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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #13,941
  • Jun 19, 2014 9:57pm Jun 19, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Many of them are a waste of time, but there are a few that you be able to recognise. The main ones being wedges, triangles, the much quoted but rare head and shoulder and reversals. Maybe someone else can suggest a couple of others. But never put your faith in any of them - all they're telling you is what 'might be' rather than what 'will be'.
This is very good advice and it is also one of the reasons why I don't think a trader should have to post charts in order to prove his point of view. Since this is a profession of "speculation" a trader needs many different technical details to "line up" in order for him to enter a trade.

Therefore, in order to make your case online you would need to spend hours not only saving charts but drawing on them and maybe even explaining technical analysis to newbies on the thread.

Life has questions Google has answers.

I AM STILL BULLISH TARGETING 176.146
  • #13,942
  • Edited Jun 20, 2014 1:32am Jun 19, 2014 11:22pm | Edited Jun 20, 2014 1:32am
Quoting Fx3422271
{quote} This is very good advice and it is also one of the reasons why I don't think a trader should have to post charts in order to prove his point of view. Since this is a profession of "speculation" a trader needs many different technical details to "line up" in order for him to enter a trade. Therefore, in order to make your case online you would need to spend hours not only saving charts but drawing on them and maybe even explaining technical analysis to newbies on the thread. Life has questions Google has answers. I AM STILL BULLISH TARGETING...

Any breakup from here would, I agree, run up to 176.1~5 (depending on how long it takes to get there).

Conversely, a fallback from here runs down to about 169.3/5 in a similar time frame and any consequent bounce from there only gets to about 175 again.

If called upon to post a chart showing how I came up with those numbers, I would end up spending triple the time just explaining my charting method. Yes, sometimes things are better explained with words.



Edit The breakup idea is really a continued break from a rising wedge. Now, it has already broken up since it departed 171.5 and retested at 170.9. Should it get to 176x, then that would possibly break as well.

The hold at 173.8 idea is that of of a triangle which still has some weeks to run and doesn't complete until a second retest around 169 ish, then a final drop to about 166x. (effectively retouching the top of the ichimoku cloud that it spent the last 18 months in and departed from 3 weeks ago).

Either way, unless the rules have changed, at some stage it returns to the 166/167 area.
  • #13,943
  • Jun 20, 2014 9:04am Jun 20, 2014 9:04am
Checking in with my 38 pip draw down on GBP/USD so far. The DOW is at a 6 week upward run and USD down with it. ISIS, oil prices and just ridiculous P/E ratios should trigger some USD strength next week. BOE earlier rate hike news is getting old and corny. Sold at 1.6986 with a TP of 1.6900. Making that transition to trade on H4 weekly swings now. Have a great weekend.

Oh, btw some fun 1 page reading on GBP according to Credit Suisse, love this site.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/24800/g...-credit-suisse
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #13,944
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:18pm Jun 20, 2014 12:18pm
Mpt, you explain very well! Been sitting on my hands the whole day, was tempted to try another long, but think at this stage it's risky. Waiting to see how it close and open Monday morning. To me, it looks like a break down soon.
  • #13,945
  • Jun 22, 2014 11:45pm Jun 22, 2014 11:45pm
Dang! This GBP/USD sell sucks! lost much of the profit from my previous trade on this and cut it. USD sucks because of Janet Yellen. Okay, back to the dragon. Sell order at the market at 173.64 initiated. I believe MPT, buyers are thinning out here.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #13,946
  • Jun 22, 2014 11:48pm Jun 22, 2014 11:48pm
You need to worry about break of 1.7065.

Read my post in gbpusd thread about long vs short
Intraday only.
  • #13,947
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:01am Jun 23, 2014 12:01am
Will do, I just need to get back to G/J. No patience for these slow major crosses.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #13,948
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:22am Jun 23, 2014 3:22am
So Trend is still up?
  • #13,949
  • Jun 23, 2014 4:35am Jun 23, 2014 4:35am
Quoting randomn00b
Hi everyone, I followed this Thread for a while and I cant help myself to ask if anyone knows about the methodology used by FX-Ray. I studied all his post the last 2-3 weeks and I can imagine what he did but I cant comprehend how he did see all those things. The post Im most curious about is this one: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post7269916 The first picture how he drawn it is amazing, I never seen something like this before, its still legal despite the elapsed time. I got many more question but I dont want to...
Can anyone help ?
  • #13,950
  • Edited 6:17am Jun 23, 2014 5:20am | Edited 6:17am
Quoting randomn00b
{quote} Can anyone help ?
Some people such as FX Ray use horizontal levels as indications of support and resistance. This is often valid, but in this case, the levels are sometimes NOT horizontal, but are derived from diagonal and OTHER methods. Horizontal levels work well on shorter time frames, but this pair has been in consolidation for more than six months and is, in some cases, reacting to resistances and supports that often started 2 years ago (or many more before that). This area has been a high resistance area since at least 1993!

