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  • #80,141
  • Edited 12:57am Jun 20, 2014 12:19am | Edited 12:57am
Ken,

check graphs ... now 1 month delayed correlation between Gold and A/U ... not direct !

Throw your book - they are in past ... now speculators much more smarter.
  • #80,142
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:36am Jun 20, 2014 12:36am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 1. Why do you think Gold price is directly correlated with A/U rate? (please no text book old school because it's commodity). 2. Why do you think the price of Gold surge? 3. What make people buy or sell gold will also buy and sell A/U?
I'll have a go because the markets are boring atm.

Australia is a large producer of Gold and it does to an extent rely on the price of gold (I know, I have worked in the industry and seen it first hand). However a quick surge in Gold prices probably wont affect the AU unless a long term bull (or bear) trend is uncovered and the trend is still currently in range since mid 2013. The market reports I have read suggest there has been a winding down on the mining industry this year especially on the employment front that will lessen the correlation of the commodities markets to the AUD (though Aus will always be a commodities market).

The price of Gold can be correlated to the heath of the worlds economy. In times of turmoil people turn to Gold because it will still be there long after the death of any and all currencies. 99% of Gold that has been mined in the worlds history is still in existence today. People also take reassurance from an investment they can possibly touch and feel rather than the free floating currencies. With the current flimsy state of many influential currencies any word of possible trouble ie Baghdad being over run, will often result in fear and a surge of Gold and Silver prices.

AU being a major producer of Gold needs to have a buyer of the Gold they produce. China has been the major partner due to its continued building developments and the cause for our recent mining boom hence our economy has been strongly linked to that of China's. If people see a strong demand for our commodities they will buy into the AU.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,143
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:54am Jun 20, 2014 12:54am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I'll have a go because the markets are boring atm. Australia is a large producer of Gold and it does to an extent rely on the price of gold (I know, I have worked in the industry and seen it first hand). However a quick surge in Gold prices probably wont affect the AU unless a long term bull (or bear) trend is uncovered and the trend is still currently in range since mid 2013. The market reports I have read suggest there has been a winding down on the mining industry this year especially on the employment front that will lessen the correlation...
You got it and the Gold is reacting to FOMC but not affecting A/U
  • #80,144
  • Jun 20, 2014 1:13am Jun 20, 2014 1:13am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You got it and the Gold is reacting to FOMC but not affecting A/U
I'm a bit peeved I dropped my Gold trade after it fell like a brick from Monday. Though I took minimal loses I missed out on the 400+ liftoff. I was second guessing myself at the time but still who's to say it couldn't have turned 500 more pips against the trade. Missed this time will catch it next time .
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,145
  • Jun 20, 2014 1:24am Jun 20, 2014 1:24am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I'm a bit peeved I dropped my Gold trade after it fell like a brick from Monday. Though I took minimal loses I missed out on the 400+ liftoff. I was second guessing myself at the time but still who's to say it couldn't have turned 500 more pips against the trade. Missed this time will catch it next time .
Still got mine lock in few ticks profits and let it run - too crazy to follow every turns

Daily

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  • #80,146
  • Jun 20, 2014 1:55am Jun 20, 2014 1:55am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Still got mine lock in few ticks profits and let it run - too crazy to follow every turns Daily {image}
Well done

That's what gets at me a bit, I opened the trade on a daily chart but I didn't stick to the plan. I open just below the Fibs but roughly the same trade as yours. It's sort of the same reasoning that I am basing my EA trade on- to keep it open till the target is reached. I believe generally my is analysis is good and often I know where it's going but the fear/greed factor still needs some work. Still fine tuning but quite sure I'm on the path .

I am looking for re-entry on pullback, perhaps 1302 and may add if it drops lower.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,147
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:01am Jun 20, 2014 2:01am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Well done That's what gets at me a bit, I opened the trade on a daily chart but I didn't stick to the plan. I open just below the Fibs but roughly the same trade as yours. It's sort of the same reasoning that I am basing my EA trade on- to keep it open till the target is reached. I believe generally my is analysis is good and often I know where it's going but the fear/greed factor still needs some work. Still fine tuning but quite sure I'm on the path . I am looking for re-entry on pullback, perhaps 1302 and may add if it drops...
I got many stopped outs as well but no harm done. Got one from 23.6% 1,241 but I locked in profits too far at 1,270 fear of losing the profits and came back to kick me out.

