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  • #4,561
  • Jun 22, 2014 4:02pm Jun 22, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Copper has been good to me this year. I, like you Olu, would love to get back in somewhere near to 3.20, having exited my last short at around 3.04. I, like you, expect this move back up to fail, and will be watching over the coming days for signs that it's running out of puff.
On the technical level I am bearish but there is a lot of rubbish going on in China that could mess with our simple technicals. My shorts, if and when I put them on, are going to be picked carefully and trades followed more closely.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,562
  • Jun 22, 2014 4:15pm Jun 22, 2014 4:15pm
I am confused, I was convinced that gold will keep falling but after the passed 3 days candles and after examining the monthly and weekly charts of both gold and $, it looks like gold is more towards climbing than falling and that the $ is more towards falling than climbing. since this is against my first analysis, I am out till i see a clear direction.
  • #4,563
  • Jun 22, 2014 5:07pm Jun 22, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting rehab
I am confused, I was convinced that gold will keep falling but after the passed 3 days candles and after examining the monthly and weekly charts of both gold and $, it looks like gold is more towards climbing than falling and that the $ is more towards falling than climbing. since this is against my first analysis, I am out till i see a clear direction.

There is a lot of confusion in the markets and it is a wise move to stay out till clarity resumes. I am also in wait and see mode in one or two of my intended trades. It is a wise thing to do for out accounts and our psychology

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,564
  • Jun 22, 2014 5:21pm Jun 22, 2014 5:21pm
Quoting rehab
I am confused, I was convinced that gold will keep falling but after the passed 3 days candles and after examining the monthly and weekly charts of both gold and $, it looks like gold is more towards climbing than falling and that the $ is more towards falling than climbing. since this is against my first analysis, I am out till i see a clear direction.
I was convinced that gold would go up so I sold a boatload of puts when gold dropped and was long (still am) the underlying futures. I was a little early - I expected the drop from the triangle to be a fakeout but it turned out it went lower for longer than I thought it would before it reversed.
Having said that I didn't expect the big move up at the end of last week (Thursday I think). I thought they'd close it around 1280/90 for options expiry this week.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,565
  • Jun 22, 2014 5:28pm Jun 22, 2014 5:28pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} There is a lot of confusion in the markets and it is a wise move to stay out till clarity resumes. I am also in wait and see mode in one or two of my intended trades. It is a wise thing to do for out accounts and our psychology Olu
I disagree - on gold at least. That's a clear failed breakdown and bullish reversal, as clear as a bell. I'm expecting gold to go up to 1400, possibly higher.
I'm no gold bug. I have no idea what the true price for gold should be. But then nobody does. Who cares, the technicals are saying "this is a reversal" and I'm trading it with a long bias until the reversal has failed.

Only price pays, for all I know, gold will reverse strongly this week. If it does, fine, that's trading, can't do nowt about it. Can only try to read the tea leaves as best we can.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,566
  • Jun 22, 2014 5:55pm Jun 22, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I disagree - on gold at least. That's a clear failed breakdown and bullish reversal, as clear as a bell. I'm expecting gold to go up to 1400, possibly higher. I'm no gold bug. I have no idea what the true price for gold should be. But then nobody does. Who cares, the technicals are saying "this is a reversal" and I'm trading it with a long bias until the reversal has failed. Only price pays, for all I know, gold will reverse strongly this week. If it does, fine, that's trading, can't do nowt about it. Can only try to read the tea leaves...

I hear what you say BW. I was saying that staying out is a good thing to do when you are confused about what has transpired - especially when it has not done what you thought would happen. A 100% pure price trader will of course see this price action the way you described and act accordingly. Another trader with a some other additional filter will freak out at what happened last week. When you want to freak out then you had better not be in any positions till you can re-assess the situation and drawn up another trade plan

