Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #481
- Jun 23, 2014 11:34am Jun 23, 2014 11:34am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
- #483
- Jun 23, 2014 2:23pm Jun 23, 2014 2:23pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #485
- Edited 6:52pm Jun 23, 2014 5:37pm | Edited 6:52pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
A couple of nice test entries (NOTE THAT THIS IS TESTING ONLY - DO NOT FOLLOW THIS AS TRADE ADVICE) on GBPNZD after LO.
This is something I have been playing with to get in sooner on established trends. After NYO we had built a sustained CCI 210 trend. We are seeing CCI 14 divergence on the dips. My favorite is the 3 dips that occur at my 2 white lines which are where I took paper trade test entries. Wrote them in my test journal as both worked out great. As you can see neither of the entries had the CCI 14 move all the way back to +100. The dip at the second entry was a 200 range move and as you can see came before the best move away. Both entries are tests down into the recently broken 9500 level.
Now Vantage has mentioned his move from -100 to +100 or a move that equates to 200 (-200 to 0 etc...) but what I have noticed in my testing is that in established CCI 210 trends if we dip on the CCI 210 either below +100 or even just a series of lower highs on the CCI readings and then come back up to print either a HH reading (if it was +99 and is now +105) (and also MUST be back above +100) then we can enter as long as the CCI 14 has come back above -100 and even if not above 0. By entering here with the trend CCI coming back from retrace into trend we can get in a little lower where waiting for CCI 14 above +100 we get in further away from the last swing low and MA.
Again this is still early testing days so... Also we need to be away of supply and demand zones (or support and resistance) and daily ranges etc... As with any method whether it uses indi's or not we need to understand PA and basic S&R etc...
Anyway still testing but results are good so far.
BTW SL for first white line was 6 pips, second white line 3 pips (+ dealing with spread at the time your trading)... Can you make some nice R:R off SL that small? Sure can.
This is something I have been playing with to get in sooner on established trends. After NYO we had built a sustained CCI 210 trend. We are seeing CCI 14 divergence on the dips. My favorite is the 3 dips that occur at my 2 white lines which are where I took paper trade test entries. Wrote them in my test journal as both worked out great. As you can see neither of the entries had the CCI 14 move all the way back to +100. The dip at the second entry was a 200 range move and as you can see came before the best move away. Both entries are tests down into the recently broken 9500 level.
Now Vantage has mentioned his move from -100 to +100 or a move that equates to 200 (-200 to 0 etc...) but what I have noticed in my testing is that in established CCI 210 trends if we dip on the CCI 210 either below +100 or even just a series of lower highs on the CCI readings and then come back up to print either a HH reading (if it was +99 and is now +105) (and also MUST be back above +100) then we can enter as long as the CCI 14 has come back above -100 and even if not above 0. By entering here with the trend CCI coming back from retrace into trend we can get in a little lower where waiting for CCI 14 above +100 we get in further away from the last swing low and MA.
Again this is still early testing days so... Also we need to be away of supply and demand zones (or support and resistance) and daily ranges etc... As with any method whether it uses indi's or not we need to understand PA and basic S&R etc...
Anyway still testing but results are good so far.
BTW SL for first white line was 6 pips, second white line 3 pips (+ dealing with spread at the time your trading)... Can you make some nice R:R off SL that small? Sure can.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #486
- Jun 23, 2014 5:49pm Jun 23, 2014 5:49pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Another example of what I just posted about. This as an early Asia trade last night. I got tired of waking up at LO just to see that we had already moved a ton in Asia so I decided to start testing so Asia trades also.
We had recently taken out the 8125 level and retraced. This was another example of a trade where the CCI 210 rose above -100 and the came back below while the CCI 14 dropped back below +100. Waiting on this trade for CCI 14 to hit -100 would have given an entry nearly as good so... all noted in my trade journal. Nice double divergence on the CCI 14 so as far as test entries go I was quite happy.
Second zoomed way out chart shows that the trade run full drop hit as much as 19:1... not too shabby.
We had recently taken out the 8125 level and retraced. This was another example of a trade where the CCI 210 rose above -100 and the came back below while the CCI 14 dropped back below +100. Waiting on this trade for CCI 14 to hit -100 would have given an entry nearly as good so... all noted in my trade journal. Nice double divergence on the CCI 14 so as far as test entries go I was quite happy.
Second zoomed way out chart shows that the trade run full drop hit as much as 19:1... not too shabby.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #488
- Jun 23, 2014 8:41pm Jun 23, 2014 8:41pm
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Poocher | 1,018 Posts
Oh dear, not quite going according to plan is it. Or maybe it is? Maybe Clive is a secret agent for the banks getting all the newbies to trade 1 minute charts and lose all their money? It makes me laugh either way, I knew you had no chance and never will. Just keep feeding your wages into the machine until they are all gone. After all that's where I get my income from. Sucker.
Gee, a blood sucking vampire. How repulsive.
- #489
- Jun 24, 2014 1:17am Jun 24, 2014 1:17am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Oh dear, not quite going according to plan is it. Or maybe it is? Maybe Clive is a secret agent for the banks getting all the newbies to trade 1 minute charts and lose all their money? It makes me laugh either way, I knew you had no chance and never will. Just keep feeding your wages into the machine until they are all gone. After all that's where I get my income from. Sucker.
All going perfectly to plan. gotta learn how to lose before you can win, right?? We learn more from our mistakes than we ever do getting it right apparently so on that basis alone, my learning curve is enormous!!!
