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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #131,381
  • Edited 9:38am Jun 29, 2014 9:19am | Edited 9:38am
Hello Team,
Can you please take look on my analysis of NZDJPY base on candles closed on last week?
We are back below strong area of support (marked by arrows) with outside bar. It was third attempt at this line to break. I was planning to enter on 50% retrace and BE at bar low near middle box PPZ.
The contrary is that below we had break TL, and we have box and we are still in in uptrend.
So I will better pass this trade but I wanted to post something since I did not took any trade since few days already
Please let me know your comments, please let me know if my concerns are ok or you would add something.
Thx.
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  • #131,382
  • Jun 29, 2014 1:28pm Jun 29, 2014 1:28pm
my weekly outlook notes are here.

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  • #131,383
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:55pm Jun 29, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting vanilla.sky
Hello Team, Can you please take look on my analysis of NZDJPY base on candles closed on last week? We are back below strong area of support (marked by arrows) with outside bar. It was third attempt at this line to break. I was planning to enter on 50% retrace and BE at bar low near middle box PPZ. The contrary is that below we had break TL, and we have box and we are still in in uptrend. So I will better pass this trade but I wanted to post something since I did not took any trade since few days already Please let me know your comments, please...
Hello. I was also watching on it. There is a good place for selling after BEOB on strong resistance. But I think that the box right below is much problem zone, so I would be aware of it.
  • #131,384
  • Jun 30, 2014 1:30am Jun 30, 2014 1:30am
Hi all. Here is my view on USDCHF (Weekly). Would be glad to see your comments.

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  • #131,385
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:10am Jun 30, 2014 2:10am
Quoting Nazarm
{quote} Hello. I was also watching on it. There is a good place for selling after BEOB on strong resistance. But I think that the box right below is much problem zone, so I would be aware of it.
Hi,
I have made test entry and it works well so far as I already took half profit and move to BE. Currently price on support area (Magneta lines).
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  • #131,386
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:25am Jun 30, 2014 2:25am
Quoting vanilla.sky
{quote} Hi, I have made test entry and it works well so far as I already took half profit and move to BE. Currently price on support area (Magneta lines). {image}
Well done. Momentum is our friend as James says)
  • #131,387
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:20am Jun 30, 2014 3:20am
Quoting vanilla.sky
Hello Team, Can you please take look on my analysis of NZDJPY base on candles closed on last week? We are back below strong area of support (marked by arrows) with outside bar. It was third attempt at this line to break. I was planning to enter on 50% retrace and BE at bar low near middle box PPZ. The contrary is that below we had break TL, and we have box and we are still in in uptrend. So I will better pass this trade but I wanted to post something since I did not took any trade since few days already Please let me know your comments, please...
Hai,

In 4Hr it is a wedge that broke. Probably it is heading to 87.70,but a clear break of 88.40 is needed. As a bearish divergence is in function it can be shorted on a pullback near 88.80 for a target of 88.50,87.95.
  • #131,388
  • Edited 5:59am Jun 30, 2014 5:11am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Dan THat's a common question I get. One email I got the other day was something as follows. Mike I don't know if you play poker but in poker we need to play tens of thousands of hands to know if we have an edge. Isn't trading the same? I come from a poker background so I know it all and more about variance and an edge. But pokers variables are very different and you are limited to 52 cards and the scenarios that come from that(yes you add in table size, opponent etc) but trading is VERY different. It's scalablilty is beyond better and...
How long did it take you until you where confident in what you are doing? My last 42 trades gave me 14 Winners,13Losers and 17BE with an average R/R of roughly 2/1(not exact but close enough). That would give me a Profit Factor of 2.15 wich would be great. I'm just not very confident about it in the long run yet.

EDIT:Nowadays I really thing the hardest thing about trading is just getting around to actually doing it.I want to start through but I can't really bring myself to put things into motion.
  • #131,389
  • Jun 30, 2014 5:27am Jun 30, 2014 5:27am
Quoting stockEX
{quote} How long did it take you until you where confident in what you are doing? My last 42 trades gave me 14 Winners,13Losers and 16BE with an average R/R of roughly 2/1(not exact but close enough). That would give me a Profit Factor of 2.15 wich would be great. I'm just not very confident about it in the long run yet. EDIT:Nowadays I really thing the hardest thing about trading is just getting around to actually doing it.I want to start through but I can't really bring myself to put things into motion.

