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AUD/USD

  • #80,641
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:06pm Jun 24, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You welcome There is a beautiful chapter on forgiveness We should not punish ourselves for mistakes (I made plenty this month) but learn from them.We often beat ourselves and think loss as failure when in fact losing is business by product just as same as winning. I ride sport motorcycle for fun and one thing they teach in racing schools never to look at the object you are trying not to hit but instead look at exit. Staring at object almost always ends up hitting it. In trading focusing fixating on a loss in vivid mental picture creates...
If there was a like button I would like it. Thank You. Reading it
  • #80,642
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:07pm Jun 24, 2014 11:07pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} My E/A, E/N shorts and U/N longs are depreciating but still far from entry points so just wait for another cycle. Other than those trades the rest are doing fine. Got couple S/O on E/A shorts yesterday. Annoying for being wrong. Oh well, ...
Yeah we'll see how it goes...
I've got R1 on E/A @ 1.45605 and it looks pretty strong, if that helps..
Shame about yesterday..
Good luck
  • #80,643
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:08pm Jun 24, 2014 11:08pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No Matts, it's the carry unwinding. Check your news feed around the time of German IFO and massive inflow to EUR. That includes EUR/NZD and direct impact to USD/NZD.
I will bow to your knowledge on these things Ken. As I have stated many times previously my fundies are seriously lacking and my opinions on these things are guess's more than anything. I ride with technical's and if more than one reason for a trade can be found then chances are increased.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,644
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:15pm Jun 24, 2014 11:15pm
time for some haagan daz, vanilla bean...sorry haagen dazs
  • #80,645
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:15pm Jun 24, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I will bow to your knowledge on these things Ken. As I have stated many times previously my fundies are seriously lacking and my opinions on these things are guess's more than anything. I ride with technical's and if more than one reason for a trade can be found then chances are increased.
I make mistakes too. Was expecting A/U to take out buy stops at the red zone before heading down but things happened sooner than expected. Can't stay up 24 hours to follow all the events.

So without "..." to cause massive inflows/outflows or change current sentiment, not expecting drastic change to A/U.

H1
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  • #80,646
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:25pm Jun 24, 2014 11:25pm
JPY is a safe trade if you are not looking for big pips. Can see clearly upper and lower levels.

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  • #80,647
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:30pm Jun 24, 2014 11:30pm
Hi guys. A/NZ looks like a short to me.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #80,648
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:47pm Jun 24, 2014 11:47pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} This is priceless. Thanks Davit. I have been trading for many years but yet very weak in managing risk. My SL are basically major SR lines which sometimes are too huge. Any further recommended reading on managing risk?
Hi Ssm
I took lot of ideas from different traders, books and formulated into my trading plan.
I can share what I do on risk control.
My SL is money allocated for a trade say 200 for example and it could be 20 or 1k.Does not matter important fact is it should be roughly 1-2% of your equity.
I divide my 200 budget into 2 mini lots which combine gives about 400pips on 50:1 standard leverage
But you can divide in 3 giving you 600pips distance.
You enter a trade on 1 mini lot and assuming and gradually add (average in)more lots until all lots are entered.Your SL is budget 200.If price reaches 200 then you take the loss.Remember since you gradually add say every 50pips it will take lot to reach your SL.
I have not lost single budget last 6months and hit 80 and above winning rate.
What I like about averaging is this.
Should you enter a trade and something changes say example Carney opens his mouth and trade goes against you then you exit with minial loss since not all your lots were entered.
This way you eliminate spikes and not worry about getting taken out.
There is lot more then this but this is what I do.I trade without hard stop but do have SL.
Important that you don't martingale.We are not gambling but trading.Having said this I like the idea of placing bigger lots on top then bottom.My best trades are my biggest lots.So it does not matter how you allocate your lots as long as your SL is predefined.

Some suggestions on reading material
Trading books
1.All Market Wizards books by JACK D. SCHWAGER (This is to open your eyes what is possible in Trading)
2.REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR (Read it twice 2nd time got lot more out of it)
3.Harmonic Trader by Scott Carney (anything by him)
4.Bird watching in Lion Country by Dirk du Toit (implemented lots of ideas from him)
5.Trading in the Zone (classic on psychology of trading)
6.Van Tharp - Super Trader (Even if you absorb 20% of the book you’l improve by huge margin)
7.A.J. Frost, Robert Prechter - Elliott Wave Theory (must read)

Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #80,649
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:49pm Jun 24, 2014 11:49pm
AU is now in my previously mentioned supply zone but after 5 4hr bear candles and possibly a sixth to close this hour, exhaustion may become a factor. The bears maybe taking over however. I will be watching .9330 and then .9300 for the next areas of support.

