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  • #501
  • Jun 24, 2014 4:40am Jun 24, 2014 4:40am
Quoting Vantage
And to give some comparison, gu breaks out both ways above and below immediate range. It does not have anything close to 'the look' of the flow (have I ever discussed how many charts I look at to try and get the feel of what a trade should actually look like?) that suggests a trade. USD and GBP have been close on CM (EUR just starting to come out stronger). All issues would say no trade to me. Not saying gbpusd won't become a trade but its one of those why force something if the good trades are around/coming. {image}
For me the best CCI 210 trends are when we are flowing nicely between 100 and 200. Not quickly hitting 200 and then dropping quickly below as we see on your GU chart example. That chart would a no trade for me also.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #502
  • Jun 24, 2014 4:44am Jun 24, 2014 4:44am
Quoting pres78
{quote} For me the best CCI 210 trends are when we are flowing nicely between 100 and 200. Not quickly hitting 200 and then dropping quickly below as we see on your GU chart example. That chart would a no trade for me also.
If I was looking at GU it would have been around 1.7020, not after the big drop. But it certainly wasn't the best looking chart at the time.
  • #503
  • Jun 24, 2014 4:45am Jun 24, 2014 4:45am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote}The actual buy signal on a CCI is crossing from below -100 to above it and the actual sell signal is moving from above +100 below it if you want a more cautious entry then use the zero line cross instead. , imagine if you risked say 1 % per pip and stops were on average 5 pips so 5% (risk whatever suits you) then this one move with those entries could be a 100% trade in just over 3 hours, small risk large RR.
Yes I understand (have done loads of reading on it) how the CCI is intended to work and also people's variations over history on how they have made it work. For me I am still in the testing stages for how to make it work for me.

Do you need 100% in a day? The problem is when you have a good day your golden... an off day and you lose everything you made the day before. Why do you feel the need to trade 1% a pip? Not here to judge just trying to understand your trade plan.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #504
  • Jun 24, 2014 5:40am Jun 24, 2014 5:40am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes I understand (have done loads of reading on it) how the CCI is intended to work and also people's variations over history on how they have made it work. For me I am still in the testing stages for how to make it work for me. Do you need 100% in a day? The problem is when you have a good day your golden... an off day and you lose everything you made the day before. Why do you feel the need to trade 1% a pip? Not here to judge just trying to understand your trade plan.
Hi pres78

No problems with your questions and by all means question my trading plan, it certainly needs it!!

If I had a winning edge and could practically trade it then I feel it matters little what % of account you trade across your stops as long as its a % of your outstanding balance because as long as you have an edge it will make money no matter what the % risked. However the bit missing from my plan at mo is the "edge" thats why my explorer is getting hurt not becos of the % I risk. The % risk just determines how fast you lose or win not whether you lose or win, just need that edge and it all works fine.

Just need to trade my plan in practice going forward thats where I am suffering right now, totally lack of discipline and patience, thats my issue, but I will get there, don't worry I will get there just a matter of time and practice.

By the way my good friend Ted has recently introduced me to the strategy tester so spending a lot of time on there at mo honing my trading skills, saves me hours trading live and god knows how much money. Good old Ted.

As for the CCI yes you are quite right it was designed to show a strong trend when trading over the 100 levels so above +100 its a strong up trend and below -100 level its a strong down trend. By definition then we can assume that when it crosses these levels its possible the strong trend is coming to an end so what will happen next if thats true??? Yep it will start to trend the other way, generally because the guys that were trading it up and causing that strong up trend need to bank to consolidate thier profits so they're selling from that strong trend. Stands to reason then if heavy banking continues a downtrend will develop.

Thats why I see a cross of those levels as an early warning that a trend reversal is about to happen.I use the 15min CCI for my trade direction so when its moving from -100 level across to the +100 level I'm looking for those 1 min cci entries in that direction.

But its only a early warning or first filter then look to the 1 min price action to confirm that reversal with it taking out the last HH and then watch for first LH 14 cci crossing down +100 level and thats our entry get to BE quickly just in case strong uptrend resumes. If however we have got it right then we are right in at the start of the new downtrend.

