NZD/USD

Quoting bayfisherman

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Looks like we are through the trendline...hold below this pivot we are on may get an extended move down {image}

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Quoting albchr

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{image}

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Quoting Nik13

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{quote} 0.8680 support is kind of broken. Isn't it?

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Quoting mahras

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Lets try this game again. Going short NU @ .8677. Stop at .8707. Target .8603. Burnt a lot of money being offsides on the AUD and NZD pairs this last few months. Lets see if this time any different.

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Quoting albchr

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{quote} 0.86745 is actually what needs to go. Looks like it will but.... {quote} Be careful, you're selling right on support. I do believe it will give but never can be sure. I've been holding this rack of swing trades since 6/12 .. ..lol {image}

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Quoting mahras

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{quote} Agreed although I viewed the support at .8680 level so shorted when I saw a break of that. Tell me about it. Lost a nice chunk of change fading the RBNZ induced rally although made a decent chunk back by flipping from long to short AUDNZD which got me back in the game. I find these elevated levels to not jive AT ALL with my fundamental view. In fact, I see NZDUSD levels at a <.84 area as a fair market level in the medium (1-2 month run) but I am not playing that game again where the RBNZ complains about high fx rates but does nothing but...

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Quoting albchr

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{quote} I'm fundamentally illiterate. Although the hike did run her up, no more than I expected really. But the time up there just sucks in swaps! ...lol One of the reasons why I hate shorting this pair. Although normally it's a tad faster. Kind of like the last swing high.

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Quoting Davit

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Almost all NZ dollar support is foreign investment(Japan,China mostly) because of "safe" perception and high carry over interest. NZ dollar I agree should be trading lot lower however by keep raising interest rates it does not help. I'l be gladly get out of my shorts even at BE since I believe we will see 88 and even 88.50 by July IR hike which is expected to occur.

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Quoting mahras

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{quote} I wouldn't be surprised to see 8800 but a decent amount of the rate hikes has been priced into this pair already. However, again critical to have a price and time stop. Saying this from being spanked by this pair (and AUD) in the past. In addition, even if we are on a real bull trend (my fundamental backdrop especially if a US short term rate widening does occur is a bearish one for this pair) a retracement of 150pips from a high which has failed multiple times (.8750 region) is a very regular one. You might get your BE just yet.

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Quoting Davit

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{quote} I made the error thinking IR hike was priced in at 8550 so started shorting early.Huge error on my part. I learned that nothing motivates buyers then interest rate hike even a statement by Carney pushed the pound over 150pips in 12hrs and this without actual IR hike. Not trying to scare you but be cautious.

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Quoting mahras

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{quote} Appreciate it. I got caught in that IR hike too and took a 90 pip hit on a fairly sizable position as I actually expected Wheeler to go the other way and be more dovish. Oh well...losses happen, its how we bounce back is what great trading records are made of.

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Quoting albchr

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{quote} ... Being a self employed custom builder/woodworker all my life, I used to tell my crew all the time. "It's not the severity of the mistake, but the quality of the recovery that matters".

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Quoting mahras

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{quote} Couldn't agree more. I have come back from some horrible drawdowns. Just a matter of grinding it out, learning what errors were made, and staying in the game.

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