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AUD/USD

  • #80,841
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:09am Jun 26, 2014 2:09am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} FF should be your first priority, heh. usdcad has broken support, NU is at top with further movement possible imo, EA is challenging support. Looks bullish imo. Gold is a bit of a worry though with potential for a further pull back.
Two things on U/CAD dollar weakness and CAD data has been positive. There's a barrier at 1.070 don't know how long this will hold.

I am watching N/U have closed the fresh longs near the top.

E/A will depend if more going to Aussie but it looks that way atm

Re Gold, avoid staring at hourly chart then you'll be fine.
  • #80,842
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:18am Jun 26, 2014 2:18am
May we will get good down fall soon...
  • #80,843
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:18am Jun 26, 2014 2:18am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Two things on U/CAD dollar weakness and CAD data has been positive. There's a barrier at 1.070 don't know how long this will hold. I am watching N/U have closed the fresh longs near the top. E/A will depend if more going to Aussie but it looks that way atm Re Gold, avoid staring at hourly chart then you'll be fine.
Yh expecting a pullback from NU and Gold doesn't worry me too much, watching 1310.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,844
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:21am Jun 26, 2014 2:21am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 1. If you look at it as risk-off then it's true the price will decrease but it has nothing to do with stock due to GDP #. Only NFP# has potential to affect Crude price in the past. 2. In the sense of Risk-off global risk aversion, you can say that but this is not the case. 3. Look at it as USD weakness/strength to fluctuate A/U rate and to fill orders. In brief, my personal opinion, you'll have to read last FOMC statement and get in sync with the markets expectation. From last FOMC statement, everyone knows when and where FED is going to...
I went offline before receiving your reply last night but thanks for your reply Ken.

Do you think that a rate decrease from the RBA would have a huge impact or is that just some wishful thinking by Australian manufacturers (the few who are left)? the difference in rates between US and AUS is still significant in the eyes of some
  • #80,845
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:25am Jun 26, 2014 2:25am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} I went offline before receiving your reply last night but thanks for your reply Ken.

Do you think that a rate decrease from the RBA would have a huge impact or is that just some wishful thinking by Australian manufacturers (the few who are left)?

the difference in rates between US and AUS is still significant in the eyes of some
No, I don't think rate decrease will have impact in the long term to A/U rate. Think of it as safe haven with good yields, I will park some money in AUD good yields no political unrest - safety first.

Have a look at NZD why having huge amount rushing in.
  • #80,846
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:33am Jun 26, 2014 2:33am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No, I don't think rate decrease will have impact in the long term to A/U rate. Think of it as safe haven with good yields, I will park some money in AUD good yields no political unrest - safety first. Have a look at NZD why having huge amount rushing in.
gotta go out now but looks this is the second closet NZD has come to parity with the AUD since deregulation their interest rate just gone up and our may still go down.
  • #80,847
  • Jun 26, 2014 2:33am Jun 26, 2014 2:33am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Just to make sure I understand your question correctly and will try my best to answer you; Could you please mark on the chart where this S/R and date and time to relate to the data release but IIRC, China PMI was last week? {image}
Thanks Ken.

The demand zone I marked based on what this guy said
Inserted Video


Specifically, we are supposed to look at the point where the money entered the market which, I thought, I got right on the 5m chart. Bear in mind that if we take away the right half of the picture, it looked like we had a nice new fresh demand zone. However, when the market came back it really didn't care about it at all. Is that common with zones created around news events?
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  • #80,848
  • Edited 3:14am Jun 26, 2014 2:56am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting TheMadMonk
{quote} Thanks Ken.

The demand zone I marked based on what this guy said http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmajZhaKjSE

Specifically, we are supposed to look at the point where the money entered the market which, I thought, I got right on the 5m chart.

Bear in mind that if we take away the right half of the picture, it looked like we had a nice new fresh demand zone. However, when the market came back it really didn't care about it at all. Is that common with zones created around news events? {image}
Quote
To the question....

I went long last night at 93934, thinking we were bouncing off an S/R I'd drawn in at 9390.

We'd also shown a bit of demand a day or so ago at that level when the price shot up on Chinese PMI data.

As it turns out, the real demand level appears to have been around 9360 and that's where price turned. (Pretty pleased with myself for holding on until we retested the .618 fib up at 9410. Jumped out for a small profit there while I re-assess)...

OK I think I understand now.

You went long on Friday at .93934 based on the Demand line that money going in at that point of time. But price broke this demand line by selling pressure and retested and became resistance and closed at .93885 on my feed. Previous support became resistance based on M5 chart.

Looking back further to the left, you can see the real support on H1 is .93796 so yes your long entry was a little premature. Better confirm previous support/resistance with at least H1 or H4 if you are day trading.