By the way if that 15 min CCI turn down was a LH on the 15 min chart then there's a great chance to catch a very high RR trade.I also feel its very important to catch these 1 min turns as early as possible otherwise price will come back and take you out at BE every time. The earliest time for me is when 1 min CCI first crosses those opposite 100 levels. The problem I see with your entry on the otherside, although much safer, is if you try to hold at BE more often than not you get stopped out. Its all part of my argument that pullback entries are better than breakouts as even succesful breakouts if you go to BE quickly get taking out by the customary retest of the break whereas the pullback entry if piont B gets broken has that old resistance level to protect my BE stop.I like going to BE quickly to protect my capital asap, believe it or not,(you wouldn't think so looking at my trade explorer would you???) so the earlier we can enter in the pullback at piont C the better and if we have a strong trend then point B should breakout and put another level of support between our BE entry stop and price.

Just my thoughts on the whole theory of trading , protect your capital at earliest opportunity,with your stop at BE behind some sort of support or resistance level.

Thanks again for your posts here they are very useful and hopefully helping anyone who wants to trade 1 min charts with some success.

Like you quite rightly point out if you wait for the 210 CCI to be above or below the 100 levels which means its trending strongly. Then take pullback entries on the 1 min in same direction it should work more often than not. For me its all about only trading strong trending pairs not matter what timeframe you want to trade, just trade with the trend on the strongest trenders.

I know what to do just can't do it live. major patience and discipline issues for me, but |I'll get there one way or another.

Cheers Clive.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #505
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:03am Jun 24, 2014 6:03am
Hi Clive

Playing devils advocate here. You are going to great lengths to say cci above +100 or below -100 is the trend definition. But then you say you are looking at moves within the band for change of trend. I feel at the moment that for every chart you can show where it works I can show you a chart where it doesn't. Maybe I'm not 'seeing' things the way you are. Or in terms of the charts you posted earlier it was in any event a trade in terms of the rules recently put forward. For example cci 210 below -100 so focus on sells, cci goes above -100 so you are looking at early buy warning. Two problems many of those early warnings are preludes to further sells which you might miss. By the time a buy does come cci 210 crossed to +100 it would be a buy in terms of the rules in any event, so why worry about the early warning.

I cannot help get the feeling that you are still looking for some method that will capture everything on 1 min. If you are then I don't think cci will be your answer. For the trend as we have been showing for a few weeks now yes, but CT? Probably a better idea would be straight CT ABC at proven SR levels etc.

I'll come back to the point made previously, focus on making one thing work before branching off onto something else.
  • #506
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:18am Jun 24, 2014 6:18am
HI Clive

Looking at your trades today and the idea that 1st trade is the best. Then comparing them to the charts I posted. Your entries are all after sizeable runs and not the 1st/2nd LH/HL in move, the charts I posted the trades are coming up 15 pips or so into the move not 50/60 pips into the move.

If you've missed the first two trades with the ticks, the move with the x is chasing a little too much.
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  • #507
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:27am Jun 24, 2014 6:27am
Quoting Vantage
HI Clive Looking at your trades today and the idea that 1st trade is the best. Then comparing them to the charts I posted. Your entries are all after sizeable runs and not the 1st/2nd LH/HL in move, the charts I posted the trades are coming up 15 pips or so into the move not 50/60 pips into the move. If you've missed the first two trades with the ticks, the move with the x is chasing a little too much. {image}
Remember what we discussed earlier, if in and around LO there has been a quick 50-70 pip move that's likely it until US session. Or when discussing 5 min charts the 3rd HL/LH in move was high risk. Both concepts apply to your failed trades today. Your losses are not failure of system but application.

