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AUD/USD

  • #80,321
  • Jun 23, 2014 1:59am Jun 23, 2014 1:59am
Asia dumping aussie before london open
  • #80,322
  • Jun 23, 2014 2:17am Jun 23, 2014 2:17am
I'll chance some shorts at 9446 I think, longs would interest me around 9340....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #80,323
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:19am Jun 23, 2014 3:19am
I am watching the 4hr rising channel. Price should make .9476 at the least that will make the new recent HH I have being waiting for imo. If it reaches this level there's not a lot of recent resistance for a further move up.

Here is the TL I have being speaking about. I know a lot of people had the same TL because there was lots of talk about the a possible reversal from. I think it's amusing that no one but me has brought it up since. PA imo doesn't quickly forget a break like this. It may have been a fake out but the current move is the most typical conformation that is available in forex (again imo). It broke the TL, pulled back to the TL and then moved back into the direction of the BO. I am not saying it was a 100% trade or anything but as far patterns goes in forex it's about as clear as it gets.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,324
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:24am Jun 23, 2014 3:24am
Quoting Matts Micro
I am watching the 4hr rising channel. Price should make .9476 at the least that will make the new recent HH I have being waiting for imo. If it reaches this level there's not a lot of recent resistance for a further move up. Here is the TL I have being speaking about. I know a lot of people had the same TL because there was lots of talk about the a possible reversal from. I think it's amusing that no one but me has brought it up since. PA imo doesn't quickly forget a break like this. It may have been a fake out but the current move is the most typical...
interesting. i think the fact that it is moving around this level 9440-9450 tells me it is in no hurry to take out 9460. it may come down to 9380 first. also usd data in the evening should take care.
  • #80,325
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:25am Jun 23, 2014 3:25am
Quoting Matts Micro
I am watching the 4hr rising channel. Price should make .9476 at the least that will make the new recent HH I have being waiting for imo. If it reaches this level there's not a lot of recent resistance for a further move up. Here is the TL I have being speaking about. I know a lot of people had the same TL because there was lots of talk about the a possible reversal from. I think it's amusing that no one but me has brought it up since. PA imo doesn't quickly forget a break like this. It may have been a fake out but the current move is the most typical...
I'm seeing a lot of divergence with the higher highs. Something tells me its just not sustainable.
  • #80,326
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:36am Jun 23, 2014 3:36am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} interesting. i think the fact that it is moving around this level 9440-9450 tells me it is in no hurry to take out 9460. it may come down to 9380 first. also usd data in the evening should take care.
This level is still in the "wick" zone of my 4hr channel but to do this without reaching a new high will begin to look PA divergence imo and may cause a break in the rising channel for a bear run, but it's possible, especially with a doji like 4hr candle completing (though I wont heed much considering the size of previous candle). I have found if I start letting news affect my TA I lose out on positions, aside from the NFP week and other substantial announcements. Otherwise most other news events conforms to TA imo. Obviously not always right but what is in forex.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,327
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:40am Jun 23, 2014 3:40am
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} I'm seeing a lot of divergence with the higher highs. Something tells me its just not sustainable.
Yah as I mentioned it's a possibility and it maybe one of those occasions that this maybe a swing. My 4hr candle is closing will see what happens here.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,328
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:42am Jun 23, 2014 3:42am
I had buy order placed since last Friday @ 9370, i see the price opened @ 9368 and my orders didnt get filled.... Im guessing maybe spreads were too high... anyways missed this opportunity.
  • #80,329
  • Jun 23, 2014 3:54am Jun 23, 2014 3:54am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yah as I mentioned it's a possibility and it maybe one of those occasions that this maybe a swing. My 4hr candle is closing will see what happens here.
I find it difficult to find channels/TL's when PA is still in range sometimes. Just re-drew my 4hr channel TL's with current high as reference and it fits. It may possibly have seen its high and it may pullback, but imo it will go higher before making a daily low.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,330
  • Jun 23, 2014 4:48am Jun 23, 2014 4:48am
Quoting albchr
{quote} LOL... Here you go VBP, I'll lend you an intraday painting.... {image}
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,331
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:01am Jun 23, 2014 5:01am
Quoting albchr
{quote} {image}
It is looking a bit "toppish" atm but I am looking at the crosses. AUD still going strong. Watching EU, it is at bottom of range imo, looking for reversal or breakout for indication.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,332
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:06am Jun 23, 2014 5:06am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} It is looking a bit "toppish" atm but I am looking at the crosses. AUD still going strong. Watching EU, it is at bottom of range imo, looking for reversal or breakout for indication.
Good morning Matts,

Yes I am not convinced beyond a possible little pullback yet, if at all. But the RR here at the top of the range is OK for me and hey, it worked last week for a few.
I do like the 4H divergence I see on my chart so....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,333
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:10am Jun 23, 2014 5:10am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Good morning Matts, Yes I am not convinced beyond a possible little pullback yet, if at all. But the RR here at the top of the range is OK for me and hey, it worked last week for a few.
Hey albchr. Yah it's a good trade, can't go too wrong with that sort of RR.

GL


Edit: I have the same sort of trade setup on EU except in opposite direction
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,334
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:22am Jun 23, 2014 5:22am
Bad data for EUR changes the pattern for A/U looks like bull flag accumulation

H1

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  • #80,335
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:30am Jun 23, 2014 5:30am
Quoting Ken A
Bad data for EUR changes the pattern for A/U looks like bull flag accumulation
Would you say that the JPY is beginning to support the AUD again? I think there was a weakness in correlation last week between the two.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,336
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:34am Jun 23, 2014 5:34am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Would you say that the JPY is beginning to support the AUD again? I think there was a weakness in correlation last week between the two.
U/J spots 101.80 is support.

Like I said can't compare it that way because you are looking at USD strength and weakness. Need to look at 3 pairs at least U/J, A/J and A/U. A/U is getting some love from EUR due to the bad data.
  • #80,337
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:37am Jun 23, 2014 5:37am
Quoting Ken A
Bad data for EUR changes the pattern for A/U looks like bull flag accumulation H1 {image}
Yeah, I've been watching that on the 30M Ken. Not 100% sure of a flag (patterns are a touch out of my element) but no doubt she's resting on SR as of now.

AJ is also looking to support atm. And if that's a flag? It has one heck of a pole.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,338
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:41am Jun 23, 2014 5:41am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yeah, I've been watching that on the 30M Ken. Not 100% sure of a flag (patterns are a touch out of my element) but no doubt she's resting on SR as of now. {image}
Really depends on how strong the road block at .9450 or just a speed bump. Will know at 10:00 EST and USD Existing Home Sales. Speed bump because breaching .9450 will trigger buy stops all over the place - that's why I prefer few pips stops.

Edit: same goes for U/N and E/N
  • #80,339
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:42am Jun 23, 2014 5:42am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} U/J spots 101.80 is support. Like I said can't compare it that way because you are looking at USD strength and weakness. Need to look at 3 pairs at least U/J, A/J and A/U. A/U is getting some love from EUR due to the bad data.
Yah, I was looking at EUR weakness too. I was watching the way the JPY rode the EJ. Pound also took a hit, unsurprisingly.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,340
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:48am Jun 23, 2014 5:48am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Really depends on how strong the road block at .9450 or just a speed bump. Will know at 10:00 EST and USD Existing Home Sales
UJ also found support but.... temporary? Last week I was looking to 101.712/595 but that was last week...lol...we'll see.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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