Horizontal levels, as I said, work well on shorter time frames (like a few hours or days). Day traders make a big deal about double tops or bottoms, for example. However, when longer times are involved, such as weeks or years, the support or resistance is not often in the same place - if it's there at all. That's why I often say that res/supp is not always linear. IT MOVES.

Under 173.2/3 it drops again.

Above 173.8 it probably makes a new high.

Under 172.2 it's possibly good for 172.4/5 ish

Does that answer your question?
  • #13,951
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:32am Jun 23, 2014 5:32am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Some people such as FX Ray use horizontal levels as indications of support and resistance. This is often valid, but in this case, the levels are sometimes NOT horizontal, but are derived from diagonal and OTHER methods. Horizontal level work well on shorter time frames, but this pair has been in consolidation for more than six months and is reacting to resistances and supports that, in some cases, started 2 years ago (or many more before that). Under 173.2/3 it drops again.
i dont believe thats the whole story as far as I know he used 1. those lines 2. some kind of sentiment/fundamental approach and 3. some liquidity approach. he reasoned his trades by liquidity so how can he know there is liquidity somewhere at any price?
for example geppy was trending up hard, he focused around prices below the low saying there is luquidity, wth?
And then he shorted while everyone focused longing.
so his whole approach was ridiculously counter-intuitive, just dont get it, someone know more maybe?
thanks for post mpt
  • #13,952
  • Edited 7:13am Jun 23, 2014 6:43am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting randomn00b
{quote} i dont believe thats the whole story as far as I know he used 1. those lines 2. some kind of sentiment/fundamental approach and 3. some liquidity approach. he reasoned his trades by liquidity so how can he know there is liquidity somewhere at any price? for example geppy was trending up hard, he focused around prices below the low saying there is luquidity, wth? And then he shorted while everyone focused longing. so his whole approach was ridiculously counter-intuitive, just dont get it, someone know more maybe? thanks for post mpt
The whole liquidity argument is codswallop. Unless you have access to extremely high level buy/sell flow data, there is absolutely no way that you can derive such info. There being no central Forex exchange, the only data you can get is from your immediate broker - and is hardly representative of the market.

I realise that newcomers absolutely adored FX Ray for his live trade calls - FX ray came over as a good person, although I suspect he got tired of the whole thing.

In the same way, they adored HDA for similar reasons - although I am lead to understand that he was not exactly who he said he was.
  • #13,953
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:16am Jun 23, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} The whole liquidity argument is codswallop. Unless you have access to extremely high level buy/sell flow data, there is absolutely no way that you can derive such info. There being no central Forex exchange, the only data you can get is from your immediate broker - and is hardly representative of the market. I realise that newcomers absolutely adored FX Ray for his live trade calls - FX ray came over as a good person, although I suspect he got tired of the whole thing. In the same way, they adored HDA for similar reasons - although I...

Wow! Would you like to elaborate on that!

As far as I am concerned I can definitely say FX-Ray helped me a lot. The only thing I can think of was some people are not open to listening to other people's opinions and have a very close mind-set with very strong opinions (I am just talking in general) and probably this was the main reason he got fed-up. If someone wants to learn, they have to be receptive, open, and patient. I am not saying that one should not have an opinion but if you disagree with someone then it should be able to bring out a healthy discussion where from everyone can learn something new and it has a positive outcome. It does take a lot of effort to be polite and nice but just takes a second to become rude and arrogant.