Don't worry it will all work out in the end, you're see.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #492
- Edited 2:27am Jun 24, 2014 2:06am | Edited 2:27am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
A couple of nice test entries (NOTE THAT THIS IS TESTING ONLY - DO NOT FOLLOW THIS AS TRADE ADVICE) on GBPNZD after LO. This is something I have been playing with to get in sooner on established trends. After NYO we had built a sustained CCI 210 trend. We are seeing CCI 14 divergence on the dips. My favorite is the 3 dips that occur at my 2 white lines which are where I took paper trade test entries. Wrote them in my test journal as both worked out great. As you can see neither of the entries had the CCI 14 move all the way back to +100. The dip...
Good stuff. now I know I'm not exactly blasting a trail with my explorer, but I will, I will, so you might think why listen to you??? But here's my thoughts for what its worth.
The actual buy signal on a CCI is crossing from below -100 to above it and the actual sell signal is moving from above +100 below it if you want a more cautious entry then use the zero line cross instead.
The idea being that these are the dips and peaks in the move on the 14 cci while the 210 cci is the same on the 15 min timeframe.
The theory then is simple when the 15min (210) CCI has crossed up over the -100 look for the 1 min dips to enter and vice versa for the buys. Only thing is not to blindly buy these dips on the 1 min unless they are HLs or double bottoms and also before buying any HL make sure it is proceeded by a HH. The reverse applies to sells.
Using this we should get some very small stops like 5 to 10 pips with good RR. Because if we follow the 15min buy signal then its a 1 minute trend reversal so the RR should be very good as we are in at the start of the new uptrend, my backtesting has shown that after a good move one way or the other say 100 pips then fully expect the reversal to move 70% of that move.
Summary, look for strong moves one way to reverse hard after the 15 min reversal signal but need confirmation with the 1 minute price action eg HLHH.
Example attached yesterday, of course its easy to see looking backwards but not so easy going forward thats for sure.
This chart from yesterday shows the 15 min CCI buy signal followed by half a dozen or so 1 minute CCI buy signals with 15 min CCI trending nicely above +100 level. The 1 min CCI buys are either break and retests of 25 levels or retest of previous 1 minute support levels. This one actually is a 15 min CCI buy signal back with the trend as the move up went higher than the mornings move down.
This happens a lot after one session goes one way then the following session traders take it the other way, if first move is counter trend then expect the next move to be bigger than the first. Its all about the following session traders seeing the first counter trend move as an opportunity to buy back with the trend at a discount price.
Now here's the potential of this system , imagine if you risked say 1 % per pip and stops were on average 5 pips so 5% (risk whatever suits you) then this one move with those entries could be a 100% trade in just over 3 hours, small risk large RR.
Just gotta catch that 15 min reversal after a strong move over previous session. Sounds simple enough but Jesus its hard.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #494
- Jun 24, 2014 2:32am Jun 24, 2014 2:32am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
And to give some comparison, gu breaks out both ways above and below immediate range. It does not have anything close to 'the look' of the flow (have I ever discussed how many charts I look at to try and get the feel of what a trade should actually look like?) that suggests a trade. USD and GBP have been close on CM (EUR just starting to come out stronger). All issues would say no trade to me. Not saying gbpusd won't become a trade but its one of those why force something if the good trades are around/coming. {image}
Yep I couldn't agree more with that sentiment, thats why I post example after example of what we are after as sooner or later you start to see it form as it happens rather than afterwards. After all they are so easy to see with hindsight aren't they???
Hey Ted hows that hindsight indicator going????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #497
- Jun 24, 2014 2:58am Jun 24, 2014 2:58am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Going to BE. I am still tinkering with this, its getting the balance between moving too quickly and getting stopped out at BE and giving the trade a little wiggle room. When I previously traded 1-5 min charts I allowed a move to say +10, then back to BE on closed candles and then if trade progressed properly when it got back to +10 would I move stop to BE or small +. Exits looking to target 15-50 ish depending on my view of D trend and where proven SR levels are, W pivots etc. With the above euraud chart I'd have been quite happy to exit...
I am a strong believer that all timeframes are the same and that price action is price action whether its 1 min or monthly the only extra consideration is cost of spread on 1 min.I honestly believe if you look at 1 mins with the same eyes you look at your 1 hour charts and treat them the same it will work well, just make allowance for spread costs.
Trouble is we tend to "believe" 1 mins are different from the higher timeframes but they are not. Of course the other problem with our beliefs system is that we only look for evidence to back up that belief and promptly ignore any evidence to the contrary, its just the way our human psychology works, we want to be right all the time.
So I would recommend to anyone look at 1 min charts as you would your favourite timeframe and look for the same trends, break and retests , support and resistance, supply and demand levels etc etc. Only look durring active market times and also only look at trending 1 min charts as discussed here. Either use 15 min CCI over 100 levels or the 100lwma must be sloping. Use my top 8 trenders indy and only ever trade top 4. Pay attention to price action HHHLs etc and you're be fine.
Of course goes without saying to trade demo account only and also use the Strategy tester to forward test as many times as you like as an awesome training tool. You will soon develop a "feel" for price action, no better training in my opinion.Strong trending 1 minute charts present numerous opportunities all day long but it does take practice and hardwork to get it right as I am aptly proving here but don't give up on me as I am so close to winning, its just around the corner.
Just as soon as Ted finishes that hindsight indicator.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #499
- Jun 24, 2014 3:23am Jun 24, 2014 3:23am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
