shorts triggered..
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #81,176
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:16am Jun 30, 2014 11:16am
Looks like about done for now
  • #81,177
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:23am Jun 30, 2014 11:23am
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  • #81,178
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:27am Jun 30, 2014 11:27am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} i see eight different things you 'look' for to place a trade.... i 'look' for only 1 thing, for every trade i take. so you have 7 more 'things' to cloud your mind with, while my focus is on only 1 thing... whose system is 'easier'?
When I was a child I learnt to recognise a house, a tree, a road and a footpath. Now when I go for a walk I know not to walk into the wall of the house, headlong into a tree or to walk in the middle of a busy road but rather to use a footpath. As my skill increased I learnt to cross a busy road, find a door to a house and even climb a tree and all pretty much without thinking about it. As I got even better I could use a footpaths to find my way round unfamiliar neighborhoods by recognising landmarks like schools, hospitals, and police stations.

The point is, all territory in forex is unfamiliar as prices change every minute and rarely repeats itself exactly. The challenge imo is being able to recognise landmarks and being able to negotiate the terrain and that comes with studying familiar sign posts.

If you can trade profitably with knowing one thing then I truly applaud you, for you have surely found the holy grail.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #81,179
  • Edited 11:52am Jun 30, 2014 11:34am | Edited 11:52am
The point is, all territory in forex is unfamiliar as prices change every minute and rarely repeats itself exactly.

absolutely true. no two groupings of price action ever look the same exactly, when entering a demand zone. That's why relying on a pattern or what price action looks like, rarely works. the action will look different and unfamiliar each time theses 'decision' points, or changes in direction occur. this is why the 'look' of price action isn't very important.
Where it occurs, IS!
Even Rocky and others, misses things sometimes, we all do. But i'll bet that Rocky and i have one thing in common...
When we're wrong or blow a trade, we're looking for what we might have missed, and why we missed it, and try not to make the same mistake again!
  • #81,180
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:37am Jun 30, 2014 11:37am
...and this market expresses pretty clearly by price action where possible reversals will be. You just have to do some digging for it to show you is all.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
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