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,567
  • Jun 22, 2014 6:38pm Jun 22, 2014 6:38pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I hear what you say BW. I was saying that staying out is a good thing to do when you are confused about what has transpired - especially when it has not done what you thought would happen. A 100% pure price trader will of course see this price action the way you described and act accordingly. Another trader with a some other additional filter will freak out at what happened last week. When you want to freak out then you had better not be in any positions till you can re-assess the situation and drawn up another trade plan Olu
I think most here aren't real long-term traders but for anyone that is I think silver is a better play than gold with lower risk. I've done a lot of research on silver lately & I think there's real fundamentals that will prevent silver from a large drop unlike gold. Gold is mainly a currency investors/banks/funds run to when they're uncertain about the future of currencies. Not many other uses other than jewelry. Silver tags along pretty well with gold but there's a real industrial need for silver (40-50% of production). I won't go into all the details here but there seems to be a shortage of physical silver now & JPM has been buying up every ounce they can get there hands on. They're using paper (short 13,000 contracts) to push the price lower so they can get the physical at lower prices. With that being said, they can also push prices much lower than they should go based upon true supply/demand so it certainly could go much lower. Look @ oil when it went to $149/barrel then dropped to $35-40/barrel. Was that really from true physical supply/demand?

Just an opinion.
  • #4,568
  • Jun 22, 2014 7:05pm Jun 22, 2014 7:05pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I think most here aren't real long-term traders but for anyone that is I think silver is a better play than gold with lower risk. I've done a lot of research on silver lately & I think there's real fundamentals that will prevent silver from a large drop unlike gold. Gold is mainly a currency investors/banks/funds run to when they're uncertain about the future of currencies. Not many other uses other than jewelry. Silver tags along pretty well with gold but there's a real industrial need for silver (40-50% of production). I won't go into...

Insightful post Srt. I agree with you about silver over gold as I am seeing that on the charts. But what is one to do? with all these manipulation and alterior motive trading going on. BW said it just the way it is. Just trade what the charts tell you. Too many fundamentals to consider. What can force all the short covering of all those contracts?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,569
  • Jun 22, 2014 7:09pm Jun 22, 2014 7:09pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Insightful post Srt. I agree with you about silver over gold as I am seeing that on the charts. But what is one to do? with all these manipulation and alterior motive trading going on. BW said it just the way it is. Just trade what the charts tell you. Too many fundamentals to consider. What can force all the short covering of all those contracts? Olu
I agree Olu. With all the manipulation it's hard to trade some of these markets even if you know the fundamentals.
That's why for me I'm not trading silver by the charts. I've sold puts as far out as December of 2015. Very long-term play & forget about trying to time this short-term chop & manipulation.
  • #4,570
  • Jun 22, 2014 9:01pm Jun 22, 2014 9:01pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I think most here aren't real long-term traders but for anyone that is I think silver is a better play than gold with lower risk. I've done a lot of research on silver lately & I think there's real fundamentals that will prevent silver from a large drop unlike gold. Gold is mainly a currency investors/banks/funds run to when they're uncertain about the future of currencies. Not many other uses other than jewelry. Silver tags along pretty well with gold but there's a real industrial need for silver (40-50% of production). I won't go into...
I dunno about that mate. Silver has much higher volatility than gold therefore on a volatility basis it's much riskier. People have been banging on about silver's many industrial uses, about silver being vastly undervalued, about the "lack of physical" (waiting times, U.S. Mint sold out, etc.), about the silver to gold ratio being too low and going back to some "natural" ratio (whatever that is), about JPM's legendary perpetual mega short position, and all the rest of it, for years and years, seems like forever, but AFAIK (I'm tired now, can't be bothered to check) it's fallen much harder than gold since the top.
I think saying it's a better play may be correct, because what you want to see when gold goes up is the gold:silver ratio going down (i.e. you want silver to be stronger when they both go up), but it's more volatile, so I see it as more risky. I happen to think gold futures are massively risky and that's enough risk for me (perhaps too much, I'm loaded to the gunnels with gold longs); I salute those who speculate with silver futures and silver futures options Are you short silver futures puts then? If so, nice one, well played.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,571
  • Jun 22, 2014 9:06pm Jun 22, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I hear what you say BW. I was saying that staying out is a good thing to do when you are confused about what has transpired - especially when it has not done what you thought would happen. A 100% pure price trader will of course see this price action the way you described and act accordingly. Another trader with a some other additional filter will freak out at what happened last week. When you want to freak out then you had better not be in any positions till you can re-assess the situation and drawn up another trade plan Olu
You're right Olu; when we're confused we need to not trade. My mantra is NO COIN FLIPS!!! I think I'm going to have that as my epitaph. Thankfully there's usually something that's quite clear. For me, the euro going south is one such trade; probably the best trade for the rest of this year. I've started selling calls on euro.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,572
  • Jun 23, 2014 12:12am Jun 23, 2014 12:12am
i read somewhere that from the technical point of view, silver tends to give false PA and false breakouts more than gold, although gold is heavily manipulated. So, i guess it comes down to each one strategy and choices. I am not a long term trader, I am a short term trader, trading the day chart and I switch between swing and trend trading depends on what I trade. I think is suitable for a small account. I like this thread cause it contains good traders with different strategies and a nice mix between technical analysis and fundamentals. Many thanks to Olu for hosting all of us.
  • #4,573
  • Edited 2:15am Jun 23, 2014 1:52am | Edited 2:15am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} You're right Olu; when we're confused we need to not trade. My mantra is NO COIN FLIPS!!! I think I'm going to have that as my epitaph. Thankfully there's usually something that's quite clear. For me, the euro going south is one such trade; probably the best trade for the rest of this year. I've started selling calls on euro.
About the euro trade. I am clear on that one too but from where is the question in this manipulated world?I expected more downside by now. Draghi will need to do more though and that will send the euro down seriously. Something the market has'nt factored in much. Come on big trends set yourself up for me nicely. I dont want to look at charts after the fact and say I could have done this or that