Here's another 1 min gem, wait 20 mins and try again. Thks Islander. That's 20 mins for the wave. If 1 min has paused normally will only go again after a few mins in the rarest of strong moves, they are the exception not the norm.
  • #508
  • Jun 24, 2014 6:51am Jun 24, 2014 6:51am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} If I had a winning edge and could practically trade it then I feel it matters little what % of account you trade across your stops as long as its a % of your outstanding balance because as long as you have an edge it will make money no matter what the % risked. However the bit missing from my plan at mo is the "edge" thats why my explorer is getting hurt not becos of the % I risk. The % risk just determines how fast you lose or win not whether you lose or win, just need that edge and it all works fine.
Clive,

Please take a look at this risk of ruin table from Chris Capre's website.

http://2ndskiesforex.com/forex-tradi...u-should-know/

As you can see risking 10% per trade you need to win 70% at 1:1 or 65% at 2:1 to remove your risk of blowing your account. Do you feel your edge if traded perfectly will give you this? I mean if you only have a 55% win rate you need 5:1 on ALL your wins to have a 0% risk of ruin. That for me is stacking the odds against me and a tad too much pressure. Look at dropping to just 5% per trade. Now you can trade forever with no risk of ruin just winning 50% at 2:1 (15% less than where it was 10% risk per trade).

2% risk per trade and a 2:1 rate on your wins and you can trade forever with a 40% win rate.

Anyway just something to think about (not here to change anyone's minds). As this table shows though regardless of what % you risk per trade going for better than 1:1 on your wins is a big key as it allows you to survive with a less than stellar win % for those days when you just aren't quite in sync with the market.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #509
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:03am Jun 24, 2014 7:03am
Quoting Vantage
HI Clive Looking at your trades today and the idea that 1st trade is the best. Then comparing them to the charts I posted. Your entries are all after sizeable runs and not the 1st/2nd LH/HL in move, the charts I posted the trades are coming up 15 pips or so into the move not 50/60 pips into the move. If you've missed the first two trades with the ticks, the move with the x is chasing a little too much. {image}
Hi Mr V.

Sorry they were nothing trades just playing with my Demo account like I normally do just trying to post news trade for a bit of fun really as news seemed to throw things around a bit. Always play around with my demo but forgot its on my trade explorer now for all to see. Sorry about the confusion there.

Don't worry I am still with you and nothing has really changed, my goal is the same to get high RR trades with small risk and long runs thats why I trade 1 min I am not really a scalper. Rather I am a trend trader hoping to catch the 1 min trends that sometimes set up on market opens. So anything I talk about is aimed at that goal, making my winners bigger than my losers.

What I was discussing above about catching the 15 min CCI turn early and entering on 1 min is aimed at getting in earlier in the trend. To be honest I started trying to achieve that after reading your first page on your HHHL thread many moons ago, as makes perfect sense to me.

"The original idea behind this thread, a good trader said to me that the first retracement is the best trade"

So its all your fault!!!

But seriously thats what I am trying to do identify when the 15 min CCI turns then jump on the 1 min turns in that direction and hold on 1 min trend. I thinkyou will agree it works best after a sustained drive one way or the other?? Then just take the reversal and away you go.

Also noticed how one market session sends a pair one way then the next session sends it the other so could work really well if we catch a 15min CCI turn back with the daily trend, couldn't it???

Anyway lets keep going getting closer everyday to my goal.

Thanks again for all your posts, awesome.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #510
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:09am Jun 24, 2014 7:09am
Cheers Clive not my fault, his fault, the guy that said it to me that is!!
  • #511
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:12am Jun 24, 2014 7:12am
OK Clive I hear what you say about demo but never been a fan of that. Trade demo as you would live otherwise how will you know whats working. Anyway that gbpchf chart 4 or 5 posts back says it all and 1 visual can capture the do's and don'ts.
  • #512
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:25am Jun 24, 2014 7:25am
By the way just taken an entry on exactly that idea of catching a reversal early as London has traded EURAUD up now lets see if New York wants to play ball and trade it back down again? Hope so, but it seems to be struggling a bit to go down so time will tell.

Nice little entry first LH and 10 pip stop up behind yesterdays high plus I would say this is back with the daily trend wouldn't you??? Also in its favour its trading the strongest AUD against the weakest EUR on daily chart. Could be good if it comes off???

