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AUD/USD

  • #80,201
  • Jun 20, 2014 9:54am Jun 20, 2014 9:54am
thanks Ken/ Kacey for all the confusion. Don't know if i should kiss you or go bowling with you... lol
  • #80,202
  • Jun 20, 2014 10:13am Jun 20, 2014 10:13am
Quoting rocky
{image}
Target Hit, jumping over to trade the ES, Rocky!
  • #80,203
  • Jun 20, 2014 10:32am Jun 20, 2014 10:32am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdmh4.png Size: 64 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,204
  • Jun 20, 2014 11:33am Jun 20, 2014 11:33am
Quoting nealpek
{image}
Silly queation. Why is your chart different (prices)?
  • #80,205
  • Jun 20, 2014 11:35am Jun 20, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Do you actually know how to calculate Fib S/R and pivot? Don't use it if you don't because useless without knowing the the reference. There're more than simple calculation to use the golden ratios to measure target but that's for another day. See here how to calculate Fib S/R http://www.actionforex.com/markets/p...2010040952149/ Then make sure your data feed cutoff/rollover is 17:00 EST otherwise you are all alone out there.
Thanks for that I'll look it up. I have an indicator for the fibs on my chart. What do you mean data feed?
  • #80,206
  • Jun 20, 2014 11:55am Jun 20, 2014 11:55am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Do you actually know how to calculate Fib S/R and pivot? Don't use it if you don't because useless without knowing the the reference. There're more than simple calculation to use the golden ratios to measure target but that's for another day. See here how to calculate Fib S/R http://www.actionforex.com/markets/p...2010040952149/ Then make sure your data feed cutoff/rollover is 17:00 EST otherwise you are all alone out there.
Mines 20:00 EST
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,207
  • Edited 2:13am Jun 21, 2014 1:32am | Edited 2:13am
AUD has no major news release next week. US Consumer Confident and House numbers release next week.
Let's see if AUDUSD's 09400 will hold or not next week.
Attached Image
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #80,208
  • Jun 21, 2014 6:26am Jun 21, 2014 6:26am
Quoting FXSayWhat
AUD has no major news release next week. US Consumer Confident and House numbers release next week. Let's see if AUDUSD's 09400 will hold or not next week. {image}
Friday - no news AUD down - it means that no more investors wanna to invest. I expect Monday up on china data and from Monday evening till friday down to 0.92 or 0.9150

Bad sign for bulls ... they are exhausted
  • #80,209
  • Jun 21, 2014 6:32am Jun 21, 2014 6:32am
Quoting nealpek
i would be looking at around fib s2 and lower, waiting for another demand area to form first, as there is room for it to travel further south. if i may be so bold, the most important thing on your chart is price, but its the least visible,just a note, all of those lines and dots and fib #'s should only at best, be used as a guide if you really feel the need. remember, no indicator ever influenced price, or made price go up or down, its really your own 'belief' that it actually works or makes a difference. if they really work,and everyone is using...
I noticed that never AUD going down form midprice! always from top.... expecting last Bull jump to sell from the top and kick off sellers now .. around 0.94250
  • #80,210
  • Jun 21, 2014 8:15am Jun 21, 2014 8:15am
Quoting albchr
{image}
So where did it close? Mine at .93885
  • #80,211
  • Jun 21, 2014 9:55am Jun 21, 2014 9:55am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} So where did it close? Mine at .93885
I had 4 total. Closed 3 of them between .94015 & .94072. I hesitated a moment at the bottom as I pondered letting them all run. Left one run from .93996 and now stop set at BE+1 so currently only +11.5 in. It's close.

Given the daily here (Still open until Sunday night ) and weekly (not shown) I don't think it's over honestly so assuming I don't get whacked on a weekend gap up (I normally remove stops for weekend carries this close but was attending to other trades at the time ), I'll likely remove that stop and add a few more if it looks good for it.

I'm still in compensation mode for my lovely rack of NU shorts so just banking what I can, when I can. Between the banked AU and a few others I'm up on the week for "banked" money but still floating very small % red with NU. Also in the green on a couple floating GU shorts and AN longs. The position size on those are larger so total pips may be ugly but the $$ should be OK. MM at it's best...or... worst....LOL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,212
  • Jun 21, 2014 10:08am Jun 21, 2014 10:08am
Quoting albchr
{quote} I had 4 total. Closed 3 of them between .94015 & .94072. I hesitated a moment at the bottom as I pondered letting them all run. Left one run from .93996 and now stop set at BE+1 so currently only +11.5 in. It's close. Given the daily here (Still open until Sunday night ) and weekly (not shown) I don't think it's over honestly so assuming I don't get whacked on a weekend gap up (I normally remove stops for weekend carries this close but was attending to other trades at the time ), I'll likely remove that stop and add a...
I personally don't think it will gap up far even with positive data of China on Sunday. Most of the liquidity already settled where it intended to be plus Friday was Triple Witch Friday

But you did the right thing to reduce exposure other story if you have substantial floating profits from other trades.