PS Add: No disrespect to anyone, just my opinion.
  • #13,954
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:20am Jun 23, 2014 7:20am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Wow! Would you like to elaborate on that! As far as I am concerned I can definitely say FX-Ray helped me a lot. The only thing I can think of was some people are not open to listening to other people's opinions and have a very close mind-set with very strong opinions (I am just talking in general) and probably this was the main reason he got fed-up. If someone wants to learn, they have to be receptive, open, and patient. I am not saying that one should not have an opinion but if you disagree with someone then it should be able to bring out...
Just from comments picked up on on other threads. It appears HDA has been around for some time, using other names and may have a somewhat interesting past outside of FF.

Personally, I really don't care, but there are some people who are, well, not impressed.
  • #13,955
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:25am Jun 23, 2014 7:25am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Some people such as FX Ray use horizontal levels as indications of support and resistance. This is often valid, but in this case, the levels are sometimes NOT horizontal, but are derived from diagonal and OTHER methods. Horizontal levels work well on shorter time frames, but this pair has been in consolidation for more than six months and is, in some cases, reacting to resistances and supports that often started 2 years ago (or many more before that). This area has been a high resistance area since at least 1993! Horizontal...
Not arguing but just

Weekly - Horizontal only. While TL's and "other" methods are also favorite tools of mine, I wouldn't say horizontal work well "only" on shorter TF's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpymweekly.png Size: 56 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #13,956
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:28am Jun 23, 2014 7:28am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} FX ray came over as a good person, although I suspect he got tired of the whole thing. In the same way, they adored HDA for similar reasons - although I am lead to understand that he was not exactly who he said he was.
You were led .... incorrectly then. But even he wasn't, does that change his obvious knowledge of the markets and, the obvious sources he employs?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #13,957
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:29am Jun 23, 2014 7:29am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Wow! Would you like to elaborate on that! As far as I am concerned I can definitely say FX-Ray helped me a lot. The only thing I can think of was some people are not open to listening to other people's opinions and have a very close mind-set with very strong opinions... It does take a lot of effort to be polite and nice but just takes a second to become rude and arrogant. PS Add: No disrespect to anyone, just my opinion.

I agree. But, IMO, it takes no effort to be polite. Healthy discussion is an effective way to learn. It doesn't dilute your stance, but helps you consider things on a broader scale - IMO.
  • #13,958
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:42am Jun 23, 2014 7:42am
Quoting albchr
{quote} You were led .... incorrectly then. But even he wasn't, does that change his obvious knowledge of the markets and, the obvious sources he employs?
No. He was wrong as often as he was right. He relies primarily on flow data re barriers and these are subject to change from day to day. His calls on GJ and UJ were totally wrong.

Frankly, I pay a lot more attention to some new comers here than I would him. They often have the knack to pick up on things that everyone else is missing.

I lost interest totally after he posted (albeit briefly) that one page mantra that effectively was set on mocking and rubbishing Navin.
  • #13,959
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:04am Jun 23, 2014 8:04am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} No. He was wrong as often as he was right. He relies primarily on flow data re barriers and these are subject to change from day to day. His calls on GJ and UJ were totally wrong. Frankly, I pay a lot more attention to some new comers here than I would him. They often have the knack to pick up on things that everyone else is missing. I lost interest totally after he posted (albeit briefly) that one page mantra that effectively was set on mocking and rubbishing Navin.
Well, this was more about the claim of who he is but, we're all entitled to our opinions I guess. I don't recall him making "calls" on UJ or GJ. I recall him advising what to look for on them and why. As far as being correct with "calls", I think his GU trade was a beauty. I still find it rather incredible he held with conviction after holding long from September with an exit of 7000 and passing up on taking exit at 6995 the first time there. Yet, here were are.

I agree wholehearted agree with the "part" of what you say he relies on.

Navin and I go way back too as buddies. On a rather personal level I might add. And while HDA can be and is rather direct, I really don't think his intent was to mock Nav. I think he was trying to point out a flaw in our friend's thinking and approach as a sound trading practice. I love Nav like a brother and even he is not too happy with his current circumstances at this point. I truly believe HDA's attempt at pointing out how to avoid that in the future was well intended.

But as I said, everyone is entitled to their opinion. I have no problem with yours.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #13,960
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:05am Jun 23, 2014 8:05am
FX Ray was the risk master baby! 35 pips to date on this dragon sell and will leave the trade on for 1 week. Navin, the Mark Zuckerberg of forex and one hell of a technical analyst too.
Be humble or be humbled.
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