Well I guess its got 2 chances.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #513
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:28am Jun 24, 2014 7:28am
Quoting clivepackham
By the way just taken an entry on exactly that idea of catching a reversal early as London has traded EURAUD up now lets see if New York wants to play ball and trade it back down again? Hope so, but it seems to be struggling a bit to go down so time will tell. Nice little entry first LH and 10 pip stop up behind yesterdays high plus I would say this is back with the daily trend wouldn't you??? Also in its favour its trading the strongest AUD against the weakest EUR on daily chart. Could be good if it comes off??? Well I guess its got 2 chances....
Bet there's a lot of guys rushing to buy EURAUD now, you there Danny???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #514
  • Jun 24, 2014 7:49am Jun 24, 2014 7:49am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Bet there's a lot of guys rushing to buy EURAUD now, you there Danny???
Seriously Clive, the practice is to do what your system says to do not what you think the market will do, else you don't do anything until your system says to do what you think the market wants to do. I'm thinking that's when you will finally turn things around, I'm thinking you haven't been following your own rules all this while like right now when your chart is saying "Buys only"
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #515
  • Jun 24, 2014 8:25am Jun 24, 2014 8:25am
Quoting clivepackham
By the way just taken an entry on exactly that idea of catching a reversal early as London has traded EURAUD up now lets see if New York wants to play ball and trade it back down again? Hope so, but it seems to be struggling a bit to go down so time will tell. Nice little entry first LH and 10 pip stop up behind yesterdays high plus I would say this is back with the daily trend wouldn't you??? Also in its favour its trading the strongest AUD against the weakest EUR on daily chart. Could be good if it comes off??? Well I guess its got 2 chances....
Stop trying to pick tops and bottoms. Stop trying to predict market reversals. Wait for the trend CCI to be "in trend" and trade the first one or two CCI 14 retraces in that trend. Just because the trend CCI drops below +100 doesn't mean it's time to sell (regardless of what the CCI is supposed to do, on higher TF's that may work but not on the 1 minute). We need to see an established trend.

You sold after the trend CCI dropped below +100 but we had also just printed a HL and a HH and the MA's were a close together with no seperation, yes they had crossed. We hadn't just rejected off 4500 which for me more says we are seeing a retrace for steam to gather longs to take out the BRN.

Get good at trading the trend entries as laid out by Van before getting into picking trend reversals.

You are trying to catch a runner, get in on the 1 minute chart and hold for days making hundreds of pips off a 10 pip SL. You need to squash that dream right now before you go any further and lose anymore money. Every day trading with the CCI trend there are entries where you can safely get 2,3,4,5:1 and more. Smaller than 10 pip SL's and easy grabs for 30,40 and 50 pips. All easy and stress free with the trend.

I showed an example yesterday where a trade hit 19:1, same day not holding a 1 minute entry trying to ride a daily trend. This system has promise Clive, you just need to hunker down and follow it.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #516
  • Jun 24, 2014 8:49am Jun 24, 2014 8:49am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Stop trying to pick tops and bottoms. Stop trying to predict market reversals. Wait for the trend CCI to be "in trend" and trade the first one or two CCI 14 retraces in that trend. Just because the trend CCI drops below +100 doesn't mean it's time to sell (regardless of what the CCI is supposed to do, on higher TF's that may work but not on the 1 minute). We need to see an established trend. You sold after the trend CCI dropped below +100 but we had also just printed a HL and a HH and the MA's were a close together with no seperation,...
This is the medicine you need to take like a man Clive!
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #517
  • Jun 24, 2014 9:02am Jun 24, 2014 9:02am
Quoting Intrepidpips
{quote} Seriously Clive, the practice is to do what your system says to do not what you think the market will do, else you don't do anything until your system says to do what you think the market wants to do. I'm thinking that's when you will finally turn things around, I'm thinking you haven't been following your own rules all this while like right now when your chart is saying "Buys only"
Thanks Intrepidpips and Pres78

Yep guess you're both right but it was a great sell setup on the hourly chart and the daily chart with yesterdays high there. Why it was even back in the direction of the strongest AUD and the weakest EUR daily pair there is. Oh and don't forget the 15 min CCI turning down , it could so easily of been a great sell set up on all those higher timeframes, but you know what ?? It didn't did it??