The key to what you just said is the word "Nowadays". Nowadays we are living in historically low volatility environment which requires adjustments and a lot of sitting on one's hands. The swings are going to be weaker and smaller. What I find useful is to switch to lower time frames. If you trade off weekly and daily you may have to unfortunately switch to 12H, 8H, etc... to find something trade-able. The good news however, after 4th of July volatility usually picks up, hoping this year it'll do the same.
  • #131,390
  • Jun 30, 2014 5:48am Jun 30, 2014 5:48am
Quoting contrails
{quote} The key to what you just said is the word "Nowadays". Nowadays we are living in historically low volatility environment which requires adjustments and a lot of sitting on one's hands. The swings are going to be weaker and smaller. What I find useful is to switch to lower time frames. If you trade off weekly and daily you may have to unfortunately switch to 12H, 8H, etc... to find something trade-able. The good news however, after 4th of July volatility usually picks up, hoping this year it'll do the same.
Hello contrails,
You got valid point. Min req were set out some time ago and as you say the market has changed this might require review.
I was considering this before stating posting here. My problem is however still overtrading, confidence, etc. So I am still finding this very valuable for me staying on D1.
But on the other hand swings on h4 are really nice. But not for me at the moment. I was so tired with trading that I did not even know if I am one part of human any more. So for now, sitting on hands is something I am finding pleasure and relax

Regards.
  • #131,391
  • Jun 30, 2014 5:51am Jun 30, 2014 5:51am
Quoting Nazarm
{quote} Well done. Momentum is our friend as James says)
Quoting kalyan
{quote} Hai, In 4Hr it is a wedge that broke. Probably it is heading to 87.70,but a clear break of 88.40 is needed. As a bearish divergence is in function it can be shorted on a pullback near 88.80 for a target of 88.50,87.95.
Hi guys,
Thanks for your comments.

Regards.
  • #131,392
  • Jun 30, 2014 5:58am Jun 30, 2014 5:58am
Quoting vanilla.sky
{quote} Hello contrails, You got valid point. Min req were set out some time ago and as you say the market has changed this might require review. I was considering this before stating posting here. My problem is however still overtrading, confidence, etc. So I am still finding this very valuable for me staying on D1. But on the other hand swings on h4 are really nice. But not for me at the moment. I was so tired with trading that I did not even know if I am one part of human any more. So for now, sitting on hands is something I am finding pleasure...

I am in your boat Vanilla, I come from daytrading ES and CL mini futures and basically I used to trade a set time period of the day 5 AM-11 AM california time. I have my reasons not to trade futures (or options) any more and I am still figuring out the timing of Forex and trying to come up with alerts system to be more efficient. I never used alerts because I never needed to for my day trading.

The nice thing about trading long time frames is you do not need to make split second decisions, unlike what I was doing. Before I enter a trade I ask myself, where would it be better area for me to enter. If my signal bar is far away from my area I just pass. Most of the time turns out that I was in the middle of the range on higher time frames and so I wait...

And the other obstacle was I "average down" my entries throughout my signal bar and that can get too complicated when things move fast.
  • #131,393
  • Jun 30, 2014 6:07am Jun 30, 2014 6:07am
Quoting contrails
{quote} The key to what you just said is the word "Nowadays". Nowadays we are living in historically low volatility environment which requires adjustments and a lot of sitting on one's hands. The swings are going to be weaker and smaller. What I find useful is to switch to lower time frames. If you trade off weekly and daily you may have to unfortunately switch to 12H, 8H, etc... to find something trade-able. The good news however, after 4th of July volatility usually picks up, hoping this year it'll do the same.
That is not what I meant.I don't trade like most people here (although I use most of the concepts presentd in this thread).I find plenty of trade opportunities and I haven't noticed any decrease in volatility myself.

What I meant is that I have problems trading with discipline and confidence over long periods of time.Just the ups and downs of trading.I think one needs absolute confidence to pull through that with a large account.
  • #131,394
  • Jun 30, 2014 6:27am Jun 30, 2014 6:27am
My today's trade on GBPAUD.

