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AUD/USD

  • #80,221
  • Jun 21, 2014 12:48pm Jun 21, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting MigMad
Hello guys, without any fundamentals, just technical
Quoting MigMad
if we go to the weekly chart
Quoting MigMad
If you look at the monthly chart
Thanks for sharing these charts. However, when you analysis on the anything beyond weekly chart, how would you not to calculate or include any fundamental factors into you reasoning?

Unless you believe TA is main drive in the market. That, my friend, is incorrect.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #80,222
  • Jun 21, 2014 12:55pm Jun 21, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting SydneyGuru
{quote}Bad sign for bulls ... they are exhausted
Yes, bull power is weakening, but still intact. And we still need a good reason for it to turn around and head down back or continue getting up.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #80,223
  • Jun 21, 2014 10:17pm Jun 21, 2014 10:17pm
obumo and all his minions will make sure the usd goes down futher therefor advancing GOLD and AUD

BUY AWAY... EVEN IF EVERYONE AND THERE DOG WAS A BULL OBUMO IS SO STUPID HE"LL KEEP MAKING IT GO UP..
  • #80,224
  • Edited Jun 22, 2014 12:23am Jun 21, 2014 11:48pm | Edited Jun 22, 2014 12:23am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} {quote} {quote} Thanks for sharing these charts. However, when you analysis on the anything beyond weekly chart, how would you not to calculate or include any fundamental factors into you reasoning? Unless you believe TA is main drive in the market. That, my friend, is incorrect.
This is complex and fun subject.
Market is driven by fundamentals coupled with human emotions of greed and fear.
This is the basses of Elliot Wave and Harmonics.If enough traders get "impulsed" to certain bias even if fundamentals say otherwise then price will follow what is at that moment strongest sentiment.
On Greater view I am biased to Bear side on Aussie based on falling mining industry and Chinese slowing economy.What I have been reading Aussie is destined to be traded under 90.Only reason why is not plummeting now is US poor numbers specially in summer when economy generally does not perform well.
Anyway 8 shorts TP around 9340'sh and will assess for further action.

THE Australian dollar is slightly lower, weighed down by profit taking and a lower iron ore price.
At 0700 AEST on Monday, the local dollar was trading at 93.98 US cents, down from 94.14 cents on Friday.
The currency is backing away from the one-month high of 94.39 US cents, reached early on Friday morning, after May's local unemployment rate stayed steady and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its cash rate.
Brown Brothers Harriman global head of currency strategy Marc Chandler said the Australian dollar's strength last week surprised him.
He said the currency most likely would lose ground this week after its strong performance last week.
“A break now of 93.70 US cents would likely signal a corrective phase rather than consolidation, in which case the next target would be around a cent lower,” he said.
National Australia Bank global co-head of foreign exchange strategy Ray Attrill said a falling iron ore price wouldn't help the Australian dollar.
At the end of last week iron ore fell 60 cents to $US90.90 a tonne.
“The fresh 2014 lows for iron ore will grab some headlines Monday and could weigh on the Australian dollar,” he said.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/marke...-1226955501560
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #80,225
  • Jun 22, 2014 8:53am Jun 22, 2014 8:53am
Market always try to predict future ... so big funds start unload risky assets in advance plus as i wrote ... 85% of 4th weeks of month AUD goes south because investors not sure about RBA statement but not from middle. See how it goes ... from 0.94250 to down ...

I expected range trade on friday but it went down ... bad sign ...

Also, people get crazy from sun storm - geomagnetic activity ... it expecting monday ... So, be prepared for big volatility on monday

Any arguments against ?
  • #80,226
  • Jun 22, 2014 10:23am Jun 22, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} Again, you are helping me with that tip aha
If you have been here long enough pretty easy to tell sincere traders from those in disguise with ulterior motives hunting accounts or selling signal service commercial agenda. They sell confidence nothing more aka con-artist. They will say and about to do anything to get attentions and subscribers. Have seen too many then later tagged as commercial members and came back with new usernames if the covers were blown.

Example:

Quote
people get crazy from sun storm - geomagnetic activity ... it expecting monday ... So, be prepared for big volatility on monday
Quote
... bad sign ...

