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AUD/USD

  • #81,141
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:11am Jun 30, 2014 9:11am
Quoting Ken A
If all these go in one direction will be extremely bullish + today is quarter end. {image}
If this comes and following current PA, I might reconsider if there will be even one more upper leg in E/A. 1.4550 looks like a dead end at the moment.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #81,142
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:11am Jun 30, 2014 9:11am
That's a good write Neal. About a week or so ago I was told by a very good trader, that he was told long ago by a very good trader, to listen to the news but trade the technicals. He says it's worked great for him. So, it's only been a week for me but of course the thought persists in my mind and so far, I can see that as valid.

I'm not sure if that's what Ken does but if so, few do it better.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #81,143
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:15am Jun 30, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Ken A
Buy {image}
I already did...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 21 KB
  • #81,144
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:16am Jun 30, 2014 9:16am
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} I was thinking of risking it but I have sat out, looking for a better opportunity to short.
Yea got k/o -4 pips now long again.

But trust your own
  • #81,145
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:19am Jun 30, 2014 9:19am
Quoting albchr
That's a good write Neal. About a week or so ago I was told by a very good trader, that he was told long ago by a very good trader, to listen to the news but trade the technicals. He says it's worked great for him. So, it's only been a week for me but of course the thought persists in my mind and so far, I can see that as valid. I'm not sure if that's what Ken does but if so, few do it better.
Hey alb, it is valid...you just have to be damn sure of your technicals, and the news can be used to your advantage.
almost 100% of the time those spiky news events, draw up or down to a fresh supply or demand zone, then fly away...
i still prefer to wait for the storm to pass, and then jump on board when it returns, just like the trade i'm in right now...easy peasy,
much prefer to take trades when the 'emotions ' are more neutral...
  • #81,146
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:20am Jun 30, 2014 9:20am
Quoting albchr
That's a good write Neal. About a week or so ago I was told by a very good trader, that he was told long ago by a very good trader, to listen to the news but trade the technicals. He says it's worked great for him. So, it's only been a week for me but of course the thought persists in my mind and so far, I can see that as valid. I'm not sure if that's what Ken does but if so, few do it better.
Technical is important and knowing when and where certain data and how it will affect price is a powerful combination when to stay in or out of the trade. Problem is can't stay up 24/7 to follow all the events.

Listen/read news is different from reading opinionated articles/blogs though
  • #81,147
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:22am Jun 30, 2014 9:22am
Quoting nealpek
I very much find these threads entertaining,and here's why: a few years ago, i was fortunate to be asked by an 'invited' guest to join him in an unadvertised private traders conference at the Javitz center in ny city a couple of years ago.approx 200 top notch traders attended this 2 day conference.Besides the very interesting speakers, there were many conversations i was engaged in, as well as overheard. What struck me, is that fundamentals were never mentioned. these traders were discussing 'money trails', 'footprints', and other related matters....
Nealpek, your absolutely right. Nice write up, Rocky!
  • #81,148
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:26am Jun 30, 2014 9:26am
After last post E/A short +40 pips

That's fast
  • #81,149
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:27am Jun 30, 2014 9:27am
Quoting Ken A
After last post E/A short +40 pips That's fast
I got in at 1.4525. Where did you catch it? Question is on the pip of course, just wanted to see if it is the top on the pip LOL
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #81,150
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:33am Jun 30, 2014 9:33am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yea got k/o -4 pips now long again. But trust your own
Better safe then sorry, I am trying to change my habits now where I trade only when I can see clear direction.
Good US news just came out but the aussie shot up. wtf?
  • #81,151
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:33am Jun 30, 2014 9:33am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I got in at 1.4525. Where did you catch it? Question is on the pip of course, just wanted to see if it is the top on the pip LOL
Last high 1.454x

But E/U bullish probably this short is not going to get far
  • #81,152
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:33am Jun 30, 2014 9:33am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} Hey alb, it is valid...you just have to be damn sure of your technicals, and the news can be used to your advantage. almost 100% of the time those spiky news events, draw up or down to a fresh supply or demand zone, then fly away... i still prefer to wait for the storm to pass, and then jump on board when it returns, just like the trade i'm in right now...easy peasy, much prefer to take trades when the 'emotions ' are more neutral...
I couldn't agree more Neal. I'm a TA trader but as you say, allowing the news driven movements to work for us is a good thing.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #81,153
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:34am Jun 30, 2014 9:34am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} I already did... {image}
How is the lower bit a demand zone? I with I had that on my chart I would have bought!
  • #81,154
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:34am Jun 30, 2014 9:34am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Last high 1.454x But E/U bullish probably this short is not going to get far
Yes, I saw that, the question is just for how long can E/U be stronger than A/U?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #81,155
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:36am Jun 30, 2014 9:36am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Yes, I saw that, the question is just for how long can E/U be stronger than A/U?
Probably not if looking from the yields
  • #81,156
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:42am Jun 30, 2014 9:42am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Probably not if looking from the yields
Exactly, I noticed this myself while holding E/A long the first time for some days. The swap is really expensive and much better if holding short E/A, which makes the short setups much more attractive. So given the fact that A/U is more or less in a range and E/U in down trend supported by fundamental facts (very low yield after last ECB decisions), I doubt that this will last for too long now. Technically, 1.4500 looks like strong resistance in the daily chart now, having an almost symmetrical double top (candle not closed yet though ...) Disclaimer: Do not believe anything I write LOL
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #81,157
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:46am Jun 30, 2014 9:46am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Exactly, I noticed this myself while holding E/A long the first time for some days. The swap is really expensive and much better if holding short E/A, which makes the short setups much more attractive. So given the fact that A/U is more or less in a range and E/U in down trend supported by fundamental facts (very low yield after last ECB decisions), I doubt that this will last for too long now. Technically, 1.4500 looks like strong resistance in the daily chart now, having an almost symmetrical double top (candle not closed yet though ...)...
Imagine you shorted from 1.583x January 2014 by now over 1,300 pips + 6 months of positive swaps.

Won't see that 1.583x again probably until 2019
  • #81,158
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:50am Jun 30, 2014 9:50am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Imagine you shorted from 1.583x January 2014 by now over 1,300 pips + 6 months of positive swaps. Won't see that 1.583x again probably until 2019
That is what I said some days ago. Do you remember your answer?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #81,159
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:51am Jun 30, 2014 9:51am
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} Better safe then sorry, I am trying to change my habits now where I trade only when I can see clear direction. Good US news just came out but the aussie shot up. wtf?
refer to my long winded rant a few posts back. this is why, imo, fundies occupy a very tiny portion of my cerebellum. news going in reverse of expectation could be sucking people into the wrong side of the move, like the supply zone price is sitting in right now, or catching people on the wrong side at the beginning of the move, for that added momentum to push it higher, we'll see...
  • #81,160
  • Jun 30, 2014 9:55am Jun 30, 2014 9:55am
Quoting albchr
That's a good write Neal. About a week or so ago I was told by a very good trader, that he was told long ago by a very good trader, to listen to the news but trade the technicals. He says it's worked great for him. So, it's only been a week for me but of course the thought persists in my mind and so far, I can see that as valid. I'm not sure if that's what Ken does but if so, few do it better.
Yah this is good advise imo. It's basically what I do but didn't really know until I read it. I am looking for technical setups etc and watch for general news, financial releases, news releases etc for confirmation on direction.

The reason I mentioned the IR Nealpek is even if you ignore all other news (side from nfp ofc) the IR should give the trend direction of that currency. Like I've said many times before I'm no guru and never try to convince people otherwise but rather just say it how I see it; I'm sometimes right, sometimes wrong but always learning.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
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