If you mean gap down from Friday closing price, no, that's the gap from broker feed not because of coming China PMI.

Edit: Support zone is blue box pointed by red arrow on H1.
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  • #80,849
  • Jun 26, 2014 3:20am Jun 26, 2014 3:20am
Thanks again Ken.

Yeah the gap down is the start of the week and I have the same gap. The PMI print was Monday morning (Asia) and I jumped in on Tuesday night at the first re-test.

You are right that it was an intra-day play. From memory it was off a 15 minute candle and so am starting to answer my own question here.

Also thinking that maybe the spike up on monday morning was also a low liquidity move? It was monday morning session in Asia so that might be a factor.
  • #80,850
  • Jun 26, 2014 3:36am Jun 26, 2014 3:36am
The spike not because low liquidity but because of better than expected China PMI. Aussie being China trading partner, good for China is good for Kangaroo.

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  • #80,851
  • Jun 26, 2014 4:08am Jun 26, 2014 4:08am
Built my sell position and it's looking good.
Not afraid of price "1.0000", but "0.8500" would be better - got all my aud buys closed in profit this year .
Selling NZD too and feeling okay about it.
I wish profits and successful trading to all.
  • #80,852
  • Jun 26, 2014 4:12am Jun 26, 2014 4:12am
I have a lot of people tell me that BO's from TL's don't apply to longer term charts ie daily/weekly/monthly. I thought I would post this as I have followed (and posted) the progress of the NU weekly BO.

This is the most typical BO and the behavior of PA is text book. It broke out, pulled back to the BO TL and then continued on to a HH (I think it's still about 3 pips short of a HH )
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,853
  • Jun 26, 2014 5:05am Jun 26, 2014 5:05am
Quoting tashkent
when trading audusd watch out for gold and silver prices for a hint, the pair usually follows them.
what is relation between gold and audusd? i mean directly proportional or inversely proportional.

thank you in advance.
  • #80,854
  • Jun 26, 2014 5:11am Jun 26, 2014 5:11am
Quoting Ken A
The spike not because low liquidity but because of better than expected China PMI. Aussie being China trading partner, good for China is good for Kangaroo. {image}
Yep. And the first time they exceeded the estimate for that report all year too. It all added up to me thinking that the price would hold on first return. Ah well... Looking back at the trade, there were other reasons I should have stayed out too. I've got supply zones too close on the top side and it really was a sustained move down in the end.

Anyways... thanks for your point of view
  • #80,855
  • Jun 26, 2014 5:22am Jun 26, 2014 5:22am
Quoting turk1
{quote} what is relation between gold and audusd? i mean directly proportional or inversely proportional. thank you in advance.
while watching a bit of both there seems to be little correlation now.

AUS is the second largest gold producer in the world but Gold accounts for less than 1% of AUS GDP
  • #80,856
  • Jun 26, 2014 5:22am Jun 26, 2014 5:22am
Quoting turk1
{quote} what is relation between gold and audusd? i mean directly proportional or inversely proportional. thank you in advance.
Call me cynical but I think it depends on what just happened.

If the two moved in the same direction together, it is because AUD relies heavily on its mining sector and because the country is a big exporter of Gold.

If the two move in opposite directions it is because AUD is considered a risky currency and gold is a safe haven (not that you can have a dangerous haven, but there you go)
  • #80,857
  • Jun 26, 2014 7:06am Jun 26, 2014 7:06am
if she's coming back for a slam, before going north, will it be door 1, 2, 3, 4? will usually dunk back into a demand zone, then rocket out..
my advice, wait to see what it does, and after death bar closes(if there is one), that bar will most likely be a new demand bar...just like the bottom blue rectangle
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  • #80,858
  • Jun 26, 2014 7:19am Jun 26, 2014 7:19am
Quoting turk1
{quote} what is relation between gold and audusd? i mean directly proportional or inversely proportional. thank you in advance.
SB253 and TMM are right, gold and AUD have positive correlation. Refere to this article for more info:
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...relations.html
As Above, So Below
  • #80,859
  • Jun 26, 2014 7:22am Jun 26, 2014 7:22am
Quoting nealpek
if she's coming back for a slam, before going north, will it be door 1, 2, 3, 4? will usually dunk back into a demand zone, then rocket out.. my advice, wait to see what it does, and after death bar closes(if there is one), that bar will most likely be a new demand bar...just like the bottom blue rectangle {image}
If it drops heavy from this level the trend will turn imo. It can be seen on the chart you posted. It's a H&S with a lower right shoulder and a previous LL. With news it's hard to follow a pattern though....

In 10 min we will know more.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,860
  • Jun 26, 2014 7:23am Jun 26, 2014 7:23am
just for fun, a little more context...
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