Nope it just kept right on going!!! Smashed its way through the lot!!!

Do you know what guys, bottom line?? I think its about the power of that 1 min chart, everyone keeps telling me to look at higher timeframes, you've got to look at whats happening above , look at hrly support resistance, supply, demand etc etc yet that little old 1 min just keeps right on going, doesn't give a monkeys **** whats in its way it just keeps right on going. Ploughs its way through anything in its path.

Guess thats because its the money, right there, the money sending that price straight up the page, like I say its all about the money!!

Why did it go up against the daily strongest/weakest?? Well EURAUD's been going down last six months thats why its the strongest/weakest so I bet theres a lot of professional traders holding some pretty serious positions right now and guess what ?? Six month bonuses!!! Gotta bank thier profits or they won't get that nice big shiny Porshe.

Anyway doesn't matter why does it, just matters that it is happening. Price follows the money for whatever reason it just follows the money.

Right thats it for me, I am going to say it loud and say it proud, I am a 1 minute man through and through and thats it!!!

Never ever mention higher timeframes on this thread ever again or you will be banned instantly!!! (Apart from you of course Mr V.)

I am going to trade the 1 minute trend until it ends and thats it!!! End of story!!! If it ain't trending on the 1 min I'm not trading!!

Yep thats it I'm a stand alone 1 minute man. Job done nothing more to be said.

Oh just one more thing, some food for thought for all those long term traders reading this and saying to themselves " Now we're really gonna see a disaster, 1 minute on its own?? No way Hose!! Its been bad enough up to now but now we're really gonna see some shite trading, !!"

Well let me ask all you long term traders a question, what percentage of retail traders trade 5 min charts and above would you say???

Now let me ask you another question, what is the percentage of retail traders that lose???

Hmmmm food for thought isn't it????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #518
  • Jun 24, 2014 1:48pm Jun 24, 2014 1:48pm
Hi Clive

I think we are making some progress. You are going to trade trend so I hope that means the early warning cci210 retrace within -100 +100 band is gone?

For what its worth the 1 min chart didn't push euraud higher, price pushed higher (turned out to be a nice 85/15 trade after US open).

For what its worth 2 - The last time euraud was in the 1.4500 area it took 1,800+ minutes to move lower (NB No mention of HTF's).
  • #519
  • Jun 24, 2014 1:50pm Jun 24, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Stop trying to pick tops and bottoms. Stop trying to predict market reversals. Wait for the trend CCI to be "in trend" and trade the first one or two CCI 14 retraces in that trend. Just because the trend CCI drops below +100 doesn't mean it's time to sell (regardless of what the CCI is supposed to do, on higher TF's that may work but not on the 1 minute). We need to see an established trend. You sold after the trend CCI dropped below +100 but we had also just printed a HL and a HH and the MA's were a close together with no seperation,...
Hi pres78 and Mr V.

Wise words my friends, just need to manage my own expectations and just trade the trend as it sets up , just like you say, nothing else and just take what the market gives me on that move and that move alone.

Will do as from tomoz no more chasing wild dreams.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #520
  • Jun 24, 2014 2:11pm Jun 24, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi pres78 and Mr V. Wise words my friends, just need to manage my own expectations and just trade the trend as it sets up , just like you say, nothing else and just take what the market gives me on that move and that move alone. Will do as from tomoz no more chasing wild dreams.
Fair enough. Stick to rules for 30 trading days, that should create a habit. Critically assess all trades for compliance, (none system winning trades might set you off on another tangent) losing system trades get extra attention (eg time of day, length of run/4th/5th abc in run etc etc) to try and determine a pattern in failed losing trades.

I haven't seen anything yet to move me away from the short rules list posted a few times over the last few days.
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