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  • #131,395
  • Jun 30, 2014 6:51am Jun 30, 2014 6:51am
Quoting stockEX
{quote} How long did it take you until you where confident in what you are doing? My last 42 trades gave me 14 Winners,13Losers and 17BE with an average R/R of roughly 2/1(not exact but close enough). That would give me a Profit Factor of 2.15 wich would be great. I'm just not very confident about it in the long run yet. EDIT:Nowadays I really thing the hardest thing about trading is just getting around to actually doing it.I want to start through but I can't really bring myself to put things into motion.
Hey Stock

It's such a slow progression to confidence in my view. I always tell people their was a period of time when I was profitable for awhile but wasn't even confident in what I was doing. It was sort of like you explain about did i really know my method. Over the next few wears after that my method continued to change. Nothing drastic but much like it still does today just that you try to be as perfect as you can with your decisions. I began to trade even less, and my focus is just being as logical as possible with every decision I made. Then slowly it just becomes what you do. Everything else is irrelevant and when you sit down you feel very comfortable with every single move you make. Now trading is still trading. It's great months, good months, and bad months. But weathering the bad months becomes easier because they never get out of hand and your confidence will grow the most in my view when you don't make those bad decisions that are not based on logic.

You sound like you are doing absolutely fantastic and just stick with that. Constantly evaluate the things you are doing honestly. Time is the only thing that will create comfort and it's never one day where you go aha that's it. I am constantly evaluating myself and reinforcing the good things i do and correcting the bad things I do. Just the mistakes become a lot lot less, and the mental side of trading sort of disappears in a lot of ways. I actually think the thing most people chase is that moment of I GOT IT! It doesn't exist as a single moment but a string of experience. That's why for example James has the minimum requirements. Because you have to evaluate things on a longer term and realize that also changes over time.

You're doing great and it's just a matter of time in your case

Mike
  • #131,396
  • Jun 30, 2014 7:04am Jun 30, 2014 7:04am
Quoting stockEX
{quote} That is not what I meant.I don't trade like most people here (although I use most of the concepts presentd in this thread).I find plenty of trade opportunities and I haven't noticed any decrease in volatility myself. What I meant is that I have problems trading with discipline and confidence over long periods of time.Just the ups and downs of trading.I think one needs absolute confidence to pull through that with a large account.
Hello stockEX,
I was also considering your point. I had once quite profitable period of time and then I instead of pushing it harder, stopped trading like for 3 weeks as I could not believe it is real or I thought that its not something I deserve or no-boss life was unreal or something else. I really don't know why but I stopped.
There must be many moments like this as you say especially when more advanced in trading.

Unfortunately when I was trading back, the profitable period "somehow" was over and I am back doing lessons with you all

Regards.
  • #131,397
  • Jun 30, 2014 7:37am Jun 30, 2014 7:37am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Stock It's such a slow progression to confidence in my view. I always tell people their was a period of time when I was profitable for awhile but wasn't even confident in what I was doing. It was sort of like you explain about did i really know my method. Over the next few wears after that my method continued to change. Nothing drastic but much like it still does today just that you try to be as perfect as you can with your decisions. I began to trade even less, and my focus is just being as logical as possible with every decision I...
That is one hell of an encouragement coming from you. Thanks ,I needed that.And that Aha-moment you're talking about definitely rings a bell,I'm just slowly realizing that it's not going to come.

Back to my charts ,happy trading to you all.
  • #131,398
  • Jun 30, 2014 8:31am Jun 30, 2014 8:31am
Monthly candles that I see promising.

Is there anyone bearish on the Euro anymore?
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  • #131,399
  • Jun 30, 2014 1:41pm Jun 30, 2014 1:41pm
good enough bullishy bar bouncing off TL
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  • #131,400
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:29pm Jun 30, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting vanilla.sky
{quote} Hello stockEX, I was also considering your point. I had once quite profitable period of time and then I instead of pushing it harder, stopped trading like for 3 weeks as I could not believe it is real or I thought that its not something I deserve or no-boss life was unreal or something else. I really don't know why but I stopped. There must be many moments like this as you say especially when more advanced in trading. Unfortunately when I was trading back, the profitable period "somehow" was over and I am back doing lessons with you all...
Same here guys,
last year I had 9 consecutive profitable months then I had to stop trading because of my health issues and then I had to also write my thesis in order to finish college and get masterīs degree. So I had a few months pause (because I said to myself that health and finished education have priority) and now Iīm pretty much in the worst period of my trading so far because not only that confidence is gone and Iīm not profitable but I canīt even find trading opportunities, somehow Iīm sort of blocked.

Mav
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