LOL
  • #80,227
  • Jun 22, 2014 10:25am Jun 22, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} If you have been here long enough pretty easy to tell sincere traders from those in disguise with ulterior motives hunting accounts or selling signal service commercial agenda. They sell confidence nothing more aka con-artist. They will say and about to do anything to get attentions and subscribers. Have seen too many then later tagged as commercial members and came back with new usernames if the covers were blown. Example: {quote} LOL
Well thank you for the advice as for the last sentence he posted abouot volatility on aud usd on monday i think it wont be anything special to be honest. but we'll see about that wont we?
  • #80,228
  • Jun 22, 2014 10:33am Jun 22, 2014 10:33am
Just trade your own analysis
  • #80,229
  • Jun 22, 2014 10:46am Jun 22, 2014 10:46am
Always do, but since i'm starting and im quite the newbie i'v been reading this thread for 2-3 months now to see if i could learn something from the more experienced ppl and that includes trying to understand how for example guru there is trying to predict his moves so i can improve my own analisis.

I do get your point though and again i thank you because it's never enough to remember myself in these first stages of my trading not to go follow people's opinions.
  • #80,230
  • Jun 22, 2014 10:49am Jun 22, 2014 10:49am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Example: LOL
No worries. Me and mine are prepared.
Attached Image
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,231
  • Jun 22, 2014 10:55am Jun 22, 2014 10:55am
Quoting albchr
{quote} No worries. Me and mine are prepared. {image}
  • #80,232
  • Jun 22, 2014 10:55am Jun 22, 2014 10:55am
Quoting albchr
{quote} No worries. Me and mine are prepared. {image}
I haven't seen forexalien comment on this forum in a while...
  • #80,233
  • Jun 22, 2014 11:01am Jun 22, 2014 11:01am
Lots of gurus already ahead of the new week. Think I will listen to ... what the market tells me.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #80,234
  • Jun 22, 2014 11:06am Jun 22, 2014 11:06am
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} I haven't seen forexalien comment on this forum in a while...
I think Alien is rather busy with his thread and followers.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,235
  • Jun 22, 2014 4:52pm Jun 22, 2014 4:52pm
I'm currently watching UCad. With crisis in Iraq oil is on rise along with other commodities and UCad is the one to watch imo. I know Aus doesn't do much oil (yet) but being linked to the UC via the commodities I am wondering if it might be an odd ball. It's really too early in the morning (in West Aus) to think atm though.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,236
  • Jun 22, 2014 5:00pm Jun 22, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting Matts Micro
I'm currently watching UCad. With crisis in Iraq oil is on rise along with other commodities and UCad is the one to watch imo. I know Aus doesn't do much oil (yet) but being linked to the UC via the commodities I am wondering if it might be an odd ball. It's really too early in the morning (in West Aus) to think atm though.

I know there was Cad news on Friday but usdcad is also currently playing out a daily H&S and has further to move imo. I am watching AUD in case it wants to follow suit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad #3.png Size: 51 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,237
  • Jun 22, 2014 5:11pm Jun 22, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting Matts Micro
I'm currently watching UCad. With crisis in Iraq oil is on rise along with other commodities and UCad is the one to watch imo. I know Aus doesn't do much oil (yet) but being linked to the UC via the commodities I am wondering if it might be an odd ball. It's really too early in the morning (in West Aus) to think atm though.
Lol it almost sounds I know what I am talking about. Btw I am illiterate in fundies so guessing from my limited knowledge
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,238
  • Jun 22, 2014 8:42pm Jun 22, 2014 8:42pm
I'm thinking volume will pick up after the CYN manufacturing data is released...
I don't believe the outcome being positive or negative to be as important as the price action that follows..
This should set the tone for the rest of the trading day..
  • #80,239
  • Jun 22, 2014 8:58pm Jun 22, 2014 8:58pm
Hola
  • #80,240
  • Jun 22, 2014 9:06pm Jun 22, 2014 9:06pm
added few more shorts at 9427
I am sure euphoria of manipulated Chinese data will come down soon.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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