Can't trade Gold everyday gotta wait at key levels such as that 23.6% 1,241
  • #80,148
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:02am Jun 20, 2014 2:02am
if we head south, I'll bid 9340 on some...topside, I'll try shorts at 9446...also see some R at 9418, but I'm gonna pass on it...gl
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #80,149
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:15am Jun 20, 2014 2:15am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I got many stopped outs as well but no harm done. Got one from 23.6% 1,241 but I locked in profits too far at 1,270 fear of losing the profits and came back to kick me out. Can't trade Gold everyday gotta wait at key levels such as that 23.6% 1,241
I think I messed up at profit taking on my GA trade. Was 100+ but now back to B.E. Under normal circumstances I wouldn't be worried but breaking of 1.7 on GU and a the lack of resistance above will likely cause the GA to break further top side. Not too worried though, I will trade the BO if breaks and hopefully gain a few pips. Maybe I need to lower my expectations a bit lol.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,150
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:18am Jun 20, 2014 2:18am
Currently looking for confirmation to short on NU.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,151
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:28am Jun 20, 2014 2:28am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I think I messed up at profit taking on my GA trade. Was 100+ but now back to B.E. Under normal circumstances I wouldn't be worried but breaking of 1.7 on GU and a the lack of resistance above will likely cause the GA to break further top side. Not too worried though, I will trade the BO if breaks and hopefully gain a few pips. Maybe I need to lower my expectations a bit lol.
G/U is showing stronger than A/U is the first sign to bail G/A short.

I keep the fresh E/A short from 1.45x but at BE not sure it it won't come back
  • #80,152
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:38am Jun 20, 2014 2:38am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} G/U is showing stronger than A/U is the first sign to bail G/A short. I keep the fresh E/A short from 1.45x but at BE not sure it it won't come back
Yah waiting to see if there might be a pullback before BO on GA if not will cut it loose on BO point with around 10 pip red. EA has just broken 30min rising TL, end of hour will give more indication imo.

Not sure NU (or AU) is going to break below. Though EU and UJ (Yen) look weak EJ is dropping for possibly more positive AU. I am sidelines atm.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,153
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:43am Jun 20, 2014 2:43am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Not sure NU (or AU) is going to break below..
.... .... lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,154
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:44am Jun 20, 2014 2:44am
E/A is driven by E/U not seeing the sign A/U strength atm

E/U may find support at 1.36
  • #80,155
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:57am Jun 20, 2014 2:57am
Quoting Ken A
E/A is driven by E/U not seeing the sign A/U strength atm E/U may find support at 1.36
I have one scenario where we have seen the new High on the EU and is now heading to a LL, current 4hr candle if it keeps till close (+1hr) will be good indication too.

There has to be AU strength cos we haven't seen a new recent HH as I posted earlier


Quoting albchr
{quote} .... .... lol
lol I wouldn't be worried, I'm sure I have a fan club that hedge against me
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,156
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:07am Jun 20, 2014 3:07am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I have one scenario where we have seen the new High on the EU and is now heading to a LL, current 4hr candle if it keeps till close (+1hr) will be good indication too. There has to be AU strength cos we haven't seen a new recent HH as I posted earlier {quote} lol I wouldn't be worried, I'm sure I have a fan club that hedge against me
E/U on my radar is X although I am short atm

Thing has to go down to go up and vice versa

Attached Image


Edit: bailed +20 pips - Daily open
  • #80,157
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:27am Jun 20, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} E/U on my radar is X although I am short atm Thing has to go down to go up and vice versa {image} Edit: bailed +20 pips - Daily open
Imo if it reaches back to this height it will be close to the weekly/monthly falling TL that was recently broken. This latest move down could then be the pullback from that BO and a retest of the TL could cause the Bulls to come back on board. I know a lot of ppl don't believe these setups on the longer term charts but I have seen (and traded) it many times. EU can be a an odd ball sometimes though. Maybe I will enter a lt long here for that scenario.

EA still hasn't touched my daily falling TL (currently 1.454) and as you say ...got to up before down. If it doesn't touch will create a divergence for a new LL imo.

Looks like NU (and AU) is on BO, I am short (I am actually of average height really).
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,158
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:27am Jun 20, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} lol I wouldn't be worried, I'm sure I have a fan club that hedge against me
Not worried...too much... lol. Does this make me part of that club?
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #80,159
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:42am Jun 20, 2014 3:42am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Not worried...too much... lol. Does this make me part of that club? {image}
I think the presidency is up for grabs?1









1) Commission fees maybe required see attached form for details.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #80,160
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:49am Jun 20, 2014 3:49am
Haha

Don't drink and trade as DUI
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