Edit: I mean by close is closing price on Friday .93885
  • #80,213
  • Jun 21, 2014 10:27am Jun 21, 2014 10:27am
Hello guys,

without any fundamentals, just technical, if we go to the weekly chart i interpretate signs like this:

MACD is clearly showing a positive divergence. MACD is still above the water line. ADX is almost dead but if u look closer you will see that seems to take off from 20 + D+ is above 20 and D- is heading down. I think there is room for a last jump till price touches TrendLine creating a double top at 0.97463 and then down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-w1-safecap-investments-ltd.png Size: 83 KB


If you look at the monthly chart, you can see a clear divergence but MACD is facing up, confirmed by the Accelerator Oscillator, positive green.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-mn1-safecap-investments-ltd.png Size: 73 KB


So, I think there is gonna be some bulls on the fields for a while.


Regards
  • #80,214
  • Jun 21, 2014 10:28am Jun 21, 2014 10:28am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I personally don't think it will gap up far even with positive data of China on Sunday. Most of the liquidity already settled where it intended to be plus Friday was Triple Witch Friday But you did the right thing to reduce exposure other story if...
It doesn't have to gap far for me to get whacked. In fact, as you see on my chart "my" Friday price at broker close was .93853. Yours was .93885 so the 11.5 profit I "thought" I was in is already 3.2 less.... lol

Well, if I do end up paying for my oversight, I just hope it's not too much. Personally I think it's a joke that stops aren't honored over weekends but hey, we can't be cutting into broker profits now can we.

Yeah I was aware of the TWF or "Freaky Friday". Glad actually as I'm sure things wouldn't have been quite so active without it.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,215
  • Jun 21, 2014 10:40am Jun 21, 2014 10:40am
Quoting albchr
Personally I think it's a joke that stops aren't honored over weekends but hey, we can't be cutting into broker profits now can we.
Depends on what type of broker you are with. If they trade against you most likely it will be honored lol

BTW everytime I see MACD makes me think of McDonald - strange
  • #80,216
  • Jun 21, 2014 11:22am Jun 21, 2014 11:22am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Depends on what type of broker you are with. If they trade against you most likely it will be honored lol BTW everytime I see MACD makes me think of McDonald - strange
I already verified it with mine long ago. No honor among them....LOL

MACD? Never used one. But then I never use indies. The RSI (same thing maybe? ) on my chart is there for observation in a test I'm doing for a little project I'm working on. It's ..... interesting.

Anyway, gotta run. Going to see my mom.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,217
  • Jun 21, 2014 11:48am Jun 21, 2014 11:48am
Quoting MigMad
Hello guys, without any fundamentals, just technical, if we go to the weekly chart i interpretate signs like this: MACD is clearly showing a positive divergence. MACD is still above the water line. ADX is almost dead but if u look closer you will see that seems to take off from 20 + D+ is above 20 and D- is heading down. I think there is room for a last jump till price touches TrendLine creating a double top at 0.97463 and then down. {image} If you look at the monthly chart, you can see a clear divergence but MACD is facing up, confirmed by the...
when you use indies, you need to know the time period that are going to predict. For example, you talked monthly MACD. One bar on a monthly chart is one month, the indi need several bars at least to calculate. When you see a divergence of indi on a monthly chart, that is a divergence over a year usually. Are you going to predict price movement for a year or two later? Many things can happen in a year or two, and it can turn out your predict not reliable at all. Also how can you use monthly indi to predict the movement next week, or even the next month? A month is only one bar on a monthly chart.

To use indies, the maximum time frame is weekly, and it can play out weeks later and last months. On a daily chart, the indi needs days to play out later, and last weeks.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #80,218
  • Jun 21, 2014 12:06pm Jun 21, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting Ken A
Why analysis from great posters always come down to if it's not going up then down Strange Also very weird usernames with $%^%^% Guru, $%^$^$^Master, #$#%#%FX <---- dillusionalguru, dillusionalmaster Oh yes Chris, say hi to mom
Ken i do like your posts alot and to be honest they help me alot in my day-to-day trading.
But you have to admit that guru guy not only has a point, but also predicted the last 2 weeks quite well.

I think i'm staying out of this week's trade just to see how it turns out but he might have some good analisis tips it might be worth looking into.

cheers
  • #80,219
  • Jun 21, 2014 12:17pm Jun 21, 2014 12:17pm
Rule #1

Never listen to anyone especially my posts as trade decision only trust your own.
  • #80,220
  • Jun 21, 2014 12:43pm Jun 21, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting Ken A
Rule #1 Never listen to anyone especially my posts as trade decision only trust your own.
Again, you are helping me with that tip aha
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