I have being watching UJ too and imo a BO should be on its way with a neutral wedge forming since last Monday.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,650
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:54pm Jun 24, 2014 11:54pm
Ok guys have a look..

There's a weekly trendline that's about to come into play currently sitting around 0.9315
Also RSI (8) looks like it's about to break it's ascending TL.. this could signal momentum is picking up to the downside.
If momentum does increase the weekly trendline could be broken.

You can see by this chart how much this scenario could damage the aussie
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  • #80,651
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:54pm Jun 24, 2014 11:54pm
Careful Matts, trading JPY ranges are fine but calling few hundred pips move will need more than technical.
  • #80,652
  • Jun 25, 2014 12:00am Jun 25, 2014 12:00am
Quoting Ken A
Careful Matts, trading JPY ranges are fine but calling few hundred pips move will need more than technical.
In the shorter term wedge pattern I'd only expect 60-70 reliable pips but there is a long term view too. That's where my dumb money comes into it. If it breaks I will follow
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,653
  • Jun 25, 2014 12:02am Jun 25, 2014 12:02am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} In the shorter term wedge pattern I'd only expect 60-70 reliable pips but there is a long term view too. That's where my dumb money comes into it. If it breaks I will follow
You trade spots or futures for JPY? Spots and futures the price is -1 correlated. Long spots is short futures.
  • #80,654
  • Jun 25, 2014 12:04am Jun 25, 2014 12:04am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 1 0 2 . 2 0 i s a s t r u g g l e
y e s i t is f o r s u r e
I n e e d c o f f e e
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,655
  • Jun 25, 2014 12:08am Jun 25, 2014 12:08am
No, I don't trade spots or futures.

I am wondering if the double top on EA may be the turning point.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,656
  • Edited 12:24am Jun 25, 2014 12:10am | Edited 12:24am
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} Shnorhagal davit!
Take trading psychology seriously and work on it.
Everyone is a winner on demo but in real trading most fail.This is because we are dealing with fear and greed and traditional upbringing that losing equals failing.In trading losing is necessary to become a winner.This is huge paradigm shift from any other occupation.
You consciously must unbrainwashed yourself to accept loss as business as usual.Easier said then done.How many here moved their SL thinking price may go back and moved again and again and then finally forced out with 40-80% loss.Its pretty typical.
Trick is to be comfortable with loss.One of the traders I admire most is Richard Donchian father of trend following and he took huge portion of his trades as losses but still made millions.His channel breakout is still practiced today.He basically assumed every BO could be runner and took most and if they were losers then he cut them quick.
This is why psychology comes 1st and system later because you must be able to handle trading situation with calm,sound reasoning.
Anyway read 30-1hr every night and it will have an effect.
Regards

As a suggestion buy Kindle paperwhite one of the best e readers out there with long battery and advanced lighting design easy on the eyes.
Download Caliber free app
Search PDF on Google download and convert to mobi file using caliber and upload to kindle and you can read at night with lights off and take your library everywhere.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #80,657
  • Jun 25, 2014 12:33am Jun 25, 2014 12:33am
audchf daily bo of the daily rising wedge has me thinking this move down could be the beginning of a lt bear trend. I can't correlate it with any other BO's so far but EA is hovering at the zone as is GA.....
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,658
  • Jun 25, 2014 12:59am Jun 25, 2014 12:59am
Quoting Matts Micro
No, I don't trade spots or futures. I am wondering if the double top on EA may be the turning point.
The day has not closed yet. IMO, wait for a day candle close to confirm.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #80,659
  • Jun 25, 2014 1:04am Jun 25, 2014 1:04am
Make or break .9350
  • #80,660
  • Jun 25, 2014 1:15am Jun 25, 2014 1:15am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Take trading psychology seriously and work on it. Everyone is a winner on demo but in real trading most fail.This is because we are dealing with fear and greed and traditional upbringing that losing equals failing.In trading losing is necessary to become a winner.This is huge paradigm shift from any other occupation. You consciously must unbrainwashed yourself to accept loss as business as usual.Easier said then done.How many here moved their SL thinking price may go back and moved again and again and then finally forced out with 40-80%...
thanks davit.

I can predict almost all directions and trends but don't stick around long enough to see me profit.
I need to risk less to allow me to walk away and I have been doing that lately.

I'm in the process of buying a tablet to put all my books on. I have 100 books on forex alone. You recommended other books for me as well in the past they will be the first I read.
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