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,574
  • Jun 23, 2014 1:56am Jun 23, 2014 1:56am
Silver also tends to follow palladium.

Quoting stewrigh
Another reason I'm bullish silver - palladium and silver are normally fairly closely correlated - This is a chart of silver overlaid with palladium. {image}
  • #4,575
  • Jun 23, 2014 1:57am Jun 23, 2014 1:57am
Quoting rehab
i read somewhere that from the technical point of view, silver tends to give false PA and false breakouts more than gold, although gold is heavily manipulated. So, i guess it comes down to each one strategy and choices. I am not a long term trader, I am a short term trader, trading the day chart and I switch between swing and trend trading depends on what I trade. I think is suitable for a small account. I like this thread cause it contains good traders with different strategies and a nice mix between technical analysis and fundamentals. Many thanks...

Thanks for your king words Rehab. I just want all of us on December 31st to say 'we creamed the markets and achieved our individual trading goals this year ' So guys keep on post - and trading

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,576
  • Jun 23, 2014 2:10am Jun 23, 2014 2:10am
Don't normally trade copper but if I did I think I'd be looking to go long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,577
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:41am Jun 23, 2014 5:41am
Quoting stewrigh
Don't normally trade copper but if I did I think I'd be looking to go long. {image}
True that!
I just got pumped selling into a bit of a questionable supply area.
I'm on the side for now.....need to let the dust settle a bit...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,578
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:14am Jun 23, 2014 6:14am
Quoting Olu
The following text below was received by PM. It nailed my trading right down to a t. I have not put the traders name on it just in case he/she wanted to remain private. this advice will help other traders like me trying to trade with a 9-5 job Hello Olu, Saw your thread. Try weekly charts for your trades if your 9-5. Risk management is the key. Let the trades run longer...your scalping daily chart. Learn 1-2-3 tops/bottoms. It will help you greatly.
Hi

May I ask, what is a 1-2-3 top or bottom, please?
  • #4,579
  • Jun 23, 2014 7:58am Jun 23, 2014 7:58am
I'm bullish CAD(I'm long cadchf) and this looks like the start of another trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,580
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:31pm Jun 23, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} True that! I just got pumped selling into a bit of a questionable supply area. I'm on the side for now.....need to let the dust settle a bit... {image}

Hi MPB

I am looking at the 320 area basis july which corresponds to the 3.180 area on the sept. If price blows past there I will jettison my bearishness and get long. For now its sidelines for me

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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